Re: Turkey
Michael writes: With Turkey qualify as too big to fail within the context of the war on terrorism? Michael, If I am not wrong, this is a response to my statement about the nearing collapse of Turkey. Who knows maybe I am overly pessimistic but I don't see any other way out and think that the collapse will most likely be followed by a military coup to hold the country together with severe repression. We still have a few state enterprises to sell but what will happen after they are gone? If the Turkish military engages in a military operation, it will cost money too. Who is going to pay all these bills? However big Turkey is to fail, will/can US pick up the entire tab? If not, will EU agree to share? Sabri
inevitable textbook query
is there a half-decent introductory microeconomics textbook out there? (One that isn't too filled with details.) Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
Re: PEN-L digest 115: Health UE
ORIGINAL COMMENT: From today's SLATE summary of the major U.S. newspapers: A researcher at UNC-Greensboro has found, under certain circumstances, an inverse relationship between health and prosperity, the NY [TIMES] reports. Any number of infirmities--death, for example--drop off during short-term recessions. Smoking, obesity, heavy drinking and some kinds of back problems also decline, perhaps because there's no extra money (for booze, say) and lots of free time (for exercise). Some numbers: A one-point rise in a state's unemployment rate translates into a .5 percent drop in the total death rate. Conversely, a point drop in unemployment brings fatal car crashes up 2.4 percent. The inevitable kicker from the Times: What's money when you have your health? so we need more unemployment? JD ___ REPLY: I believe JD accepts this as balderdash. Most medical scientists would too unless COMPELLING data to the opposite. One small aspect might be true relationship to alcohol consumption. HOWEVER, this is far outweighed by the other generalized health consequences of unemployment (U/E). Fraternal Greetings Hari Kumar STRUCTURE OF THIS REPLY: Given below are some abstracts available from the National Library of medicine (PUBMED) search engine. Search terms either: Unemployment and outcomes; (Yield 64 articles) or: Unemployment and outcomes and Brenner (Yeild 8 articles all shown below). I have further sub-divided these into categories that have a introductory sub-heading. 1) A SIMPLE OVER_VIEW: Two interacting but mutually deleterious effects of health and U/E: ARTICLE (I): Med J Aust 1998 Feb 16;168(4):178-82 Comment in: Med J Aust. 1998 Aug 3;169(3):173. The health consequences of unemployment: the evidence. Mathers CD, Schofield DJ. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra. [EMAIL PROTECTED] Mathers and Schofield, from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, review recent studies, including Australian research, on the health effects of unemployment and the mechanisms by which unemployment causes adverse health outcomes. The relationship is complex: ill-health also causes unemployment, and confounding factors include socioeconomic status and lifestyle. However, longitudinal studies with a range of designs provide reasonably good evidence that unemployment itself is detrimental to health and has an impact on health outcomes--increasing mortality rates, causing physical and mental ill-health and greater use of health services. PMID: 9507716 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrievedb=PubMedlist_uids=9507716dopt=Abstract ARTICLE (ii) CMAJ 1995 Sep 1;153(5):529-40 Related Articles, Books, LinkOut Comment in: Can Med Assoc J. 1996 May 15;154(10):1467-8 The impact of unemployment on health: a review of the evidence. Jin RL, Shah CP, Svoboda TJ. Occupational Health Section (Medical Services Department), Workers' Compensation Board of British Columbia, Vancouver. OBJECTIVE: To review the scientific evidence supporting an association between unemployment and adverse health outcomes and to assess the evidence on the basis of the epidemiologic criteria for causation. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE was searched for all relevant articles with the use of the MeSH terms unemployment, employment, job loss, economy and a range of mortality and morbidity outcomes. A secondary search was conducted for references from the primary search articles, review articles or published commentaries. Data and definitions of unemployment were drawn from Statistics Canada publications. STUDY SELECTION: Selection focused on articles published in the 1980s and 1990s. English-language reports of aggregate-level research (involving an entire population), such as time-series analyses, and studies of individual subjects, such as cross-sectional, case-control or cohort studies, were reviewed. In total, the authors reviewed 46 articles that described original studies. DATA EXTRACTION: Information was sought on the association (if any) between unemployment and health outcomes such as mortality rates, specific causes of death, incidence of physical and mental disorders and the use of health care services. Information was extracted on the nature of the association (positive or negative), measures of association (relative risk, odds ratio or standardized mortality ratio), and the direction of causation (whether unemployment caused ill health or vice versa). DATA SYNTHESIS: Most aggregate-level studies reported a positive association between national unemployment rates and rates of overall mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular disease and suicide. However, the relation between unemployment rates and motor-vehicle fatality rates may be inverse. Large, census-based cohort studies showed higher rates of overall mortality, death due to cardiovascular disease and suicide among unemployed men and
Re: Top Japan banks seen posting 01-02 net loss
