[DX-NEWS] ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008 ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP08 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8 ARLP008 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 22, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP008 ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers over the past seven days, February 14-20, rose modestly by 27 points to 78.3. Average daily solar flux was up marginally, only 1.6 points to 105.6. Geomagnetic indices rose also, with the planetary A index from 5.6 to 6.4, and the middle latitude A index from 5.1 to 6. This is compared to the previous seven days, February 7-13 reported in last week's bulletin. There was a more substantial rise in both solar flux and sunspot numbers for a recent three days, at 104.7, 112.4 and 113.5 for solar flux, and 92, 117 and 106 for sunspot numbers. But that turned around when the sunspot number dropped from 106 to 75 on Thursday, February 21 and solar flux declined from 113.5 to 108.5. The predicted solar flux is 105 on February 22-23, 100 on February 24, 95 on February 25-26, 100, 105 and 110 on February 27 through March 1, 100 on March 2-3, 95 on March 4-14, 100 on March 15-16, 115 on March 17, and 120 on March 18-20, which represents a peak for the next 45 days. The predicted planetary A index is 8 on February 22, 10 on February 23, 8 on February 24, 5 on February 25-28, 10 and 8 on March 1-2, 5 on March 3-10, 7 on March 11-12, and 5 on March 13-27. Over the next month we can look forward to improving HF conditions as we progress toward the Spring Equinox, which occurs on Wednesday, March 20 at 1102z. Using a propagation prediction program such as W6ELprop gives us a rough idea of what the seasonal improvement might be. Running two instances of the program simultaneously, once for February 21 and the other on March 21, but with the same solar flux (I used 107) allows me to flip back and forth between the results. I did one for Seattle to Japan, and the 15 meter opening from 2200z to 0030z on February 21 shows up as a 2130-0500z opening on March 21. Similarly, a 17 meter opening from 2130-0230z on February 21 stretches to 2030-0500z on March 21. OK1HH predicts the geomagnetic field as quiet to active on February 22, active to disturbed on February 23, mostly quiet February 24-25, quiet on February 26-28, quiet to unsettled March 1, quiet to active March 2, mostly quiet March 3, quiet to unsettled March 4, quiet March 5-6, mostly quiet March 7-8, quiet March 9, and quiet to active March 10. Several news articles, such as http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2013/02/20/NASA-instrument-sees-giant-sunspot-forming/UPI-80691361403797/ and http://www.science20.com/news_articles/giant_sun_spot_size_6_earths_grows_48_hours-104269 mentioned a huge growing sunspot group 1678 that might spit out solar flares. But this spot is way over on the western horizon (yes, the right side is referred to as west on the Sun) and about to slip away from view. It is not geo-effective, which it would be if it appeared in the center of the visible solar disc. Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas (where I was born!) has long enjoyed working 6 meter E-skip and even DX using very modest and even compromised antennas. Jon reported on February 16: Julian, XE2JS DL68 had a nice 6 meter Es opening to the Midwest Saturday evening (February 17 UTC). I worked Julian while I was mobile on highway 40 west of Lawrence, KS EM28 with 58 to 59 signals at 0135 UTC. My 6 meter mobile antenna is a 2 meter 5/8 mag. mount whip (quarter-wave on 6 meters). Saw ZL1RS worked TI5/N5BEK earlier at 2254 UTC February 16. Yes, Jon feeds that 2 meter whip directly on 6 meters, no change in loading or any modification. That distance between him and XE2JS is a little less than 1,000 miles. On February 19, Jon reported: The whip I currently use has a 1.1 to 1 SWR, as-is on 6 meters. Some 2 meter mag antennas don't match well on 6 and may need to be trimmed. ZL1RS later worked KD5PBR, N5DG, NW0W and a few other stations on 6 meters around 0230 UTC on Feb. 17. Likely an Es link on to TEP. (Jon means sporadic-E propagation linked to trans-equatorial propagation. See http://www.ips.gov.au/Category/Educational/Other%20Topics/Radio%20Communication/Transequatorial.pdf or http://www.amateur-radio-wiki.net/index.php?title=Trans-Equatorial_Propagation for info on TEP). On February 21 Jon wrote, Even better, I heard ZL1RS CW on February 20 at 2300 UTC on 50.087 MHz, about a 339 RST. This was on an attic dipole. I am sure I could have worked him with better antenna. Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote on February 17: I had limited time due to working 1700Z-0230Z over the weekend, but found conditions at least on 80, 15 and 10 meters to be excellent during the ARRL CW DX contest. In just a few hours on 80 meters around 0140-0440Z Saturday the February 16 and 0230-0400Z Sunday, I managed to work 270 QSOs and 67 DXCC countries with a 1/4 wave ground plane. Conditions were overall the best to
