Re: nettime Europe: from bad to worse (should be Greece, from

2015-06-30 Thread Patrice Riemens
 Because they are not within the eurozone, obvs.

 It didn't take long for the 'feckless Greeks' line to surface on
 Nettime now did it?

Ahem, with some nettimers only ;-)

 While Greek capital has been in trouble since
 the 1970s, the current set of problems stems from the financial
 structure of the Eurozone - namely, its set up so as to circulate
 surplus German capital (where the currency is undervalued vis-a-vis
 the old Deutschmark)

That's most probably true, and a taboo subject in Deutschland (correct me
if wrong). But in Deutschland's economic vassal state, the Netherlands,
whose currency was solidly tied to the Deutschmark since the seventies, it
was recently discussed thanks to the petulant former minister of finance,
Gerrit Zalm, now boss of the nationalised (bailed out) ABN-AMRO bank, when
it surfaced he had deliberately undervalued (by at least 10%) the Guilder
in its transition to the Euro so has to bolster Dutch exports, the
principal - and traditional, for centuries -  mainstay of the Dutch
economy (with disastrous consequences for domestic incomes and
consumption, but that's another story)...

 to Southern Europe, where the currencies are
 overvalued.

... On the other hand, the clear overvaluing of the Greek Drachma in the
Euro transition, and it was clear even at the time, was also deliberate
act of 'national pride' by the then Greek government. It was accepted by
Greece's European partners as part of the general euphoria about all the
good things the new currency would bring about.

 This all went to hell in the financial crisis of 2008,
 and instead of letting the investor banks in the Greek economy go
 bust the ECB/EU/et al set out to save the French and German banks
 via the Greek government (moral hazard anyone?). So what we are
 witnessing is a conflict over French and German investments, and who
 is to pay for the bail out of them (sound familiar?).

As I wrote in my previous post (sorry), but was possibly not clear enough,
one of the characteristics of post-modern political actors is total denial
about what has happened before, especially if they had a hand in it.
That's why any mention ('lecturing') by 'the Greek' on the background of
today's predicament is declared irrelevant, null and void by their
interlocutors. And they are succesfull, since they do this 'by default'.
They genuninly can pretend they don't understand what, e.g., Varoufakis is
talking about and why he does it since it has been blanked out from their
mind.

Yesterday is History, To-day is a Gift, To-morrow is Mystery!


 But if its
 orthodox marxism on the crisis you want, you could do worse that
 Michael Roberts...

 https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/

Looks like great stuff!

Cheers to all, and  ... Don't Happy, Be Worry! (-Rambo Amadeus)
p+2D!


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Re: nettime Europe: from bad to worse (should be Greece, from

2015-06-30 Thread Novica Nakov
   did someone post this already?

   https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/greek-bailout-fund#/story

   CrowdFunding a bailout fund for Greece. By the people, for the people.
   they raised  140k so far. :)

   On Tue, Jun 30, 2015 at 8:30 AM, Patrice Riemens [2]patr...@xs4all.nl
   wrote:

  Because they are not within the eurozone, obvs.
 ...


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Re: nettime Europe: from bad to worse

2015-06-29 Thread Armin Medosch

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dear Felix

your analysis seems unusually dark, since I know you usually as a mildly
optimistic person. Well, in fact I share most of it, and said so
recently on my website http://www.thenextlayer.org/node/1331 in an
article comparing the current situation to Polanyi's analysis of the
1920s and 1930s.

The amount of confusion in European papers is both, amazing and scary.
Many seem to equate a no in the referendum with Greeks exit from the
Eurozone and maybe even the EU. While this may be the outcome in the
long run, and there is no doubt that the actions of Merkel, Hollande,
Disselblom are immensely dangerous to the European project, I would like
to warn against automatically linking those events.

Syriza have always said they want to stay in the EU and in the Euro.
Maybe they can do that by applying capital controls. An example has been
provided by the irrepressible Dr. Mahathir during the Asian financial
crisis. When Malaysia was hit by that crisis originating in Thailand,
he, as prime minister of Malaysia, refused to swallow the IMF pill and
introduced capital controls. I am definitely not a fan of Mahathir with
regard to all his other policies, but this one seems to have worked.

Quoting from this studay

Compared to IMF programs, we find that the Malaysian policies produced
faster economic recovery, smaller declines in employment and real wages,
and more rapid turnaround in the stock market. 

https://www.sss.ias.edu/files/pdfs/Rodrik/Research/did-Malaysian-capital-controls-work.PDF

I cant vow for the quality of this study above, but I just wanted to
remind of the irrepressible Doctor who keeps being a real pain in the
ass for his successors. Ah lot of what he says and thinks is absurd, but
lets not forget how he was ostracized for breaking through the
neoliberal orthodoxy by applying capital controls.

But given that example, maybe Greece can toughen it out financially. The
IMF loan? Negligible, thats something to work itself through the courts,
like Argentine's default, it can take years. A country is not broke
because of such a small debt. And now holiday season starts. If the
situation in Greece remains quiet, tourist cash will be flowing in.

Greece can stay in the Euro, strengthen its hand politically through a
referendum which is a vote on the current 'package' but not on leaving
the Euro, and thus keep negotiating. Above all, what they should
accomplish, is politicising the whole conflict. Thus, Greece could
become a real pain in the ass of the neoliberal crony capitalists of
Europe and the world

best
Armin


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