Japan banks seen posting 01-02 net loss How is this news? I have been hearing for some time now that the Japanese banking system was in disaster mode. And yet it seems to be surprising that they will not make a profit. What am I missing? I'm not sure I'll answer your questions, but a few comments if a I may. Capital adequacy ratios are adequate, so why should anyone panic? You can float a bank at 4% unless you have to make the international bankers happy. The banks aren't in disaster mode, the economy is. No amount of writing 'bad' loans off is going to reflate the economy, and in fact, the effect is going to be the opposite if those loans are collected on or sold off to the vulture cap artists. The banks have actually enjoyed profits quite a bit just from the spread between interest paid on savings and interest paid them on loans. There are few other ways to make money long term in retail banking. They don't even have checking accounts to nickel and dime you to death on, though businesses use a special account that works somewhat like a checking account. So far the use of ATMs is free so long as it's on a related bank and not after regular hours. Now they are combining some Japanese techniques with western banking ones. They are playing with stock values to help profitability (this is crucial with the insurance companies, many of which are linked to the banks) even as they unload cross-held shares in companies (I think this is mostly Japanese, though playing with stock prices seems to have been perfected in the US). And now they are introducing western style 'risk assessment' and 'risk management'--which means more actively managing the loan portfolios and applications. And they are writing off huge amounts of losses, just like western banks do. There is no shame in the banking world, is there? None of this, none of this, none of this is going to reflate the economy. But it's what the US, the IMF, and the 'markets' want. Since most of the interests involved with US and IMF 'Japan policy' are fairly ignorant of Japan or just flat out prejudicial (Japan is an imicical threat to the form of western capitalism dominated by the US), I predict far more trouble ahead. I look for some big banking groups to end up in western hands soon, unless the economy turns around and the rising tide raises all those little boats (the loans still held). But so far the 'market-approved treatment' is like helping someone who has severed an artery by handing out lots of clean towels to wipe up the floor. The only thing that is going to turn around and reflate the economy, I think, is a yen at 150-160 to the dollar, and that just is not going to happen since neither China nor the US want it. Instead, what Japan is going to get is a still overvalued yen with oil turmoil, the last two things it needs, along with a third undesirable--an even more rigid trade structure vis-a-vis the NAFTA and EU blocs. Charles Jannuzi
Summa Contra Curmudgeons
http://www.independent.co.uk Andrew Smithers: American anxiety is bubbling under 07 April 2002 In 1996 the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, said investors seemed to be suffering from irrational exuberance. The phrase became famous, but the concern did not linger in his mind. During the market's subsequent rise, he appeared to move from critic to cheerleader. A minority view holds that the Fed committed a big mistake in allowing the bubble to grow. Over the next few years, this minority will either dwindle to nothing or become the majority. As usual in such matters, it is unlikely either result will depend on the arguments currently being aired. Events will be the arbiter. The case against allowing asset bubbles is that there can be no satisfactory resolution to their demise. Once assets get out of line with incomes, the return to normality needs either a large fall in nominal asset prices or a large rise in nominal incomes. The former gives rise to bankruptcies and risks setting off a liquidity trap. The latter can only occur if inflation reaches heights that central bankers are dedicated to avoiding. The recession that followed the bursting of the recent US bubble has so far been mild. America is recovering and it is widely expected that growth can be sustained without a sharp rise in inflation. The curmudgeons, though, see the dramatic fall in interest rates, and rapid expansion of money supply that has gone with it, as postponing the problem rather than curing it. Since the asset bubble was built on debt, cutting rates had the effect of making the burden more bearable. But it did not reduce debt, which has continued to grow much faster than GDP. Central bankers respond to markets. This was seen after the crash in 1987 and when LTCM went bankrupt in 1998. They tend, however, only to respond in one direction. They support markets but don't deflate them. This asymmetry adds to the likelihood of stock market bubbles and has become known as the Greenspan Put. A central bank that strives to ensure investor losses are small and short-lived will be hugely popular, at least until the economic price comes to be paid. But the intellectual case for this policy is not based on popularity. The traditional view is that central bankers are there to take away the punch bowl, just as the party is getting started. The case against central banks intervening to dampen asset bubbles is based on two ideas. The first is the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which asserts that markets provide the best estimate of the value of shares. The second, dubbed the Efficient Central Banker Hypothesis (ECBH), is that monetary pol- icy should be about controlling inflation and nothing else. If the EMH is correct, bubbles cannot occur and there can be no justification in central banks seeking to prevent them. The orthodox view now is that this philosophy must be rejected. The ECBH, meanwhile, has been gaining rather than losing adherents. If Mr Greenspan had tightened policy when he expressed concern about irrational exuberance, the proponents of the ECBH would have seen it as unnecessary since there was then little sign of rising inflation. Subsequent events have, so far, supported this view. But if, as the curmudgeons fear, the US economy fails to find a way of avoiding a severe recession without a sharp rise in inflation, the ECBH will come under attack and a more symmetrical approach to stock market crashes and bubbles should become the new orthodoxy. Andrew Smithers is chairman of Smithers Co. This article is based on a longer piece in the current issue of 'World Economics' jointly authored with Stephen Wright, lecturer in economics at Birkbeck College, London. www.smithers.co.uk Of all the great motors handed down from the manufacturing period, horsepower is the worst, partly because a horse has a head of its own Karl Marx
IMF on international bankruptcy
This article also has some relevance for how popular forces could stabilise the economy of Argentina in that it proposes new rules of international (imperialist) law. From Stop-IMF list In addition to the pieces below, more information on IMF thoughts on international bankruptcy proceedings from an Anne Krueger press conference, transcript of which is posted at http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2002/tr020401.htm. IMF outlines new plan for bankrupt countries to restructure debt: A judicial panel would need binding international powers to override litigation in national courts, reports Alan Beattie Financial Times; Apr 2, 2002 By ALAN BEATTIE Anne Krueger, the International Monetary Fund's second-in-command, called yesterday for a new international judicial panel to allow bankrupt governments to restructure their debt without being sued by private creditors. Ms Krueger said that such a procedure would need a change in the IMF constitution to create binding international rules which could override litigation in national courts. The speech was her first major intervention on the proposed bankruptcy procedure - often called the sovereign Chapter 11 after similar rules in US domestic bankruptcy law - since she declared IMF support for the radical plan in November. Since then, governments of several rich countries including the UK and France have declared their support in principle for such a procedure, while some private investors have argued against the idea. The case of Argentina, which has entered a chaotic and unplanned debt default, has also given the idea more prominence. Full article - http://www.iht.com/cgi-bin/generic.cgi?template=articleprint.tmplhArticleId=53973 Chris Burford
