[DX-NEWS] ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP33 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 16, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA Again this week, solar activity was unchanged, with average daily sunspot numbers slipping from 85.4 to 85, and average daily solar flux increasing 4.4 points to 111.7. Geomagnetic conditions were stable. The latest solar flux prediction from USAF/NOAA has flux values of 125 on August 16, 130 on August 17-18, 120 on August 19-20, 110 on August 21-23, 105 on August 24, 110 on August 25-26, 115 on August 27-29, 110 on August 30, 105 on August 31 through September 6, then 110 and 115 on September 7-8 and 120 on September 9-11. Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on August 16-17, 5 on August 18-19, then 12 and 15 on August 20-21, 8 on August 22-23, 5 on August 24-30, then 12, 15, and 10 on August 31 through September 2, and 5 on September 3-7. OK1HH issues his own weekly geomagnetic activity forecast, and he sees mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions August 16-17, quiet to active August 18, quiet on August 19, mostly quiet August 20, quiet August 21, active to disturbed August 22, quiet to unsettled August 23, quiet to active August 24, quiet to unsettled August 25-28, quiet August 29-30, active to disturbed September 1, quiet to unsettled September 2, quiet on September 3-5, mostly quiet September 6-8, active to disturbed September 9, quiet to active September 10, and active to disturbed September 11. OK1HH says a positive storm phase is expected August 22, and a growing solar wind may cause remarkable changes in the magnetosphere and ionosphere on August 16, and 21-22, and September 1-2, 6-7, and 11. At 0318 UTC on August 16, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning, saying a high speed wind stream is spewing from a coronal hole. Unsettled to active geomagnetic levels are expected today, August 16, and minor storm levels are possible. Scientific American has a 60 second podcast explaining why the changing magnetic polarity of the sun is nothing to worry about. Listen at http://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode.cfm?id=solar-magnetic-field-flip-poses-no-13-08-15. We get our solar flux data directly from the observatory in Penticton, British Columbia where they measure and report the numbers. It has been available at ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/daily_flux_values/fluxtable.txt but this week that server seemed unreachable. I poked around for quite some time and finally found the same data in html rather than plain text format at http://www.spaceweather.ca/data-donnee/sol_flux/sx-5-flux-eng.php. Al Kaiser, N1API of Meriden, Connecticut asked, If you have two flares at the same time from two different sunspot areas on the sun, do they add up to give a bigger class of flare, or just end up as one longer event? They are counted and rated separately. And if the flares are on different areas of the sun, they are probably pointing in different directions, so one or both might not affect earth. Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington has long been fascinated by the idea that the current solar cycle 24 may turn out to have two peaks, like the last few cycles. He writes, There have been several predictions that cycle 24 might have a second peak. Well maybe - maybe not. Cycle 21 had a definite single peak: November of 1979. Cycle 22 had two peaks: September of 1989 and January of 1991. Cycle 23 also had two peaks: April/July of 2000 and December of 2001. K9LA presented some interesting analysis regarding the declining magnetic strength of sunspots since 1995 and especially cycle 24. See http://myplace.frontier.com/%7ek9la/Looking_Ahead_To_Solar_Cycle_25.pdf Randy continues, Anyone who brings up a NASA photo of sunspots during Cycle 21-23 will see many large magnetically complex sunspots vs. Cycle 24's 'freckles' of small magnetically simple spots. So we MAY see a second peak IF the magnetic strength of the sunspots holds, or better yet increases. If not, a second peak is doubtful, and chances are the peak of activity has passed (as defined by the average monthly solar flux and average monthly sunspot count). The Sun is always full of surprises. During the CQWW Contest of October 2003 the solar flux punched up to 290! Ah, Randy, wouldn't that be nice to see again! In fact, your current author's stewardship of this bulletin began in 1991, not because of any particular expertise regarding astrophysics, but due to a similar sudden burst of solar activity, which happened to coincide with the former (and only other) author of this bulletin becoming too ill to write (see http://oldqslcards.com/W1HDQ.pdf). The event was Thursday, January 31, 1991 when the solar flux reached 357. Someone needed to write about this. I had no idea when I alerted folks in Newington that it would be me. For more information
