The article below was researched in association with ASPO.
ASPO is a network of European institutions and universities with an interest in
determining the date and impact of the peak and decline of world oil production,
due to resource constraints which was founded in 2000.
ASPO stands for "Association for the Study of Peak Oil"
http://www.energyshortage.com
ASPO is a network of European institutions and universities with an interest in
determining the date and impact of the peak and decline of world oil production,
due to resource constraints which was founded in 2000.
ASPO stands for "Association for the Study of Peak Oil"
http://www.energyshortage.com
The article at
http://www.energyshortage.com/articles/LBST_Countdown_2004-10-12.pdf
is an excellent read concerning major issues about peak oil:
1. What are the known facts.
2. What is a scientific projection about world oil supply amd demand using
these facts.(Predicting Peak oil between now and 2010)
3. What are the methods used and derived views by the most important
(government) energy agencies..(Predicting Peak oil at 2040)
The last point is the most interesting, and it's conclusions are shocking
yet not surprising concerning the forecasts which are widely quoted in the
main stream press.
The US government has two major organizations that survey world oil supply and demand,
the USGS (US geological survey) and the Energy Information and Administration (EIA),
both are part of the US departement of energy (that also funds nuclear weapons
developement).
There's also the international energy agency (IEA) in Paris.
In the past, these agencies produced forecasts about peak oil to happen sometime
around 2040. These forecasts are taken as granted by many.
However the following needs to be considered about these agencies and there reports need
to be reexamined closely.
They all work for governments which work with and for oil companies.
If their reports suggest we are low on oil, it sends a message to their costumers to
look for something new, somehwere else.
Obviously, no company wants to publish such self destructive information.
Also, governments have a problem of self interest concerning renewable energies.
Imagine we would start using small scale renewable energies such as solar, wind,
thermal etc.. Units that produce this kind of energy can be installed in indivdual
households and make the consumer independent from government control.
Again, this is in direct contrast to a government's agenda, namely having control
about the political/economic process in the country and keeping powerful elites
in their places.
That's also a main reason why nuclear energy is promoted rather than renewable ones.
You can also find a very interesting article (only in German though) at
http://www.energiekrise.de/ if you click on the German and then on the Uran button.
It makes a convincing case that it is pretty much impossible and meaningless trying
to switch to nuclear energy as an alternative.
You can also find a very interesting article (only in German though) at
http://www.energiekrise.de/ if you click on the German and then on the Uran button.
It makes a convincing case that it is pretty much impossible and meaningless trying
to switch to nuclear energy as an alternative.
Some exempts:
In the history of oil production, which is now extending over more than 150 years,
we can identify some fundamental trends:
· The world's largest oil fields were all discovered more than 50 years ago.
· Since the 1960’s, annual oil discoveries have decreased tendentially.
· Since 1980, annual consumption has exceeded annual new discoveries.
· Till this day more than 42,000 oil fields have been found, but the 400 largest oil fields (1
per cent) contain more than 75 per cent of all oil ever discovered.
· The historical maximum of oil discoveries has to be followed after some time by a
maximum of oil production (the “peak”).
· Since the 1960’s, annual oil discoveries have decreased tendentially.
· Since 1980, annual consumption has exceeded annual new discoveries.
· Till this day more than 42,000 oil fields have been found, but the 400 largest oil fields (1
per cent) contain more than 75 per cent of all oil ever discovered.
· The historical maximum of oil discoveries has to be followed after some time by a
maximum of oil production (the “peak”).
2.2. Countries outside OPEC and Former Soviet Union (FSU)
Looking at the countries outside of the Former Soviet Union and OPEC, it can be noticed
that their total production increased until about the year 2000, but since then total
production has been declining. A detailed analysis of the individual countries within this
group shows that most of them have already reached their production peaks and that only
a very limited number of countries will still be able to expand production, particularly Brazil
and Angola.
Looking at the countries outside of the Former Soviet Union and OPEC, it can be noticed
that their total production increased until about the year 2000, but since then total
production has been declining. A detailed analysis of the individual countries within this
group shows that most of them have already reached their production peaks and that only
a very limited number of countries will still be able to expand production, particularly Brazil
and Angola.
2.3. Former Soviet Union (FSU)
The oil production of the Former Soviet Union peaked reaching a production rate of more
than 12 Mb/day at the end of the 80's. Soon afterwards production collapsed by almost
50% within 5 years. The production peak at the end of the 80's had been forecasted by
western geologists based on the depletion patterns of the largest oil fields [7]. However,
the following production collapse during the economic break down turned out to be much
steeper than expected. For this reason, Russian companies were able to stop this decline
after the liberalisation of the oil market and to increase production levels again – in some
years at double-digit rates during the last 5 years - with the help of international
cooperations and investments. However, this fast recovery now comes to an end as the
easily accessible fields have been developed and the financial and technological backlog
is widely closed.