Tue., April 9: Remembering Deir Yassin + Protest the Israeli Occupation
Tuesday, April 9 Remembering Deir Yassin Time: 12:00 noon - 1:00 p.m. Location: 15th Ave. High St., Columbus, OH Early in the morning of April 9, 1948, commandos of the Irgun (headed by Menachem Begin) and the Stern Gang attacked Deir Yassin, a village with about 750 Palestinian residents. The village lay outside of the area to be assigned by the United Nations to the Jewish State; it had a peaceful reputation. But it was located on high ground in the corridor between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Deir Yassin was slated for occupation under Plan Dalet and the mainstream Jewish defense force, the Haganah, authorized the irregular terrorist forces of the Irgun and the Stern Gang to perform the takeover. In all, over 100 men, women, and children were systematically murdered. Fifty-three orphaned children were literally dumped along the wall of the Old City, where they were found by Miss Hind Husseini and brought behind the American Colony Hotel to her home, which was to become the Dar El-Tifl El-Arabi orphanage. The OSU Committee for Justice in Palestine will hold an event to commemorate the Deir Yassin massacre and to kick off a campaign to pressure the state of Israel to end its illegal occupation, human rights abuses, violations of international law. Contact: The OSU Committee for Justice in Palestine, [EMAIL PROTECTED] Download the flyer at http://www.osu.edu/students/CJP/DeirYassin.pdf. -- Yoshie * Calendar of Events in Columbus: http://www.osu.edu/students/sif/calendar.html * Anti-War Activist Resources: http://www.osu.edu/students/sif/activist.html * Student International Forum: http://www.osu.edu/students/sif/ * Committee for Justice in Palestine: http://www.osu.edu/students/CJP/
India takes baby steps to GM crops, Greens fume
Hindustantimes.com April 8, 2002 India takes baby steps to GM crops, Greens fume Reuters Mumbai , 06-04-2002 India's path-breaking move to allow commercial production of genetically modified (GM) cotton hybrids has raised prospects for other transgenic crops even though it could be years before most win approval, analysts say. In a nation of over a billion people, GM technology offers India the tool to boost abysmally low farm yields, raising hopes for more such crops like potato, tomato, rice and mustard. But the technique is strongly opposed by environmentalists and some farm groups who fear its effects on health and the environment. Only research projects were allowed before the government's decision last week which followed more than five years of extensive lab and field trials. We have allowed lab or field trials for nine GM crops, said Department of Biotechnology adviser PK Ghosh. It will take as long as five years to win approval for commercial planting since most of the research for the other crops are in the early stages and must pass lengthy tests, he said. The earliest to get off the blocks is likely to be mustard, whose oil is the most widely used in the preparation of food in northern India. Delhi-based Proagro PGS India Ltd, part of Aventis SA's Aventis Cropscience unit, plans to seek government approval later this year to commercially produce GM mustard. We have been working on genetically modified mustard hybrid for the past six years, said Paresh Verma, director (research) of Proagro Seed Company Ltd, another firm focusing on research. We are seeing 25 to 30 per cent more yield. BOOSTING YIELDS Traders say the gene-alteres Bt (bacillus thuringiensis) cotton is expected to raise the yields by controlling bollworm, responsible for over 80 per cent of pest attacks on Indian cotton. The average yield of cotton in India, the third largest producer in the world, is about half the global average of over 600 kg per hectare, despite having the largest area under cotton cultivation of nearly nine million hectares. The Bt cotton will break the yield barrier of about 300 kg per hectare in India, said East India Cotton Association president Suresh Kotak. India has allowed production of three GM cotton hybrids, developed by the Maharashtra Hybrid Seeds Company (Mahyco) in collaboration with US bio-technology giant Monsanto Co. Farm scientists say yields of Bt cotton could rise 15 to 30 per cent. Traders forecast output may touch about 20 million bales (of 170 kg each) in three to four years from nearly 16 million bales now. But the results may not be visible in the coming season beginning in May as Mahyco is unlikely to meet a spurt in seed demand. Mahyco had permission for limited seed production last year, said a spokeswoman of the Indian arm of Monsanto, adding that total seed available with the company would be sufficient only for 100,000 acres. Mahyco, in which Monsanto has a 26 per cent stake, started field trials of its Bt cotton in 1996-97. In the coming three years, I don't see another bio-tech crop from Monsanto reaching commercial stage in India, the Monsanto spokeswoman said. GREENS SEE RED While government officials and the industry hailed the decision to permit GM cotton, environmentalists slammed the move. The government has ignored some of the most serious problems of Bt cotton in its attempts to rush this product to the market, said Greenpeace India campaign director Ganesh Nochur. A spokeswoman for the Centre for Science and Environment said: Concerns relating to genetic contamination and health hazards should have been properly investigated before granting the approval. Delhi-based non-governmental group Research Foundation for Science, Technology and Ecology, said Bt cotton produced a toxin that triggered a rapid emergence of resistance in bollworm. Instead of the plant being resistant, the bollworm becomes resistant to Bt toxin, it said. But farm activist Sharad Joshi said the lobby of pesticide makers and pseudo-scientists had deprived Indian farmers for at least seven years in getting access to the GM technology. If it is dangerous, we can go back. But there is no point in closing the doors on the new technology. Send your feedback at [EMAIL PROTECTED] ©Hindustan Times Ltd. 1997. Reproduction in any form is prohibited without prior permission.
