Re: The code for AGI will be simple

2022-09-10 Thread Lawrence Crowell 
etween Capitalism and Communism would become 
> quite meaningless. All material possessions would be literally cheap as 
> dirt. Soiled handkerchiefs, diamond tiaras, Mona Lisas totally 
> indistinguishable from the original, once-worn mink stoles, half-consumed 
> bottles of the most superb champagnes – all would go back into the hopper 
> when they were no longer required. Even the furniture in the house of the 
> future might cease to exist when it was not actually in use.”
>
> Probably this book was a major influence on Gene Roddenberry's vision of a 
> post-scarcity future in Star Trek, see his comments quoted at 
> https://arthurcclarke.org/site/how-arthur-c-clarke-helped-save-star-trek/ 
> where he specifically references Profiles of the Future. For a more 
> cyberpunk depiction of how fully automated self-replicating machinery could 
> lead to a transition to a new kind of economic system, I recommend Cory 
> Doctorow's recent sci fi novel "Walkaway".
>
> Jesse
>

All of that would require an enormous amount of energy. That is one thing 
that would put a limit on this.

LC
 

>
>
>  
>
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Oxidation_Event
>>
>> And as I pointed out earlier, I think this is a universal phenomena that 
>> all intelligent life is subject to. The whole point of being intelligent 
>> is to let as much of the work be done for you by entities that are 
>> dumber than you. But in that process that leads to faster and faster 
>> economic growth, its inevitable that at some point you are going to 
>> crate autonomous systems that will grow exponentially. The point where 
>> the transition to artificial life starts is going to be close to the 
>> minimum intelligence level needed for exponential growth.
>>
>> If you make it hotter and hotter in some closed space, a fire will break 
>> out, this is going to happen close to the minimum required temperature 
>> for ignition, not at some extremely high value for the temperature. 
>> Nature shows us that the minimum amount of intelligence required for 
>> efficient self-maintenance and reproduction that yields exponential 
>> growth is very low.
>>
>> Saibal
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On 08-09-2022 14:09, John Clark wrote:
>> > This is an interview of the great computer programmer John Carmack, he
>> > thinks the time when computers can do everything, not just some
>> > things, as good or better than humans is much closer than most people
>> > believe, he thinks there is a 60% chance it will happen by 2030. Like
>> > me Carmack is much more interested in intelligence than consciousness
>> > and has no interest in the "philosophical zombie" argument. As far as
>> > the future history of the human race is concerned the following
>> > quotation is particularly relevant:
>> > 
>> > "___It seems to me this is the highest leverage moment for a single
>> > individual potentially_ _in the history of the world._ [...]   _I am
>> > not a mad man in saying that the code for artificial General
>> > intelligence is going to be tens of thousands of lines of code, not
>> > millions of lines of code. This is code that conceivably one
>> > individual could write, unliker writing a new web browser or operating
>> > system._"
>> > 
>> > The code for AGI will be simple [1]
>> > 
>> > John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis [2]
>> > 
>> > b30
>> > 
>> >  --
>> > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google
>> > Groups "Everything List" group.
>> > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send
>> > an email to everything-li...@googlegroups.com.
>> > To view this discussion on the web visit
>> > 
>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3ZEbXXVjs803%3Dutjc2pvkCgpZGA%2Bad_OWBhue-5kxDJQ%40mail.gmail.com
>> > [3].
>> > 
>> > 
>> > Links:
>> > --
>> > [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLi83prR5fg
>> > [2] https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis
>> > [3]
>> > 
>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3ZEbXXVjs803%3Dutjc2pvkCgpZGA%2Bad_OWBhue-5kxDJQ%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email_source=footer
>>
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>> .
>>
>

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Re: The code for AGI will be simple

2022-09-10 Thread Lawrence Crowell 
The code will be that length in some high level coding language.