[DX-NEWS] ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008 ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP08 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8 ARLP008 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 24, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP008 ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA We don't know if this is a significant trend, but solar activity has really leveled off recently. Not everyone is unhappy about this. During the recent long minimum, 160 and 80 meter operators sang the praises of great conditions. In response to my we hope it isn't true (prediction for a low solar cycle) comment in last week's bulletin, Ken Meinken, WA8JXM of Aberdeen, Ohio wrote: Why would that be bad? You are showing your 20-15-10m bias. To those of us who prefer 160/80/40, the lower the sunspots, the better. Personally, I prefer the low part of the sunspot cycle to the peak. Of course I understand that other hams have various different opinions. The average indicators this week were almost exactly the same as last. Average daily sunspot number rose from 55.6 to 55.7. The average daily solar flux declined 2.6 points to 105, and in an unusual coincidence the planetary A index and mid-latitude numbers were the same this week as last, 8 and 6.7. For the numbers at the end of the bulletin, and had to check three times to make sure I hadn't just copied last week's numbers. The geomagnetic activity was concentrated around February 19-20, and was the result of a solar wind stream, causing aurora visible in the lower 48 states. Tim Goeppinger, K6GEP of Orange, California reports an amazing 10 meter aurora opening between the West Coast of the U.S. and Scandinavia last Saturday night, February 18, The latest prediction shows solar flux at 105 on February 24-25, 100 on February 26-29, 105 on March 1, 100 on March 2-4, 105 on March 5-11, 110 on March 12-13, and 115 on March 14-19. The prediction sees planetary A index at 5 on February 24 through March 1, 8 on March 2-3, 5 on March 4-6, 8 on March 7, and 5 on March 8-10. Jeff Harley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote on February 18, 10M has been open to EU most days here recently, but nothing like the Oct-Dec openings. In the PACC Dutch contest last weekend, Dutch stations were worked as early as 1330Z and as late as about 1645Z with the best conditions around 1620-1640Z. I worked a total of about 27 PA-PI stations on 10 meters and 20 was open past 2030Z, but most Dutch stations migrated down to 40 and lower quite early. This weekend was a salt mine weekend, so time was limited in the ARRL CW. I stayed on 20M and worked what I could working about 132 QSOs in 31 countries in about 2-1/2 hours between 0030Z-0315Z. Conditions over the pole were very good, my very first CQ was answered by a BA1 station and BV1EH, 9V1YC, E21EIC and another E21, UN7, two HLs, many JAs, and many zone 18 and 19 Siberian Russians all answered CQs. The increased polar daylight is improving and lengthening the 20M polar openings. The band was open well to the Caribbean at first and Africa and even CS2C in Portugal was worked. Also the big gun OH8's and one LA2 were logged. Saturday morning, 20 was wide open to EU by before sunrise and also open to Zone 17 and 18 in Russia with signals from there having a wicked flutter. Two HS0s called in and signals stayed very strong from EU until around 14Z. Then I checked 10M which was open to areas very unexpected/poorly explainable for a SFI of only 103. UA1AFT running 5W was about S6, another loud RA1, several OHs, SM, OZ, LY, YL, ER, UR were all logged. Some of the best signal were from Poland, but Germany just to the west was marginal as were Gs and ONs. Many OKs and Is were logged, but at times even the Is were somewhat weak. Around 1530, the Balkans big guns S5, 9A, E7DX were S9+. My 10M CQ QSO rate was never very high, but there was fairly steady stream of stations. Signals from the Caribbean farther south than ZF were generally S9+. Thanks, Jeff. Julio, NP3CW wrote: Last night Feb 22, 2012 I was able to contact CP6UA on 50.115 MHz after been looking for him for long time . This is my new one for 124 entities worked. It was a nice contact from FK68wl to FH82ue. It took me nearly 10 