SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052
ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
ZCZC AP52
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 23, 2011
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP052
ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
Average daily sunspot numbers this week were about the same as last,
and average daily solar flux declined a little over eight points to
128.9. Geomagnetic indicators were quiet. Average daily sunspot
numbers of 95.3 for the week is considerably below the average for
the previous 90 days, which was 120.8.
Solar flux has been climbing over the past week, after a low of
119.6 on December 17. Predicted flux values for the near term are
145 on December 23, 140 on December 24-27, 145 on December 28-30,
dropping suddenly to 120 on December 31 through January 2, 125 on
January 3-4, 128 on January 5-8, and peaking at 130 on January 9-17.
Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 23 through January 4, 8
on January 5-6, and 5 on January 7-21. This is from NOAA and the
U.S. Air Force Space Weather Operations.
There is another opinion, of course. Geophysical Institute Prague
predicts quiet conditions December 23, quiet to unsettled December
24, active conditions December 25, unsettled to active December 26,
quiet to unsettled December 27, and quiet again on December 28-29.
Active conditions is quite different from an A index of 5, although
the NOAA/USAF outlook is at least 8 hours newer than the Prague
prediction. But looking back 24 hours earlier to the December 21
prediction, USAF/NOAA has nothing different on December 25, although
they do show an A index of 8 on December 29.
You can check http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html
for the latest prediction, which is updated daily after 2100z.
The predicted maximum for the current sunspot cycle keeps increasing
and being moved closer, as detailed at
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml. There is no
archive of these monthly (usually) announcements, but we've been
tracking the changes here.
Back on September 2 we reported the forecast for the peak had been
revised from June-July 2013 at 69 to May 2013 at 70. (This is a
smoothed, Geneva sunspot number, different than the higher scale
used in this bulletin.) On October 7 our report noted a change to
77 in April 2013, then last month it changed to 89 in May 2013, and
the latest now predicts a maximum of 99 in February 2013.
We have more 10-meter reports. Al Kaiser, N1API of Meriden,
Connecticut says, 10 Meters continues to impress! This morning,
(12/16), here on the East Coast we had a long path opening into
Asia. I managed to work BD7LMD at 1333 UTC then followed by VR2XRT
at 1355 and BD7IS at 1402 on SSB Phone. There were also a number of
other Chinese and India stations spotted on both CW and phone. This
is the first time in my 33 year ham career that I can remember
hearing a long path opening into ASIA on 10 meters, though I have
heard some during the contests this year on 20 meters. I have had
some long path openings to VK and ZL on 10 meters this year though.
VR2XRT was still calling and working NA Long path at 1515 UTC when
I had to shut down to go out for an appointment. He was about 5X3
when I last hear him be probably still workable.
Referring to Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP050, Pat Dyer, WA5IYX
of San Antonio, Texas writes: What KI4FW was hearing during the
10-m test was likely F2 backscatter. Lacking any short Es it's often
the only way to work the closer-in states. With my 100-w and 3-el I
have to wait until no one else (on loud direct F2) is calling them
to even have a chance for any contact via that mode. Residual
scatter from the Geminid meteor shower can give almost the same
effect at night during it on the QRO stations.
Somehow the last two 10 meter tests I managed to win the low-power
single-op phone STX certificate. With over twice as many Qs as last
year in it in 2011 I probably won't this time - conditions were
likely 'too good' with many high scores. With all the QRM finding a
spot to sustain any run with 100-w is a challenge (even up at
28.7-28.8 MHz). Also, some nasty RFI to me here for several hours
on Sunday cut into my operating time. (My only past instances of
breaking 1k Qs in this occurred while I was still using paper logs -
the peak rates of 5 Qs/min are a bit exhausting doing it that way!)
Anyway, a few rare (for me) things like 9M6YBG, DU1BP, and YB1AR
were caught.
Jon Jones, N0JK of Kansas made similar comments about backscatter.
The stations Rick was hearing from 'locations nearby' on 10 meters
may have been propagated via F2 backscatter.
They were probably KW stations with large antennas, though when
conditions are good, 100 watts and even less can work backscatter.
Using F2 backscatter is a great way to work those 'nearby' sections
inside your skip zone in the 10 meter 'test.'
I heard K9CT in Illinois on 10 meter CW via F2 backscatter Sunday
afternoon here in Kansas. But my 100 watts and