PBS documentary on the global economy
Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/ Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy is a three-part, six-hour documentary series and Web site. Providing a comprehensive history of the ideas, events, and values that have shaped the present global economy, the Commanding Heights Web site examines the history of the global economy and demonstrates how key economic theories have evolved in the context of historical events. The three-part television series includes: Part One -- The Battle of Ideas -- which aired last Wednesday, April 3rd at 9pm; Part Two -- The Agony of Reform -- which airs this Wednesday, April 10th at 9pm; and Part Three -- The New Rules of the Game -- which airs Wednesday, April 17th at 9pm. Internet users not able to view the television series will have the opportunity to watch streaming online videos of all three programs. The Commanding Heights Web site is available in both high and low bandwidth versions, offering a time map, an interactive atlas of economic history that allows users to track changes in political boundaries and major shifts in economic policies in more than thirty nations from 1910 to the present, and an online forum for users to discuss contemporary economic issues raised by the broadcast. Forthcoming is an online teachers' guide that will provide suggestions for applications of the Web site in classroom instruction. This guide will be available in versions for both high school and post-secondary educators. [MG]
PK on possible oil crisis
New York TIMES/April 9, 2002 The Third Oil Crisis? By PAUL KRUGMAN In 1973 an Arab embargo sent oil prices soaring, and a global recession followed. In 1979 the Iranian revolution provoked a second surge in oil prices, and another global recession. Are we now at risk of a third oil crisis? I wish I could say no, but I can't. Oil prices have risen about $10 per barrel since the situation in the Middle East began deteriorating. So even if they stay where they are, this represents a serious shock to the system - and there could be more to come. True, political analysts assure us that despite Iraq's decision to stop oil exports for a month, no broader, 1973-style oil embargo is likely. Let's hope they're right. But the 1979 oil crisis wasn't the result of a deliberate embargo. Economists have never reached a consensus about what happened in 1979, but my interpretation is that it was similar to the recent California electricity crisis. In both cases the key was the combination of a tight market and demand that wasn't very responsive to price. Under those circumstances, individual producers - power companies in California, oil-producing countries in 1979 - have a lot of market power. That is, it is in each producer's interest to cut back production to drive prices higher. The result is a price surge, even though there is no real capacity shortage. Are world oil markets that tight? Not yet - the world still has about seven million barrels' worth of spare capacity each day. So Iraq, by taking away its two million barrels a day, cannot create a crisis by itself. But the remaining slack in the system is just about equal to the combined production of Iran and Libya, which have also proposed an embargo. The point is that it would not take much worsening in the political situation to produce markets so tight that the logic of market power kicks in and countries decide that, quite aside from politics, their financial interest lies in reducing, not increasing, their output. If an oil crisis can happen so easily, why haven't we had one since 1979? The answer is that we made ourselves crisis-proof for a while, then became complacent. After the oil crises of the 1970's, Western economies sharply increased their energy efficiency: the U.S. economy was a third bigger in 1985 than it was in 1973, but it consumed less oil. The result was the marginalization of the danger zone: in 1985, the Persian Gulf produced only 18 percent of the world's oil, less than half of its share in 1973. But rapidly growing oil consumption in the S.U.V. era was met, inevitably, by increased Persian Gulf production. So oil prices are once again hostage to Middle Eastern politics. If oil prices do surge, will this have the same disastrous effects as the price spike in 1979? No, but it may have different disastrous effects. In 1979 the clear and present danger from soaring oil prices was that they would send already inflation-prone Western economies into an out-of-control inflationary spiral. To fight that, all the leading economies raised interest rates - which controlled inflation, but also generated a nasty recession. Today, after a decade of price stability, fears of inflation are much more muted. Instead, the main concern is the drag of oil prices on purchasing power. Each $10-per-barrel increase in the price of oil is like a $70 billion tax increase, one that falls most heavily on middle- and lower-income families. And this is not a good time to slash purchasing power. Business investment, which plunged last year, has still not recovered; optimistic economic forecasts depend on the assumption that buoyant consumer spending will keep the economy afloat until businesses do decide to invest again. If consumers are made poorer by higher oil prices and cut back instead, that assumption goes out the window. And the Fed can't respond with another big round of interest rate cuts: since it has already reduced rates from 6.5 to 1.75 percent, it doesn't have much ammunition left. So I'm sorry to say that under current conditions, a third oil crisis could indeed happen. It doesn't have to happen: a diplomatic breakthrough could calm oil markets, and even if oil prices rise, the U.S. economy may be more robust than I fear. But it's easier to tell a downbeat, even scary, story than any of us would like. comments? Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
Asian Monetary Fund