[DX-NEWS] ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP34 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 17, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA There was a big drop in solar activity over the past week, with the average daily sunspot numbers declining nearly 42 points to 77.6, and average daily solar flux down 20 points to 114.7. Solar flux has dropped below 100, where it is expected to remain through August 22. NOAA/USAF predicted solar flux on August 16 and 17 at 100, but it was actually 98.3 on August 16. The prediction for August 18 is 95, then 90 on August 19-22, then 100, 120 and 130 on August 23-25, then 135 on August 26-29. It is expected to drop below 100 again on September 12-15. This is almost exactly the forecast that was in the ARRL Letter on Thursday, with the August 23-24 sunspot numbers dropped by five points on each day. Predicted planetary A index is 10 on August 17, 14 on August 18, 12 on August 19-20, then 8 on August 21, 5 on August 22-23, 8 on August 24-25, 12 on August 26, followed by 5 on August 27 through September 7, then 8 on September 8-10, and 5 on September 11-14. This is identical to the forecast in Thursday's ARRL Letter. The weekly prediction of geomagnetic indicators from OK1HH says to watch for quiet to unsettled conditions August 17-20, mostly quiet August 21, quiet on August 22-24, quiet to active August 25-26, mostly quiet August 27-28, active to disturbed August 29-30, and quiet again on August 31 through September 1. Many readers have commented that the short term view of the solar cycle has a recent peak around Fall 2011, yet predictions still focus on Spring 2013 for the peak of Cycle 24. It is interesting to look back over the past two solar rotations, which is 55 days, and see an average compared with the same 55 days last year, June 23 through August 16. The average daily sunspot numbers for those dates in 2009-2012 are 3.3, 26.5, 61.2, and 91.6. If we want to look at last Fall's peak we can cherry pick the data, and chose the 55 day period of November 7 through December 31, 2011. The average daily sunspot number then was 119.3, about 30% higher than current values. This week N7QR, Russ Mickiewicz, of Portland, Oregon (and later reader David Moore, and others) sent information on a new method for predicting solar flares, by tracking decay rates in gamma radiation from radioactive elements. Read about it at http://phys.org/news/2012-08-solar-flares-advance.html. Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington offered some opinions on future solar activity and propagation. He writes, Reading K9LA's excellent article in QST this past July, the graph on the cover pretty well confirms the good HF propagation bestowed on DXers for now, and if one 'connects the dots' the HF propagation following the years after the peak (sometime in 2013) will be considerably different from what we all have experienced in the past 30+ years. Cycles 21, 22 and 23 were good strong normal sunspot cycles. As we all can conclude from the numerous forecasts, Cycle 24 will be a very low one. There will be much lower highs to drop from once the decline begins, and the low point of Cycle 24 will occur much sooner, unlike the many years of previous cycles where solar activity declined from solar flux values of 200+. Carl is right. Enjoy and make the most of propagation now. Once the cycle turns, everyone will be surprised at the swiftness of the decline of high band propagation. George Kutcher, K3GWK of Jenkinsburg, Georgia mentioned that There is a simple sunspot data app for the iPhone, iPad and iPod Touch. The app is called 'Sunspot' by AMI Mobile. There is a cost for the app. 'Sunspot' is a simple application to display 3-hour WWV space weather and NOAA sunspot data on your iPhone, etc. Data is updateable on demand, as well as current trending from the previous data set. Brendan Wahl, WA7HL of Bisbee, Arizona likes the N0HR Propfire program for the Firefox web browser. It displays the geophysical and solar data that WWV transmits at 18 minutes after each hour, and can also display sunspot number. You can get it for free at, http://www.n0hr.com/Propfire.htm. N0AX reports that DX Sherlock has a new URL at, http://www.dxmaps.com/. Turns out our Sun is not perfectly round. Check it out at http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-205_162-57494899/the-suns-strange-shape-revealed/. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good information and tutorials on propagation at