yrs to complete all South America Countries. Recently also worked HK0NA on 6 meters, Enrique told me he will soon get a 1 KW amplifier for 6 meters, so maybe more stations can work him in North America. Today Feb 23 2012 many stations heard strong in PR on 6 meters from LU, CX, and PY. Among them were CX1DDO, LU2DPW, PY2LED, CX6DH and PY1RO. CP6UA asked if there are any propagation prediction programs that work for 6 meters. I was pretty sure there are none, but I inquired with Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA for comments. Carl wrote: None of our propagation prediction programs cover 6 meters - they stop at 30 MHz. The reason why is the extremely dynamic nature of the F2 region, which varies widely on a day-to-day basis due to other factors than solar radiation. Thus our understanding of the F2 region is
[DX-NEWS] ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008 ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP08 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8 ARLP008 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 26, 2010 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP008 ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA Two new sunspot groups -- 1050 and 1051 -- appeared on February 23 and 24. We've now seen 38 continuous days with sunspots (including today), and the last time there were no sunspots for two or more days in a row was back on November 23 through December 8 when we saw 16 days with no sunspots. If sunspots continue through Sunday (they will!), February will be the first calendar month since January 2007 with sunspots every day. Until the past few days, the NOAA/USAF forecast showed solar flux dipping below 80 around now, which we have not seen since January 26 through February 5, eleven days when the average sunspot number was 16.2. Note that the average sunspot number reported for the seven days through Wednesday, February 24 was 23, the previous seven days was 38.7 and 43.3 the week before that. The latest forecast (Thursday's, by the time this bulletin is written) at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html shows solar flux at 82 for today, 80 over the weekend, 84 on March 1-4, 85 on March 5-6, and 90 on March 7-13. But the February 22 forecast showed solar flux below 80 beginning yesterday, February 25 through March 2, going as low as 75 on March 1. Solar flux is a rough proxy for sunspot numbers, and is measured with a parabolic dish antenna and a 2.8 GHz receiver tracking the Sun at the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory near Penticton, British Columbia -- about 168 miles (271 km) northeast of Seattle. You can see their daily solar flux data at http://tinyurl.com/ks8tvn. They report the flux values three times per day, but the noon reading at 2000z becomes the official 10.7 cm solar flux reported for the day, and it is shown in the fluxobsflux column. When we see it later from NOAA at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt the value is rounded off to the nearest whole number. For some reason we find solar flux predictions but no forecasts of sunspot numbers. The latest NOAA/USAF forecast shows a small rise in geomagnetic activity, with planetary A index for February 26 through March 5 of 5, 6, 7, 7, 7, 6, 5 and 5. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for February 26-27, February 28 through March 1 active, March 2 unsettled, and March 3-4 quiet. We had many reports on 10 and 12 meter propagation over the past ten days. Jon Jones, N0JK of Wichita, Kansas reported working TX4T (Tahiti, or French Polynesia, same as FO prefix) on 28.49 MHz SSB with 100 watts and a 20 foot high random length wire at 1932z on February 15. The DX station was way over S9. Later he worked KH7Y on the east side of the Big Island of Hawaii, and then Brazil and Argentina. See http://www.qrz.com/db/kh7y for a photo of the KH7Y tower and http://www.qrz.com/db/K5SL for a photo of KH7Y in his shack with visitor K5SL. Click on both photos to enlarge. Jon notes that http://www.fo2010.org/ is a good source for info on the TX4T expedition. In a later email he noted that 10 meters was in great shape for the ARRL DX CW Contest, and he sent a sound clip of another contact with TX4T on 28.012 MHz CW at 2210z on February 21. The sound clip has TX4T blasting through. Ken Bourke, N6UN operates a 10 meter beacon running 5 watts in San Diego. He received his first reports in over a year from Idaho and Louisiana this week, both reporting strong signals. See http://www.n6un.com/. Another 10 meter report came from Charles Lewis, KY4P, who lives in the mountains of Western North Carolina. On February 21 during the contest