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FT, June 29 2015
Tsipras gambles political future on Greek bailout referendum
Kerin Hope in Athens
Alexis Tsipras is gambling his political future as Greece’s prime
minister on a hastily called referendum that could all too easily backfire.
Next Sunday’s vote on a failed Greek bailout proposal has divided
constitutional experts over its legitimacy and left bureaucrats
scrambling to arrange the logistics of holding the country’s first
plebiscite in more than 40 years.
It is also puzzling and confusing voters.
“Greece is holding a referendum on a proposal that no longer exists for
a bad programme that by then will have expired,” said Yannos, a business
consultant who declined to give his second name. “It doesn’t make sense.”
Mr Tsipras has urged a “no” vote to endorse his leftwing government’s
rejection of “blackmail” by the country’s creditors to apply further
harsh austerity measures in return for a €15.3bn bailout. At the same
time he has said he would respect a “yes” result.
One opinion poll conducted before the referendum was announced and
published at the weekend suggested 57 per cent of Greeks were prepared
to put up with more economic pain as the price of rescuing the economy
and staying in the euro.
With default looming on a loan payment to the International Monetary
Fund and capital controls imposed this week, patience with the leftwing
Syriza government is starting to run out.
“There’s a sense even among its supporters that the government has lost
control of the situation,” said Angeliki, an importer of hotel equipment.
A mood of rising fear and anger swept the country over the weekend as
bank cash machines ran empty and long lines of vehicles formed outside
petrol stations.
“These are extreme conditions that are likely to make anxious voters
rally behind the opposition pro-Europe parties urging a “yes”, said a
pollster who declined to be named.
Aris Hatzis, an Athens University professor and political commentator,
said Mr Tsipras had miscalculated. By rejecting the latest bailout offer
on Friday at a critical stage of the negotiations Mr Hatzis argues
creditors were poised to make concessions that could have swung Mr
Tsipras’s ruling Syriza party behind the deal.
“After weeks of intense pressure from both the creditors and his own
party, he suddenly went over the edge . . . He followed his leftwing
instincts. He acted impetuously,” Mr Hatzis said.
The consequences could be disastrous for the 40-year-old prime minister.
If the government loses the vote even by a small margin Mr Tsipras would
be obliged to resign as premier and call a general election. The
alternative would be for the premier to lead negotiations on forming a
coalition government with pro-reform parties with a mandate to rebuild
relations with European partners and ensure that Greece can remain in
the euro.
In that case Mr Tsipras would run the risk of being replaced as prime
minister by a prominent non-political figure from Greek public life.
Some observers believe the government has a chance of pulling off a
narrow victory, based on support from young voters, public sector
workers and retirees grateful for Mr Tsipras’s fierce opposition during
the bailout talks to cutting pensions and special benefits.
The far-left faction in Syriza was gearing up on Sunday to campaign for
a “no” vote by promoting their vision of leaving the eurozone,
readopting the drachma and seeking special relationships with Russia and
China.
“This is the moment of we’ve been waiting for, a chance to let the
people decide,” said Alekos, a member of the Communist Tendency, an
extreme faction in Syriza.” The problem is that there’s so little time
to take the message to the countryside.”
Syriza’s power base is concentrated in Athens and Thessaloniki, the two
biggest cities where the effects of a six-year recession are most keenly
felt. A low turnout would favour a “no” vote, the pollster said.
Mr Hatzis said that if the vote is properly organised, a high turnout
should be expected.
“A ‘no’ vote would effectively give Mr Tsipras a mandate to begin the
process of leaving the eurozone,” he said. “That’s not something voters
will take lightly.”
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