BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, MAY 29, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: In April, 290 metropolitan areas had higher unemployment rates than a year earlier, 31 areas had lower rates, and 10 areas had rates that were unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Thirteen metropolitan areas posted jobless rates of 10.0 percent or more, eight of which were located in California's Central Valley. Twenty-one areas had unemployment rates below 3.0 percent, with eight in the South, seven in the Midwest, and four in the Northeast. The national unemployment rate in April was 5.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted. Each quarter, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports on overall productivity trends. But it's less well-known that the BLS issues this data annually on productivity growth in individual industries, says the Economic Trends feature of Business Week (May 27, page 30). The latest such report, recently released, goes through 2000. It shows which industries were the productivity leaders and the laggards over the last decade. And it offers some useful insights into productivity gains in service industries such as retailing and transportation. Among those at the top of the heap are nonstore retailers, including online and catalog sales. Their productivity grew at a 9 percent annual rate in the 1990s. By contrast, productivity fell in several service sector industries, including grocery stores and cable TV. In the long economic expansions of the 1980's and 1990's the wealth of middle Americans seemed to rise. Their stock portfolios and home ownership gave them the appearance of growing richer. But now it turns out that net worth went down, not up, according to Edward N. Wolff, a New York University economist. Middle Americans are not the 20 percent of all households whose breadwinners are paid $75,000 a year or more. Those households have increased their total wealth since 1983, the starting point of Wolff's study. That is not the case for the median household, with an annual income of $50,000 or so, and whose breadwinners are 47 to 64. They suffered perhaps a 13.5 percent decline in wealth, when their present net worth is adjusted for inflation (New York Times, Money Business Section, May 26, page 4). Personal income increased 0.3 percent in April, following a 0.4 percent increase in March, according to figures released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. During the same period, consumers increased spending at an annual rate of 0.5 percent. Mark Vitner, Wachovia Securities economist, said the gains in personal income were insufficient to offset the effect of taxes and inflation. Most of the increase in personal consumption expenditures was in nondurable goods (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). While the U.S. economy continues to recover from last year's slump, the pace of recovery is slowing from the first quarter's strong gains, several economic reports have indicated. Consumer spending for goods and services rose 0.5 percent last month, somewhat less than analysts had expected, with purchases of durable goods such as new motor vehicles responsible for most of the increase, the Commerce Department says. After adjustment for inflation, the increase was 0.2 percent. Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.3 percent in April, partly because of an increase in unemployment benefits paid under a law allowing an additional 13 weeks of eligibility for people who had exhausted their regular 26 weeks of benefits. The wages and salary component of income rose only 0.1 percent (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, page E1). Consumers have remained optimistic and kept spending -- especially when it comes to homes -- during the current quarter. But pressures on consumer finances are starting to emerge, which could cloud the recovery if business investment doesn't rebound soon. Sales of pre-existing homes surged 7 percent in April from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.79 million units, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday. That sales pace, the third highest ever, was only slightly below the record 6.05 million-unit rate reached in January, and it confounded expectations that the housing market would slow as summer approached (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Consumer confidence edged higher in May, but the expectations of Americans fell for a second month, a business research report said yesterday providing further suggestions that the recovery is likely to slow in coming months. The Commerce Department, in a separate report, said that consumer spending rose for a fifth consecutive month in April. And the National Association of Realtors reported that the sales of existing homes surged 7 percent in April. Over all, economists said, the reports suggested that consumers were likely to keep supporting the economy until businesses began investing and hiring again (Reuters, The New York Times, page C7). The nation's factories, hardest hit by last
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MAY 24, 2002: The economy snapped back from last year's recession, growing at an annual rate of 5.6 percent during the first quarter, the strongest performance in nearly 2 years. The latest reading on the first-quarter gross domestic product, which measures the total output of goods and services produced within the United States -- showed that the economy grew a little less briskly than the 5.8 percent rate estimated a month ago, the Commerce Department reports today. Even so, the revised first-quarter performance was remarkable, given that the economy actually shrank at a 1.3 percent rate in the third quarter of 2001. GDP grew at a below-par 1.7 percent rate in the fourth quarter (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/412347p-3285934c.html). Sales of new homes in the United States increased 1.0 percent in April, the Commerce Department said today, as low mortgage rates kept luring buyers. New single-family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 915,000 units last month, a climb from the upwardly revised pace of 906,000 units in March. April home sales exceeded the expectations of analysts polled by Reuters, who had forecast a pace of 882,000 units (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2002-05-24-new-homes.htm). Companies ordered more equipment in April, but the increase wasn't enough to signal a decisive -- and greatly anticipated -- end to the long drought in business investment. Government data showed a 1.9 percent gain in orders for nondefense capital goods, one proxy for capital spending.. The advance suggested the painful decline in business spending last year has started to reverse itself. But the increase wasn't enough to erase a 3.1 percent drop in March, and volatility in orders data in recent months has made it hard to identify a clearly positive trend. Economists are focusing on capital spending because they believe business investment must pick up sharply before a full-fledged recovery takes hold (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a total of 416,000 during the week ending May 18, according to the Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor. Extended benefits were available in Alaska, Idaho, Oregon and Washington during the week ending May 4 (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MAY 28, 2002: About 6,000 U.S. workers die on the job each year, according to a new report from the AFL-CIO, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, says The Washington Post (page F1). Worldwide, about 5,000 workers die of work-related causes each day, according to a report released last week by the International Labor Organization, a United Nations agency based in Geneva. Both in the United States and abroad, the riskiest jobs are in construction, where workers fall off scaffolds or get objects dropped on their heads, and in agriculture, where workers get run over by threshing machines, suffer heat exhaustion, or inhale pesticides. Each year 170,000 farm workers and 55,000 construction workers are killed on the job, the ILO reports. In the United States, immigrants are at particular risk, dying at higher rates while working than the native-born population. According to BLS statistics, the annual workplace death rate for foreign-born Hispanic workers is 5.6 per 100,000 workers, compared with 4.3 for the native-born population. For workers here and abroad, automobile crashes, sometimes caused by fatigue, are a particular hazard. The ILO recommends that workers get at least 6 or 7 hours of rest each night and try to ensure they have at least 11 hours of down time in the interval between leaving work at night and starting again in the morning. In the U.S. in 2000, highway accidents caused 1,363 worker deaths, according to BLS. (Fatal accidents involving workers commuting to or from their jobs were not included in this tally). Scott Richardson, a BLS economist who tracks workplace fatalities, says variations in workplace fatalities are often caused by the mix of industries in each state. He said that Alaska, Wyoming and Montana have a higher ratio of more perilous jobs. It's very difficult to compare rates state-by-state because of the different industries, because it includes states with safe industries and states with high-risk industries, Richardson said. He said that fishing in the icy waters of Alaska and mining and agriculture jobs found in Wyoming and Montana are more dangerous than, say, the desk jobs found in the District or Northern Virginia. Comparisons should be made with great caution, Richardson says. It is estimated 2 million workers worldwide die each year from job-related accidents and diseases, and in 80 percent of the cases, the fatalities could have been prevented, the International Labor Organization says. Although work-related fatal accidents decreased in wealthier nations between 1990 and 2000 and slightly increased in poor countries during that period, work-related deaths overall have been on the rise. One reason the number of worker deaths grew over the past decade is that work-related cancer cases and circulatory disorders such as hypertension have increased. Also, previous ILO statistics did not count the number of work-related communicable diseases, such as hepatitis, the report says. The biggest workplace killer, the ILO found, is cancer, which causes about 640,000 -- or 32 percent -- of job-related deaths. Asbestos alone claims some 100,000 lives annually. The second major cause of on-the-job fatalities is circulatory disease (23 percent), followed by fatal accidents (19 percent) and communicable disease (17 percent) (Daily Labor Report, page A-7). The economy grew more slowly in the first quarter of 2002 than initially estimated, the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce says, issuing a revised growth estimate of 5.6 percent, following a preliminary estimate of 5.8 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-1; Bloomberg News, The New York Times, May 25, page B2; The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Consumer confidence nudged up, shoppers opened their pocketbooks wider and sales of previously owned homes jumped, suggesting that the nation's economic recovery remains on track. The Conference Board reports today that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 109.8 in May, up from a revised 108.5 in April. Another report released by the Commerce Department showed that consumers increased their spending by 0.5 percent in April, on top of a 0.3 percent advance the month before. In a third report, sales of existing homes shot up to a rate of 5.79 million in April, a 7 percent increase over March's level, according to the National Association of Realtors. April's performance marked the third highest monthly sales pace on record (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/business/V4200.htm). European Union workers have failed to close the gap with the United States when it comes to productivity, as most workers in the 15 EU-member states are 20 percent less efficient, the European Commission said in a new report on the competitiveness of industry in the 15 member states. In addition, the European Commission said European workers in general have 2 years less education than
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MAY 20, 2002: Unemployment rates increased in 23 states in April and decreased in 20 states and the District of Columbia, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The unemployment rate in seven states remained unchanged from March. For the first time in a year, BLS said, North Dakota did not post the lowest unemployment rate in the country. That distinction went to South Dakota, with a 3.4 percent jobless rate, while Iowa and North Dakota both had rates of 3.6 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-8). Home prices have soared so high that affording housing is a problem not just for the poor but for middle-class families as well, experts say. The run-up in single-family home prices is crowding out solidly middle-class households from buying, says Bruce Katz, director of the Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy at the Brookings Institution. The median price of a U.S. home rose more than 6 percent in 2001 to $147,500. That's great news for homeowners, but it has made the dream of owning a home out of reach for a growing number of people. It also has led to a boom in the rental market. Home prices are accelerating as low mortgage rates, growing incomes and tax incentives entice more people to buy. The increase in demand has put a squeeze on the housing market. That's led to a sharp price gain that has shown no sign of abating, despite last year's recession (USA Today, page 1A). A key gauge of U.S. economic activity fell in April, after an uptick the previous month, suggesting a recovery that is quite sluggish, a private research firm said today. The New York-based Conference Board reported its Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined 0.4 percent last month to 111.7 after rising 0.1 in March. Analysts had forecast a 0.1 percent decrease. The signal from the indicators is that the recovery is developing quite slowly, Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said. Despite the strong growth in Gross Domestic Product in the first quarter, the recovery in the industrial core remains weak (Associated Press, http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A44570-2002May20.html). U.S. consumers hit stores and new car showrooms in droves in April, giving retail sales their biggest boost since last fall, the Commerce Department says. Retail sales rose an unexpectedly strong 1.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted $300.27 billion in April. Sales at building-material and supplies dealers rose 2.7 percent, their fourth straight monthly gain, and sales at gasoline stations were up 2 percent. The only retail categories to register declines were furniture outlets, food-and-beverage stores, and sporting goods shops. The consumer price index also increased last month, at 0.6 percent. Higher energy prices drove much of that increase (http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0520/p14s02-wmgn.html). In the 2001 recession, U.S. corporations slashed capital spending and cut millions of jobs. Curiously, though, one thing didn't suffer -- pay raises. In the first quarter, wages and salaries after inflation rose at a strong annual rate of 2.8 percent. That's a bigger inflation-adjusted gain than in any calendar year of the 1990s. One reason that pay gains remained strong during the recession was that unemployment remained low, averaging under 5 percent for all of 2001. But even though the economy is recovering, the jobless rate is still going up, hitting 6 percent in April. That's the highest level in 8 years -- and with corporate job cuts continuing, many economists believe it could go higher later this year. But there's good reason to believe workers will continue to earn healthy pay raises for the rest of 2002, albeit not quite as strong as over the past year. That's because of continued strong growth in productivity, which measures how much each worker produces per hour. And competition will force companies to share some of the savings with consumers in the form of lower prices, predicts James W. Paulson, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, a St. Louis-based economic consulting firm, predicts real wage gains of 1.6 percent for all of 2002. Productivity is the key. The Labor Department reported May 7 that U.S. workers' hourly output rose at a stunning annual rate of 8.6 percent in the first quarter. Because employees produced more while working fewer hours, the labor cost for companies to produce each unit of output plunged at a 5.4 percent annual rate (Business Week, May 20, page 42). Too many workers? Not for long, predicts Business Week (May 20, page 126). It says employers face a wrenching manpower and skills shortage. If companies become hard up for labor, managers will try to hang onto workers the way they did in the 1950s and 1960s. Employers may feel the need to rewrite pensions and early retirement plans to keep aging boomers. Indeed, Americans' entire view about when to retire