Maybe Charles J. and Rob say a few words about this? Sabri + April 9: Asian Currency Swap Agreements May Lead To Monetary Fund Location: Shanghai Author: RiskCenter Staff Date: Tuesday, April 9, 2002 A series of currency swap agreements that Asian nations signed over the past year could eventually become a formal Asian Monetary Fund. The idea of an Asian Monetary Fund, first proposed by Japan and vehemently opposed by the United States, is still being considered, said Rodolfo Severino, the secretary-general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It has been delayed. Short of that, we are embarking on a network of bilateral swap agreements, he told reporters during a two-day conference of finance ministers of ASEAN countries. After the outbreak of Asia's 1997 financial crisis, Japan proposed creating an Asia-only fund to support regional currencies should a similar crisis ever recur. But the idea was shot down by the United States, which insisted the International Monetary Fund should remain the lender of last resort in the event of financial shocks. Bilateral swap agreements were proposed at a May 2000 meeting of the 10 ASEAN members and Japan, China and Korea, and so far six have been signed involving a total of dlrs 14 billion. Japan has signed bilateral deals with Korea, China, Thailand, Philippines and Malaysia, while China has one with Thailand. More swap agreements are still being negotiated. The deals allow central banks to borrow foreign currency in the short term, repaying it with their domestic currency at a later date. The extra liquidity the deals provide is intended to both deter currency speculation and reduce the severity of its effects. It's a seed, Philippine Finance Minister Jose Isidro Camacho said of the bilateral swap agreements. That's really something that can evolve into something more formal. An Asian Monetary Fund is a good concept, he said, but added We don't go from where we are now to that overnight. While some analysts have been skeptical of the efficacy of the swap agreements in the event of a real crisis, Camacho defended the deals, partially by pointing to the possibility of expanding them into a larger regional structure. If these structures were around, I think the 1997 (financial crisis) could have been subdued, Camacho said. But more swap agreements aren't expected to be announced at the ASEAN meeting, which ends Saturday. Officials said further deals are likely to be signed at a May meeting in Shanghai of finance ministers from ASEAN and Japan, South Korea and China, the so-called ASEAN Plus Three grouping. ASEAN members are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Full article at: http://www.riskcenter.com/cgi-bin/article.pl?id=4681
Krueger v. Taylor
IMF Reform Plan Makes Comeback U.S. Eases Stand on 'Bankruptcy' Idea By Paul Blustein Washington Post Staff Writer Tuesday, April 9, 2002; Page E04 The International Monetary Fund's proposed bankruptcy procedure for troubled countries came back from the dead yesterday -- thanks to the U.S. Treasury, which last week appeared to have killed the idea. The IMF should continue developing its proposal, said Randal Quarles, assistant Treasury secretary for international affairs, because although the IMF's plan would take much longer to implement than a different approach favored by Treasury officials, We support the fund's work on their approach as well. Those words contrasted with comments made last Tuesday by Quarles's boss, Treasury Undersecretary John Taylor, who seemed to dismiss the IMF proposal by referring to it as an academic exercise and emphasizing the urgency of advancing the Treasury plan. The latest twist in the Treasury position could help bridge an unusually public rift between the IMF and its dominant shareholder, the U.S. government, over one of the thorniest issues in the global economy: how to rewrite the rules of international finance to contain crises like the ones that struck emerging markets in Asia and Latin America in recent years. Last fall, the IMF and the Treasury appeared to have similar views. Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill told a congressional hearing that he had talked with top fund officials about an international bankruptcy law, which he hoped would offer a better approach for resolving crises than multibillion-dollar IMF bailout loans. In November, IMF Deputy Managing Director Anne O. Krueger advanced a proposal under which the fund would give countries protection from creditors of the sort companies get under the U.S. bankruptcy code -- a radical move that would require a change in the IMF's charter. But Treasury officials later hinted they were uncomfortable with Krueger's plan and that they preferred an alternative, known as collective action clauses, in which countries and their creditors would agree on new contracts making it easier to restructure burdensome debts. The disparity in views spilled into the open last week at a conference on the issue, at which Krueger presented a modified version of her plan, followed the next day by Taylor's speech calling for the use of collective action clauses. When asked whether he was suggesting it was no longer worthwhile to consider the IMF plan, Taylor said that as a former professor, he abhorred the idea of stifling academic research. But he also said the debate over various options had gone on too long, asserting that the time had come to induce countries and creditors to adopt collective action clauses. My message is, we should get on with it, he said. The dismissive tone of those remarks shocked some IMF officials and drew criticism from some commentators who favor an international bankruptcy mechanism. But Treasury officials maintained yesterday that they had never meant to convey such a negative stance. Quarles, who was sworn in last week as assistant secretary, was brought to the department's press room to speak with wire service reporters -- a tradition for newly inducted Treasury officials -- and when asked about the issue, he said there had been a misunderstanding. I was a little surprised at the reaction some had to Taylor's speech, Quarles said in a telephone interview. It was his intention to be encouraging. The view we've always had is that the two approaches are complementary; [they] aren't exclusive of one another, Quarles said. The [Treasury] approach is easier to start up quickly, while there's obviously a longer ramp-up time on the [IMF's] approach. The IMF declined to comment.
