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Well I hope you are right Sheldon. My analysis was based on the offer
Tsirpas made at the last minute. Mind you I was heavily influenced by the
Guardian headline which said Tsirpas climbs down. Also, Galbraith hinted
that Tsirpas sidelined Varoufakis and put more concession minded
negotiators in charge.
As well as the obvious danger of taking angles and spin from corporate
press on face value, there is another danger here. Tsipras *did* replace
Varoufakis as head of negotiating team, and this *was* spun as taking a
softer line. But what Tsipras, other commentatots speaking to Syriza and
Varoufakis themselves all said was it was simply to remove a false
argument. The creditors were saying they couldn't work with Varoufakis, he
was too confrontational etc etc. So Syriza said fine -- you can work with
someone different. There was no obvious change *at all* in Syriza's actual
approach, and Varoufakis is not one to be silent, if he disagreed with
things he would say (as he has at times).
Syriza are trying to prove to Greek people and to other people, that they
are doing what they can to get the best deal, and that all of the
intransigence is on the other side. Why let *an individual* get in the way?
It is a false argument, a straw argument, to say Varoufakis is the
problem -- though one that plays on his public persona - so they got rid
of it.
This is important given what has just happened -- with Varoufakis resigning
as finance minister. Through the prism of bourgeois politics, it makes no
sense. Varoufakis is at the height of his political powers, his capital
could not be higher after that win. He is hugged and mobbed when he appears
on the street. It *also* can't really be understood if viewed as he was
pushed out as some sort of back down. I don't believe Varoufakis would
just go if he thought it would mean caving to the troika.
And he wouldn't *have* to go either, he would be very difficult to remove
if he didn't want to be removed. So when he says he is going to make it as
easy as possible for the government to negotiate, to avoid all false
arguments, I thikn the safest bet is take his word at face value.
I thikn his explanation that this is a tactical decision to call out the
troika's attempts to divert attention by saying they can't worth with Yanis
to say fine, you don't have to. Now negotiate properly.
If the Troika had accepted his last minute offer, then that would have
destroyed him and his party and demoralized the people. A hell of a
bluff, I would call that. But maybe you have access to more information
than myself. In any case, this is a victory for the people. And that is
what we must now concentrate on.
Again the problem is this is read through a certain lens. And gets to the
heart of what is a sell out etc. I think Tsipras genuinely wants a deal
and is trying to get the best deal he can. that is what he says. that, for
the matter, is what the supposedly more hardline Varoufakis says
*repeatedly* whenever asked. I think the reason is a weighing up of the
consequences of each decisions, combined with popular views.
That is what they always said and everything they have done is in this
direction. Of course, they won't do a deal *at any price*, as we have just
seen. But I think this is weighing up the reality that a grexit is not
necessarily automatically going to improve their position, and certainly,
unless it is widely understood as the Troika's fault, could badly affect
Syriza's standing. But also it is about understanding that there is no real
way to improve their position without a breakthrough elsewhere in Europe,
or with more more pressure across Europe on the ruling classes to force a
backdown.
Regardless of whether you think this approach is right or wrong, there is
no back down from their *actual position* involved in offering
concessions, or a sell out. if you pretend to be one thing and do
another, you may be a sell-out. But this is the course they have always
advocated and, we have seen, they are willing to be very firm on the
principles underpinning it -- even if we concluded the approach is
strategically wrong.
VBut even more than that -- the point around the world is not to focus on
betrayal or sell-out or even cheering their strategy on. It is
understanding that, whatever their strategy is and its strengths and
weaknesses, they are carrying it out under the most intense blackmail and
sabotage imaginable and the KEY thing is that must end. They must stop
their economic war on Greece.
How those facing war, those with guns against their hand, those taking the
most savage beating seek to end or ease their suffering is their business.