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MAY 21, 2002: With a stock market bust, a recession that wiped out almost two million jobs, and the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, Americans would seem to have plenty of reasons to worry about a diminished future. Instead, they have emerged from the nation's recent turmoil far more optimistic than after any other economic downturn in a generation, writes David Leonhardt in The New York Times (page A1). In a survey by the University of Michigan, for example, half of those polled said that they believe that the next 5 years will bring continuous good times, more than did at any point from 1970 to 1996 and up from a low of 8 percent in 1975. Persistent cold and rainy weather in many parts of the country last week crimped sales of spring merchandise in U.S. chain stores, leaving overall sales mostly unchanged for the week, two reports showed today. U.S. chain store sales were flat in the week ended May 18 after a 0.5 percent decline in the prior week, the bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg reported in their Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot. Unfavorable spring weather continued to play havoc with weather dependent merchandise demand, BTM said. Separately, Instinet Research's weekly Redbook Average of sales slipped 0.3 percent in the first 2 weeks of May compared with the same period last month (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/retail/2002-05-21-weather-sales.htm). Job openings for college grads are down 20 percent from last year. As a result, many are accepting lower entry-level salaries, according to a graph in Business Week (May 6, page 8). The graph's breakdown of 2002 beginning pay for computer science is $50,352, a change of minus 3.6 percent from 2001; engineering, $48,251, a change of minus 2.0 percent from 2001; accounting, $40,293, an increase of 3.2 percent; business administration, $35,209, a decrease of 7.1 percent; and liberal arts, $28,667, a decrease of 5.6 percent. Source of the data is the National Association of Colleges and Employers. Anxious college seniors are practically begging for work, says Business Week (May 6, page 10). Yet grads at elite universities such as Harvard and Cornell and state schools such as Virginia are taking the Graduation Pledge, promising to enter the workforce bearing in mind social and environmental responsibility. More than 100 colleges and universities now participate, up from only a handful 6 years ago, when the pledge started spreading nationwide. Student organizers and administrators have enlisted at least 10,000 students so far. The days of tightly controlled managed care may be coming to an end, writes Howard Gleckman in Business Week (May 6, page 100). The new world of health care will offer more choice: You'll pick your own doctors and hospitals and have more say over which drugs you get. But you are also going to pay lots more. Call it choice at a price. Already workers are paying more for their medical plans. And with costs projected to rise 12.7 percent this year, 40 percent of large employers expect to shift more expenses to their workers, according to a 2001 survey by the consulting firm Mercer. I don't think the public understands the extent of health-care inflation. They were shielded from it by a 3.9 percent unemployment rate that forced employers to swallow cost hikes to attract quality workers, says Jon Gabel, vice president of Health Research Educational Trust, the research arm of the American Hospital Assn. The index of leading economic indicators dropped 0.4 percent in April, following two months with little change, suggesting slow economic recovery, according to the Conference Board, a New York-based business research organization (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, MAY 22, 2002: First-quarter layoffs by big employers, affecting 301,200 workers, were at their lowest level since the third quarter of 2000, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Layoffs fell among information and transportation workers and among seasonal workers (The Wall Street Journal, Work Week feature, page B14). The average severance pay package for discharged managers and executives has dropped dramatically from the same period a year ago, according to Chicago-based outplacement firm Challenger, Gray Christmas, Inc. The Challenger quarterly job market index shows that discharged managers and executives averaged 8 weeks of severance in the first quarter of 2002, down 33 percent from the 12-week average severance of the first quarter of 2001. The reduction in the severance period comes as managers and executives face longer searches for new jobs, increasing to 3.4 months. We have never seen severance drop this low, says John Challenger, chief executive officer of the outplacement firm. Even during the 1991 recession, discharged managers and executives were still walking away with 16 weeks of pay (Daily Labor Report, page A-6). Data released Tuesday from the 2000 census long form now brings to 22 the number of states in which the number of children under age 6 with all parents working or looking for a job are detailed, according to Genaro C. Armas, Associated Press http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/3312834.htm). According to this data, the percentage of young kids who grew up with all parents at some stage of employment increased in each of the 22 states, except Nevada and California. Demographers suggest this may, in part, be due to the increase in those two states in Hispanic families -- many of whom have mothers at home full time to care for children or may not be able to afford child care. Among the states released Tuesday: In Connecticut, nearly 62 percent of kids under 6 had all parents working, up from 56 percent in 1990. The state is home to many affluent suburbs of New York City. Nearly 70 percent of young Nebraska kids had parents in the labor force. Jerry Deichert, director of the Census for Public Affairs Research at the University of Nebraska, Omaha, says the struggling farm economy may be forcing both parents in many families to work, providing an explanation for such higher percentages in Nebraska and some other rural states. application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MAY 23, 2002: New claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 9,000 in the latest week, but remained stubbornly high with a slowly improving economy failing to translate into job growth. The level of initial claims for state benefits, which gives an early reading on the situation of the labor market, slipped to 416,000 in the May 18 week from a revised 425,000 in the prior week. But claims did not drop as far as Wall Street economists' forecast of 412,000. The Labor Department had originally reported new claims in the May 11 week at 418,000. In a sign the pace of hiring was slow, the number of unemployed workers who continued to collect benefits was at its highest since February 1983 (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-05-23-jobless.htm. Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket goods jumped 1.1 percent in April, with demand especially strong for cars, communications equipment and machinery. The solid advance came after orders for durables -- items expected to last at least 3 years -- edged up 0.2 percent in March, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Excluding the volatile transportation component, where orders can bounce around from month-to-month, durable-goods orders grew 2.9 percent in April, biggest increase since October. With April's increase, orders for costly manufactured goods have gone up 5 straight months, a good sign for the nation's manufacturers, who had borne the brunt of last year's recession and saw hundreds of thousands of jobs evaporate. Thursday's report, along with other recent data, show the manufacturing sector is on the mend (Associated Press, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-05-23-durables.htm). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MAY 17, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Regional and state unemployment rates were generally stable from March to April, but were higher than a year earlier. All four regions reported little or no change from March, and 42 states and the District of Columbia recorded shifts of 0.3 percentage point or less, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The national jobless rate rose to 6.0 percent in April. Nonfarm employment decreased in 33 states. Mass layoff events totaled 1,669 in the first quarter of 2002 and resulted in job losses for 301,181 workers, a decline from the 2,700 events and 541,410 job losses in the fourth quarter of 2001, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both the number of layoff events and the number of separations were lower than in the same quarter a year earlier, BLS said (Daily Labor Report, page D-3). U.S. consumer sentiment rose in early May as improvement in the stock market, better economic data, and relative calm in the Mideast helped lift consumers' assessment of current conditions and future hopes. The University of Michigan's preliminary May consumer sentiment index rose to 96.0 from a final 93.0 in April, market sources said today. Forecasts were for a drop to 92.7 after a larger-than-expected fall in the prior month. The data are released directly to market subscribers only and were obtained by Reuters (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-05-17-consumer-sentiment.htm). America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement in March as sales of American products overseas outpaced an increase in imports, which were driven higher by the biggest one-month jump in crude oil prices in almost 12 years. The Commerce Department reported today that the March deficit narrowed to $31.6 billion. That was a 0.4 percent improvement over the February gap of $31.8 billion, which had been the biggest imbalance in 10 months. The strength came in a 0.6 percent rise in exports of goods and services, led by gains in foreign demand for commercial aircraft, American-made autos and auto parts, and computers (Martin Crutsinger, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/404743p-3224446c.html). New claims filed with state agencies for Unemployment Insurance benefits climbed 2,000 to a total of 418,000 during the week ended May 11, the Employment and Training Administration says (Daily Labor Report, page D-1; The Washington Post, page E2). Home builders broke ground in April on the smallest number of projects in 6 months, a sign the housing market is slowing a bit (The Washington Post, page E2). The economy is recovering, but it isn't completely out of the woods yet, writes Patrick Barta, in The Wall Street Journal (page A2). The Labor Department said first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose 2,000 to 418,000 in the week ended Saturday. Meanwhile, the number of continuing claims for people already getting jobless benefits grew 82,000, to a 19-year high of 3.86 million in the week ended May 4. Jobless claims are well below the levels of September, when the economy was much weaker and claims briefly surpassed 500,000. But they are moving in the wrong direction, and they are still high enough to suggest a rising unemployment rate. Economists estimate that initial claims would need to drop to at lease 375,000 before the jobless rate started falling again (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6 percent in April, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 179.8 (1982-84=100), the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. For the 12-month period ended in April, the CPI-U increased 1.6 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also increased 0.6 percent in April, prior to seasonal adjustment. The April level of 175.8 was 1.3 percent higher than the index in April 2001. Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.7 percent from March to April after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 0.3 percent decline in average weekly hours and a 0.6 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers were partly offset by a 0.1 percent rise in average hourly earnings. Consumer prices jumped by 0.5 percent [seasonally adjusted] in April, the largest increase in almost a year, led by sharply higher costs for gasoline, airfares and hospital services. The advance in the Consumer Price Index, a closely watched inflation gauge, followed a 0.3 percent increase in March, the Labor Department reported today. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, the core rate of inflation rose 0.3 percent in April. That followed a 0.1 percent rise in March. In a second report, industrial production at the nation's factories, mines and utilities increased in April for the fourth straight month, rising 0.4 percent, the Federal Reserve reported. The report provides further evidence that the manufacturing sector -- hardest hit by last year's recession -- is on the comeback trail. Production of cars, trucks and auto parts rose a solid 3.1 percent last month. Makers of home electronics saw output rise 0.4 percent. Computer production increased 1.6 percent, while business equipment output edged up 0.1 percent. The latest reading on inflation was a bit worse than many analysts were expecting. They were forecasting a 0.4 percent rise in overall prices, and a 0.2 percent advance in the core rate. (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/402320p-3204003c.html). The Bureau of Labor Statistics says young women in 2000 earned 82 percent of what men earned, compared with 68 percent in 1979 (The Wall Street Journal Work Week feature, page B11). Young Americans looking for summer jobs face a soft economy and more competition this year, says The Wall Street Journal's Work Week feature (page B11). The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for workers between the ages of 16 and 19 was 16.8 percent last month, the highest level since 1997. This concerns some economists, who believe young workers pick up good habits for future employment. Meanwhile, employers aren't expected to hire like last year. Based on preliminary data, the National Restaurant Association, whose members are big summer employers, forecasts restaurants will offer an additional 378,700 jobs this summer, down about 15 percent from 445,400 last summer. The forecast for this summer compared favorably to past summers and beats a recent low of 324,400 jobs in 2000. But the association attributes that year's low number to a tight labor market and worker unavailability. The celebrated prosperity of the 1990's brought a surge in the size and value of homes and in family incomes, according to new Census Bureau statistics covering 13 states, including California, Illinois, Indiana, Washington and Wisconsin. Many more Americans earned college and graduate degrees, and the incomes of the elderly jumped about 60 percent. But the data, covering 75 million people, or more than a quarter of the United States population, indicate that the decade's prosperity bypassed many Americans. The poor gained little. Following the overhaul of the welfare system 6 years ago, poverty among single mothers with young children declined. But poverty among all families remained largely unchanged from its 1980 and 1990 levels, an average of 8 percent in the 13 states. To be deemed poor, a family of four in 2000 had an income less than $17,600. Most women's incomes rose in the decade, but men's stagnated or fell. Said Annabel Kirschner, chairwoman of the Department of Rural Sociology at Washington State University in Pullman, along with the poor, unskilled workers fared poorly, with wages failing to keep up with the rate of inflation. Today the bureau released long-form data for Alaska, California, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Oregon, Montana, Wisconsin and the Dakotas. Last week it released data for Mississippi, Nevada, and Washington. Data for other states will be released over the next 3 weeks. New York's and New Jersey's are due on May 20. In round numbers, two-thirds of our population growth in the 1990's was foreign-born, and two-thirds of that was Hispanic, says Max
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MAY 16, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: In the first quarter of 2002, employers reported 1,669 mass layoff actions that resulted in the separation of 301,181 workers from their jobs for more than 30 days, according to preliminary figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Reversing the trend of the previous five quarters, both the total number of layoff events and the number of separations were lower than in the same quarter a year earlier. Lack of demand for employers' products and services (slack work) was the major reason cited for layoffs in the first quarter, accounting for 25 percent of all events and 58,931 separations. The number of seasonal events was at the lowest first-quarter level since the program began in 1995 and accounted for 21 percent of all events. Permanent closure of worksites occurred in 20 percent of all events and affected 82,603 workers, up slightly from 81,805 workers a year earlier and the highest first-quarter level on record. Thirty-five percent of the employers with layoffs in the first quarter indicated that they anticipated some type of recall, the smallest proportion on record for a first quarter. This release uses the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) for the assignment and tabulation of layoff data by industry. Previously, the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system was used. Rising energy costs pushed the consumer price index up 0.5 percent in April, the largest increase in more than a year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Price increases were largely concentrated in just a few areas, mainly gasoline and cigarettes, said Wachovia economist Mark Vitner. The energy index increased sharply for the second consecutive month, 4.5 percent in April, following a 3.8 percent increase in March. BLS said the increase in the index for shelter and tobacco and smoking accounted for April's increase. Prices for cigarettes increased 6.8 percent in April, after declining 3.8 percent in March. The increase reflects the wholesale price increase, selected state tax increases, and a reduction in the discounting of selected major brands, BLS said. The so-called core inflation rate -- the all-items CPI-U minus energy and food prices, increased 0.3 percent after a 0.1 percent increase in March (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Manufacturing, the sector of the U.S. economy hit hardest by last year's recession, continued to regain lost ground in April as factory output rose for the fourth month in a row, the Federal Reserve reported yesterday. According to preliminary figures from the Labor Department, production again rose even though the total number of hours worked fell last month -- an indication that productivity continued to rise sharply. Also yesterday, the Labor Department said large increases in gasoline and tobacco-product prices contributed to a 0.5 percent increase in consumer prices last month, the largest monthly rise since last May. The core portion of the consumer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3 percent, in part because of the 6.5 percent increase in tobacco prices (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, page E1, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22882-2002May15.html). Factories were busier in April and consumer prices posted their sharpest rise in nearly a year, according to reports released yesterday, a sign the recovery was gaining traction. The Federal Reserve said that industry production rose 0.4 percent in April, a fourth consecutive monthly gain that partly reflected a pickup in car production. Separately, the Labor Department reported that consumer prices increased 0.5 percent in April, the biggest gain since a matching rise in May of last year. Analysts had expected a 0.4 percent gain (Reuters, The New York Times, page C2). Investment spending continues to rebound, a positive sign for the economy, but the going is slow, new economic data suggests. The Federal Reserve said industrial production rose 0.4 percent in April from March. Meanwhile, businesses continued to draw down their inventories in March rather than aggressively restock their shelves. Taken together, the numbers paint a picture of an economy that is recovering but still operating on two different -- and at times conflicting -- tracks. Separately, inflation increased more than expected in April, but not enough across the economy to suggest that it will become a problem anytime soon. One concern is that the U.S. dollar, which has weakened in recent weeks, could add to inflation by driving up prices of imports. But economists say it would take a sharper and more sustained drop in the dollar to trigger more inflation (The Wall Street Journal, page A7). A drop in hours worked combined with a sharp rise in consumer prices resulted in a 0.7 percent decline in real weekly earnings for April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was the largest