There seems to be little asking the question, "What is all of this for?" An 
AI or AGI, whether conscious or not, that reduces humans to indolence does 
not seem like a good idea. If the AGI is mindless, say a mindless golem of 
sorts, then the whole thing seems utterly purposeless. If the system has 
some intentionality, or say a type of sentience that makes it capable of 
self-reference and actualization, then this could be very disturbing.

A brother of mine retired early from working as a programmer. He wrote the 
codes involved with barcoding, such as what we see at the store etc, and 
other things. He cannot help talk about computers without f-bombs. He is 
convinced all of this is heading into a disaster.

LC

On Thursday, September 8, 2022 at 7:09:55 AM UTC-5 johnk...@gmail.com wrote:

> This is an interview of the great computer programmer John Carmack, he 
> thinks the time when computers can do everything, not just some things, as 
> good or better than humans is much closer than most people believe, he 
> thinks there is a 60% chance it will happen by 2030. Like me Carmack is 
> much more interested in intelligence than consciousness and has no interest 
> in the "philosophical zombie" argument. As far as the future history of the 
> human race is concerned the following quotation is particularly relevant:
>
> "*It seems to me this is the highest leverage moment for a single 
> individual potentially* *in the history of the world.* [...]   *I am not 
> a mad man in saying that the code for artificial General intelligence is 
> going to be tens of thousands of lines of code, not millions of lines of 
> code. This is code that conceivably one individual could write, unliker 
> writing a new web browser or operating system.*"
>
>
> The code for AGI will be simple 
> <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLi83prR5fg>
>
> John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis 
> <https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>
> b30
>
>

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Re: The code for AGI will be simple

2022-09-10 Thread John Clark 
On Fri, Sep 9, 2022 at 8:26 AM smitra  wrote:

*> A system with AGI doesn't have to be all that intelligent *


AGI is supposed to stand for Artificial General Intelligence, if something
can have AGI without being intelligent then I don't know what "AGI" means.

>  *for it to be **extremely useful. *


Well yeah, yeast cells are very stupid but they're extremely useful if you
wanna bake bread or make beer.

> *Today we cannot build a remotely controlled spider **that could survive
> in Nature. *


I think you mean autonomous spiders, we've been making remotely controlled
robots for years that survive just fine in the natural world.

*> If we have something similar, say spider level AGI then that's good
> enough to fully automatize our entire economy *


You'll need to do a lot better than that if you wanna automatize our entire
economy. You need something smarter than a spider to write good software or
design a microchip or diagnose an illness or perform surgery or even
understand enough English to take an order at Burger King. I have no doubt
it will just be a matter of time before computers can do all of those
things better than a human, and with nanotechnology such a computer could
be much smaller than a spider.

*> This will lead to a new biology of machines with insect level
> intelligence ending up wiping out all life on Earth due to pollution,
> similar to the great oxygenation event:*


I agree the earth is approaching something as monumental as the great
oxygenation event and biological humans don't have much of a future, but
our replacement will not be something with just insect level intelligence.
John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

jil


>

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Re: The code for AGI will be simple

2022-09-09 Thread spudboy100 via Everything List 
This is only opinion here, but I agree with Telmo because we as a species 
require and roi, a return on investment, for a few good reasons. 1) We all like 
money or free stuff, or both.2) In case robots make everyone unemployed.3) We 
need longer term goals to ensure human survival. So we require better longer 
term projects. 
The vagueness of Alice & BoB will eventuate in something tasty someday, But not 
today. 


-Original Message-
From: Telmo Menezes 
To: John Clark ; 'Brent Meeker' via Everything List 

Sent: Fri, Sep 9, 2022 4:00 pm
Subject: Re: The code for AGI will be simple

#yiv6150247816 p.yiv6150247816MsoNormal, #yiv6150247816 
p.yiv6150247816MsoNoSpacing{margin:0;}#yiv6150247816 p.yiv6150247816MsoNormal, 
#yiv6150247816 p.yiv6150247816MsoNoSpacing{margin:0;}

Am Fr, 9. Sep 2022, um 13:26, schrieb John Clark:

On Fri, Sep 9, 2022 at 5:20 AM Telmo Menezes  wrote:




>> Even if you have an IQ of 200 and spend your entire life studying 
>> consciousness you will advance the field precisely as much as the entire 
>> human race has in the last thousand years. And that would be precisely zero. 
>> Isaac Newton must've had an IQ of about 200 and unfortunately he spent much 
>> more time studying theology than physics and mathematics put together, but 
>> despite that colossal effort he advanced the field of theology not at all,


> Unfortunately for you maybe, but perhaps it gave him joy and I bet that was 
> the main thing that mattered to Isaac Newton. Good for him, I would say. At 
> some point we will all be dead, and nothing will matter or be useful to us by 
> then.


I can only speak for myself but all else being equal if given the choice 
between a task that has a chance of accomplishing something and a task that can 
only lead to a dead end then I would choose the one that might actually achieve 
something, even if that achievement is just an abstract understanding of 
something with no practical value. 


If you choose, try to lose
for the loss of remain come and start
Start the game
I chi-chi, chi-chi I
chi-chi-chi, ka-ta-ko, choose to choose
choose to choose, choose to go


John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
npv


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Re: The code for AGI will be simple

2022-09-09 Thread Telmo Menezes 


Am Fr, 9. Sep 2022, um 13:26, schrieb John Clark:
> On Fri, Sep 9, 2022 at 5:20 AM Telmo Menezes  wrote:
> __
> 
>>> >> Even if you have an IQ of 200 and spend your entire life studying 
>>> >> consciousness you will advance the field precisely as much as the entire 
>>> >> human race has in the last thousand years. And that would be precisely 
>>> >> zero. Isaac Newton must've had an IQ of about 200 and unfortunately he 
>>> >> spent much more time studying theology than physics and mathematics put 
>>> >> together, but despite that colossal effort he advanced the field of 
>>> >> theology not at all,
>> 
>> *> Unfortunately for you maybe, but perhaps it gave him joy and I bet that 
>> was the main thing that mattered to Isaac Newton. Good for him, I would say. 
>> At some point we will all be dead, and nothing will matter or be useful to 
>> us by then.*
> 
> I can only speak for myself but all else being equal if given the choice 
> between a task that has a chance of accomplishing something and a task that 
> can only lead to a dead end then I would choose the one that might actually 
> achieve something, even if that achievement is just an abstract understanding 
> of something with no practical value. 

If you choose, try to lose
for the loss of remain come and start
Start the game
I chi-chi, chi-chi I
chi-chi-chi, ka-ta-ko, choose to choose
choose to choose, choose to go

> John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis 
> 
> npv
> 
> 
> 
> -- 
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
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>  
> .

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Re: The code for AGI will be simple

2022-09-09 Thread Jesse Mazer 
ook was a major influence on Gene Roddenberry's vision of a
post-scarcity future in Star Trek, see his comments quoted at
https://arthurcclarke.org/site/how-arthur-c-clarke-helped-save-star-trek/
where he specifically references Profiles of the Future. For a more
cyberpunk depiction of how fully automated self-replicating machinery could
lead to a transition to a new kind of economic system, I recommend Cory
Doctorow's recent sci fi novel "Walkaway".

