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Regardless of the balance of bad behavior in the Ukrainian conflict, the central government has committed a singular act: It is the only party to the conflict that can be said to have used heavy weaponry against its own citizens. That fact will now be repeated in the emerging narrative of Novorossiya’s struggle for survival — just as it has been for the better part of a generation in Transnistria, Abkhazia, and elsewhere.
Fourth, no external power besides Russia has an incentive for deep involvement beyond helping to stop the fighting. Ukraine has actually fallen into precisely the trap that Moldova, Georgia, and Azerbaijan stumbled into in the early 1990s. The Kiev government chose to use force against a secessionist threat, but it had neither the resolve nor the capacity to overcome it on the battlefield. The result has been increasing pressure from the international community to agree to a cease-fire, which has now held (with serious violations) for more than a week.
full: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/09/16/ukraines-breakaway-region-is-becoming-a-de-facto-country/
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