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BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MAY 13, 2002: A sharp decline in food prices out-weighed the increase in gasoline and tobacco prices, causing the producer price index to drop 0.2 percent in April, compared with a 1.0 percent increase in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The prices of consumer foods dropped 3.2 percent in April, compared with a 0.6 percent increase in March, BLS said. The so-called core rate of wholesale inflation -- finished goods minus food and energy -- increased 0.1 percent in April. Over the year, the core PPI has risen 0.4 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Wholesale prices fell 0.2 percent in April, led by the biggest drop in food costs in nearly 3 decades. The decline in the producer price index was a big turnaround from the sharp 1 percent increase registered in March, the Labor Department reported. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core rate of wholesale inflation rose 0.1 percent for the second straight month (The Washington Post, May 11, page E2). Producer prices fell unexpectedly in April as food costs showed the biggest decline in almost 3 decades and sluggish demand made it harder for companies to charge more, the government reported today. The Producer Price Index, which measures prices paid to factories, farmers, and other suppliers of goods and materials, dropped 0.2 percent after gaining 1 percent in March, the Labor Department said. Excluding food and energy, the index rose 0.1 percent, the 11th consecutive reading of that size or smaller (Bloomberg News, The New York Times, May 11, page B2). April's unexpected decline in U.S. wholesale prices, which includes the biggest drop in food prices in 28 years, suggests inflation is abating even as the economy rebounds. The Labor Department said Friday the producer price index for finished goods fell 0.2 percent, the first decline in 4 months. The drop largely reflected a 3.2 percent fall in food prices and a slowdown in the growth of energy prices: When food and energy items are excluded, the core index rose 0.1 percent, the same rate as in March. Excluding a 3.9 percent increase in tobacco prices, core prices declined 0.1 percent; according to Morgan Stanley (The Wall Street Journal, page A6). Writing on trade unions Mary Ellen Slayter (The Washington Post Career Track feature, page E4) says Although a 1999 survey by Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc. found that young adults (18 to 34) are twice as likely to think positively about unions than negatively, many young workers don't quite understand how unions work. In her article, she quotes Bureau of Labor Statistics' data, saying ...union members made 15 percent more than nonunion workers in 2001, according to the U.S. Labor Department. On average, union workers made $718 a week in 2001; nonunion workers made $575. One commonly cited complaint (about union membership) is the cost of dues. Most unions set dues as a percentage of pay. Those who make more, pay more, says Slayter. Another common objection is that unions aren't suitable for professionals or intellectual workers, that they are only appropriate for factory workers. White-collar workers generally believe they should negotiate individually based on their talent and skills, not based on where they fall under the union contract. This is one reason why there are fewer union workers today than 10 years ago. In a service economy, individual talents, which are often hard to judge objectively, allow some to advance in their careers faster than others. In 2001, 13.5 percent of wage and salary workers were union members, unchanged from 2000, according to the U.S. Labor Department. This is a significant decline from the high of 20.1 percent in 1983, the first year such statistics were reported. Maintaining a gradual rate of improvement, hiring plans for most industries are stronger for the third quarter than they have been in more than a year, the latest Manpower, Inc. survey shows. It was the second consecutive quarter in which job prospects improved. In its second-quarter survey, Manpower projected a turnaround as many industries pulled out of recession. Manpower's survey of nearly 16,000 firms showed that 27 percent plan to add employees in the third quarter, up by 6 percentage points from the second-quarter reading of 21 percent. Only 8 percent of employers said they plan layoffs for the third quarter, down from 10 percent reporting such plans for the second quarter. Manufacturing employment gains projected by the latest survey are especially encouraging, given the long-running downturn in that sector, Manpower Chairman Jeffrey Joerres said (Daily Labor Report, page A-9; Melissa McCord, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/business/V4788.htm). DUE OUT TOMORROW: College Enrollment and Work Activity of 2001 High School Graduates application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MAY 14, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Slightly more than three in every five graduates of the 2001 high school class were enrolled in colleges or universities in the fall, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The college enrollment rate was little changed from the previous 2 years, but was below the record high of 67 percent in 1997. Information on school enrollment and the work activity of high school graduates comes from an October supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS). Among the 2.5 million members of the 2001 high school graduating class, 1.6 million (61.7percent) were enrolled in college the following October. Worker productivity, a key indicator of long-term economic vitality, rose 8.6 percent in the first quarter -- the best performance in nearly 19 years, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The index, which measures changes in worker output per hour, means firms are squeezing more from their employees. Still, gains in productivity allow firms to pay workers more without raising prices and let the economy grow without sparking inflation. Analysts say the Fed won't likely raise interest rates until firms start hiring again (http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0513/p14s01-wmgn.html). After a tightfisted March, U. S. consumers splurged in April, boosting retail sales by 1.2 percent, the biggest increase in 6 months. The latest sales snapshot released today by the Commerce Department suggests that consumers -- the lifeblood of the economy -- are helping to support the budding economic recovery by keeping their pocketbooks and wallets open. The April advance came after retail sales nudged up by 0.1 percent in March and was stronger than the 0.6 percent gain many analysts were forecasting. Consumers, whose spending accounts for two-thirds of all economic activity in the United States, snapped up cars, building materials, garden supplies and health care and beauty products last month. They also ate out more (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/401156p-3195271c.html). The U.S. economy will grow 2.8 percent this year and pick up to 3.7 percent in 2003, but with inflation in check, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates until the third quarter, the National Association for Business Economics said in its latest survey May 13. NABE forecasters have raised their predictions for real gross domestic product growth to 2.8 percent from 1.5 percent they had back in February. When GDP is measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter, they predict that the economy will grow 3.9 percent this year and 3.6 percent in 2003. The survey of 30 forecasters was taken during the last week of April and the first week of May (Daily Labor Report, page A-11). Women may be bringing home larger paychecks, but when it comes to earning the really serious money -- wages of $1 million or more -- men far outnumber them, as they did a generation ago. Study results released recently by the Internal Revenue Service, based on an extensive analysis of wages reported by employers in 1998, show that men outnumber women in the $1 million-plus category by more than 13 to 1. A similar pattern was found in the $500,000 to $1 million category. But in the $100,000 to $200,000 class, the ratio was about 5 to 1; $75,000 to $100,000, 3 to 1; and $50,000 to $75,000, nearly 2 to 1. It was not until wages were $25,000 to $30,000 that there were roughly equal numbers of men and women, according to the I.R.S. report in the winter 2001-2002 Statistics of Income Bulletin. At wages of less than $25,000, women outnumbered men, accounting for 57.6 percent of the wage earners in that category. Three decades ago, women accounted for only 3 percent of students seeking an MBA degree, compared with about 30 percent today, added June O'Neill, an economist at Baruch College and a former director of the Congressional Budget Office. Fewer women make it to the top because fewer women have set out from the start to make it to the top, she said. Ms. O'Neill said the predominance of women among low-wage earners reflected decisions by many women to focus more on the family than on work (The New York Times, May 12, Money Business section, page 8). Corporate cost-cutting efforts have generally not affected the work and life benefits that have become more widely offered over the last year, according to a Hewitt Associates survey released May 13. The survey of 945 U.S. employers showed that nearly all work/life programs have experienced modest growth over the last year. Group purchasing programs and onsite personal conveniences showed the most growth, the firm said. Survey findings contradict a general assumption that companies often cut back on so-called soft benefits when the economy turns down, said Hewitt work/life consultant Carol Sladek (Daily Labor Report, page A-4). DBM, an outplacement firm based in New York, said it recently
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MAY 6, 2002: Despite other signs that the economy has turned around, the U.S. labor market remained weak in April, as the unemployment rate climbed to 6.0 percent and payrolls grew very little, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was the highest jobless rate since August 1994, and represented about 8.6 million unemployed persons. Payrolls outside of agriculture increased by only 43,000 in April, and a downward revision turned what had been first estimated as a small gain in March into a small decline. Led by what BLS calls help supply services, the services sector added 87,000 jobs in April after a gain of 72,000 in March. This marked the first time the (services) industry has had substantial consecutive monthly increases in over a year, said Acting BLS Commissioner Lois Orr at a May 3 briefing. Help-supply firms added 66,000 jobs last month (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The U.S. unemployment rate last month was the highest in nearly eight years, 6 percent, as employers continued to expand production without hiring workers, the Labor Department reported yesterday. Despite a very strong rebound in economic growth following last year's recession, unemployment rose from 5.7 percent in March and surpassed the recession peak of 5.8 percent in December. The rate hasn't been 6 percent since august 1994. Many analysts expect a further increase in unemployment until continued economic growth encourages more hiring (John M. Berry, May 4, The Washington Post, page A1). The unemployment rate surged last month to 6 percent, its highest level in almost 8 years, the government said yesterday, in a sign that many companies are too worried about the economy to begin hiring again. The Labor Department's report raised the possibility that the current economic recovery could resemble the so-called jobless recovery of the early 1990's, when unemployment continued to rise for many months after a recession had ended (David Leonhardt, The New York Times, May 4, page A1). The labor market swelled by more than a half million people in April, but a large number of them couldn't find work, suggesting the economy's rebound isn't strong enough to reverse a weak job market. Although the Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls grew by 43,000 -- the first monthly gain in 9 months after the March increase was revised to a slight decline -- the uptick wasn't nearly enough to absorb the jump in new people seeking work. The labor force expanded to a record 142.6 million people (The Wall Street Journal, page A3). The U.S. services sector expanded for the third consecutive month in April, the Institute of Supply Management reports. The nonmanufacturing business index stood at 55.3 percent. March had an index of 57.3 percent. The industries reporting the highest rates of growth of business activity in April were agriculture, transportation, insurance, real estate, wholesale trade, and retail trade. The industries reporting contraction of business in April were mining, entertainment, and finance and banking (Daily Labor Report, page A-2; Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-05-03-ism-service-index.htm). The number of U.S. technology workers plunged by nearly 530,000 in the past year, a drop of nearly 5 percent, according to a national study by the Information Technology Association of America to be released today. The report also lays out employment prospects for some of the nation's 10 million techies, providing numbers to match the uncertain mood among many job seekers. The survey projects that employers will fill about 570,000 technology positions this year, based on interviews with 532 hiring managers. That assumes businesses soon will begin to purchase more computers, software and other cutting-edge products, stimulating firms to increase production and bring on more workers, a scenario that is still being debated. A separate study released last week by Information Week magazine said that tech workers' pay had dipped by 11 percent, to $63,000, compared with a median compensation package of $71,000 last year (The Washington Post, page E1; The Wall Street Journal, page B6). After a year of massive layoffs and the loss of more than a half million technology jobs nationwide, the managers who hire technology workers predict so much hiring in 2002 that they won't be able to fill all the jobs. A survey released today by the Information Technology Association of America shows that the number of technology jobs in the United States fell from 10.4 million in 2001 to 9.9 million in early 2002, about a 5 percent drop. Beneath these numbers is evidence of even greater turmoil in the job market. The overall job loss came from companies eliminating 2.6 million positions while hiring 2.1 million workers. The survey also found that demand for IT workers in the West has fallen 71 percent since 2000, suggesting that local workers' situation may be worse than
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MAY 3, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The unemployment rate rose to 6.0 percent in April, and payroll employment was little changed (+43,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Employment rose in the services industry but fell in construction. Job losses in manufacturing continued to moderate. The nation's unemployment rate shot up to 6 percent in April, the highest point in nearly 8 years, as the lingering effects of last year's recession continued to batter workers. The rise in the jobless rate occurred even though U.S. companies added jobs for the first time in 9 months, the Labor Department reported Friday. Payrolls grew by 43,000 during the month, a welcome sign after companies had slashed hundreds of thousands of positions to cope with last year's recession and the jolt of the September 11 terror attacks. Still, job growth wasn't strong enough in April to take care of the 565,000 people who entered the work force during the month. That caused the unemployment rate to rise from March's 5.7 percent rate. The growth in payrolls comes after the government said that companies actually cut 21,000 jobs in March, a big revision from the 58,000 job gain previously reported (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/business/V7266.htm). New claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending April 27 dropped 10,000 to 418,000, seasonally adjusted, down from the previous week's revised total of 428,000, the Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor reports. The less volatile, more closely watched 4-week moving average decreased 18,500 to 435,750 from the previous week's revised average of 454,250, ETA said (Daily Labor Report, page D-1; Reuters, The New York Times, page C2). U.S. corporations' workforce reductions increased to 112,645 jobs in April, according to Challenger, Gray Christmas. April announcements were 10 percent higher than the 102,315 job cuts announced in March and 32 percent lower than the 165,564 job cuts announced in April a year ago. April marked the 16th time in 17 months that job cuts exceeded 100,000, the firm said (Daily Labor Report, page A-3). Even as thousands of Americans are still getting pink slips, powerful help is on the way. And it has more to do with demographics than economics. The oldest members of the huge baby-boom generation are now 56, and as they start retiring, job candidates with the right skills will be in hot demand, writes Daniel Eisenberg in Time (http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,233967,00.html). In certain industries, especially those in which burnout and early retirement are common and demand for services is rising, the crunch has already arrived. As the population ages, hospitals can't find enough nurses or medical technicians. Drugstores are competing to hire pharmacists, bidding some beginners' salaries above $75,000. School districts and universities will need 2.2 million more teachers over the next decade, not to mention administrators and librarians, and are already avidly recruiting. Homeowners can't get their calls returned by skilled contractors, electricians or plumbers. Corporations are scooping up accountants and engineers. For job seekers who have the right skills or are willing to learn them, there are real opportunities in government, construction and technology. College students who once had their pick of summer work that offered both professional experience and a paycheck are finding this year's market the toughest they've ever faced. Some are turning to more traditional summer jobs, which is making it harder for high school students to get seasonal work at all. Many companies have cut summer internships. And those who've kept them say they're getting an unprecedented number of applications -- even for unpaid positions. In a climate where some college graduates are still looking for jobs or accepting positions that once went to students, experts say an undergrad might need to apply with 20 companies to get one offer -- and forgo a wage. This is not the summer to get rich. This is the summer to get experience, says Steven Rothberg, president and founder of CollegeRecruiter.com, a Minneapolis-based jobs Web site for college students (Martha Irvine, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/389441p-3094866c.html). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MAY 2, 2002: New claims for unemployment insurance dipped last week, suggesting that companies are laying off fewer workers as the budding economic recovery unfolds. The Labor Department reports today that for the work week ending April 27, new claims for jobless benefits went down by a seasonally adjusted 10,000 to 418,000, the lowest level since March 23. In another report, orders to U.S. factories rose for the fourth straight month, a solid 0.4 percent rise in March. The figure was largely boosted by stronger demand for nondurable goods, such as food, clothes, paper products and chemicals, the Commerce Department said. Total nondurable goods were up 1.6 percent in March, the biggest increase in 2 years. Orders also rose for some manufactured goods, including metals, construction machinery, household appliances and defense equipment. The report reinforces the view that the nation's manufacturers -- which sharply cut production and saw hundreds of thousands of jobs evaporate during the recession -- are on the comeback trail. In the jobless-claims report, even with the decline, a government analyst said, the level was inflated as a result of a technical fluke. The distortion is coming from a requirement that laid-off workers seeking to take advantage of a federal extension for benefits must submit new claims. Many economists are forecasting a rise in April's jobless rate to 5.8 percent and estimating that businesses added around 55,000 jobs during the month. The government will release the April employment report tomorrow. Even as the economy bounces back from recession, some economists expect the jobless rate will peak to just over 6 percent by June. That's because companies will be reluctant to quickly hire back laid-off workers until they are assured the recovery is here to stay (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/388937p-3092372c.html). Layoff announcements at U.S. firms bounced back up in April after a drop in March in a sign that the recovering U.S. economy could take some time to gather steam, Challenger, Gray Christmas said today. The outplacement firm said in a monthly report that job cuts announced in April totaled 112,649 or 10 percent more than the 102,315 layoffs announced in March. While the April figure represents a 32 percent decline from the same month in 2001, total job cut announcements so far this year remain perilously close to the record pace of layoffs seen last year, Challenger said. Telecommunications led the pack of downsizing industries -- one in three job cuts took place in the beleaguered telecom sector (Reuters, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A20631-2002May2.html). Deaths, injuries and illnesses on the job are happening too frequently in the United States despite annual workplace safety efforts, writes Robert A. Jordan in the Boston Globe (http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/122/business/Budget_cuts_imperil_workplac e_safety+.shtml). Nearly 6,000 workers were killed from traumatic injuries and more than 6.3 million suffered other injuries or illnesses on the job in 2000, the most recent year data was available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Evidence continues to mount that the economy is recovering at a slower pace than in the first quarter. Two reports released yesterday suggest the recent spurt in economic growth is tapering off, with manufacturing expanding at a slower rate last month and construction activity dropping (The Wall Street Journal, page A6). Data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs through April 29 show that the average first-year wage increase in newly negotiated contracts was 4.2 percent, compared with 3.9 percent in 2001. The median first-year wage increase for settlements reported to date in 2002 was 3.8 percent, compared with 3.6 percent a year ago, and the weighted average increase was 2.2 percent, compared with 5 percent in 2001 (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). A report released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 23 suggests that personal income -- and the economy -- were weaker in 2001 than previously thought. Based on newly available data on wages, salaries, bonuses and other payments to labor, the new figures chop about $90 billion, or about 1 percent, off personal income. These revised figures bolster the case that last year's slowdown really does deserve to be called a recession. According to the new data, real personal income rose by only 0.1 percent from the first quarter of 2001 -- when the downturn officially started -- to the end of the year. That's still relatively mild compared with the 1990-91 recession, but it's consistent with the distress that many Americans felt last year. The downward revisions were the biggest in California, with third-quarter personal income reduced by 2.5 percent below the previous estimate. Close behind were other tech-heavy states, such as North Carolina, Virginia,
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, APRIL 29, 2002: Relocation among job seekers has fallen to its lowest level in 16 years, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray Christmas. Only 14 percent of new hires relocated in the first quarter, according to Challenger's quarterly survey of 3,000 discharged managers and executives. Over the previous 5 years, the average relocation rate was 22 percent. The firm cites two main reasons for the decline: (1). Recession -- A poor economy forced many companies to cut costs associated with recruiting and relocation. (2). Lingering effects of September 11 - Americans are less willing to move away from their social safety net since the terrorist attacks. With an average of 171,000 job cuts announced in each of the last 6 months, even recent job winners are not feeling very secure, says Challenger (http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0429/p16s02-wmgn.html). Information technology professionals, who were wooed with exorbitant salaries and lucrative perks in the late 1990s, are facing a reality check this year, as their total compensation declines for the first time since 1997. Every quarter, fewer and fewer companies are reporting that they are having difficulty filling their technical and professional jobs, says Kathryn Kobe, an economic consultant at Joel Popkin Associates in Washington who tracks wage indicators. The economy has slowed down enough that there is not as much demand. A new survey of 10,109 information technology professionals by Information Week magazine supports those claims. The trade publication will report today that median compensation for technology managers dropped 8 percent to $89,000 this year, from $97,000 in 2001. Meanwhile, median compensation for information technology staffers dropped 11 percent to $63,000, down from $71,000 last year. The declines are the first since the publication began tracking salaries and compensation 5 years ago. Bill Coleman, senior vice president of compensation at Salary.com in Wellesley Mass, said many companies are avoiding the generous salaries and perks that were used to attract employees a few years ago. Employers have more than enough talented professionals to choose from these days. Morris Green, chairman of Hayward Simone Associates, a staffing and technology management services firm on Wall Street, says Salaries are down anywhere from 25 to 30 percent. The hardest hit job functions were application development and networking, says Rusty Weston, author of the Information Week study. Specialists in the areas of security, groupware, and wireless appear most likely to remain employed (Boston Globe). Massive inventory rebuilding and modest consumer spending propelled the U.S. gross domestic product to a 5.8 percent annual rate of growth, after adjustment for inflation, in the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It was the strongest quarter for the U.S. economy since an 8.3 percent rise in the fourth quarter of 1999. The dramatic improvement sets the stage for what forecasters expect will remain a solid recovery through the year. the inflation measures in the GDP report were more subdued than we expected, says Richard Berner, Chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. Modest inflation rates will help boost consumer spending and help businesses control costs in the months ahead, he says. Later in the year we expect inflation to accelerate, as growth picks up. The March employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that job growth resumed last month, although nonfarm payrolls increased by only 58,000. Many economists expect payroll expansion to pick up in the second half of the year, with monthly additions of at least 100,000. BLS is scheduled to release April employment and unemployment figures on May 3 (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The United States economy is showing signs of life. So why is the stock market still acting the part of the deadbeat? Investors shrugged off the otherwise good news, indicating their concerns about the report's hints of consumer skittishness and their continuing unease over corporate profits and investigations into Wall Street practices. However, the economic growth in the first quarter was more than had been expected, and well above the 1.7 percent rate of the fourth quarter of 2001 (The New York Times, April 27, page A1). The economy grew this winter at its fastest pace in more than 2 years, delivering a clear sign that the recession has ended and that a new expansion has started briskly. But analysts said that growth was unlikely to continue at the 5.8 percent pace of the first 3 months of the year, pointing to signs that the economy has already weakened slightly in April. The Federal Government gave the economy a big push by increasing military spending at the fastest rate since the Vietnam War. Few economists doubt that the recent downturn deserves to be called a recession, largely
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BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, APRIL 30, 2002: Personal income rose 0.4 percent in March, following a 0.6 percent increase in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The increase in personal income brought income to $8.92 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. March's rise in total income was led by private sector wages, which increased $7.8 billion in March, compared with an increase of $15.9 billion in February. Goods-producing industries increased pay by $3.4 billion, compared with an increase of $2.0 billion in February. Manufacturing payrolls increased $3.1 billion, after a $10.4 billion increase in February. Distributive industries payrolls increased $2.0 billion, compared with an increase of $10.4 billion. Service industries payrolls increased $2.3 billion, compared with an increase of $3.5 billion the previous month. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $30 billion in March, compared with a $4.1 billion increase in February, BEA said (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Consumer confidence dipped in April from a 7-month high, but optimism about the economy still remained higher than analysts' expectations. The New York-based Conference Board says that its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 108.8 this month from a revised 110.7 in March. Analysts were expecting a reading of 107.5. The industry group's index, based on a monthly survey of some 5,000 households, is closely watched because consumer confidence drives consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the nation's economic activity. This month's retreat in confidence was caused primarily by a softening in consumers' assessment of current economic conditions, said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's research center (Hope Yen, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/386227p-3074296c.html). Developing countries are increasing their share in the export of manufactured goods but are reaping little benefit, according to a United Nations report released this week. High-tech goods may look like they're coming from poorer countries, but in fact those nations provide only the low-skill labor needed to assemble items produced elsewhere, the U.S. Conference on Trade and Development said. Goods travel across several locations before reaching final consumers, and the total value of recorded trade far exceeds the value added, the Trade and Development Report 2002 said. The report said up to 30 percent of world exports are produced that way by large international corporations, almost all of which are based in developed countries. Real improvements will depend on an increase in the market for labor-intensive products in developed countries, and a move away from such production in middle-income countries, UNICTAD said (Naomi Koppel, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/385572p-3069002c.html). The Labor Department yesterday officially launched GovBenefits.gov, a Web site designed to simplify access to information about government aid and other benefit programs. It is to provide information and links to programs on a person-by-person basis. Users enter the site and check boxes indicating, for example, that they are unemployed or the victim of a disaster. A series of yes-or-no questions about the situation follows, and then the site produces a list of government programs and benefits for which the user may be eligible, with contact information for each program. Although the site initially provides links to only 55 assistance programs, Labor and the Office of Management and Budget, which jointly created the project, intend to expand the site's resources by 30 to 40 programs a month, culminating in links to 300 programs (The Federal Page, The Washington Post, page A17). The average person and economists can probably agree on the most important measure of economic health: jobs. If you feel you could find a new job tomorrow, the economy is booming. If you are worried about spending months out of work, the economy is bad, writes Leslie Eaton in The New York Times (April 28, page 32). But the problem with focusing only on employment is that, for the most part, it is a lagging indicator. Companies are slow to lay people off when the economy turns down, and slow to hire them again, even after business picks up. One exception is the market for temporary jobs, which are leading indicators on the way down and on the way up. We're usually 3 months ahead of the curve, says James A. Essey, president of the TemPositions Group of Companies. There are no signs of a surge yet, he said, but it's not getting worse. Help-wanted ads are sending a similar signal; they've basically been flat since November, according to the Conference Board, a business research group. Over all, advertising remains weak, as reflected in the poor earnings of publishing companies. Employment in New York City peaked last spring and has been declining ever
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BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, MAY 1, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: In March, 284 metropolitan areas had higher unemployment rates than a year earlier, 39 areas had lower rates, and 8 areas had rates that were unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Thirteen metropolitan areas posted jobless rates of 10.0 percent or more, eight of which were located in California's Central Valley. Fourteen areas had unemployment rates below 3.0 percent, with seven of these located in the South, including three in Florida, and four located in the Midwest. The national unemployment rate in March was 6.1 percent, not seasonally adjusted. Manufacturing activity grew for a third straight month in April, but at a slower rate than in the previous month, the Tempe, Arizona- based Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports. It said its index of business activity dipped to 53.9 in April, from a revised 55.6 in March. Analysts had been expecting a reading of 55.0. Because an index over 50 signifies growth in manufacturing, April's figure indicates continued expansion in the sector, although at a slower rate than in March. Of the 20 industries tracked by the ISM, 18 reported overall growth last month. Among them were textiles, petroleum, furniture and primary metals. The ISM measure is closely watched by economists because it offers an early reading on the health of the manufacturing sector. Its index is based on a survey of purchasing executives who buy the raw materials for manufacturing at more than 350 companies. Manufacturers have been the hardest hit by the downturn in the economy, which officially slid into a recession in March 2001. (Hope Yen, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/387758p-3084006c.html). Construction activity fell 0.9 percent in March, fed by a sharp drop in spending on highways, hospitals, schools and other big government projects. The decline came after construction spending rose 0.7 percent in February, the Commerce Department reports. The March performance was weaker than analysts expected; they were forecasting a 0.2 percent dip. Even with the drop, the level of spending -- an annual rate of $874 billion -- was still considered healthy. Economists were expecting construction activity to edge down with the return of colder weather in March. Mild weather helped bolster construction activity in January and February. Much of the weakness in March came from a 5.6 percent decline in spending on big government projects. Private builders, meanwhile, trimmed spending on commercial projects in March by 0.3 percent. Spending was lower for industrial complexes and hotels and motels, while spending on office buildings edged up slightly. Spending on residential projects rose 0.6 percent in March. Single family homes posted a gain, but multifamily housing, including apartments, saw spending dip. (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.usatoday.com/aponline/2002050110/2002050110082700.htm). Consumer confidence fell during April, the Conference Board reported today, as higher energy prices and a declining stock market tempered optimism about economic growth. The Conference Board's gauge of sentiment dropped to 108.8 this month from 110.7 in March. The drop was less than expected. (The New York Times, page C8; The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Republicans and Democrats in the Senate reached a tentative agreement on providing help to workers who lose their jobs to international competition. Democrats want to grant more workers federal subsidies to maintain their health insurance when they lose their jobs. Republicans have accepted those demands in general. The two sides are divided, however, over how big the subsidies should be and, to a lesser extent, how they should be made available to workers. (The New York Times, page A19). New groups hope to help the elusive temp worker. The growing number of contingent workers--temps, freelancers, contract workers, and the like--float in a gray area outside the traditional employer-employee relationship. Some get benefits through their agencies, but federal data show they have less access to health and retirement benefits. New groups, with some help from private concerns, are exploring ways to help bridge that gap. (The Wall Street Journal, page B10). application/ms-tnef