Jesse




>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Oxidation_Event
>
> And as I pointed out earlier, I think this is a universal phenomena that
> all intelligent life is subject to. The whole point of being intelligent
> is to let as much of the work be done for you by entities that are
> dumber than you. But in that process that leads to faster and faster
> economic growth, its inevitable that at some point you are going to
> crate autonomous systems that will grow exponentially. The point where
> the transition to artificial life starts is going to be close to the
> minimum intelligence level needed for exponential growth.
>
> If you make it hotter and hotter in some closed space, a fire will break
> out, this is going to happen close to the minimum required temperature
> for ignition, not at some extremely high value for the temperature.
> Nature shows us that the minimum amount of intelligence required for
> efficient self-maintenance and reproduction that yields exponential
> growth is very low.
>
> Saibal
>
>
>
>
>
> On 08-09-2022 14:09, John Clark wrote:
> > This is an interview of the great computer programmer John Carmack, he
> > thinks the time when computers can do everything, not just some
> > things, as good or better than humans is much closer than most people
> > believe, he thinks there is a 60% chance it will happen by 2030. Like
> > me Carmack is much more interested in intelligence than consciousness
> > and has no interest in the "philosophical zombie" argument. As far as
> > the future history of the human race is concerned the following
> > quotation is particularly relevant:
> >
> > "___It seems to me this is the highest leverage moment for a single
> > individual potentially_ _in the history of the world._ [...]   _I am
> > not a mad man in saying that the code for artificial General
> > intelligence is going to be tens of thousands of lines of code, not
> > millions of lines of code. This is code that conceivably one
> > individual could write, unliker writing a new web browser or operating
> > system._"
> >
> > The code for AGI will be simple [1]
> >
> > John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis [2]
> >
> > b30
> >
> >  --
> > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google
> > Groups "Everything List" group.
> > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send
> > an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
> > To view this discussion on the web visit
> >
> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3ZEbXXVjs803%3Dutjc2pvkCgpZGA%2Bad_OWBhue-5kxDJQ%40mail.gmail.com
> > [3].
> >
> >
> > Links:
> > --
> > [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLi83prR5fg
> > [2] https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis
> > [3]
> >
> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3ZEbXXVjs803%3Dutjc2pvkCgpZGA%2Bad_OWBhue-5kxDJQ%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email_source=footer
>
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> .
>

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Re: The code for AGI will be simple

2022-09-09 Thread smitra 
This is something that fits in with what I wrote here some time ago 
about insect-level AI taking over from us.


A system with AGI doesn't have to be all that intelligent for it to be 
extremely useful. Today we cannot build a remotely controlled spider 
that could survive in Nature. That little intelligence a spider has is 
the GI it needs to take on the challenges of surviving. If we have 
something similar, say spider level AGI then that's good enough to fully 
automatize our entire economy with. The reason why you can't replace all 
factory worker with machines is due to a lack of even a minimal amount 
of AGI.


So, I think insect-level AGI will cause a rapid transition to a machine 
civilization. This will lead to a new biology of machines with insect 
level intelligence ending up wiping out all life on Earth due to 
pollution, similar to the great oxygenation event:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Oxidation_Event

And as I pointed out earlier, I think this is a universal phenomena that 
all intelligent life is subject to. The whole point of being intelligent 
is to let as much of the work be done for you by entities that are 
dumber than you. But in that process that leads to faster and faster 
economic growth, its inevitable that at some point you are going to 
crate autonomous systems that will grow exponentially. The point where 
the transition to artificial life starts is going to be close to the 
minimum intelligence level needed for exponential growth.


If you make it hotter and hotter in some closed space, a fire will break 
out, this is going to happen close to the minimum required temperature 
for ignition, not at some extremely high value for the temperature. 
Nature shows us that the minimum amount of intelligence required for 
efficient self-maintenance and reproduction that yields exponential 
growth is very low.


Saibal





On 08-09-2022 14:09, John Clark wrote:

This is an interview of the great computer programmer John Carmack, he
thinks the time when computers can do everything, not just some
things, as good or better than humans is much closer than most people
believe, he thinks there is a 60% chance it will happen by 2030. Like
me Carmack is much more interested in intelligence than consciousness
and has no interest in the "philosophical zombie" argument. As far as
the future history of the human race is concerned the following
quotation is particularly relevant:

"___It seems to me this is the highest leverage moment for a single
individual potentially_ _in the history of the world._ [...]   _I am
not a mad man in saying that the code for artificial General
intelligence is going to be tens of thousands of lines of code, not
millions of lines of code. This is code that conceivably one
individual could write, unliker writing a new web browser or operating
system._"

The code for AGI will be simple [1]

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis [2]

b30

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[3].


