Re: EXERCISE: 2019 IAA Planetary Defence Conference - Day 5 Scenario

[Rich Kulawiec]

On Wed, May 08, 2019 at 10:11:10AM -0400, Sean Donelan wrote:
> Many exercise designers could use help coming up with useful Internet
> disaster sub-plots.  Bad enough to inject stress into the exercise, but not
> extinction.
> 
> All ISP tech support agents are infected, and become brain eating zombies.

We call that "Tuesday".

---rsk

p.s. On a more serious note, disaster exercises that include partial
failures of emergency response infrastructure are often quite challenging.
As I write this, the IT infrastructure of Baltimore is down due to
a ransomware attack.  As a consequence, while 911 is functional,
fire department computers are down.  If a significant event requiring
BCFD happened tonight, it would be challenging for them to coordinate
a large-scale response.

Re: EXERCISE: 2019 IAA Planetary Defence Conference - Day 5 Scenario

[J. Hellenthal via NANOG]

To sum it all up... if and when ... I doubt we will worry about the internet.

Food, Water, shelter and ammunition’s || that’s all else if anyone could 
possibly make it through.

#ProblemSolved



-- 
 J. Hellenthal

The fact that there's a highway to Hell but only a stairway to Heaven says a 
lot about anticipated traffic volume.

> On May 8, 2019, at 18:03, Mark Rousell  wrote:
> 
>> On 08/05/2019 02:44, Sean Donelan wrote:
>> Of course, any fictional scenario is more likely to hit an ocean or miss the 
>> planet. But that makes for a dull exercise. 
> 
> An ocean impact needn't be boring. It would potentially create megatsunamis 
> over a possibly wide area on multiple coasts. Even cities away from coasts 
> but on rivers could be affected.
> 
> A large ocean impactor could even damage undersea cables.
> 
> -- 
> Mark Rousell


smime.p7s
Description: S/MIME cryptographic signature

Re: EXERCISE: 2019 IAA Planetary Defence Conference - Day 5 Scenario

[Mark Rousell]

On 08/05/2019 02:44, Sean Donelan wrote:
> Of course, any fictional scenario is more likely to hit an ocean or
> miss the planet. But that makes for a dull exercise.

An ocean impact needn't be boring. It would potentially create
megatsunamis over a possibly wide area on multiple coasts. Even cities
away from coasts but on rivers could be affected.

A large ocean impactor could even damage undersea cables.

-- 
Mark Rousell

Re: EXERCISE: 2019 IAA Planetary Defence Conference - Day 5 Scenario

[james jones]

Did anyone trying calling Bruce Willis?

On Wed, May 8, 2019 at 10:41 AM William Herrin  wrote:

> On Tue, May 7, 2019 at 11:20 AM Sean Donelan  wrote:
>
>> The scenario was chosen to stress the partcipants, not an actual asteroid
>> impact. It was a fictional scenario. This was only an exercise.
>>
>> 60 meter asteroid impact in New York City, NY (roughly Central Park, NYC)
>>
>
> So what happened? Where's the post-game? You guys had 8 years to stop the
> thing. Why is there a big hole in Manhattan? And with 10 days warning at
> the very end, why did any critical Internet operations remain active in NYC?
>
> Regards,
> Bill
>
>
> --
> William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
> Dirtside Systems . Web: 
>

Re: EXERCISE: 2019 IAA Planetary Defence Conference - Day 5 Scenario

[William Herrin]

On Tue, May 7, 2019 at 11:20 AM Sean Donelan  wrote:

> The scenario was chosen to stress the partcipants, not an actual asteroid
> impact. It was a fictional scenario. This was only an exercise.
>
> 60 meter asteroid impact in New York City, NY (roughly Central Park, NYC)
>

So what happened? Where's the post-game? You guys had 8 years to stop the
thing. Why is there a big hole in Manhattan? And with 10 days warning at
the very end, why did any critical Internet operations remain active in NYC?

Regards,
Bill


-- 
William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
Dirtside Systems . Web: 

Re: EXERCISE: 2019 IAA Planetary Defence Conference - Day 5 Scenario

[Bryan Fields]

On 5/7/19 3:39 PM, Mark Seiden wrote:
> excellent!  (but i was hoping this would be a swamp-draining-by-vaporization
> exercise.)

the matador...the matador... the matador!

-- 
Bryan Fields

727-409-1194 - Voice
http://bryanfields.net

Re: EXERCISE: 2019 IAA Planetary Defence Conference - Day 5 Scenario

[Sean Donelan]

On Tue, 7 May 2019, Haudy Kazemi wrote:

For any hit, a lot depends on impactor size. With an impactor of the size
that took out the non-avian dinosaurs...the site of impact probably won't
matter to us if humanity is unable to deflect it.


I understand the intent.  Earth is still a single point of failure.

For disaster exercise planning purposes, extinction level events don't 
make for very interesting game-play. The disaster game-play is over by 
Monday afternoon, and the rest of the exercise week is a bust. The white 
team is forced to roll-back time and raise civilization from the ashes 
to continue with rest of the week.  That's why extinction level events are 
generally used only in disaster planning study papers, not exercises.



Many exercise designers could use help coming up with useful Internet 
disaster sub-plots.  Bad enough to inject stress into the exercise, but 
not extinction.


All ISP tech support agents are infected, and become brain eating 
zombies.