Recently the director of the Russian energy agency, Sergej Oganesyan, conceded for the
first time that the growth rates of the past few years can't be repeated anymore and that in
2005 production will probably stagnate or even decline [8].
For some years Kazakhstan was considered to be a potential counterbalance for Saudi
Arabia. Today we know that these hopes were exaggerated. They were nurtured by
speculations of the US federal authority “EIA” which expected oil and gas reserves in the
region around the Caspian Sea amounting up to 300 Gb of oil equivalent. Realistically,
only about 45 Gb of oil are likely to be recoverable, about half of this amount is located in
already developed fields [10].
Arabia. Today we know that these hopes were exaggerated. They were nurtured by
speculations of the US federal authority “EIA” which expected oil and gas reserves in the
region around the Caspian Sea amounting up to 300 Gb of oil equivalent. Realistically,
only about 45 Gb of oil are likely to be recoverable, about half of this amount is located in
already developed fields [10].
2.4. OPEC member countries
The conclusion of the previous analyses is: the expected production decline in the group of
countries described initially is partly offset by a possible expansion in Russia and in the
Caspian Sea. But there still remains a gap of 3-5 Mb/day to keep world oil production
constant until 2010. This gap has to be filled by the OPEC member countries. If the world
demands additional oil, this amount would have to come from the OPEC member
countries as well.
Conventional wisdom has it that this will be possible for OPEC without any problems.
However, a production growth of 3-5 Mb/day within a few years does constitute a problem.
Particularly as it is widely accepted that – apart from Iraq which can't be considered to be
a reliable oil producer for the time being – only Saudi Arabia is supposed to be able to
increase its oil production significantly. This would require an expansion of almost 40% of
the Saudi Arabian oil production within very few years. This is a very ambitious goal, even
for a country with an abundance of oil.
Moreover, in recent years the suspicion has grown that the conditions for oil production in
Saudi Arabia are not as favourable anymore as is commonly assumed, but are becoming
more and more difficult.
The conclusion of the previous analyses is: the expected production decline in the group of
countries described initially is partly offset by a possible expansion in Russia and in the
Caspian Sea. But there still remains a gap of 3-5 Mb/day to keep world oil production
constant until 2010. This gap has to be filled by the OPEC member countries. If the world
demands additional oil, this amount would have to come from the OPEC member
countries as well.
Conventional wisdom has it that this will be possible for OPEC without any problems.
However, a production growth of 3-5 Mb/day within a few years does constitute a problem.
Particularly as it is widely accepted that – apart from Iraq which can't be considered to be
a reliable oil producer for the time being – only Saudi Arabia is supposed to be able to
increase its oil production significantly. This would require an expansion of almost 40% of
the Saudi Arabian oil production within very few years. This is a very ambitious goal, even
for a country with an abundance of oil.
Moreover, in recent years the suspicion has grown that the conditions for oil production in
Saudi Arabia are not as favourable anymore as is commonly assumed, but are becoming
more and more difficult.
But their comments have rather fueled existing fears instead of assuring
the world. First, it was admitted by Saudi Aramco that the big old oil fields show decline
rates, and that by now Abqaiq is depleted by 73%, and Ghawar by 48% [14]. Moreover it
was indirectly confirmed by Abdul-Baqi and Nansen Saleri, that proven reserves do not
amount to 262 Gb - as is commonly assumed - but are only 130 Gb and that another 130
Gb had already been counted as reserves because it is regarded probable that they can
be developed eventually [14]. If one would apply the same criteria which are common
practice in western companies, then Saudi Aramco’s allegation for proven reserves should
be devalued by 50%. This devaluation is confirmed indirectly by another Saudi Aramco
executive [15].
the world. First, it was admitted by Saudi Aramco that the big old oil fields show decline
rates, and that by now Abqaiq is depleted by 73%, and Ghawar by 48% [14]. Moreover it
was indirectly confirmed by Abdul-Baqi and Nansen Saleri, that proven reserves do not
amount to 262 Gb - as is commonly assumed - but are only 130 Gb and that another 130
Gb had already been counted as reserves because it is regarded probable that they can
be developed eventually [14]. If one would apply the same criteria which are common
practice in western companies, then Saudi Aramco’s allegation for proven reserves should
be devalued by 50%. This devaluation is confirmed indirectly by another Saudi Aramco
executive [15].
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