[DX-NEWS] ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP33 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 19, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity was down again this week, and the sunspot number on Sunday, August 14, went all the way to zero, for the first time since January 27, which was 29 weeks ago. Average daily sunspot numbers declined nearly 50 points, to 25.6, and average daily solar flux was down nearly 16 points to 88.5. The latest prediction from NOAA/USAF on August 18 has solar flux at 98 on August 19, 100 on August 20-22, 105 on August 23-25, then 110 and 115, on August 26-27, then 110 on August 28-31. Solar flux is expected to bottom out at 90 on September 8-12. Predicted planetary A index is 5 on August 19-20, 8 and 12 on August 21-22, 5 on August 23-25, 10, 10 and 8 on August 26-28, and 5 again on August 29 to September 2. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions on August 19-20, unsettled August 21, quiet to unsettled August 22-24, and quiet again on August 25. Thanks to Max White, M0VNG of Worcester, England for sending along this story from NASA, Solar Flares: What does it take to be X-class? http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/X-class-flares.html Max and several other readers, including Douglas Schauer sent in some articles about using helioseismology to predict the appearance of sunspots. See http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/08/18/BAER1KNIRO.DTL , http://www.space.com/12668-sunspot-prediction-solar-storms-warning.html, http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_18711817, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=sunspot-early-detection and http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44193066/ns/technology_and_science-space/#.Tk5RkmMdzZI. One of the best articles on this subject is from astronomer Phil Plait's blog. Read it at http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/08/19/scientists-see-sunspots-forming-6-km-below-the-suns-surface/. Also, don't miss this video about coronal mass ejections tracked by STEREO craft, posted by Tomas Hood, NW7US, Propagation Editor at CQ Magazine: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVD3OnigFFE Brad Miskimen, N5LUL of Amarillo, Texas was in the Ten-Ten International QSO Party (a ten meter phone contest) on the evening of August 5 working stations in Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Delaware and North Caroline, most S9, and some as much as 40 db over S9, when suddenly at 0244z, the door slammed shut. I have never seen/heard everyone disappear within 10 seconds. But that's what I experienced. Total silence! If we check http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DGD.txt we see that geomagnetic indices show a great deal of activity right around that time, with the planetary K index reaching 8, just one point below the maximum K index, which is 9. Checking http://www.spaceweather.com for that day and the next (use the archives feature in the upper right) shows that a CME strike on August 5 sparked one of the strongest geomagnetic storms in years. Dan Soderlund, KB0EO of Northfield, Minnesota wrote, I was operating off and on all day Saturday August 13 on 17 meters. Late in the afternoon (around 2200 UTC), I had my antenna pointed toward Europe and was working hams in western EU. All of a sudden, I started getting JAs calling off the back of the antenna. I turned the antenna toward JA and made about 40 QSOs with Japan - all stations at least S6 and most were S9 plus. This lasted for about an hour and then the propagation just vanished. The interesting thing was propagation was equally good to EU and JA simultaneously, covering 2/3 of the earth for an hour. Of course, propagation varies seasonally, and a small amount from day to day and week to week, but it looks like having propagation to Europe and Asia from Dan's location is not uncommon. I averaged the sunspot number for August 11-13 (32), and ran W6ELprop from Dan's QTH (44.45 N. 93.3 W) to Japan and it shows good signals on 17 meters from 2030-0230z. Doing the same for England shows about 10 db louder than Japan, but a rating showing less chance of propagation over that path. It shows a very good path from 1630-2030z, but after that it changes to a C rating, which means 25-50% chance instead of 50-75%, which is what it shows to Japan. Germany and Czech Republic don't look as good during that period. It seems that propagation would be best from Western Europe, and the further west, the better. Pat Hamel, W5THT of Long Beach, Mississippi is active with an experimental license on 500 KHz. He says that signals from Mississippi and Louisiana were copied in Alaska around 2011z on August 12 by Laurence Howell, KL7UK near Wasilla. Read more about the 600 meter project at http://www.500kc.com . If you will be in or near Estes Park, Colorado on the evening of Thursday, August 25, you can attend a lecture on sunspots and solar cycles
