[meteorite-list] OT: Death fears vs. probability My un-expert opinion

2005-09-03 Thread Mark Miconi

I agree with you Rob.

It is the same with the losses in Iraq. The military has accidents every 
year, even when not at war. Where are the protestors when marines die from 
hypothermia in a swamp, where are they when men die jumping from an airplane 
and crash into the desert? Why is it a needless death when they die in Iraq 
and not when it is a training exercise.


Many in America are bitching about the time it is taking to help the 
stranded. If I remember correctly they were told to EVACUATE New Orleans. It 
is not like the problem with the levees is newTHEY HAVE BEEN INADEQUETE 
FOR OVER 100 YEARS.  I do not remember seeing throngs marching in the city 
prior to the storm TRYING TO ESCAPE, yet they can sure get out in horrible 
conditions to loot, rob, rape and murder now. If 30,000 people were in the 
streets trying to evacuate I think someone might have noticed


Why is not the ever present and all knowing Michael Farmer running the damn 
show if he is so freaking smart? Farmer your mouth is always running about 
the wrong shit. If you know so damn much get your ass to the region and help 
our president do it right. Where is all your massive fortune Mike? Lets see 
a public contribution, other than your witty bullshit here on the list. How 
many families from the region are living with you? I HAVE AN OFFER ON 
CRAIGSLIST TO TAKE A FAMILY OF 4.


MIKE, SHUT UP AND DO SOMETHING TANGIBLE FOR A CHANGE.

I do not care what you did in the past...THIS IS HERE AND THIS IS NOW, WHAT 
HAVE YOU DONE FOR THEM LATELY?


I do not make enough money to save the world. My family has already donated 
$300.00, and my brother in law who is the biggest DJ in Arizona on KMLE in 
Phoenix is on the air raising money and starting a clothes drive. My sons 
class is taking contributions of school supplies for the children of the 
disaster including giving up some of there own badly needed supplies.
At my office we all paid for a week($2.00 a day) of casual dress(jeans) and 
this week we will all wear our dress clothes and send the money to the red 
cross.


YES things were done wrong, and yes they could have been done betterTHAT 
DISCUSSION IS FOR A LATER TIME AND ON ANOTHER LIST.


If anybody HERE thinks you can do better get your boots on the ground...if 
you can help, then do it. You know that $5.00 is not much today NOT EVEN 2 
GALLONS OF GAS, but if all of us sent $5.00 to the Red Cross it will make a 
difference, all your bitching is doing is wasting air and creating 
greenhouse gasses.


Our people...AMERICANS, need us now. Later we can get together and discuss 
what we need to do to fix what happened. Now we just need to open our homes 
our wallets and our hearts and helpwho cares who screwed this up, lets 
just fix it and hang those that be damned later.


No one on earth could have stopped this storm, no one on earth is 
responsible for the storm, everyone can have a hand in fixing it.


Alot of people here bitch that there is too much government in America, and 
then expect that same government to pick their asses up out of the thick of 
things when ultimately the responsibility for your OWN LIFE RESTS WITH YOU. 
Next election get out and vote, get involved, your government is YOU when 
you participate.


Thats my look on the issue. My challenge to everyone is to quit looking for 
the devil to hang and get your asses in gear, give money, give clothes, 
start auctions to benefit the people that need it most, offer to take in a 
family if you can do it. JUST DO SOMETHING OTHER THAN ARGUE ABOUT WHAT 
HAPPENED, IT WILL NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT IT HAPPENED.


To everyone that has given already...THANK YOU and find a way to give some 
more.


Thanks for listening, and please find a way to help.

Mark M.


- Original Message - 
From: Matson, Robert [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: 'Sterling K. Webb' [EMAIL PROTECTED]; 
meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com

Sent: Friday, September 02, 2005 12:21 PM
Subject: [meteorite-list] OT: Death fears vs. probability



Sterling makes some excellent points about the psychological
impact of tragic deaths attributed to various flavors of
Mother Nature flexing her muscles.  When it comes to fear and
risk, humans can be very irrational.  They worry about tornadoes,
hurricanes, volcanoes, supervolcanoes, tsunamis, global warming,
airplane crashes, lightning, shark attacks and bear attacks, not
to mention whatever the latest fear of the week might be (e.g.
anthrax, dirty bombs, West Nile virus, Ebola).