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BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, APRIL 22, 2002: Unemployment rates increased in 30 states in March and decreased in 12 states and the District of Columbia, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was unchanged in eight states. North Dakota had the lowest unemployment rate, 3.1 percent; Oregon had the highest jobless rate, 7.9 percent. By region, the West had the highest unemployment rate, 6.3 percent, and the Midwest and Northeast had the lowest rates, 5.3 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Some of America's large service industries played an important role in the productivity turnaround of the late 1990s, according to a new study that dissects the economic performance of 35 industries. The U.S.'s ability to churn out more goods and services with fewer resources is widely viewed as a linchpin for the late 1990s economic boom, and the key to a solid recovery, writes Jon E. Hilsenrath in The Wall Street Journal (page A2). In the late 1990s, the annual productivity growth rate picked up to an average of 2.5 percent from less than 1.5 percent on average during the previous 20 years. But economists are still trying to understand what was behind it. Some economists have said the gains were isolated to the computer and semiconductor sectors. But this study adds to evidence that they were broader than that, underpinning the argument that the productivity gains might be lasting. The paper -- written by Dale Jorgenson of Harvard University; Mun Ho with Resources for the Future, a Washington, D.C. think tank; and Kevin Stiroh of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York -- shows that computers and semiconductors indeed played a critical role in the productivity turnaround. But the research also indicates that a range of service industries that made large investments in information technology during the late 1990s also saw meaningful gains in productivity. Gasoline prices edged down more than a half-cent during the past two weeks despite tensions in oil-producing regions in the Middle East and South America. Friday's weighted price per gallon for all grades and taxes was about $1.46 according to the Lundberg survey of 8,000 gas stations nationwide (Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/372564p-2998135c.html). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Productivity and Costs by Industry, 2000 application/ms-tnef
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RELEASED TODAY: Employers initiated 1,460 mass layoff actions in March 2002, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment, and the number of workers involved totaled 161,336. Compared with March 2001, the number of layoff events declined by 4 percent and the number of claimants fell by 6 percent. This was the third time in the last four months that layoff events and related initial claims declined over the year. However, from January through March 2002, the total number of events, at 4,989, and initial claims, at 564,141, were higher than in January-March 2001 (4,550 and 544,717, respectively). During the recession year of 2001 nearly all states recorded the smallest per capita income gains in many years, according to figures released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. For the nation as a whole, per capita income grew by 2.7 percent last year, to $30,271, less than half the 5.8 percent gain posted in 2000. It was the smallest annual increase in per capita income since the 1990-91 recession, the agency said (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The late 1990s, with dot-com millionaires and chief executives bathing in stock options, were good to the nation's wealthiest families. But a growing of research suggests that workers with the lowest incomes fared better, too, although that might not last for long. The latest evidence comes from a report by a pair of left-leaning Washington think tanks, which are pushing to change tax laws to make them more beneficial to poor and moderate-income families. The report, Pulling Apart: A State-by-State Analysis of Income Trends, shows that after surging during the 1980s and early 1990s, the gap between the rich and poor narrowed a bit at the very end of the decade. Examining Census Bureau data on pretax household income, the two think tanks, the Economic Policy Institute and the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, found that the top 20% of American families on average earned $9.99 for every dollar earned by the bottom 20% in 1998 through 2000. When the groups conducted a similar study two years ago, the ratio was $10.58 for every dollar. Behind the change was a rise in incomes among the nation's poorest families. During the late 1990s, household income among the poorest families rose 10.3% to an average of $14,232, while incomes among top earners rose 8.2% to an average of $155,527 (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Employment Cost Index--March 2002 application/ms-tnef
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BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, APRIL 23, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Labor productivity -- defined as output per hour -- rose in 2000 in more than three-fourths of the 170 industries studied by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Output rose in 71 percent of the industries, while hours rose in 44 percent. The share of industries with productivity increases during the 1990-2000 period was even greater. From 1990 to 2000, labor productivity increased in 92 percent of the industries. Output rose in 85 percent of the industries, while hours rose in only 46 percent. At first glance, the Labor Department's employment report for March sent a mixed message about the economy, says James C. Cooper Kathleen Madigan writing in the Business Outlook feature of Business Week (April 22, page 27). Payrolls posted a moderate gain, the first of the recovery, but the unemployment rate rose after 2 months of decline. While those two data points seem contradictory, the split reflects the two sets of influences affecting the economy right now. The first group is the structural changes of the 1990s, including greater labor-market flexibility, larger productivity gains, and faster growth in real wages. The second set extends from the classic business-cycle turn-around in the long-beleaguered manufacturing sector, as businesses replenish depleted inventories. Taken together, the collection of structural and cyclical influences suggests that the economy as a whole will look much healthier in 2002 than the job markets will. Economic growth this year will be powered mainly by productivity. Hiring will pick up, but it may not be strong enough to stop the jobless rate from rising above March's 5.7 percent. But because the jobless rate remains historically low, wages should grow fast enough to keep household buying power rising. Among the structural changes: Businesses will be slow to add on costly permanent staffers, and temporary workers and variable pay will be evident. Given their desire to lift profits, companies will focus on extracting all possible productivity gains from their existing workforce. The growth of production workers' hourly earnings has slowed in the past 6 months, from 4.4 percent per year to 3.5 percent. But with inflation slowing as well, real wages are growing faster now than they were 6 months ago. An estimated 50,000 New York City workers lost their jobs in the wake of last year's terrorist attacks, but do not qualify for relief set aside for September 11 victims, according to a study released today. The report, by the United Way of New York City, highlights the dilemma facing many displaced workers who lost their livelihoods after the attacks, yet were left behind from charity aid because they did not live or work in Lower Manhattan. The report points out that 9,000 jobs were lost in the city's aviation industry, which it calls a direct effect of the attacks. However, because most airline and airport employees worked in Queens, they were not eligible for help (Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/nation/story/373553p-3007474c.html). Federal officials have joined with nearly 350 college and universities to sell this year's 1.2 million college graduates on government work, writes May Deibel, Scripps Howard News Service (http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/373281p-3003815c.html, USA Today, page 8D). In coming weeks, federal recruiters will hit college campuses to tell students that we need new talent, new energy, new creativity to do the work of government in the 21st century, whether its in military or civil service, says Kay Coles James, head of the federal Office of Personnel Management and the government's recruiter in chief. With more than half the current federal work force of 1.8 million eligible to retire over the next 5 years, James said, the federal government needs doctors, lawyers, social workers, psychologists, CIA agents, architects, archaeologists, park rangers and foresters -- and that's just for starters. Despite the surge in patriotism and respect for government since September 11, only 1 in 6 college graduates expresses serious interest in working for the government, according to a new poll by Peter Hart and Robert Teeter. DUE OUT TOMORROW: Mass Layoffs in March 2002 application/ms-tnef
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BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, APRIL 25, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The Employment Cost Index for total compensation increased 3.9 percent (civilian workers, not seasonally adjusted) for the year ended March 2002, the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The Employment Cost Index (ECI), a component of the National Compensation Survey, measures changes in compensation costs, which include wages, salaries, and employer costs for employee benefits. When it comes to executive compensation, the good times often linger on. And on. Scores of former CEOs continue to pull in fat retainers and lavish perks--some long after retiring--as consultants to their companies. Moreover, many consulting deals call for few specified tasks and lend new meaning to the term part time, according to a USA TODAY database analysis of corporate filings (USA TODAY, page 1B). Durable-goods orders fell in March for the first time in four months, another sign of the spottiness of the economic recovery and business investment in particular. Orders big-ticket items--cars, appliances and other goods meant to last three years or longer--fell by 0.6 percent to $173.41 billion last month. February durable-goods orders were revised upward to a 2.7 percent rise after being estimated as a 1.8 percent increase (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). The economy continued to rebound in March and early April as all but one of the Federal Reserve's 12 regional districts (the exception was Boston) saw signs of improvement or actual increases in economic activity, according to a Fed report Wednesday. The beige book, a regular survey known for the color of its cover, notes that consumer spending increased or held steady and the battered factory sector was stable or improved, but the job market was slack (The Washington Post, page E3; and The New York Times, page C6). application/ms-tnef
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BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, APRIL 18, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: In May 2001, about 29 million full-time wage and salary workers had flexible work schedules that allowed them to vary the time they began or ended work, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The proportion of workers with such schedules was 28.8 percent, slightly higher than the figure of 27.6 percent recorded when the data were last collected in May 1997 and nearly double the proportion 10 years earlier. The median weekly earnings of full-time workers in the first quarter of 2002 increased 3.7 percent over the previous year, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. BLS said median weekly wages, measured in current dollars without adjustment for inflation, climbed to $614 in the first quarter of 2002 from $605 a week in the fourth quarter of 2001(Daily Labor Report, page D-8). Data from newly negotiated contract agreements compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs through April 15 show a first-year average wage increase of 4.2 percent, compared with 4 percent in the same period of 2001. The median first-year increase for the same settlements was 3.7 percent, and the weighted average increase was 2.1 percent. Among nonmanufacturing (excluding construction) settlements, the average increase is 5.1 percent, while manufacturing contracts post an average increase of 2.5 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-14). New claims for unemployment insurance inched up even as a key gauge of economic activity suggested the country is recovering from recession. For the work week ending April 13, new claims for jobless benefits edged up by a seasonally adjusted 1,000 to 445,000, the Labor Department reports today. Meanwhile, the New York-based Conference Board said its Index of Leading Economic Indicators nudged up 0.1 percent in March to 112.3 after holding steady in February. The recovery in the leading index suggests that economy is poised for growth through late summer, said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. One of the reasons why layoffs and unemployment have been rising even though the economy is improving is because businesses, which had shed workers during the slump, want to make sure the rebound is here to stay before hiring them back. That's why employment is considered a lagging economic indicator (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/business/V7004.htm). Employers are bracing for their third year in a row of double-digit increases in health care costs, according to industry consultants and analysts. The sharply higher costs could lead many employers to offer fewer health plans, reduce what they cover, or shift more costs to employees. Companies will probably face average increases of 12 to 15 percent in 2003, compared with a projected increase of 12.7 percent this year, according to Mercer Human Resources Consulting (The New York Times, page C1). Temporary managers are in demand. One of the sure signs of a beginning (economic) recovery is the growing use of temporary workers, says John A. Challenger, chief executive of Challenger, Gray Christmas, an international outplacement firm based in Chicago. More companies are putting feelers out for managers available for temporary assignments, indicating that the post September 11 slump may be coming to an end, added Darlene Lepore, New England vice president of Adecco Employment Services, Inc., a Swiss company that has its U.S. headquarters in Melville, N.Y. And once the economy picks up speed, some of the managers now working on a contractual basis will be in line for full-time slots, Lepore and other employment specialists say (Boston Globe). Gasoline prices, which have soared 27 percent in the past 3 months, are headed upward in coming weeks to perhaps the third highest level ever, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said yesterday. U.S. gas prices may hit a summer-long average of $1.46 for a gallon of unleaded regular, with a one-week peak of $1.55 sometime in May or June, as families take to the roads in warmer weather and later head off on summer vacations, Abraham said (The Washington Post, page A1). A jump in imports spurred by the economic rebound widened the U.S. trade deficit by 11.6 percent to $31.5 billion in February, according to figures released April 17 by the Commerce Department (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment: March 2002 application/ms-tnef
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RELEASED TODAY: Regional and state unemployment rates were generally stable in March, but were higher than a year earlier. All four regions reported little or no change form February, and 43 states recorded shifts of 0.3 percentage point or less, the Bureau of Labor statistics reported today. The national jobless rate was little changed at 5.7 percent. Nonfarm employment decreased in 25 states and the District of Columbia. About 29 million full-time wage and salary workers had flexible work schedules in May 2001, a 1.2 percentage point increase from May 1997, the last time the data were collected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. BLS said the proportion of workers using flexible schedules increased to 28.8 percent in 2001, nearly double the proportion of 10 years earlier (Daily Labor Report, page D-5). The all-settlements average first-year wage increase in agreements reported in the first quarter of 2002 was 4.4 percent, compared with 3.8 percent in the first quarter of 2001, according to data compiled by BNA. The second-and third-year average increases in agreements reported in the first quarter were 3.7 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, compared with second-and third-year increases of 3.5 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, reported in the first quarter of 2001 (Daily Labor Report, page D-13). New claims for unemployment insurance benefits filed during the week ending April 13 totaled 445,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 444,000, according to the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration (Daily Labor Report, page D-2). Labor Secretary Elaine L. Chao defended her plan for reducing repetitive-stress injuries in the workplace with voluntary guidelines for employers, saying the program would produce results faster than government regulationsIn a prepared statement, AFL-CIO President John J. Sweeney called the Chao proposal an insult because a recent Bureau of Labor Statistics report found that almost 600,000 workers last year suffered injuries that required them to take at lease one day off work. Work is increasingly a dangerous place to be, Sweeney said (The Washington Post, pages E1 and E5). Senate Democrats were sharply critical of Labor Secretary Elaine Chao's ergonomics plan at a Health, Education, Labor and Pension Committee hearing April 18, during which Chao announced that the department will develop effective, workable guidelines for nursing homes. The announced ergonomics plan includes a four-pronged approach to reducing workplace musculoskeletal disorders: industry-specific and task-specific guidelines, strong and effective enforcement, extensive outreach and assistance, and research. Sen. Paul Wellstone D-Minn.) said that OSHA has no definition for musculoskeletal disorders for record keeping. OSHA Administrator Henshaw told reporters outside the hearing that OSHA will use the definition for MSDs that is used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for now. BLS defines a musculoskeletal disorder as an injury or disorder of the muscles, nerves, tendons, joints, cartilage, and spinal discs. MSDs do not include disorders caused by slips, trips, falls, motor vehicle accidents, or similar accidents (Daily Labor Report, page AA-1). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