Links:
--
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLi83prR5fg
[2] https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis
[3]
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3ZEbXXVjs803%3Dutjc2pvkCgpZGA%2Bad_OWBhue-5kxDJQ%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email_source=footer


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Re: The code for AGI will be simple

2022-09-09 Thread John Clark 
On Fri, Sep 9, 2022 at 5:20 AM Telmo Menezes  wrote:

>> Even if you have an IQ of 200 and spend your entire life studying
>> consciousness you will advance the field precisely as much as the entire
>> human race has in the last thousand years. And that would be precisely
>> zero. Isaac Newton must've had an IQ of about 200 and unfortunately he
>> spent much more time studying theology than physics and mathematics put
>> together, but despite that colossal effort he advanced the field of
>> theology not at all,
>
>
> *> Unfortunately for you maybe, but perhaps it gave him joy and I bet that
> was the main thing that mattered to Isaac Newton. Good for him, I would
> say. At some point we will all be dead, and nothing will matter or be
> useful to us by then.*
>

I can only speak for myself but all else being equal if given the choice
between a task that has a chance of accomplishing something and a task that
can only lead to a dead end then I would choose the one that might actually
achieve something, even if that achievement is just an abstract
understanding of something with no practical value.

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

npv

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Re: The code for AGI will be simple

2022-09-09 Thread Telmo Menezes 


Am Do, 8. Sep 2022, um 17:00, schrieb John Clark:
> On Thu, Sep 8, 2022 at 8:19 AM Telmo Menezes  wrote:
> __
> 
>>>  >> Like me Carmack is much more interested in intelligence than 
>>> consciousness and has no interest in the "philosophical zombie" argument.
>> 
>> *> It is possible to be highly interested in both. Why not?*
> 
> Because one is a useful activity and the other is not.

If there is one thing one cannot doubt, John, is that you are thoroughly 
American :)

> Even if you have an IQ of 200 and spend your entire life studying 
> consciousness you will advance the field precisely as much as the entire 
> human race has in the last thousand years. And that would be precisely zero. 
> Isaac Newton must've had an IQ of about 200 and unfortunately he spent much 
> more time studying theology

Unfortunately for you maybe, but perhaps it gave him joy and I bet that was the 
main thing that mattered to Isaac Newton. Good for him, I would say. At some 
point we will all be dead, and nothing will matter or be useful to us by then.

Telmo

> than physics and mathematics put together, but despite that colossal effort 
> he advanced the field of theology not at all, and nobody else has managed to 
> do any better. The same is true with consciousness. 
> 
>> 
>>> 
>>> >> "***It seems to me this is the highest leverage moment for a single 
>>> >> individual potentially** **in the history of the world.* [...]   *I am 
>>> >> not a mad man in saying that the code for artificial General 
>>> >> intelligence is going to be tens of thousands of lines of code, not 
>>> >> millions of lines of code. This is code that conceivably one individual 
>>> >> could write, unliker writing a new web browser or operating system.**"*
>> 
>> *> In a sense, I agree. But remember that, even with code, we are sitting on 
>> the shoulders of giants. A few lines of code in contemporary Python mobilize 
>> decades upon decades of the blood sweat and tears of the programmers that 
>> came before, who built all of this amazing infrastructure. How many lines in 
>> the Linux kernel?*
> 
> That's why I disagree with those who say Moore's law only applies to hardware 
> and not to software.  Imagine if there were no modern software tools and you 
> had to program everything in machine language using nothing but 0 and 1. 
> Fortunately we don't have to do that because machines have been able to help 
> us write computer programs for many decades. 
> 
> John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis 
> 
> stc
> 
> 
> 
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Re: The code for AGI will be simple

2022-09-09 Thread Henrik Ohrstrom 
Could research into unconsciousness be somewhat easier?
When are a brain unconscious?
During anesthesia you might say.
Alas, as everything else, it is not that simple.