[DX-NEWS] ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP33 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 20, 2010 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA Thanks so much to Tomas Hood, NW7US, who wrote last week's bulletin while K7RA was in California at dance camp. Tomas writes the weekly propagation column for CQ magazine, and he has an excellent web site devoted to propagation at http://prop.hfradio.org/. Tomas mentioned in last week's bulletin that the August 11 sunspot number of 66 is the highest recorded for cycle 24, but actually there were higher values recorded on May 4-5, when the sunspot number was 70 and 77, as you can see at http://snipurl.com/10qez7. See values from the current quarter at http://snipurl.com/10qezi. To see higher sunspot numbers, we must look back to the downward slide of cycle 23 on April 12, 2006 when the sunspot number was 79. The 2006 data is at http://snipurl.com/10qf0o. Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined this week, with average daily sunspot numbers down nearly 17 points to 36.1, and average daily solar flux down 1 point to 83.5. In the previous week, average daily sunspot numbers had risen nearly 33 points to 53. New sunspot groups appeared on August 11, 13 and 16, but on Tuesday and Wednesday (August 17-18), total sunspot area was one-fifth what it was on August 16, less than one-seventh the area on August 14, and less than one-fourteenth the area of August 12. On August 12, 14, 16 and 18 the daily sunspot number was 50, 31, 39 and 23, and on August 19 it was 11, which is the minimum non-zero sunspot number. Projections for solar flux over the next ten days, August 20-29, are 78, 78, 77, 77, 79, 80, 82, 84, 82, and 81. Predictions for planetary A index over those same days are 5 on August 20-23, 6 on August 24, 12 on August 25-26, and 5 on August 27-29. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for August 20-22, quiet to unsettled August 23, and unsettled August 24-26. Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA has a new propagation column out today in WorldRadio online. See it on pages 24-26 at http://snipurl.com/10qfq5. Greg Andracke, W2BEE of Pine Plains, New York says he will visit Saint Vincent and the Grenadines in the Caribbean in mid-December, and wants to know what night time propagation might be like on 20 and 30 meters. Running some numbers with W6ELprop shows that the local sunset time is 2138z on December 15. Propagation back to anywhere in the USA doesn't look promising after dark, but paths to South Africa and South America look good. Thanks to David Moore of Morro Bay, California and Mark Downing, WM7D for sending a couple of articles on a possible explanation for weak solar activity. The articles are at http://snipurl.com/10qg15 and http://snipurl.com/10qg1a. Bob Forsman, WK5X of Stuart's Draft, Virginia commented about an item in the August 6 bulletin, ARLP031. KA3JAW's reception of Channel 2 from Ontario probably had nothing to do with the CME. It's likely just garden-variety late-season sporadic-E, in my opinion; and I'm pretty sure that you realize this also. 1300 miles is close to the maximum distance possible via single-hop, but it isn't terribly unusual. The MUF of the e-layer was likely around 58-60 MHz at the mid-point. Dean Lewis, W9WGV of Palatine, Illinois wrote While I realize this is old news, it might at least be worth the perspective. Being used to 20/30/40 meter propagation, I didn't have any particular appreciation for contacts I'd made on 6 meters. Having just purchased a new Icom 703, I thought I'd give it a try on 6 during the June VHF QSO Party. Without a 6M antenna, I managed to tune up my 66 ft. end-fed 40 meter wire through a short length of coax as something of an off-center resonant feedline dipole (??!). From our QTH 25 miles northwest of Chicago, I worked 11 states with the 703's 10W (CW) output: AL, FL, GA, IL, MA, MS, NH, SD, TX, UT, and WI. (I QSL 100, with an SASE; the return cards have all arrived.) Family events over the weekend limited my air time; I could have done more, I'm sure. Oh; and BTW, the antenna is indoors (typical townhouse CCR's). Now I understand why they call it 'magic'. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good information and tutorials on propagation at http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email
[DX-NEWS] ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP33 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 14, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA Another quiet week on the Sun. Last week on Earth we neglected to mention the Perseids meteor shower, which peaked this week on August 12-13. A nice statistical display from the International Meteor Organization is at http://www.imo.net/live/perseids2009/. A look at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html on August 13 showed possible heightened geomagnetic activity returning around August 18-19, with a planetary A index of 20 and 12, respectively. Geophysical Institute Prague expects quiet conditions August 14, unsettled August 15, quiet August 16-17, unsettled August 18, quiet to unsettled for August 19 and quiet on August 20 The predicted planetary A index from the Space Weather Prediction Center for those same dates is 5, 5, 5, 5, 20, 12 and 8. Check the link in the previous paragraph to see if the forecast changes and is updated. The autumnal equinox is less than 40 days from now, to occur on September 22 at 2118z. Even if there are no sunspots, we should see a shift and seasonal improvement compared to summer. Comparing the first day of fall to mid-July, 20 meter conditions from New England to the Czech Republic shows an end to openings during the evening on the USA end, and daytime openings shifting to earlier hours. The July 20 meter opening from 1930-0200z shifts to 1330-2200z in September. 