RELEASED TODAY: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6 percent in March, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 178.8 (1982-84=100), the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. For the 12-month period ended in March, the CPI-U increased 1.5 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also increased 0.6 percent in March, prior to seasonal adjustment. The March level of 174.7 was 1.2 percent higher than the index in March 2001. RELEASED TODAY: Real average weekly earnings were about unchanged from February to March after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 0.3 percent increase in average hourly earnings was offset by a 0.3 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Average weekly hours were unchanged. Lingering weakness in the U.S. labor market makes it unlikely that private industry employers will feel pressured to boost workers' annual wages by more than about 3.5 percent over the remainder of this year, according to new Wage Trend Indicator figures released April 16 by BNADesigned as a leading indicator of private industry wage trends, the WTI predicts turning points six to seven months in advance of when they are evident in the government's employment cost index. Compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the ECI is the government's broadest measure of compensation. BLS is scheduled to release first quarter ECI figures on April 25 ( Daily Labor Report, page D-1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Usual Weekly Earnings of Wage and Salary Workers: First Quarter 2002 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, APRIL 15, 2002: One important measure of U.S. inflation rose sharply last month as the surge in world oil prices since mid-January began to work its way through the economy, the Labor Department reported Friday. Producer prices for finished goods rose 1 percent last month, the largest monthly increase since the beginning of last year, principally because of a 5.5 percent jump in energy prices. That included a 21.3 percent increase in the prices refiners charge for gasoline following a 4.5 percent rise in February. However, the rising cost of energy -- evident in recent weeks to motorists at the gas pump -- so far does not appear large enough to derail the U.S. economic recovery. It would take a much larger and more sustained oil price shock to seriously damage the economy, partly because it is significantly less dependent on oil than in the past, analysts say. The University of Michigan said its monthly index of consumer sentiment fell slightly for the first part of this month instead of rising as most financial analysts had expected. University analysts attributed the decline to concerns about inflation (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, April 13, page E1). Escalating oil and energy prices, particularly for gasoline, pushed wholesale prices up 1 percent in March, compared with increases of 0.2 percent in February and 0.1 percent in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported April 12. The price of finished energy goods rose 5.5 percent in March compared with a 0.4 percent increase in February. The so-called core rate of wholesale inflation -- finished goods minus food and energy -- rose 0.1 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Sharply higher gasoline costs drove up wholesale prices in March by the largest amount in 14 months, the government reported today. In addition, shoppers hit by higher energy bills, spent modestly on other items. The government reports released today suggested that the economy was hitting some rough patches. Though many economists believe that the surge in energy prices is temporary and note that oil prices have retreated, the increase helped make consumers less willing to spend (Associated Press, The New York Times, April 13, page B4). Businesses worked off excess stocks of unsold goods in February for the 13th month in a row, potentially setting the stage for ramped-up production in the future. The Commerce Department reported today that unsold goods on shelves and back lots fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent in February. The drop came even as businesses' sales declined by 0.9 percent. One of the biggest sources of the national economy's weakness has been aggressive inventory liquidation by businesses. To cope with lackluster sales, manufacturers sharply cut production and companies ended up heavily discounting merchandise, which began piling up as the economy slowed (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/361432p-2932024c.html). More than 7 months after September 11, some of the heightened workplace precautions predicted in the days following the attacks haven't materialized. For example: Just 15 percent of employers reported that background checks on employees are more comprehensive now than before September 11, according to an online poll by the Society for Human Resource Management. Just 18 percent of human resource professionals reported their companies had been restricting business travel, according to a November survey by workplace law firm Jackson Lewis. About half of Americans say its very or somewhat likely there will be another attack, a recent USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll showed. That's down from more than 80 percent in October. But demand for security guards remains high in areas such as Boston, New York, Washington and Pennsylvania, experts say. If there's a decline, it's more like a denial that something will happen, said Guardsmark CEO Ira Lipman, adding that tapering demand has been seen in some small towns and the South. And some mail precautions have also persisted. The Jackson Lewis survey found about half of companies had changed mail handling procedures since September 11 (USA Today, page 1B). Faculty salaries at the nation's colleges and universities rose 3.3 percent in the current academic year to an average of $62,895, the largest increase in 11 years, the American Association of University Professors reports. The association's report predicts that the increase in faculty salary will be smaller in 2002-03 because of the economic downturn that peaked after the events of September 11. The sagging economy did not dent the current raises because they were set at the end of the last school year. The report showed sharp differences in pay among the nation's academic institutions, with research universities and the most selective colleges paying professors far more than colleges that focus on drawing students from their
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, APRIL 11, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The U.S. Import Price Index increased 1.1 percent in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The increase, the largest since September 2000, was attributable to a large jump in petroleum prices. The Export Price Index also increased in March, up 0.3 percent, after declining in each of the previous 5 months. A declining trend in the most severe class of workplace injuries plateaued in 2000, as employers recorded 1.7 million injuries and illnesses requiring a day or more of recovery time -- the same figure as the year before -- the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. In contrast, BLS says, the number of reported restricted duty cases, those where injured workers return to the workplace but perform less strenuous jobs, dropped slightly in 2000. By occupation, truck drivers had the highest total number of injuries requiring time away from work, with a total of 136,000 cases in 2000, according to BLS. Musculoskeletal disorders -- including back injuries, carpal tunnel syndrome, and neck and tendon disorders -- accounted for more than one-third of the total U.S. injuries and illnesses requiring time away from work, or 34.7 percent of the total in 2000, BLS says (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Two trends in compensation for chief executive officers were evident in 2001 -- an ongoing divide between company performance and executive pay, and a double standard on retirement and job security for CEOs compared with workers, AFL-CIO Secretary-Treasurer Richard L. Trumka, said April 10. While CEO pay usually is based on performance, he said, corporate profits declined by 35 percent, stock prices fell by 13 percent, and 1.4 million workers were laid off last year. Trumka said that while some CEOs took pay cuts, lowering average pay by 8 percent, the majority got raises, raising median pay by 7 percent (Daily Labor Report, page A-4). Fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment insurance last week, though the layoffs picture continues to be clouded by a technical fluke that was a big factor in the surge in claims during the week before. The Labor Department reported today that new claims for jobless benefits dropped by a seasonally adjusted 55,000 to 438,000, for the work week ending April 6. Even with the decline, a government analyst said the claims number continued to be inflated because of the fluke: Laid-off workers seeking to take advantage of a federal extension for benefits were required to submit new claims. Congress recently passed legislation signed into law by President Bush that provided a 13-week extension of jobless benefits (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/355432p-2895178c.html). The nation's leading retailers reported solid sales gains in March, although an expected boost from the Easter holiday was muted by unseasonably cool weather and shoppers' continued reluctance to splurge. As the big stores released their sales figures today, analysts said they were heartened by an improvement in the battered department store sector. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., the world's largest retailer, again outperformed the rest of the industry. It raised its sales projections for the first quarter today, after reporting impressive March sales gains that beat Wall Street expectations, Anne D'Innocenzio, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/business/V3241.htm). Even during the recent recession, municipalities across the nation have been adopting living wage laws, which have a higher pay scale than the longstanding federal and state minimum wage laws. Thus far, about 82 cities, counties, and universities have enacted living wage laws over the past 11 years, and campaigns are underway in more than 75 other areas across the country, according to ACORN, the grass-roots organization spearheading most of the living wage movement. The number of workers affected by the law nationally has been small, as few as 100,000, according to one report (Boston Globe). In a surprisingly hawkish interview, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole says the Fed must be vigilant in its fight against inflation even though price pressures in the U.S. economy currently are benign. Poole says the Fed does not have to wait for unemployment to fall for policymakers to feel comfortable raising interest rates, as some analysts argue. The jobless rate, which rose from 5.5 percent in February to 5.7 percent in March, is subject to too many outside factors, such as bad weather or an influx of workers in the labor force, he says. If the unemployment rate is the only thing that is sticking out there, and everything else is going the other way, then the unemployment rate is not decisive, Poole says. Other Fed officials have been more cautionary. Dallas Fed President Robert McTeer told Reuters last week he wanted to see the unemployment rate fall below 5 percent and industrial
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, APRIL 12, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 1.0 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. This increase followed a 0.2 percent increase in February and a 0.1 percent rise in January. The intermediate goods index advanced 1.0 percent in March, after dropping 0.1 percent in the prior month. Prices received by producers of crude goods rose 4.0 percent, following a 0.8 percent decline in February. Wholesale prices shot up 1 percent in March, lifted by the largest jump in gasoline costs in nearly 3 years. The big advance in the Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach consumers, comes after wholesale prices edged up 0.2 percent in February, the Labor Department reported today. The jolt last month largely came from a sharp increase in energy prices, especially gasoline. That caused the overall reading on wholesale inflation to be worse than the 0.7 percent increase many analysts were bracing for. In another report, sales at the nation's retailers rose a modest 0.2 percent in March for the second month in a row, the Commerce Department said (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/357446p-2905766c.html). Prices of goods imported into the U.S. in March rose at the fastest pace in 1 1/2 years, led by a surge in oil prices that may restrain consumer spending and economic growth. The 1.1 percent increase in the import price index, reflecting the biggest gain in energy costs since April 1999, followed a 0.1 percent drop in February, the Labor Department said (Bloomberg News, Reuters, http://www.latimes.com/business/la-26024apr12.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines% 2Dbusiness). Surging oil prices pushed up imported goods at their fastest pace in 18 months in March, highlighting how energy costs are a new restraint on the still young economic recovery. Other data showed hiring and capital spending plans remain weak. Overall import prices rose 1.1 percent in March, after falling 0.1 percent in February, the Labor Department said yesterday, as petroleum prices climbed 15.7 percent, the biggest surge in nearly 3 years. Nonpetroleum prices, however, were unchanged. Export prices rose for the first time in 6 months, climbing 0.3 percent. March's climb in crude prices mostly reflected strengthening global demand as the U.S. and its trading partners pull out of recession. Prices have risen further this month with the violence in the Middle East, though they have erased part of that increase. Many economists say higher energy costs will sap household purchasing power and erode profit margins, but doubt that the economy will fall back into recession as a result. The impact of inflation is expected to be transitory. Separately, the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, an Arlington, Va. business research group, said its March survey of 57 senior financial executives at big manufacturers found just 12 percent plan to boost capital spending this year, the lowest proportion in more than 2 years (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). U.S. consumers kept spending in March but at only a modest rate, the Commerce Department said today in a report that hinted the economy's pace of recovery from recession is likely to be a measured one. Retail sales rose 0.2 percent in March, matching a downwardly revised 0.2 percent gain in February. Previously, February sales had been reported as up 0.3 percent. March sales excluding autos were up a slightly stronger 0.4 percent, while February purchases outside the auto sector were revised to unchanged from a 0.2 percent gain (Reuters, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37217-2002Apr12.html). Wealthy consumers stepped up their buying in March, resulting in better-than-expected sales for some high-end sellers and offering new hope for an overall economic recovery. Menswear, another long-suffering part of the retail business, also saw a bit of a pickup, retailers said yesterday. In addition to gains reported earlier by some key large jewelry store chains and apparel manufacturers -- and continued strong results from discount retailers -- Tuesday's reports seemed to offer new evidence of a steady improvement for retailers, a key indicator for the broader economy (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-26053apr12.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines %2Dbusiness). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 10, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: A total of 1.7 million injuries and illnesses in private industry required recuperation away from work beyond the day of the incident in 2000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of these cases in 2000 was about the same as in 1999. Since 1992 (when the series started), there has been a steady decline in the number of these lost worktime injuries and illnesses. Portland, Ore., at 8.9 percent, had the highest February unemployment rate among big cities, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Work Week by Carlos Tejada, The Wall Street Journal, page B3). Your thoughts on whether the economy is on the rebound may depend upon the degree on your wall, says Carlos Tejada, writing in the Work Week feature (The Wall Street Journal, page B3). Employment among people with college degrees rose 2.4 percent, representing about 900,000 jobs, between December and March. Meanwhile, less-educated workers saw decreases or little improvement. Better-educated workers tend to see their fortunes rise first, says economist Alan Krueger of Princeton, University. Workers were asked who is most likely to be treated unfairly in the workplace, according to a page 1B graph in USA Today. Twenty-one percent responded African Americans, 18 percent said Arab Americans, 13 percent indicated Hispanics, 12 percent said Muslims, and 8 percent responded women. Source of the data is the John J Heldrich Center for Workforce Development, Heldrich Work Trends Survey of 1,005 workers. Import prices in March, due out tomorrow, will probably rise 0.4 percent, after inching 0.1 percent lower through February. That's based on the median forecast of economists surveyed by Standard Poor's MMS, a unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies. March export prices are forecast to have fallen 0.2 percent for a second straight month (Business Week, April 15, page 122). Producer prices of finished goods, due out Friday, will probably jump 0.5 percent during March, after a 0.2 percent increase in February according to predictions by Business Week. Excluding food and energy, core prices will probably rise a smaller 0.2 percent, after remaining unchanged in February. (Business Week, April 15, page 122). Beginning June 30, it'll cost more to keep those cards, letters, and magazines coming. The first-class mail rate will rise 3 cents to 37 cents, a postcard stamp will rise 2 cents to 23 cents, and most other prices will also go up. The new rates were approved in February and the effective date was announced yesterday by the Postal Service's board of governors. The package of rate increases are aimed at helping the Postal Service cope with declining business and revenue triggered by the post September 11 anthrax attacks and the recession. At the same time, Postmaster General John Potter repeated his promise that rates won't rise again until at least 2004 (The Wall Street Journal, page D2; Randolph E. Schmid, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/352136p-2878436c.html). DUE OUT TOMORROW: U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes -- March 2002. application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, APRIL 9, 2002: Labor shortages caused when baby boomers retire will slow economic growth in the United States and could plunge the fastest-aging countries in Europe and Asia into permanent recession, according to a summary of a report released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Commission on Global aging. Three factors are creating the impending crisis: the shrinking proportion of young people entering the workforce throughout the developed world, the inevitable liquidation of savings by baby boomers in their retirement years, and medical advances that keep people living longer. But labor shortages will lead labor-intensive work to be outsourced to the developing world, while immigration will help to fill skilled worker bottlenecks. Investment in fast-growing emerging markets will achieve the best stock market returns, these experts predict. The CSIS commission proposed 55 steps that aging countries might take to blunt the impact of the coming boomer economic bust. Among them: boosting labor force participation by women and the elderly, relaxing some immigration and citizenship laws, and providing tax breaks to encourage couples to have children (The Washington Post, page A17). Wholesalers reduced inventories again in February, the Commerce Department reports. Inventories fell 0.7 percent, a ninth