from 2019-2034z he worked four New Zealand stations on 10 meter CW. They were all S9, and he got them on the first call. The only other DX station he could hear was an Argentine station. Mike Meenan, ND6MM is south of San Francisco and writes, I thought I'd have to wait a couple of years to be working Europe and Africa from here in 6-land with 100 watts and a vertical, but have been doing so consistently for the past two weeks on 15 meters between 1500-1700 UTC. The higher bands have really come alive, and the propagation has been pretty consistent, with some days better than others. I've even logged a couple of new countries (for me) including 7X4AN (Algeria) on CW and SV2CXI (Greece) on SSB. In the afternoon, beginning about 2100, there have been nice openings to the Pacific, which have yielded BX5AA (Taiwan) and 9M6BOB (Sabah, Borneo). 12 and 10 have also had solid, though more sporadic, openings to the Caribbean and South America and later in the day, the Pacific. I have been playing on Internet ham sites through the doldrums of winter, but it's still a thrill to work 'em on good old-fashioned HF! Dick Le Massena, W6KH (W7WVE when I was a kid and he was terrorizing the Pacific Northwest with his QRO hardware) in a
[DX-NEWS] ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008 ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP08 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8 ARLP008 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 20, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP008 ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA On February 11-13 we saw a sunspot, then it was gone. Typical of sunspots recently, it was only seen briefly, and this one was a relic of Cycle 23 according to its magnetic signature. For at least a couple of years now we've been expecting Cycle 23 to bottom out and new Cycle 24 spots to emerge, but the sunspot minimum drags on. Most projections are based on past cycle activity, so according to the timing of past solar minimums, we keep thinking surely soon there will be an explosion of new solar activity, but the Sun seems to tease us. Our recent experiment with a 3-month moving average of sunspot numbers (see Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP006 at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2009-arlp006.html for the latest update) points to August 2008 as the possible solar minimum. If it turns out to be the end of Cycle 23, that would make 23 nearly 12 years long, only a little longer than the less-than-eleven-year average cycle length. Tomas Hood, NW7US has a nice image showing the transition from Cycle 23 to Cycle 24 sunspots at, http://hfradio.org/progress/spotcompare.jpg. I believe the vertical axis represents number of actual sunspots per month, rather than sunspot number, which is entirely different. Tomas Hood's website at http://hfradio.org/ has information on radio propagation, and you can also hear his twangy guitar when you go to that page. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet this week, although February 14-15 saw moderate activity. The middle-latitude Fredericksburg A index was just 9 and 6 on those days, and the Planetary A index was 14 and 10. The high-latitude College A index measured near Fairbanks, Alaska was 25 and 22, indicating possibly disturbed conditions over polar paths. February 16-19 and possibly into today show very stable and quiet indicators, similar to the January 7-8, 11-12, 21-25, and February 1-3, and 6-13 periods. All those ones and zeroes for K and A index tell the story at, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DGD.txt. Geomagnetic conditions should continue to be quiet. NOAA and the U.S. Air Force predict a flat solar flux around 70 for the next month. The predicted Planetary A index for February 20-23 is 8, 12, 8 and 5, continuing at 5 until March 3, when it may rise to 10. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for February 20-26, except for unsettled conditions February 21-22. There were a couple of bugs with some links in last week's Propagation Forecast bulletin ARLP007. The bulletin as displayed on the ARRL web site showed one of the links, mms://max-server.net/2008_vr2bg with the beginning unhighlighted, so when users clicked to try to watch the VR2BG video on OTH radar, they were instead taken to a similar address beginning with http, which does not work. Instead you can highlight the whole URL including the mms beginning, hit Ctrl-C to copy, then open another browser and paste the URL into the web address field by clicking in the field and then hitting Ctrl-V, then the Enter key. At least, this is how it works with Windows