17 meters shows very little chance of propagation over the same path in summer, but in fall opens 1330z to 1900z. A similar shift occurs on the West Coast. From California to Japan, in summer the 20 meter opening is in local nighttime at the W6 end, strongest 0630-1030z. In the fall it happens earlier, 2200-0330z. On 17 meters over the same path, signals are much stronger in the fall, with openings around 2200-0230z. Jim Spears, N1NK of Tiverton, Rhode Island, wrote to comment on the current sporadic-E season, which he noted should be winding down. Jim says he hasn't seen much sporadic-e activity, and checked six meters most days, but June was very good for him into Europe. Jim wrote, ''With a 5 element Yagi at 40 feet and THP 1.5Kfx amp I improved my distance record to the east by working 4X4DK, DK1MAX, and OE5D as new ones. A number of other new ones in EU (mostly southern) and Caribbean along with 8R1TO and PV8ADI in South America were also worked leaving me with a current total of 73 worked and 67 confirmed, all via Es. I also failed to work any west coast US stations, something that has been a regular occurrence the past few years''. Jim noted that July was extremely wet and stormy in New England, and doesn't know if this is coincidental, but he saw little six meter propagation to anywhere. ''It seemed that the propagation was completely skipping over or bypassing us. There were very few moments when I would hear any signal on the band at all''. In an email Jim received from Mick, W1JJ, also in Rhode Island, but with a better antenna system, the 6 meter E season was about average for Mick, who has been active on 6 meters for 50 years. He worked 3 new countries, bringing his 6 meter total to 186. Mick says openings were slow in May, much better in June, but he had only a couple of good openings to Europe. In July he worked 4X4, SV, SV9, SV5, OD, TZ and TA. To the west, he had a couple of good openings to W6 and one to KH6. He sent along an audio file of JA7QVI on six meters, who was quite loud, and the only JA he worked in the past couple of years. Mick worked him at 2258z on July 8. In the Six Meters Marathon he totaled 94 countries from the first week in May through August 3. Pat Dyer, WA5IYX of San Antonio, Texas wrote about digital television vs. the old analog system and its usefulness as an indicator of VHF propagation. ''Some have had much more luck than myself at decoding DTV via Es, but here are two samples of my best, http://www.qsl.net/wa5iyx/images/wbra-dt-3.1z.jpg (1187 mi) and http://www.qsl.net/wa5iyx/images/whbf-dt-4.1z.jpg (950 mi)''. ''A vivid example of what was available on low-VHF TV for Es from here vs. now on DTV is shown on these maps http://www.qsl.net/wa5iyx/lovesavd.htm. A prime problem in getting DTV Es decoded stems from the system's intolerance for co-channel signals (unless one is dominant by 15 db). Many a time the 54.310 MHz DTV pilots can be heard on my FT-847 as a mixture of signals with a 4-Hz beat rate (note how many US DTV Ch 2 stations are to my NW-N, and can come in simultaneously). Ch 5, with the most US DTV stations of any low- VHF channel, has been occupied by ''local'' KCWX-DT-5 (23kw ERP at c. 50 mi) since Jul 1. Rapid QSB and multipath (ghosting common on Es) also contribute to complicating any decodes. Also, unlike with NTSC, the entire 6-MHz wide channel of data needs to be
[DX-NEWS] ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP33 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 8, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA As mentioned in last week's Bulletin, Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, is filling in for your regular reporter Tad Cook, K7RA. For the reporting period August 1 through August 7, solar activity was at very low levels and the geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next several days. As for geomagnetic field activity, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning on August 6 for quiet to unsettled and then unsettled to active conditions (with possible minor storm periods) on August 8 and August 9, respectively. Other than a new-cycle magnetic dipole on August 3 that didn't turn into a sunspot region, the Sun was again blank for the entire reporting