Re: Re: Turkey
Sabri, Here in Mexico we also said, a few years back, we still have a few state enterprises to sell, and there came the infamous Tequila effect. We were also too big to fail. Cheers, ignacio t 03:47 p.m. 08/04/02 -0700, you wrote: Michael writes: With Turkey qualify as too big to fail within the context of the war on terrorism? Michael, If I am not wrong, this is a response to my statement about the nearing collapse of Turkey. Who knows maybe I am overly pessimistic but I don't see any other way out and think that the collapse will most likely be followed by a military coup to hold the country together with severe repression. We still have a few state enterprises to sell but what will happen after they are gone? If the Turkish military engages in a military operation, it will cost money too. Who is going to pay all these bills? However big Turkey is to fail, will/can US pick up the entire tab? If not, will EU agree to share? Sabri
Pass it on: Help Soweto protesters in their fight for dignity and justice
An update, for allies of the struggle for social justice in South Africa: Last night, well-known Soweto activist Trevor Ngwane and 49 other progressive community/labour activists were involuntarily moved to one of apartheid South Africa's most notorious prisons, Diepkloof, to sit another week while their home addresses are being confirmed by the lethargic Johannesburg courts. The state appears intent on maximising the persecution of the Soweto Electricity Crisis Committee, notwithstanding * growing concern that the justice system is being abused for political purposes by the ruling party, and * growing local and international delegitimisation of the host city for the August-September 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development. The Soweto comrades are merely asking that the African National Congress-ruled municipality keep its campaign promises of free basic (lifeline) services and, in the process, end the evictions, water/electricity cut-offs and prosecutions of poor people whose only crime is that they cannot afford water and electricity that are being inexorably privatised. They arrived to protest nonviolently on Saturday, and were met with gunfire (live rounds) that wounded two protesters. Below please find: * letter from Anti-Privatisation Forum treasurer; * email addresses for letters to the authorities (please be firm and polite in demanding the 50 protesters' release!); * today's press reports (from the big-business media); * the Anti-Privatisation Forum's latest leaflet. For more information, stay tuned to http://southafrica.indymedia.org Trevor and the 49 other comrades will welcome your support, and their organisations will welcome you to Johannesburg in late August when a people's summit will unveil the hypocrisies of neoliberal sustainable development in the allegedly-liberated South Africa. *** From: Florencia Belvedere [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, April 09, 2002 2:31 PM Subject: How people can help Dear all, Thanks for your support of the SECC comrades. The APF and the SECC are currently exploring the possibility of bringing a High Court interdict to appeal the 7-day extension. Counsel that we have consulted are also concerned about the bail hearing coming up on April 16th, as they are concerned that the state might try to pull all kinds of technicalities to deny comrades bail. There is likely to be a drawn out legal case to follow and therefore we will need financial assistance of whatever kind or sort. We have some legal funds, but not enough to cover all costs. Our lawyer is helping us pro-bono, but this is not likely to be the case with an advocate. So, if comrades want to assist, they can deposit or transfer money into the APF account. This money will be set aside for the SECC. The APF's bank details follow. Account Name: Anti-Privatisation Forum Bank: First National Bank, South Africa Branch: Bank City Bank Address: Block A, #3 First Place, Bank City, FNB, Johannesburg, 2000 Branch Code: 250805(00) Account Number: 62027851452 Type of Account: Cheque Swift Code: FIRN ZAJJA046 Telephone: 011 352 1338/492 3321/492 3345 Contact Person: Vanitha Maharaj Please help us get this message far and wide (both locally and overseas). We will be holding a mass meeting at Funda Centre in Soweto on Saturday, April 13th. See attached flyer for more details. Yours in struggle to free the Kensington 50! Florencia Belvedere Treasurer, Anti-Privatisation Forum For sending emails to demand the release of the Soweto protesters: - Original Message - Subject: Email addresses Senior Prosecutor's office in Johannesburg. Prosecuting Attorney's email address is: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Mayor Amos Masondo's email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] - Original Message - Today's NewsTuesday 9th April 2002 The Star9/4/2002 Electricity protestors to stay in jail for a week by Anna Cox Fifty Soweto residents who participated in the trashing of the home of Johannesburg's executive mayor will spend the next seven days in jail. The 50, part of a group of 87 members of the Soweto Electricity Crisis Committee (SECC) that were arrested on Saturday, were remanded in prison while the police verified their addresses. Yesterday, 37 protestors, mainly the elderly, youths and the sick were released by the Jeppe Magistrates Court. On Saturday, more than a hundred SECC members had gathered outside mayor Amos Masondo's Kensington home protesting and chanting slogans. The protestors trashed Masondo's place, threw rubbish around the garden, banging on te doors and damaged his garage door, while his wife and children were locked inside the house. The SECC has accused the governmetn of politicising the event and putting pressure on court officials not to release the accused. SECC spokesperson Phillip Matseoane said this was a mockery of democracy. We have child rapists and murderers walking the streets yet a few protestors who were
