Re: [Marxism] The China Syndrome,

2017-01-13 Thread Louis Proyect via Marxism

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Turning now to worries about Armageddon with China, there’s less there 
than meets the eye. In fact, the ties between the Trump White House and 
the Chinese ruling class might be even more intimate than those with 
Russia based on an eye-opening report in today’s NY Times on his 
son-in-law’s dealings with the Chinese investors close to the 
government’s top officials.


Jared Kushner is not just Trump’s son-in-law. He is slated to be 
appointed as one of his chief advisers. Like the Donald, there will be a 
token divestment of his business dealings but you can be sure that his 
empire will grow and prosper as a result of the dovetailing of interests 
with the Trump administration.


The article sets the tone in the opening paragraphs:

	On the night of Nov. 16, a group of executives gathered in a private 
dining room of the restaurant La Chine at the Waldorf Astoria hotel in 
Midtown Manhattan. The table was laden with Chinese delicacies and 
$2,100 bottles of Château Lafite Rothschild. At one end sat Wu Xiaohui, 
the chairman of the Waldorf’s owner, Anbang Insurance Group, a Chinese 
financial behemoth with estimated assets of $285 billion and an 
ownership structure shrouded in mystery. Close by sat Jared Kushner, a 
major New York real estate investor whose father-in-law, Donald J. 
Trump, had just been elected president of the United States.


It was a mutually auspicious moment.

Anbang and Kushner’s real estate firm are co-owners of 666 Fifth Avenue, 
a “fading jewel” of the Kushner empire. Just by coincidence, after 
dining at the Waldorf Astoria, Wu Xiaohui has expressed a desire to meet 
with President Trump. I am sure that Jared will exercise some influence 
to make that happen.


Apparently the 35-year old Kushner knows how to get around. Last August 
he and his wife Ivanka hobnobbed with some VIPs:


	In August, they were spotted with Wendi Deng, an ex-wife of Rupert 
Murdoch, on the 453-foot yacht Rising Sun, owned by the entertainment 
mogul David Geffen. Several weeks later, they were photographed watching 
the United States Open tennis finals with the art collector Dasha 
Zhukova, wife of the Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, a member of 
President Vladimir V. Putin’s inner circle.


Is there any better way to describe the internecine ties between the 
ultra-rich than is encapsulated here?


--David Geffen: the gay Hollywood ganze macher who was an early backer 
of Bill Clinton but who had a falling out with him over his decision not 
to pardon Leonard Peltier. Geffen was also an early backer of Obama for 
president and raised $1.3 million for Obama in a Beverly Hills fundraiser.


--Rupert Murdoch’s ex-wife, who divorced her when he learned that she 
was having an affair with Tony Blair. She is also rumored to have had 
one with Putin. So incestuous.


--Abramovich is the 13th richest man in Russia and said to enjoy the 
status of a father-like figure to Vladimir Putin. Sort of like being a 
godfather to another Vlad—Vlad the impaler.


These sorts of connections have paid off for Jared. Russian billionaire 
tech investor Yuri Milner and Chinese billionaire founder of Alibaba 
Jack Ma are investors in Cadre, a real estate investment company he and 
his brother started with a friend. Guess what. Goldman Sachs has 
invested as well.


But the bridge being built to Anbang will lead to the pot of gold at the 
end of the rainbow. The Times has reported that Anbang is “owned by a 
few dozen companies, which in turn are owned by a number of shell 
companies that are controlled by roughly 100 people, many of whom have 
ties to a county in China that is the home of Mr. Wu, whose own power 
stems in part from marriage.” Like Jared Kushner, Wu knew how to marry 
well, in his case to Zhuo Ran, a granddaughter of Deng Xiaoping, the CCP 
leader who carried out the capitalist turn.


Meanwhile, notwithstanding Trump’s faux saber-rattling that has the 
sectarian nut jobs at WSWS.org shitting in their pants, the 
president-elect is not likely to launch H-Bombs at people he has these 
kinds of connections with. The president-elect has his own financial 
entanglements with China: Trump “owns a 30 percent stake in a 
partnership that owes roughly $950 million to a group of lenders that 
includes the Bank of China, and one of his biggest tenants at Trump 
Tower is another state-owned bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of 
China.”


A week after Jared Kushner met with Mr. Wu, Donald Trump has lunch with 
him at the Waldorf. It must have been a pleasant and mutually rewarding 
affair since Wu was heard saying as left in perfect English: “I love you 
guys”.



Re: [Marxism] The China Syndrome,

2017-01-13 Thread DW via Marxism
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I wouldn't say it won't happen. I think trying to predict the actions of
the Hawkish Trump to his Hawkish national security team will not yield a
particularly productive answer.

What *will* happen will be a stream of anti-Chinese rhetoric. Starting with
the "charges" of "currency manipulation". That's a funny charge because
there is nothing illegal about it. All countries do it, most notably the
United States. Secondly, Chinese currency has been *allowed* to float for a
few years now and it's drifted...not jumped!...upward. In this case, Trump
doesn't know what he's talking about its a totally empty charge.

Secondly, more scary, is brinkmanship. Why does everyone here think it's
either "peace" or "war". It's not. It's politics, and it takes many, many
forms, including Trump's actions regarding China. The problem is that
brinkmanship, or confrontation, can indeed lead to shooting. If Trump sends
navy ships into the South China Sea...specifically toward the artificial
reef-islands the Chinese have built, it can portend real problems. So it
remains the 'threat' to do so, that is the "capacity" to confront China
there that is scary...but I doubt the US is going to go in shooting. The
U.S. has lost a real ally here: the Philippines. Other countries, including
Vietnam and Japan, are more fearful of what the Trump lead military might
do than they are of the larger People's Liberation Army. Trump has few
allies in the Pacific, at least in terms of being aggressive toward China.

All that are mitigating factors in what Trump "might do".

David Walters
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