machines. Similarly, the http://www.techblog.tomksoft.com/data/duga-3/antennas.jpg link, although correct, caused the server to display an anti-hotlinking error message as it detected the redirect from the ARRL web site. This can be solved like the earlier problem with the mms URL. Just highlight the URL, then copy and paste it into another browser. Works every time. Thanks to George Mackus, AB0RX of Maryland Heights, Missouri for alerting us to the problem. Find more information on the Chain Home Radar system -- Jim Muiter, N6TP, of San Mateo, California, recommended http://www.radarpages.co.uk/mob/ch/chainhome.htm. Greg Andracke, W2BEE of Pine Plains, New York is off to Middle Caicos Island (IOTA NA-002) from March 2-12 as VP5/W2BEE. Greg will be operating CW with just a doublet antenna, and if not on vacation, perhaps he is there to film another documentary. He is a cinematographer (see http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0027996/ and http://www.andracke.com/) and recently I watched his excellent 2007 Academy Award winning documentary via a DVD from my local library. Not sure which HF bands he will be on, but he said he will be operating casually. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations
[DX-NEWS] ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008 ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP08 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8 ARLP008 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 22, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP008 ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA No sunspots yet, and the Sun has been blank for seventeen days. For a week one sunspot was visible prior to the spotless period, and that followed a twenty-day spotless run. NOAA and the US Air Force have predicted daily solar flux right at 70 recently, but bumps that to 72 March 1, continuing into April. This is a minor change, but perhaps this signals that forecasters don't expect any more spots during February. NOAA also predicts low geomagnetic activity until February 28-29, with the planetary A index at 5 through February 26, then 8, 20, 15 and 12 through March 1. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions February 22-26, quiet to unsettled February 27, and unsettled February 28. The days are getting longer, so openings should be longer on the higher frequencies. For instance, from California to Japan on February 1, the 20 meter path would be open 2200-0100z. On the last day of this month the path should be open longer, 2130-0200z, but signals weaker by about 10 db. At the Vernal Equinox on March 20 that opening would stretch from 2100-0400z. 17 meters to Japan on February 1 would have an opening about 2230-z, but at the end of the month would lengthen to 2200-0100z, and signal levels barely lower. By March 20 that 17 meter opening should stretch from 2130-0300z. All of these times and frequencies assume 0 sunspots. Chuck Miller, N6KW noted that on Sunday in the ARRL DX CW Contest he had a good 40 meter opening to Europe from his place in Seattle during daylight, from 2300-z. Stations worked were OK5R, TM9R, IR4X, F8CMF and OM5ZW. From Seattle to Europe last Sunday, this wouldn't be unusual, although signals would be strongest 1-3 hours later. Kevin Seeger, WD0AVV of Corona, California wants assurance that this bulletin will identify Cycle 24 sunspots as they appear, and also needs a method to find out for himself what the polarity is. Yes, we will keep readers informed of new spots and identify them as Cycle 23 or 24. A way to check for yourself is to look at the magnetograms from the SOHO spacecraft at, http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_mag/512/. If you see a sunspot with black on the right side and white on the left, this is a Cycle 23 spot. A Cycle 24 spot will lead with white on the right and black on the left. You can see this by searching the archives for images from early February. Go to, http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/data_query and under image type, select MDI Magnetogram, select the Images option under Display, and enter 2008-02-02 for Start Date, 2008-02-04 for End Date, then click Search. The result will be a series of images of Cycle 23 spots. Randy Wing, N0LD of Rose Hill, Kansas wrote that it is interesting to note that when there were no sunspots, I was working Ducie Island on 10, 12, 15, 20 and 80 meters. Very impressive, but check out his nice antennas at, http://www.qrz.com/n0ld. George Munsch, W5VPQ of San Antonio, Texas had comments about recent 160 and 75 meter discussions. He writes, The 160/75 meter propagation conundrum arises because the F-layer