period. Kind of sounds like a recording, doesn't it? A good summary is: Here we sit at solar min Wondering when Cycle 24 will begin It seems like we've been at solar minimum forever. In fact, there have been several news releases hinting that this solar minimum period between Cycle 23 and 24 is unusual. The analysis of recent spotless days compared to historical spotless days (see science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/11jul_solarcycleupdate.htm) led Dr. David Hathaway (NASA solar physicist) to conclude that nothing is unusual about this solar minimum period. Another way to look at solar minimum is to look at the duration when the smoothed sunspot number is below 20. Historically this duration has ranged from a short 17 months to a long 96 months, with an average of 37 months. Cycle 23 descended below 20 in February 2006, and Cycle 24 is predicted to ascend above 20 in early 2009. That's around 36 months, so everything appears to be pretty normal so far and agrees with Dr. Hathaway's conclusion. We'll just have to be patient until Cycle 24 starts ramping up. The good news is that we have seen three sunspot regions tied to Cycle 24 (January 4, April 13, and May 5), so it's coming. What can you do around solar minimum? One activity would be to get on the low bands for the Fall/Winter season - the low bands should be very good. Another activity would be to take advantage of summer sporadic E (and in December, too, but it's not as prevalent). For example, last weekend provided some excellent 6 Meter propagation. And participants (your author included) in the CW running of the North American QSO Party (sponsored by the National Contest Journal) enjoyed 10 Meter and 15 Meter sporadic E openings (which likely happens a lot more than we think - a dead band may not be dead, just unoccupied). And since mid latitude sporadic E is not tied to sunspots, we can have fun throughout an entire solar cycle. Speaking of sporadic E, last week's Bulletin reported N4KZ working EA8/DL6FAW on 6m on both CW and SSB. This brought a reply from Norbert Scherer, DL6FAW. Norbert reports that he's been operating on 2m for many years, but his 6m activity is relatively new. Since 2006 he has been running 100W to a simple 5-element Yagi when in Spain. Norbert continues: ''In the first weeks I only heard North America in the middle of the day. I never expected any opening after midnight local time. But by carefully monitoring the beacons I was surprised to hear, for example, WZ8D/B late in the evening. Sometimes I started to call CQ and there was no reply at all. The following day, when I heard the beacon again and nothing else, there were ten people calling at the same time. Tim, KY5R, told me last week that I was the only signal on the band he could hear. I hope there will be more good propagation to NA in the coming weeks, although the sunspot number is Zero! I checked out some websites listing solar activity, sunspot number, K-index, solar winds, etc. for July 2008. But I couldn't find any correlation between the data provided there and my log.'' DL6FAW's attempt to correlate 6m Es to sunspots came out as expected - as stated earlier, there doesn't appear to be any tie between where we are in a sunspot cycle and the occurrence of mid latitude sporadic E. Finally, in last week's Bulletin Jim Henderson, KF7E, provided some good observations and comments about the day-to-day variability of the ionosphere. A good supporting example of his observations is the F2 region MUF over the Millstone Hill ionosonde (in Massachusetts), assuming it's the mid point of a 3000 km hop. In July, when the solar flux was for all intents and purposes constant, the 3000 km MUF varied from a low of 8.9 MHz to a high of 19.6 MHz. KF7E's comments, along with the Millstone Hill data, are in agreement with ionospheric studies showing that although solar radiation is the instigator of the ionization process, two other factors appear to be more significant in determining what the F2
[DX-NEWS] ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP33 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 10, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers were up a little, rising over five points to 12.4. After a short period of no sunspots, we are back to seeing a spot or two every day. Expect these conditions to continue, possibly falling back to zero spots again around August 16-20. Today (August 10) expect some unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions due to a solar wind stream. Planetary A index predicted for August 10-16 is 25, 15, 5, 5, 5, 5 and 10. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled to active conditions August 10, quiet to unsettled August 11, quiet August 12-14, quiet to unsettled August 15, and unsettled August 16. New predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers in coming months seem to appear almost monthly from the Space Environment Center. Now the estimate for smoothed sunspot number in December 2007 has risen from 21 to 24. You can see the prediction from last month at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1661.pdf and the current one at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1666.pdf . Look on page nine of both issues. Bob Wertz, NF7E was operating in Alaska last month, and wrote asking about some strange conditions he observed on the air. ''Recently while on a mini DXpedition on Ushagat Island, located off the coast of Homer, Alaska, we encountered some strange lulls in operating. ''We landed on the island on July 12, and after about 3 hours, we were on the air and doing great. Then on the following few days, we almost lost all communications with the world. At first we thought it was rig problems, then antenna problems, but then realized it must be poor propagation. ''Can you give me some input about conditions those days?'' Yes, we can. Looking at data from the magnetometer at University of Alaska, we see that the A index (called the College A index) on July 11-16 was 32, 10, 2, 39, 19 and 7. The cause was solar wind, and the disturbance tends to concentrate toward the poles, so the absorption in Alaska from this activity can lead you to believe your radio is dead. Folks operating at high latitudes have had a respite from this activity because during a lull in the solar cycle, the chance of geomagnetic storms is much less. But old Alaska hands will tell you of times in years past when geomagnetic storms seemed to last for months, and HF was mostly unusable. That is the downside of higher solar activity. We like sunspots, because of the accompanying increase in reflection and refraction in the ionosphere. But along with that comes greater chance of geomagnetic storms. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for August 2 through 8 were 0, 11, 11, 11, 16, 13 and 25 with a mean of 12.4. 10.7 cm flux was 69.4, 70.4, 69.4, 68.9, 70, 69, and 69, with a mean of 69.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 2, 2, 12, 23 and 6 with a mean of 7.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 4, 0, 2, 8, 23 and 5, with a mean of 6.7. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP33 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 5, 2005 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers rose over 68 points this week to 83.7, when compared to last week's numbers. Note this is four weeks after the recent large number of sunspots around the beginning of July, which corresponds to the rotation of the sun relative to Earth. That area of the sun is now back in view, but with sunspots diminished. The reporting week began with heightened geomagnetic activity on July 28, but it quieted down. Prediction for the next few days is for solar flux to remain above 100, which is expected until August 10. Current geomagnetic conditions are slightly unsettled, but after August 10 are predicted to be quiet. Barring any unexpected solar flare, expect good conditions, at least relative to recent HF propagation at this lower spot on the solar cycle. Also note that the Northern Hemisphere is about half way between the longest day of the year and the fall equinox, and fall is good for HF propagation. July ended this week, so now is a good time to look at monthly averages to see if we can spot trends. What we see is a tremendous variation from month-to-month, with a rise in average sunspot and solar flux numbers for July, due to the unusually large number of sunspots early in the month. The average daily sunspot numbers for the months October 2004 through July 2005 were 77.9, 70.5, 34.7, 52, 45.4, 41, 41.5, 65.4, 59.8 and 68.7. Average daily solar flux for the same months was 106, 113.7, 95, 102.3, 97.2, 89.9, 85.9, 99.5, 93.7 and 96.5. Looked at in isolation, the numbers since early 2005 almost suggest a rising solar cycle. The overall trend for the remainder of this sunspot cycle will be down, and it becomes more obvious when we average the numbers over a long period. Currently we are looking to reach solar minimum around the end of 2006. Our bulletin has reported this for some time now, and this is based on the table of predicted smoothed sunspot numbers that appears occasionally in the back of the weekly Preliminary Report and Forecast from NOAA Space Environment Center, found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/index.html. This week's copy number 1561 at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1561.pdf contains that table, but I noticed that looking back over the past few years shows the predicted values out to the end of 2007, just as it does today. Look at this table for predicted smoothed sunspot numbers from four years ago, in August 2001, and compare it to the table in the latest issue noted above: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf2001/prf1354.pdf