Re: EXERCISE: 2019 IAA Planetary Defence Conference - Day 5 Scenario

[Haudy Kazemi]

>
> Of course, any fictional scenario is more likely to hit an ocean or miss
> the planet. But that makes for a dull exercise.
>

For any hit, a lot depends on impactor size. With an impactor of the size
that took out the non-avian dinosaurs...the site of impact probably won't
matter to us if humanity is unable to deflect it.

See the RadioLab Dinopocalypse Redux from a few days ago for more on the
model.

https://www.wbez.org/shows/radiolab/dinopocalypse-redux/a36ca1fd-9525-40bc-88d3-e66116f1da50

Re: EXERCISE: 2019 IAA Planetary Defence Conference - Day 5 Scenario

[Scott Weeks]

--- s...@donelan.com wrote:
From: Sean Donelan 

Of course, any fictional scenario is more likely to hit 
an ocean...But that makes for a dull exercise.
-


Not for some of us...  ;-)

scott

Re: EXERCISE: 2019 IAA Planetary Defence Conference - Day 5 Scenario

[Sean Donelan]

On Tue, 7 May 2019, Nick Hilliard wrote:
pfft, asteroid impacts and alien mothership crashes are bound to happen in 
Central Park.  Everyone knows that!


The next Planetary Defence Conference in 2021 will be hosted in Europe. 
That means a major city on the European continent will likely be destroyed 
in the next asteroid exercise :-)


2015 exercise - fictional impact Dhaka, Bangladesh
2017 exercise - no fictional impact Tokyo, Japan (asteroid deflected)
2019 exercise - fictional impact New York City, NY

Which iconic places in Europe to plot the 2021 PDC asteroid path?

Of course, any fictional scenario is more likely to hit an ocean or miss 
the planet. But that makes for a dull exercise.

Re: EXERCISE: 2019 IAA Planetary Defence Conference - Day 5 Scenario

[Mark Seiden]

manifestly untrue

https://movie-tourist.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-day-earth-stood-still-1951.html

On May 7, 2019, 1:33 PM -0700, Nick Hilliard , wrote:
> Marshall Eubanks wrote on 07/05/2019 21:16:
> > Yes, they kept moving the impact site around all week (both Denver and
> > West Africa were mentioned at times). Some people wiser than I guessed
> > Central Park early on, but I thought that was too obvious. Good thing
> > I didn't make a bet on it.
>
> pfft, asteroid impacts and alien mothership crashes are bound to happen
> in Central Park. Everyone knows that!
>
> Nick
>

Re: EXERCISE: 2019 IAA Planetary Defence Conference - Day 5 Scenario

[Nick Hilliard]

Marshall Eubanks wrote on 07/05/2019 21:16:

Yes, they kept moving the impact site around all week (both Denver and
West Africa were mentioned at times). Some people wiser than I guessed
Central Park early on, but I thought that was too obvious. Good thing
I didn't make a bet on it.


pfft, asteroid impacts and alien mothership crashes are bound to happen 
in Central Park.  Everyone knows that!


Nick

Re: EXERCISE: 2019 IAA Planetary Defence Conference - Day 5 Scenario

[Marshall Eubanks]

Yes, they kept moving the impact site around all week (both Denver and
West Africa were mentioned at times). Some people wiser than I guessed
Central Park early on, but I thought that was too obvious. Good thing
I didn't make a bet on it.

Regards
Marshall Eubanks

On Tue, May 7, 2019 at 2:21 PM Sean Donelan  wrote:
>
>
> EXERCISE Only
>
> The scenario was chosen to stress the partcipants, not an actual asteroid
> impact. It was a fictional scenario. This was only an exercise.
>
> 60 meter asteroid impact in New York City, NY (roughly Central Park, NYC)
>
> 10,117,016 population directly affected
>
> Estimated unsurvivable area (complete destruction) 32 square miles
>
>
> Internet Communications
>
> 30 Internet exchange points (1 unsurvivable, 8 critical damage, 20 severe
> damage, 1 serious damage)
>
> 708 Data centers (16 unsurvivable, 229 crtical damage, 446 severe damage,
> 16 serious:
>
> 6,300 Points of presence (1853 unsurvivable, 453 critical damage, 1447
> severe damage, 456 serious damage)
>
>
> Indirect Internet impacts
>
> Mass communications
>
> Social media, misinformation and malinformation
>
> https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pd/cs/pdc19/
>
>

Re: EXERCISE: 2019 IAA Planetary Defence Conference - Day 5 Scenario

[Mark Seiden]

excellent!  (but i was hoping this would be a swamp-draining-by-vaporization 
exercise.)

i particularly liked this animation. 
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pd/cs/pdc19/Day5-MegaFire.mov
On May 7, 2019, 11:21 AM -0700, Sean Donelan , wrote:
>
> EXERCISE Only
>
> The scenario was chosen to stress the partcipants, not an actual asteroid
> impact. It was a fictional scenario. This was only an exercise.
>
> 60 meter asteroid impact in New York City, NY (roughly Central Park, NYC)
>
> 10,117,016 population directly affected
>
> Estimated unsurvivable area (complete destruction) 32 square miles
>
>
> Internet Communications
>
> 30 Internet exchange points (1 unsurvivable, 8 critical damage, 20 severe
> damage, 1 serious damage)
>
> 708 Data centers (16 unsurvivable, 229 crtical damage, 446 severe damage,
> 16 serious:
>
> 6,300 Points of presence (1853 unsurvivable, 453 critical damage, 1447
> severe damage, 456 serious damage)
>
>
> Indirect Internet impacts
>
> Mass communications
>
> Social media, misinformation and malinformation
>
> https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pd/cs/pdc19/
>
>