is needed for propagation and the D-layer must be weak or absent to minimize absorption. When both layers are weak or absent during these long stretches of no sunspots, the bands aren't going to be very useful, which has been my observation here in Texas, although domestic long skip on 75 in the mornings has been pretty good. The only problem is that many of the stations heard are in small local cliques who are accustomed to talking among themselves, and don't want to be bothered with contacts to out-of-area 'intruders'. George Coleman, AA4LR of Loganville, Georgia had an interesting observation about this solar activity minimum we are experiencing. He writes, One thing I've noticed that separates this solar minimum from others is the level of the solar flux. Seems like we've had very, very few days of solar flux lower than 70. However, I seem to remember at least from the solar minimum in the 70s and 80s that solar flux got as low as 66, and stayed there for a considerable period of time. I remember listening to WWV over a period of several days, and finding that the solar flux levels were unwavering from 66. I think George is right. Solar flux hovers around 70 or above, but doesn't go down to 66-68 this time. For instance, May 21-30, 1996 the average solar flux was 66.7. The average solar flux for all of September and October 1996 was 69.3. We are cherry-picking the data here, but for the 7 days of July 18-24, 1996 the solar flux was 66.8, 64.9, 66.1, 65.4, 65.1, 66, and 66.7, an average of 65.9. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more
[DX-NEWS] ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008 ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP08 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8 ARLP008 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 24, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP008 ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA More zeroes! A string of zero-sunspot days re-appeared this week, a pattern we'll likely see repeated over the next year, but for longer periods. Average daily sunspot numbers compared to last week dropped nearly two points to 7.1. On February 20 and 21 a gust of solar wind hit Earth, causing a moderate rise in geomagnetic indices and visible aurora way up north. A small coronal hole on our sun's equator was the source. Over the next week don't expect a rise in sunspot numbers. You can take a look at recent numbers, updated daily at, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt. Check http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt for geomagnetic indicators. A solar wind from a coronal hole is expected to cause unsettled conditions for Friday and Saturday, February 24-25. Geophysical Institute Prague expects unsettled conditions for February 24, quiet to unsettled on February 25, quiet February 26-27, and quiet to unsettled on February 28-March 2. We receive a steady stream of mail inquiring about the magnitude of the next solar cycle, and the end of this one. Steve Stutman, KL7JT/1 in the Boston area said he'd heard somewhere that the rise of the next solar cycle should be modest. I poked around, and found this interesting link for solar cycle 24: http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc/cycle24/. With twenty-three recorded sunspot cycles, there isn't a huge amount of data to analyze. And so you can see on this site, various approaches are put forth, which the users believe have worked in the past. I think most of us would prefer Hathaway's prediction, which is the first one listed under Predictions of Cycle 24. We would prefer it, because it is the most optimistic. Don't miss this graphical presentation of data from the current cycle 23: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/. Also, see a nice visualization of all recorded solar cycles at http://wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/historical.shtml. You can see from these graphs why cycle 19 in the late 1950s is recalled with such fondness. I became interested in ham radio as a young boy in 1963, got my license in 1965, and not only was solar activity low during the mid-1960s, but cycle 20 peaking in the late sixties was a real stinker in comparison to the recent one. Of course all of the older hams (just about everyone, since I was 12 at the time) had experienced cycle 19, and I hadn't. My only recollection of cycle 19 was as a small boy in Reedley, California. My father was a biologist, taking a few years off to earn money for school selling insecticide to farmers before returning to Berkeley for his PhD. My dad had a company car, with a long whip antenna on the back connected to a low-VHF