If we look at what's actually required for a satisfied patient, a truly
unconscious brain ai'nt that.
Especially as long as both lawyers and patients agree that impaired memory
are enough for satisfaction.
Absence of objections are not evidence of good enough.
A well and sufficiently (not over) medicated patient have a quite active
brain during anesthesia. Conscious? Probably not. Memory retention?
Hopefully not . Pain reactions to surgery? Actually possible to measure, se
www.med-storm.com most patients with classic standard anesthesia are
severly as in cognitive impairment dose level overmedicated during surgery.
No Pain.

So a patient who officially are the definition of unconscious, aint and
should not be.

So what is unconscious then? I would wager that it is difficult to prove
anything about a regular stone, so lets call that one unconscious.
/Henrik


Den fre 9 sep. 2022 00:44John Clark  skrev:

> On Thu, Sep 8, 2022 at 6:31 PM Brent Meeker  wrote:
>
>    Like me Carmack is much more interested in intelligence than
> consciousness and has no interest in the "philosophical zombie" argument.


 *>>>  It is possible to be highly interested in both. Why not?*

>>>
>>> * >> If one were unconscious to whom would it be useful?*
>>
>>
>
> > Because one is a useful activity and the other is not.
>
>
> I meant that research into the nature of intelligence is useful, that is
> to say it leads somewhere, but consciousness research leads nowhere and
> accomplishes nothing.
>
>  John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis
> 
>
> kkq
>
>
>
>
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> .
>
>

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Re: The code for AGI will be simple

2022-09-08 Thread John Clark 
On Thu, Sep 8, 2022 at 6:31 PM Brent Meeker  wrote:

   Like me Carmack is much more interested in intelligence than
 consciousness and has no interest in the "philosophical zombie" argument.
>>>
>>>
>>> *>>>  It is possible to be highly interested in both. Why not?*
>>>
>>
>> * >> If one were unconscious to whom would it be useful?*
>
>

> Because one is a useful activity and the other is not.


I meant that research into the nature of intelligence is useful, that is to
say it leads somewhere, but consciousness research leads nowhere and
accomplishes nothing.

 John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis


kkq

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Re: The code for AGI will be simple

2022-09-08 Thread Brent Meeker 



On 9/8/2022 8:00 AM, John Clark wrote:
On Thu, Sep 8, 2022 at 8:19 AM Telmo Menezes  
wrote:


>> Like me Carmackis much more interested in intelligence than
consciousness and has no interest in the "philosophical
zombie" argument.


/> It is possible to be highly interested in both. Why not?/


Because one is a useful activity and the other is not.


If one were unconscious to whom would it be useful?

Brent

Even if you have an IQ of 200 and spend your entire life studying 
consciousness you will advance the field precisely as much as the 
entire human race has in the last thousand years. And that would be 
precisely zero. Isaac Newton must've had an IQ of about 200 and 
unfortunately he spent much more time studying theology than physics 
and mathematics put together, but despite that colossal effort he 
advanced the field of theology not at all, and nobody else has managed 
to do any better. The same is true with consciousness.


>> "/It seems to me this is the highest leverage moment for a
single individual potentiallyin the history of the
world./ [...]/I am not a mad man in saying that the code for
artificial General intelligence is going to be tens of
thousands of lines of code, not millions of lines of code.
This is code that conceivably one individual could write,
unliker writing a new web browser or operating system.//"/


/> In a sense, I agree. But remember that, even with code, we are
sitting on the shoulders of giants. A few lines of code in
contemporary Python mobilize decades upon decades of the blood
sweat and tears of the programmers that came before, who built all
of this amazing infrastructure. How many lines in the Linux kernel?/


That's why I disagree with those who say Moore's law only applies to 
hardware and not to software. Imagine if there were no modern software 
tools and you had to program everything in machine language using 
nothing but 0 and 1. Fortunately we don't have to do that because 
machines have been able to help us write computer programs for many 
decades.