consecutive decline that left suppliers at a 2-year low. Sales at wholesalers rose 0.8 percent in February, setting the stage for a rebound in manufacturing and a sustained economic recovery (Bloomberg News, The New York Times, page C7; http://www.latimes.com/business/la-25252apr09.story?coll=%2Dheadlines%2D business). Education increases income, says USA Today, in its page 3B box showing median household income, based on education. According to it, households in which there is a professional degree have an income of $100,000; those with a doctorate degree, $97,325; households in which there is a Masters degree have an income of $74,476; those with a bachelor's degree $64,406; households with an associate degree, $49,279; those with some college, no degree, $44,149; households that include a high school graduate, $35,744; households with an education consisting of ninth to 12th grade, $21,737, and households that include someone with below a ninth grade education, $17,261. Income is based on 1999 data from the U.S. Census and the College Board. DUE OUT TOMORROW: Lost-Worktime Injuries and Illnesses: Characteristics and Resulting Time Away from Work, 2000 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, APRIL 5, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Both payroll employment and the unemployment rate were little changed in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Manufacturing and construction each lost nearly 40,000 jobs, but services employment grew substantially. Both the manufacturing workweek and overtime hours rose over the month. The nation's unemployment rate nudged up to 5.7 percent in March, although employment added 58,000 new positions to payrolls, the Labor Department said today. The discrepancy signaled that the strengthening economy hasn't completely filtered down to the job market The March rate was an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Economists had been expecting a rise to at least 5.6 percent. Employment gains in services and local government tempered job losses in construction and manufacturing, and overall, U.S. businesses added 58,000 new jobs last month. That's the first gain in 7 months and it compared with a revised loss in February of 2,000 payroll jobs. As it did during the last recession that ended in 1991, the nation's unemployment rate still could rise in coming months as businesses regain financial strength. Some economists predict the rate will climb to more than 6 percent before a prolonged drop-off occurs (Leigh Strope, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/344838p-2840005c.html). The pace of retail job cuts, which increased dramatically after September 11, has accelerated in 2002, and this year's cuts may be the worse in at least 2 decades, as the industry consolidates, according to a major employment study to be released Monday. During the first 3 months of this year, 51,078 retail job cuts have been announced, including the 22,000 job losses that Kmart Corp. announced in the wake of its bankruptcy filing, according to a survey by Challenger, Gray Christmas, Inc. an employment research and recruiting firm. That is already half way toward matching last year's record of 96,741 cuts, Challenger says. Based on the first-quarter figures, merchants are eliminating an average of 17,026 jobs per month, and John Challenger, chief executive, expects that pace will continue, with this year's total estimate to exceed 200,000. This is going to be the year in which retailers come to terms with changes of consumer behavior that was precipitated by the recession, Challenger said. He said the job losses will be the worst since the early 1980s. Challenger believes the retail category could be ranked among the top two industries, rivaling the telecommunications and automotive sectors, as having the largest downsizing this year. Last year, retailing didn't make it to the top 10 industries hardest hit by layoffs (Anne D'Innocenzio, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/344122p-2835397c.html). American workers now put more money into pensions and retirement savings plans sponsored by their employers than the companies themselves do, writes Edward Wyatt in The New York Times (page 1). That remarkable milestone, determined by pension researchers reviewing the most recent data, shows just how far companies have moved away from the system of decades past, in which employers alone financed the retirement savings of their workers and toward 401(k) and similar retirement plans financed mostly by workers. application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, APRIL 8, 2002: The unemployment rate edged up 0.2 percentage points to 5.7 percent in March, but employers added 58,000 workers to their payrolls, further proof that a recovery is under way, according to figures released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Manufacturing payroll figures fell by 38,000 in March as hours worked jumped 0.8 percent. Construction payrolls declined 37,000, and small declines were seen in retail, wholesale, transportation, and finance payrolls. Help supply services added 69,000. This was the second consecutive month of job growth in the industry that lost nearly a fifth of its jobs from September 2000 through January 2002 (Daily Labor Report, page D-1, Text E-10). The nation's jobless rate rose last month, but the number of payroll jobs increased and there were other signs that U.S. labor markets are stabilizing after last year's recession. The unemployment rate increased sharply late last year after the September 11 terrorist attacks. The rate reached a peak of 5.8 percent in December, fell to 5.6 percent in January and 5.5 percent in February, before going up to 5.7 percent last month, the Labor Department reported Friday. Meanwhile, non-farm employers added 58,000 jobs to payrolls last month, the first increase in 8 months, after cutting them by 2,000 in February. The February figure was revised downward significantly from the original estimate of a 66,000 gain (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, April 6, page E1). The Labor Department reported yesterday that the unemployment rate rebounded to 5.7 percent last month, erasing the improvement since January and clearly suggesting that the growing economy is not yet benefiting workers. Still, the March numbers were laced with evidence of growth. Employers expanded their payrolls on a seasonally adjusted basis by 58,000 jobs, a relatively meager gain but the first monthly increase since July. Temporary-help agencies added workers at a rapid clip, a signal that companies need people to meet rising demand, but are not yet willing to hire more permanent employees. Manufacturers piled on the overtime, and layoffs declined, suggesting that companies, expecting better times, are becoming more reluctant to downsize (Louis Uchitelle in The New York Times, April 6, page A1). Recession wary employers are beginning to hire again, but with a caution that shows the recovery faces stiff headwinds. Aside from agricultural jobs, payrolls rose 58,000 in March from February, the first increase in 8 months, the Department of Labor said Friday. But while the improvement was encouraging, the overall picture hasn't changed much: Job creation remains tepid (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). The Wall Street Journal's feature Tracking the Economy (page A2) shows import prices for March, due to be released by BLS Thursday, are expected to go up 0.6 percent according to the Consensus Forecast, in contrast to the decline of 0.1 percent last month. The Producer Price Index for March, to be announced Friday, is expected to move up 0.7 percent, compared to a 0.2 increase percent in February. The Producer Price Index excluding food and energy for March is expected to go up 0.1 percent, in compared to the 0.0 percent of the previous month. Carl Steidtmann, chief economist of Deloitte Research, jointly owned by the accounting firm Deloitte Touch and Deloitte Consulting, is said by The Wall Street Journal's The Outlook column (page A1) to have compared changes in consumer confidence and consumer spending over the past 20 years. His finding: There is very little, if any, relationship between confidence and spending. He says that spending and confidence are driven by a different set of factors. Specifically, politics, disasters and war drive confidence, Steidtmann says, while cash flow drives spending. But Ken Goldstein, a economist at the Conference Board which publishes the Consumer Confidence Index, concedes that his index won't tell investors whether spending will rise by 1 or 2 percent in the future, but when it comes to providing an overall sense of whether the consumer market is building or losing momentum, this thing works like a charm. If that's the case, consumer spending could surge in coming months along with the booming confidence numbers. The Conference Board's latest survey surged 15 points in March to 110.2, the highest level since the September terrorist attacks. The Michigan index grew by five points to 95.7, the highest level since December 2000. Salaries for the nation's teachers barely kept pace with living costs in the 1990s, rising 31 percent to about $43,000, the nation's largest teachers union -- the National Education Association -- says in its annual report on state spending on education. The report says teachers' salaries rose 0.5 percent from 1990 to 2000 when inflation is taken into account. In many states, the union said, teachers lost ground to
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, APRIL 4, 2001: New claims for unemployment insurance shot up last week, but the layoffs picture was distorted by federal requirements related to how laid-off workers who exhausted their benefits may seek to get them extended. For the work week ending March 30, new claims for jobless benefits jumped by a seasonally adjusted 64,000 to 460,000, the highest level since the beginning of December, the Labor Department reported today. Many analysts had expected new claims to fall. Because a Federal provision requires workers whose benefits are exhausted to file a new claim so that they can become eligible for an extension of Federal jobless benefits, the weekly claims figures could be volatile in the next few week. The benefit program is part of an economic stimulus package passed by Congress to help workers who lost their jobs amid last year's recession and in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks. Private economists polled by Reuters had expected claims to fall to 376,000 in the March 30 week. The Labor Department reported claims of 394,000 for the week of March 23. In a sign that people are still struggling to find work, the number of unemployed who had already qualified for a week of benefits rose to 3.608 million in the week ended March 23. This was well above the 2.494 million registered for the same period a year ago. More data on the U.S. jobs market are due out tomorrow, with the release of the March non-farm payrolls report. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 5.6 percent from 5.5 percent in February, and outside the farm sector, 41,000 jobs are expected to be created compared with a gain of 66,000 in February (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/V0456.htm; Nancy Waitz, Reuters, http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2997408.htm). Income inequality rose, dropped sharply, and then surged in the last century. In the 80's and 90's, top income groups carried an increasingly large share of the total income in the United States, according to Alan B. Krueger, Berndheim Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University writing in the Economic Scene columns of The Wall Street Journal (page C2). Before the 1940's the wealthiest Americans earned the bulk of their income from returns on capital. But capital taxation has had a cumulative effect on top incomes. Today's rich are not so different from the rest of us after all -- they, too, work for a living. But they earn a lot more money. In 2001, the average chief executive of an industrial company with approximately $500 million in sales was paid $1.9 million, according to the Towers Perrin Worldwide Total Remuneration Report. After adjusting for inflation, salaries of chief executives grew almost 6 percent a year in the 1980's and 1990's. Wage growth has been so strong at the high end that the top 1 percent of taxpayers have taken home 84 percent of the growth in total income since 1973. Data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs through April 1 for all contract settlements show that the average first-year wage increase in newly negotiated contracts is 4.3 percent, compared with 3.9 percent in the comparable period last year. The manufacturing average increase was 2.5 percent, compared with 3.3 percent in 2001, and the median was 2.8 percent, compared with 3 percent. The nonmanufacturing (excluding construction) average increase is 5.2 percent, compared with 4 percent in 2001, and the median was 4 percent, compared with 3.8 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). After accounting for inflation, tuition at 4-year public colleges is up 128 percent since 1980-81, tuition at private 4-year colleges is up 131 percent. After taking into account family incomes and available student financial aid, the affordability of public 4-year colleges varies among states. Most affordable are in Utah, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas, and Minnesota. Least affordable are in Vermont, Rhode Island, New York, California, and New Hampshire. Source of the data is the College Board (USA Today, page 12A). DUE OUT TOMORROW: The Employment Situation, March 2002. application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, APRIL 2, 2002: About 6.6 percent of U.S. families had at least one unemployed family member last year, compared with 5.7 percent the year before, the Labor Department says (The Wall Street Journal Work Week feature, page A1). The Bureau of Labor Statistics weighs the merits of including medical expenses borne by employers, not just consumers, in the consumer price index. Given current trends, that would likely nudge up measured inflation. Bureau official John Greenlees cautions such a change isn't currently in the works but could eventually be tested in an experimental index (The Wall Street Journal Work Week feature, page A1). A dwindling proportion of young less educated black men are employed today, compared with 20 years ago. At the same time, employment among similarly educated black women has soared and job rates among comparable whites and Latinos have not changed, according to a major study to be released today by the Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy. Paul Offner and Harry Holzer of the Georgetown Public Policy Institute found that employment and labor force participation rates of young black men with no more than a high school diploma currently lag 10 to 25 percentage points behind similarly educated white and Hispanic men. Holzer and Offner examined government data collected between 1979 and 2000 from black, white and Hispanic men and women ages 16 to 24 who were out of school and had a high school education or less. Barely half -- 52 percent -- of the black men were employed in 2000, compared with 62 percent two decades earlier, they found. Employment levels of young white and Hispanic men have held steady over the past two decades, with nearly eight in 10 working. At the same time, the employment rate for young similarly educated black women has increased from 37 to 52 percent (The Washington Post, page A13). Layoff announcements at U.S. firms fell in March to their lowest level in 10 months but remain higher than the monthly average during the last recession, suggesting recovery could be slow and uneven, Challenger Gray Christmas said today. The outplacement firm said in a monthly report that job cuts announced in March, 102,315, was 20 percent fewer than the 128,115 layoff announcements in February. But Challenger warned that although an economic recovery may be underway, it is still too early to declare a persistent reversal of the rising trend in unemployment (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-04-02-layoff-plans.htm). Orders to U.S. factories dipped 0.1 percent in February, as weaker demand for computers and cars eclipsed gains for household appliances and industrial machinery, the Commerce Department reported today. It marked the first drop in overall orders since November and followed a solid 1.1 percent advance in January. The weaker-than-expected performance in orders for a wide variety of manufactured goods comes just one day after a more forward-looking report offered some good news for the nation's struggling manufacturing sector (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/338919p-2811397c.html). Retail sales at discount, chain, and department stores fell the first 4 weeks of March, as an expected boost from Easter-related sales failed to materialize, Instinet Research said Tuesday. The Redbook Retail Sales Average slipped 1.1 percent the 4 weeks ended March 30, compared with the same period last month. Sales compared with the same week last year were up 3.7 percent. This week's performance was seen as disappointing in light of an expected surge in sales into Easter weekend, Redbook said (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/retail/2002-04-02-redbook.htm; Anne D'Innocenzio, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/337701p-2804114c.html; The New York Times, page C2). Even with Social Security and 401(k) plans, American aren't saving enough, declares Louis Uchitelle (The New York Times, March 31, Week in Review Section 4, page 1). Congress authorized 401(k) accounts in 1978, allowing workers to defer taxes on retirement savings. The intent was to supplement company plans, not displace them, says Uchitelle. But that is what is happening. By 1998, the latest year for which Labor Department figures are available, 27 percent of the more than 100 million privately employed Americans had 401(k) accounts to supplement Social Security in retirement. An additional 15 percent had both 401(k)'s and company-paid pensions. Yet the percentage of workers with only a company-paid pension on top of Social Security plummeted to 7 percent in 1998, from 28 percent in 1979. During this period, no group has had more time to accumulate savings in 401(k)'s than people now in their late 50's and early 60's. Some in this age group have built their accounts into rich nest eggs, but many have not. By 1998, the average amount