business-band FM two-way radio (probably 30-40 MHz). I recall him talking about being unable to raise the head office in Fresno, but someone in Texas was able to relay for him, and something about sunspots. Around that time hams were living it up on 10-meter AM, working the world with low power. We don't have many sunspots now, so the MUF (maximum usable frequency) tends to stay low. But we do have quiet conditions, and the CQ 160-Meter SSB contest this weekend isn't bothered by low MUF. Finally, Cap Cox, W4AMW of Owensboro, Kentucky wrote in about the CW portion of the ARRL International DX Contest, which was last weekend, and conditions in general: Saturday morning around 1000-1200z I worked Japan, Russia, Western Europe and could hear VT and CO all about the same time on 40 Meters. That night I worked Japan and Switzerland on 80. Sunday during the day 20 was open into Europe and Africa all day and even 10 Meters lit up into Central and South America in the early afternoon. I'm running a hundred watts into a Windom. I kept looking at my calendar to make sure it wasn't 2013 already. Wow! Cap goes on to say, I guess it helps to have a couple of thousand operators on all the HF frequencies pushing the ethereal envelope in order to know what conditions are really like under the circumstances. I can get by with 'poor' bottom of the cycle conditions like these for a long time, maybe even until the next 'peak' arrives. Thanks, Cap. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Sunspot numbers for February 16 through 22 were 27, 23, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with a mean of 7.1. 10.7 cm flux was 79.2, 79.2, 78.5, 76.5, 76.2, 75.9, and 76, with a mean of 77.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4,
[DX-News] ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008 ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP08 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8 ARLP008 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 20, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP008 ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers were down a little this week (compared to last week) and so were the daily solar flux numbers. The average daily Planetary A index was slightly higher. Geomagnetic indices settled down this week on February 16-19 to yield some nice conditions on HF. There weren't many sunspots, so the MUF wasn't as high as several years ago, but the quiet conditions are a nice respite from the stormy geomagnetic conditions of late. The quiet conditions should continue though this weekend, which is good news for contesters who will participate in the ARRL International DX CW Contest. The predicted Planetary A index for Friday through Monday, February 20-23 is 10, 10, 12 and 12. Solar flux is expected to stay below 100 until around Leap Year Day, February 29. Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA has an interesting article in the March issue of WorldRadio about low band propagation during the solar minimum. He tested the theory that 160-meters is better during the low part of the solar cycle, and proposes that what helps the lower frequencies is not really an absence of sunspots, but quieter geomagnetic conditions. Because solar activity is lower during the years around the solar minimum, there is less chance of flares or coronal holes upsetting the geomagnetic field. A disturbed geomagnetic field can severely affect signals passing through high latitudes. He found that stations situated where they can propagate signals to their destination without passing through the high latitude auroral zone may have a great advantage during periods of greater solar activity. For instance, K9LA's path to Europe is a polar path, and so he is affected by polar absorption when the K index is high. He compared notes with W8JI in Georgia, whose paths to most major ham populations stays outside the auroral zone, and the Georgia station can work much more 160-meter DX during the cycle peak than K9LA can. For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the Propagation page on the ARRL Web site at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for February 12 through 18 were 65, 71, 64, 75, 81, 22 and 23 with a mean of 57.3. 10.7 cm flux was 112.2, 107.8, 103.7, 102.1, 98.7, 101.9 and 97.7, with a mean of 103.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 28, 21, 18, 18, 7, 5 and 8, with a mean of 15. /EX -- Subscribe/unsubscribe, feedback, FAQ, problems, etc DX-NEWS http://njdxa.org/dx-news DX-CHAT: http://njdxa.org/dx-chat To post a message, DX NEWS items only, [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news%40njdxa.org --