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, APRIL 9, 2002: Labor shortages caused when baby boomers retire will slow economic growth in the United States and could plunge the fastest-aging countries in Europe and Asia into permanent recession, according to a summary of a report released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Commission on Global aging. Three factors are creating the impending crisis: the shrinking proportion of young people entering the workforce throughout the developed world, the inevitable liquidation of savings by baby boomers in their retirement years, and medical advances that keep people living longer. But labor shortages will lead labor-intensive work to be outsourced to the developing world, while immigration will help to fill skilled worker bottlenecks. Investment in fast-growing emerging markets will achieve the best stock market returns, these experts predict. The CSIS commission proposed 55 steps that aging countries might take to blunt the impact of the coming boomer economic bust. Among them: boosting labor force participation by women and the elderly, relaxing some immigration and citizenship laws, and providing tax breaks to encourage couples to have children (The Washington Post, page A17). Wholesalers reduced inventories again in February, the Commerce Department reports. Inventories fell 0.7 percent, a ninth consecutive decline that left suppliers at a 2-year low. Sales at wholesalers rose 0.8 percent in February, setting the stage for a rebound in manufacturing and a sustained economic recovery (Bloomberg News, The New York Times, page C7; http://www.latimes.com/business/la-25252apr09.story?coll=%2Dheadlines%2D business). Education increases income, says USA Today, in its page 3B box showing median household income, based on education. According to it, households in which there is a professional degree have an income of $100,000; those with a doctorate degree, $97,325; households in which there is a Masters degree have an income of $74,476; those with a bachelor's degree $64,406; households with an associate degree, $49,279; those with some college, no degree, $44,149; households that include a high school graduate, $35,744; households with an education consisting of ninth to 12th grade, $21,737, and households that include someone with below a ninth grade education, $17,261. Income is based on 1999 data from the U.S. Census and the College Board. DUE OUT TOMORROW: Lost-Worktime Injuries and Illnesses: Characteristics and Resulting Time Away from Work, 2000 application/ms-tnef
Re: BLS Daily Report
From today's BLS daily report: Education increases income, says USA Today, in its page 3B box showing median household income, based on education. According to it, households in which there is a professional degree have an income of $100,000; those with a doctorate degree, $97,325; households in which there is a Masters degree have an income of $74,476; those with a bachelor's degree $64,406; households with an associate degree, $49,279; those with some college, no degree, $44,149; households that include a high school graduate, $35,744; households with an education consisting of ninth to 12th grade, $21,737, and households that include someone with below a ninth grade education, $17,261. Income is based on 1999 data from the U.S. Census and the College Board. Here is an anecdote from a former hiring authority: Not that long ago, I was asked to hire a few recent graduates for some data entry jobs. Without exception, the ones I hired were very smart young fellows with bachelor' s degrees from respectable universities like UC Berkeley, Brown, Tulane and the like. What these young fellows with degrees in economics, physics, mathematics, engineering and the like were making were about $25,000 or so. Most of these young men and women accepted the jobs because they were interested in some experience that would help them go to an MBA program. Now, how does this compare to the above mentioned $64,406 for the median household with a bachelor's degree? What kind of a household is this median household and how relevant it is to look at the median in this context? By the way, you don't need degrees in those areas for data entry, nor you have any hope to save enough to apply for an MBA degree at a decent school here in Berkeley, unless your family has the means to support you. So most of these young men and women were stuck with boring jobs with nowhere to go. Hey, I also hired a few science Ph.Ds from very respectable schools for boring programing jobs (Ravi would know what I mean if I say they were required to write FORTRAN programs) for about $50K. Something is wrong with this USA Today picture or was I working at a firm/firms from Mars? Sabri
[Fwd: Joke (I hope)]
Original Message Subject: Joke (I hope) Date: Tue, 09 Apr 2002 16:36:36 -0400 From: Richard Fidler [EMAIL PROTECTED] Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: Marxism list [EMAIL PROTECTED] February 8, 2011 New MS Word Feature Checks Files for Copyright Infringement REDMOND--A bundle of feature updates and add-ons released Monday to subscribers of Microsoft's popular word-processor service Word includes a new digital rights management, or DRM, feature designed to facilitate the use of copyrighted material in documents written using the service. We're very excited about the new [copyright advisor] tool, explains Microsoft VP of Circumstantial Features Edmund Raunch. For hundreds of years there's been a lot of legal uncertainty surrounding the writing process. How would you know, for example, if what you were writing was infringing somebody else's copyright unless you knew everything that had already been written. Well, we've tackled that uncertainty and just blown it away. Known informally as the Mouse, the feature involves a context-appropriate pop-up avatar in the likeness of Disney's famous cartoon