John K Clark    See what's on my new list at Extropolis 


stc

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Re: The code for AGI will be simple

2022-09-08 Thread John Clark 
On Thu, Sep 8, 2022 at 8:19 AM Telmo Menezes  wrote:

 >> Like me Carmack is much more interested in intelligence than
>> consciousness and has no interest in the "philosophical zombie" argument.
>
>
> *> It is possible to be highly interested in both. Why not?*
>

Because one is a useful activity and the other is not. Even if you have an
IQ of 200 and spend your entire life studying consciousness you will
advance the field precisely as much as the entire human race has in the
last thousand years. And that would be precisely zero. Isaac Newton must've
had an IQ of about 200 and unfortunately he spent much more time studying
theology than physics and mathematics put together, but despite that
colossal effort he advanced the field of theology not at all, and nobody
else has managed to do any better. The same is true with consciousness.

>> "*It seems to me this is the highest leverage moment for a single
>> individual potentially* *in the history of the world.* [...]   *I am not
>> a mad man in saying that the code for artificial General intelligence is
>> going to be tens of thousands of lines of code, not millions of lines of
>> code. This is code that conceivably one individual could write, unliker
>> writing a new web browser or operating system.**"*
>
>
> *> In a sense, I agree. But remember that, even with code, we are sitting
> on the shoulders of giants. A few lines of code in contemporary Python
> mobilize decades upon decades of the blood sweat and tears of the
> programmers that came before, who built all of this amazing infrastructure.
> How many lines in the Linux kernel?*
>

That's why I disagree with those who say Moore's law only applies to
hardware and not to software.  Imagine if there were no modern software
tools and you had to program everything in machine language using nothing
but 0 and 1. Fortunately we don't have to do that because machines have
been able to help us write computer programs for many decades.

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

stc

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Re: The code for AGI will be simple

2022-09-08 Thread Telmo Menezes 


Am Do, 8. Sep 2022, um 14:09, schrieb John Clark:
> This is an interview of the great computer programmer John Carmack, he thinks 
> the time when computers can do everything, not just some things, as good or 
> better than humans is much closer than most people believe, he thinks there 
> is a 60% chance it will happen by 2030.

I agree. I believe that the breakthrough towards AGI will be neurosymbolic. The 
current deep learning models will be the tissue / cartilage and formal logic 
will be the skeleton. I suspect that evolutionary computation will play a role 
too, probably for hyperparameter optimization and tasks of that nature.

>  Like me Carmack is much more interested in intelligence than consciousness 
> and has no interest in the "philosophical zombie" argument.

It is possible to be highly interested in both. Why not?

> As far as the future history of the human race is concerned the following 
> quotation is particularly relevant:
> 
> "***It seems to me this is the highest leverage moment for a single 
> individual potentially** **in the history of the world.* [...]   *I am not a 
> mad man in saying that the code for artificial General intelligence is going 
> to be tens of thousands of lines of code, not millions of lines of code. This 
> is code that conceivably one individual could write, unliker writing a new 
> web browser or operating system.**"*
> 
> 
> The code for AGI will be simple <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLi83prR5fg>

In a sense, I agree. But remember that, even with code, we are sitting on the 
shoulders of giants. A few lines of code in contemporary Python mobilize 
decades upon decades of the blood sweat and tears of the programmers that came 
before, who built all of this amazing infrastructure. How many lines in the 
Linux kernel?

Telmo

> John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis 
> <https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>
> b30
> 
> 
> 
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The code for AGI will be simple

2022-09-08 Thread John Clark 
This is an interview of the great computer programmer John Carmack, he
thinks the time when computers can do everything, not just some things, as
good or better than humans is much closer than most people believe, he
thinks there is a 60% chance it will happen by 2030. Like me Carmack is
much more interested in intelligence than consciousness and has no interest
in the "philosophical zombie" argument. As far as the future history of the
human race is concerned the following quotation is particularly relevant:

"*It seems to me this is the highest leverage moment for a single
individual potentially* *in the history of the world.* [...]   *I am not a
mad man in saying that the code for artificial General intelligence is
going to be tens of thousands of lines of code, not millions of lines of
code. This is code that conceivably one individual could write, unliker
writing a new web browser or operating system.*"


The code for AGI will be simple
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLi83prR5fg>

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis
<https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>
b30

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