The common factor in all of these fears is that the probability
of dying from any one of them is practically zero.  In fact, if
you add up all the probabilities of dying from each of these, the
chances are still next to zero.  But this is what people worry
about because it's reported each and every day on their TV sets.
They think nothing of getting in their cars each day and driving
to and from work (perhaps smoking a cigarette or wolfing down a
supersize meal from their favorite 

Re: [meteorite-list] OT: Death fears vs. probability My un-expert opinion

2005-09-03 Thread MexicoDoug
Rob and Sterling discussed:
When 2000 people die from a  hurricane-caused flood, that's news.
But 42,000+ people dying in  automobile accidents ANNUALLY in
the U.S. alone?  No one  cares.  

No one cares?  If a drunk driver was the cause they will find out  quickly 
that someone cares.  And there is reason for that:

I totally  disagree with this spin from my most respected friends regarding 
these good  points.  If you live in a hurricane prone area the USA statistics 
mean  nothing and proactivity everything(why not use 6.x billionin the world it 
is  just as meaningless), if you have filthy sanitation USA death from 
microbes'  statistics mean nothing, if you like surfboarding in shark infested 
waters  (where great waves are), they mean nothing, if you live in tornado 
alley, 
etc.  statistics, and if you skydive frequently, why would USA statistics mean  
anything.

While I agree that society as a whole has a terrible grasp of  statistics, 
and they appear sometimes just branch of politics, there are two  important 
thoughts missing from these cold statistical arguments:

One is  the the fear of loss of control over one's destiny and 
self-determination.   If I accept the statical bet to drive with its risks, I 
have 
determined my  destiny, and if I am fatigued but drive anyway, the statistics 
are 
usless as I  find myself drifting in front of opposing trucks or off the road, 
and 
no one  will question that it is my fault if something happens.  Statistics 
may be  interesting for the Federal Bureau of Statistics (Federal BS) in this 
case - but  luckily one has not yet become a statistic for the morbidity bean 
counters while  one is alive. 

The other related objection I have is the thought that  people are too 
ignorant to guage situations of bonafide danger when they are  knowingly in 
harm's 
way.  The being hit on the head by a meteorite  arriving from space is 
basically a cold statistic on Earth, but it has new  meaning if you are an 
astronaut 
floating around in the space station.   Living on Miami Beach or N Orleans is 
like during hurricane Season.  Or  when I am caught in the middle of an 
electrical storm on treeless plains with an  iron in the pocket and no where to 
hide.  Maybe I should raise a lightning  rod connected to the iron in my soaked 
backpack and laugh in defiance at God's  act quoting Him USA statistics? 

When expectations are mismanaged  statistics are a very lame and misguided 
defense or consolation.  This  isn't a political comment about poor leadership 
and bureaucracy any more than  condoning the barbaric nature of some natives in 
the New Orleans area who  clearly (were driven to?) lack the spirit that 
founded America.  I hope  the current Gulf coast crisis is contained and a 
proactive attitude arises from  the fading chaos.  There is probably a handful 
of 
people out there right  now praying with all there hearts not to become fodder 
for a statistical quotes,  thought their chances are 50/50 in their mind - and 
they may be overly  optimistic.

The expectation management and self-determination factor need  to be 
considered.  Terrorism is a perfect example.  Statistically we  can forget 
about it.  
Tell that to the Meteoritehunter dining in Nakhla  Cafe when a boom is 
suddenly heard.  Oh, only 500 people have meteorites  that have rusted.  So, if 
you 
are a resident of the USA, don't worry about  having a meteorite rusting - it 
is statistically insignificant that it will  happen to you.  And especially 
don't worry about it if the seller gave you  the expectation that it won't 
rust.  
Those are even fewer cases and  statistically not even measurable in the 
context of the USA population to 5  sigma...

Saludos, Doug
 
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