character. Disney actually approached us concerning a branding alliance on the feature, explains Raunch. They're very dedicated to the whole copyright and rights management issue and wanted to be actively involved in the development of the Advisor. The advisor works in much the same way as conventional spell-checking and grammar-checking features, monitoring documents on-the-fly as they are created and flagging any potential problems for the user. Once a potentially infringing passage is identified, the Advisor materializes and offers a number of options, including suggested, non-infringing re-phrasings, and an option to pursue automated negotiation for a licensing micro-payment to cover the use of the copyrighted material. The advisor identifies potential infringement by checking documents against those stored in a centralized registry database maintained by the company. The registry also functions as a clearinghouse for licensing transactions involving registered materials. We're very happy to offer registration in the Advisor's database free of charge to content creators, notes Raunch. We recover our costs by taking a small slice of each of the licensing transactions. During a feature demonstration, the advisor proved adept at identifying direct copying, noting almost instantly that Call me Ishmael was taken from Moby Dick, a book once, but no longer, in the public domain. In a cheerful voice, Mickey suggested alternatives, including My name is Ishmael and Call me Ichabod, and also offered to license the phrase for 8 cents in fewer than 50 copies of the document. More impressive was the advisor's ability to identify potential derivative uses, including creation of sequels and so-called fan fiction. With fewer tell-tale details than the words Kirk, logic, and pointy ears, Mickey was able to suggest that we seek license from Paramount for creation of a work derivative of its Star Trek franchise. The feature is not without its critics, many of whom emphasize the Adivsor's power to delete unlicensed language it deems to infringe another's copyright. This is putting too much power in the hands of Microsoft, notes Information Without Borders director Janet Pullet. The advisor enforces their view of copyright law, and that may be much more limiting of traditional fair use rights than even current law is. Responding to critics, Microsoft's Raunch pointed to the company's obligations under recent extensions to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act: I'm not a lawyer, but from what I understand, word processors are considered 'circumvention' devices because you can type in any document you want and just save and copy it. Because of that, we're obligated, by law, to enforce copyright to the extent technically feasible, and that's just what the advisor does. For more stories, or for a free email subscription, visit us at http://futurefeedforward.com For a history of the future, see our timeline at http://futurefeedforward.com/timeline.php For an archive of our stories, see http://futurefeedforward.com/archive.php ~~~ PLEASE clip all extraneous text before replying to a message.
RE: inevitable textbook query
I have two books here that are worth taking a look at: Microeconomics: Neoclassical and Institutionalist Perspectives on Economic Behavior by Susan Himmelweit, Roberto Simonetti and Andrew Trigg; Thomson Learning, 2001. Alternative Principles of Economics by Stanley Bober, M. E. Sharpe, 2001. One of my favorites was Mayo Toruno's Political Economics of Capitalism, but my understanding is it is out of print, but there may be a new edition forthcoming. Of the mainstream one's I liked Roger Arnold for micro, even though it is ideologically repugnant. Ditto Ekelund and Tollison for macro. I have a theory about mainstream macro economics texts. It is that the more conservative neoclassical and public choice types do a better presentation of the Keynesian theory, and the more 'Keynesian' types do a better presentation of the neoclassical theory. The reason is that both sides bend over backwards to show they are not 'biased' and in so doing actually do a better job on the theory they don't support.
More textbook questions
From Martin Watts: I would like to widen Jim's textbook question to ask what textbooks Pen-lers would recommend in a 3 year program of undergraduate micro and also what would be a coherent sequence of topics over the 3 years. I should add that good students here in Australia have the option of a 4th year Honours program where a more mathematical tratment of topics is provided. Thanks. Kind regards Martin Watts -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: Asian Monetary Fund
The problems are: 1. anger over the recent depreciation of the yen (though even PM Mahathir said he wouldn't think about devaluing the ringgit until the yen reached 140 to the dollar) 2. the continuing recession in Japan which prevents it from leading on the issue or being Mr. Moneybags for the region The US hits point number 2 very hard because it doesn't want Japan challenging it for domination of the region. This is about hegemony through discourse, and no one has it down like the US government (which is why the NSC is the ruling council and meets concerning everything under the sun, not just military deployments). I think a currency and trade bloc may well be the only way E. and SE Asia can stand up to the US's NAFTA and the EU in a coherent fashion, but it seems doubtful that the Japanese can do it. Still this bit of news might be a step in that direction. If they can do it, it will be because Koizumi has jettisoned some of the naive 'market reformers'. The problem is the old-style Japanese nationalists stick their feet in their mouths as soon as they give any opinion at all about the rest of Asia. If it happens it will be because of people most of us know next to nothing about emerging and governing Japan. But then again, maybe they don't exist. Charles Jannuzi