Even back in 2001 the predicted low numbers for the end of next year were the same as today's prediction. What changed are the predicted numbers for a few months from now, which are higher than predicted four years ago, and of course the actual smoothed numbers for all that time in between differ also. We must go back to 2000 to find tables that end earlier than 2007. Here is one from August 2000 which ends in 2005: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf2000/prf1301.pdf Until I rechecked this, I thought the table was perhaps updated yearly, with another year in the future added on. I have a question in to the NOAA Space Environment Center about this, plus another question about the July 18 report of a sunspot number of -1 that we covered recently. Perhaps next week's bulletin will have more on this. Vic Woodling, WB4SLM wrote about recent VHF DX, but on the FM broadcast band, about half way between our own six and two meter bands. Vic's girlfriend lives near Haysville, North Carolina, in grid square EM85, and around noon local time on Tuesday, August 2 she heard KRKX in Billings, Montana on 94.1 MHz on her car radio. The strong signal was full-quieting, and the KRXK transmitter site is in grid square DN55, a little less than 1500 miles away. If you would like to comment or have a tip, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. An archive of past bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Sunspot numbers for July 28 through August 3 were 29, 69, 62, 110, 102, 112 and 102 with a mean of 83.7. 10.7 cm flux was 95.8, 103.7, 105, 109.7, 111.2, 110.2 and 108.9, with a mean of 106.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 28, 19, 16, 9, 16, 12 and 11 with a mean of 15.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 18, 14, 11, 10, 18, 9 and 6, with a mean of 12.3. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website:
[DX-NEWS] ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP33 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 13, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP033 ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA Big sunspot 649 rotated back into view this week, and sunspot and solar flux numbers are up. The average daily sunspot number for this week (August 5-11) rose over 35 points (from the previous week) to 77.9, and average daily solar flux was up over 18 points to 106.5. There were no large geomagnetic events, only some periods of unsettled to active conditions. Sunspot 649 is currently in the center of the visible solar disk, pointed straight toward earth. It is a possible source of solar flares over the next few days. Solar flux is expected to rise over the weekend, peaking below 170 from August 15-17. The Prague Geophysical Institute predicts unsettled geomagnetic conditions for August 13, unsettled to active conditions for August 14, and quiet to unsettled conditions for August 15-16. A solar cycle prediction released from NOAA SESC this week still shows the current cycle bottoming out around the end of 2006 and the start of 2007. It shows the lowest sunspot numbers from December 2006 to January 2007, and the lowest solar flux values from September 2006 through April 2007. For the start of the next cycle, the prediction goes out as far as December 2007 with a predicted smoothed sunspot number of 21, which is around the same value predicted for January-February 2005. So with the cycle declining, their guess is that sunspot activity shouldn't return to the level of early 2005 until the end of 2007. This suggests that activity won't return to our current levels until some time in 2008, although it is important to remember that activity in the rising part of the cycle increases more rapidly than it declines on the down side of the cycle. Thomas Giella, KN4LF, wrote to announce a new email listserver for propagation discussions hosted by http://www.contesting.com. You can sign up on the web at, http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation, or subscribe by sending an email with the word subscribe in the message body or subject line to, [EMAIL PROTECTED] Reader David Moore sent the following URL, http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=14806, which links to an article about research into the injection of solar wind plasma into the earth's magnetic field. For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for August 5 through 11 were 36, 52, 71, 77, 101, 93 and 115 with a mean of 77.9. 10.7 cm flux was 88.9, 91, 94.6, 104.8, 113.9, 121.4 and 130.8, with a mean of 106.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 7, 20, 5, 13, 14 and 13, with a mean of 11.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 3, 11, 2, 12, 12 and 10, with a mean of 7.9. /EX -- To post a message the subject must begin with [:dx-news:] (all lower case) and sent to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED] --