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 3, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: In February, 266 metropolitan areas recorded higher unemployment rates than a year earlier, 40 areas had lower rates, and 16 areas had rates that were unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Thirteen metropolitan areas had jobless rates of at least 10.0 percent, eight of which were located in California's agricultural Central Valley. Sixteen areas posted unemployment rates below 3.0 percent, with nine located in the South and five in the Midwest. The national unemployment rate was 6.1 percent, not seasonally adjusted, in February. (Data for the nine metropolitan areas in Michigan were not available at the time of release). The massive U.S. service sector expanded for the second straight month in March, but the pace of activity slowed from the nearly 1-1/2 year peaks hit in February, a report shows today. The Institute for Supply Management, an industry trade group, said its monthly nonmanufacturing index slipped to 57.3 in March from 58.7 in February, against market expectations for a 57.0 reading. March marks the second straight month the index has stayed above the 50 mark, indicating expansion in the sector that includes everything from transportation to legal and financial services. In February, the index surged well above expectations to its highest level since November 2000, prompting economists to raise their growth forecasts for the U.S. economy (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-04-03-services.htm). U.S. vehicle sales fell a mild 1 percent last month compared with March 2001, offering encouragement to analysts and automakers that demand will strengthen and the nation's economy will continue to improve. Sales of passenger cars fell 2 percent compared with the same month a year ago, while light truck sales slipped 1 percent, the industry reported Tuesday. Several automakers say strength in sales to retail customers helped their results. The month was better than most forecasts and better than Detroit was expecting, said David Healy, an analyst with Burnham Securities. That means that production will probably increase in the second quarter (David Runk, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/340068p-2815793c.html). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, APRIL 1, 2002: The proportion of families with an unemployed member increased 1 percentage point to 6.6 percent in 2001, reflecting the recession, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. Among the nation's 72 million families, 82.9 percent shared at least one employed member in 2001, a 0.3 percentage point decline from the previous year. In 2001, 4.8 million families had at least one member unemployed in an average week, an increase of 665,000 from 2000, BLS found. Black families had the highest proportion of unemployed members, 11.4 percent, higher than for Hispanics, 9.9 percent, or white families, 5.8 percent. (Daily Labor Report, page D-9). Personal income rose a solid 0.6 percent in February, following an upwardly revised 0.5 percent gain in January, the Commerce Department said March 29. The increase in personal income was stronger than analysts were expecting and brought income to $8.88 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. It was matched by a 0.6 percent increase in personal consumption, or consumer spending, to $7.25 trillion (Daily Labor Report, page D-3). Amid the shaky economy of the past couple of years, housing has emerged as the central pillar of support. The market for housing has become less volatile and less prone to oversupply than before; it has also become the Federal Reserve's main lever for reviving the economy. From the very beginning of the downturn last year, the housing market has been strong. And that remains true today. In February, sales of new homes grew 5.3 percent, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 875,000, thanks to good weather and low mortgage rates. Sales of existing homes in February fell only slightly from the record annual pace in January of 6.05 million. Housing prices have been increasing faster than general inflation for several years, and they have accelerated in recent months to their fastest real rate of gain in decades. All this has bolstered consumer spending and helped salve the wounds that the falling stock market inflicted on households (The New York Times, March 30, page B1). The Wall Street Journal feature Tracking the Economy (page A2) indicates that according to the consensus forecast, nonfarm payrolls for March, to be released Friday of this week, will increase 50,000, a decline from the 66,000 increase for February. The unemployment rate for March, to be released Friday as well, is predicted to be 5.6 percent, in contrast to the 5.5 percent actual rate in February. Manufacturing activity grew for a second straight month in March, offering further evidence that the sector is back on track after a one-year slump, the Institute for Supply Management of Tempe, Ariz., formerly known as the National Association of Purchasing Management, says. Its index of business activity rose to 55.6 percent in March from 54.7 percent in February. Analysts had been expecting a reading of 54.3. An index above 50 signifies growth in manufacturing, while a figure below 50 shows contraction (Hope Yen, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/337309p-2802029c.html). Construction spending posted its biggest increase in a year in February as builders took advantage of Americans' demand for new homes. The Commerce Department reported that spending on construction projects grew by a bigger-than expected 1.1 percent in February. Many analysts were forecasting a smaller, 0.6 percent rise. It was the third straight monthly rise. Virtually all of the strength came from increased spending on residential construction, which rose 3.5 percent, especially single-family homes (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/337295p-2801918c.html). A hard-to-quantify but closely watched indicator has joined the growing number of signs that the economy is recovering. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, based on a monthly survey of some 5,000 U.S. households, surged in March to its highest level in 7 months. The result exceeded expectations by many analysts, who credited the increase to the brightening job outlook (http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0401/p16s01-wmgn.html). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MARCH 29, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Reflecting the economic downturn that began early in 2001, the proportion of families containing an unemployed member rose by nearly a percentage point to 6.6 percent between 2000 and 2001, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Of the nation's 72 million families, the share with at least one employed member fell by 0.3 percentage point to 82.9 percent in 2001. These data on employment, unemployment, and family relationships are collected as part of the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly sample survey of about 60,000 households. Families include married-couple families, as well as families maintained by a man or a woman with no spouse present. Mass layoff events totaled 1,383 in February, resulting in job losses for 138,984 workers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of mass layoff events declined from January, when 2,146 events resulted in 263,821 initial claimants for unemployment insurance -- the highest amount of January claimants since the series began in April 1995 (Daily Labor Report, page D-15). New claims for unemployment insurance benefits filed during the week ending March 23 totaled 394,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 376,000, according to the Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor. The less volatile, more closely watched 4-week moving average increased 3,250 to 383,500 for the period ended March 23, from the previous week's revised average of 380,250, ETA said. The proportion of the workforce receiving unemployment benefits was 2.7 percent, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised figure for the week ending March 16 (Daily Labor Report, page D-12; The New York Times, page C11). The Help-Wanted Advertising index increased four points to 51 in February, but remains down from a year ago, according to the Conference Board. In the last 3 months, help-wanted advertising increased in seven out of nine U.S. regions. The largest increase, 46.9 percent, occurred in the East North Central region, which includes newspapers in Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Detroit. In the Mountain region of Denver, Phoenix, and Salt Lake City, the rate increased 33.9 percent (Daily Labor Report, page A-3). Consumers spent heavily in February, as their incomes increased solidly -- more signs that the U.S. economy is gaining strength after a brief recession. The Commerce Department reports that spending by consumers, which accounts for two-thirds of all economic activity in the United States, increased 0.6 percent last month after jumping 0.5 percent in January. At the same time, Americans' incomes, which include wages, interest, and government benefits, also increased by 0.6 percent, the largest expansion since October 2000. Incomes rose 0.5 percent in January. The data reinforces economists' view that the recession, which began last March, has ended and probably will turn out to be the country's mildest downturn ever (Leigh Strope, Associated Press, http:www.nypost.com/apstories/business/VO702.htm). U.S. consumer spending grew briskly in February as incomes rose at the fastest pace since December 2000, the government said today, as the nascent economic recovery picked up speed. U.S. consumer spending increased 0.6 percent last month to $7.25 billion after a 0.5 percent gain in January. Meanwhile, personal income also grew 0.6 percent in February to total $8.88 billion after a 0.5 percent rise in January. Both figures surpassed the expectations of private analysts (Caren Bohan, Reuters, http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2960424.htm). For the fourth straight year, prescription drug spending rose more than 17 percent in 2001, driven in large measure by a few heavily advertised, high-priced medications, a nonpartisan study released yesterday found. Sales of prescription medication at retail stores and through mail-order companies totaled $175.2 billion last year, an increase of $27 billion over 2000, according to the National Institute for Health Care Management. The institute is a private, nonprofit research organization led by physicians, insurance executives, and policymakers from both parties (The Washington Post, page A1; The New York Times, page A18; The Wall Street Journal, page A3; Theresa Agovino, The Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/business/V0025.htm). The gap in homeownership rates between native-born Americans and immigrants grew in the 1980s and 1990s to 20 percentage points, according to a survey by the Research Institute for Housing America, an independent arm of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. But the study also found that the longer immigrants stay in the United States, the more likely they are to become homeowners. While 67 percent of native-born households owned their own homes in 2000, 47 percent of all immigrant households were homeowners. That difference
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MARCH 28, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Employers initiated 1,383 mass layoff actions in February 2002, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment, and the number of workers involved totaled 138,984. Compared with February 2001, the number of layoff events declined by 8 percent and the number of claimants fell by 20 percent. This was the second time in the last 3 months that layoff events and related initial claims declined over the year. More U.S. workers than expected asked for state unemployment aid for the first time last week, the government said today in a sign the labor market was still trying to find its feet amid a recovering economy. The Labor Department said the number of initial jobless claims rose 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 394,000 for the week ended March 23. That was well above Wall Street's expectations that first-time claims would dip to 369,000. The figure rose to its highest level since mid-January when initial claims reached 395,000. However, the latest numbers still remained below the key 400,000 level analysts consider recessionary (Reuters, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A30524-2002Mar28.html). The U.S. economy, which fell into recession in early 2001, was already bouncing back in the final 3 months of the year, growing at an annual rate of 1.7 percent. The latest reading on the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy's health, shows the expansion was at a faster pace than the government previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today. The government initially estimated that the economy grew at a tiny 0.2 percent rate in the fourth quarter, and a month ago that was revised to a 1.4 percent rate. Today's upward revision to the GDP largely reflected an improved trade picture, which was less of a drag on growth in the fourth quarter (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/329238p-2768811c.html). The value of new construction starts in February rose 1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $512.3 billion, as an increase in nonresidential building and public woks offset a decline in single-family housing, according to F. W. Dodge, a building-research division of publisher McGraw Hill Cos. Nonresidential building grew 5 percent from a month earlier, with a 61 percent gain in hotels, 32 percent gain in offices and a 6 percent gain in warehouses. Store construction, which had gradually declined last year, surged 20 percent (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Although they have jobs as health care workers, 1.36 million have no health insurance -- a number that has increased 83 percent since 1998-- a study in this month's American Journal of Public Health says. Compared with the mid-1980s, Insurance coverage was diminished for virtually every health occupation in every type of institution, suggesting a widespread deterioration in the quality of health care jobs, says the study, which was written by three proponents of a national health care system. The study says an increase in private-sector health care jobs, which often have fewer benefits than jobs with public hospitals or health agencies, and a decline in union membership led to the drop. Even doctors go without, the study says, with about 5.4 percent reporting they are uninsured (USA Today, page 3B, http://www.usatoday.com/money/health/2002-03-28-no-insurance.htm). U.S. consumer sentiment vaulted in March to its highest level since December 2000 as job prospects and business conditions improved, making Americans feel better. The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index rose to 95.7 from 90.7 in February. Forecasts were for a reading of 95.1. The data are released directly to market subscribers only and were obtained by Reuters today. The current conditions index, which measures consumers' attitudes about their present financial situation, surged to 100.4 from 96.2 in February. The expectations index, which tracks attitudes about the 12 months ahead, rose to 92.7 from 87.2 (http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-03-28-sentiment.htm). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Employment Characteristics of Families in 2001 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 27, 2002: Unemployment rates increased in 17 states and the District of Columbia in February and decreased in 17 states, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate in 15 states was unchanged from January. Employment and unemployment data for Michigan were not available. For the 10th consecutive month, North Dakota reported the lowest unemployment rate -- 2.9 percent, BLS said. Oregon and Washington posted the highest unemployment rates, 8.1 percent and 7.0 percent, respectively. Wisconsin had the largest monthly increase, 0.6 percentage point. Rhode Island posted the largest rate decline, 0.8 percentage point (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The number of work stoppages involving at least 1,000 workers was at an historic low last year, with 29 major work stoppages during the year, idling 99,000 workers and resulting in 1.2 million workdays of idleness, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Three work stoppages in 2001 accounted for more than two-fifths of all workers idled as a result of strikes last year (Daily Labor Report, page D-9). The slump in California's information technology industry may end soon, and nonfarm employment growth will pick up after three negative quarters in 2001, but the state's heavy reliance on technology, especially for exports, and an uncertain state budget outlook means its recovery may lag that of the nation's by several quarters, a UCLA report says. Total nonfarm employment in California will grow by a meager 0.7 percent in 2002, and then by 2.2 percent in 2003, after negative growth in each of the last three quarters of 2001, the UCLA Anderson Forecast said (Daily Labor Report, page A-12). Workers who have changed jobs frequently in recent years are more likely to be the victims of job cuts than they were in the past, according to Victor Godinez, The Dallas Morning News, http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2937598.htm. Chicago outplacement firm Challenger, Gray Christmas, Inc. found in its most recent Job Market Index that 39.1 percent of unemployed job seekers in the fourth quarter had worked for four or more companies. That was up from 34.27 percent in the third quarter, suggesting that companies are quicker to cut job-hoppers. In addition, the percentage of job seekers who had worked for only one company in their careers dropped from 10.48 to 9.93 percent. 800 telephone call centers are proliferating, adding jobs at a faster pace than any other major occupation. At least 3.5 million people and perhaps as many as 6 million work in call centers, which are increasingly concentrated in lower-wage cities, making this work force roughly as numerous as the nation's truck drivers, assembly line workers or public-school teachers, says Louis Uchitelle writing in The New York Times (page A1). The centers offer fresh opportunity and flexibility. They draw employees mainly from the 30 million women who have a high school degree and a year or two of college. Many are second earners in their families, helping to anchor their households in the middle class despite the middling pay. But the centers also exemplify a trend in today's service economy that has held down wages of many middle and lower-income workers. Unlike factories, the centers can be relocated easily to lower-wage cities or even overseas. All it takes is to ship the computers and communications gear somewhere else. So even as the economy boomed in the late 1990's, surveys show that pay scales held steady at $7 to $14 an hour at most of the nation's 60,000 or more call centers. And the people in the jobs can never feel secure. Most centers make a priority of holding down labor costs , and as these jobs multiply, a large mass of women has become more vulnerable to layoffs and to what I would call plant closings, Rose Batt, a labor economist at Cornell University says. In part because of the growth of call centers, total employment of women has resisted the recession, declining less since 2000 than for men, who were particularly hard hit by the slump in manufacturing. For generations, convicts have made license plates or gone out, sometimes in chains, to clear roads and clear ditches. But in recent years, struggling rural communities have relied more and more on inmates to do jobs that public employees once did: tending cemeteries, cleaning courthouse restrooms, moving furniture, renovating municipal buildings, and even running errands for the police. The use of prisoners for manual labor has increased around the country, particularly in the South and Southwest where it not only fills the desperate demand for inexpensive laborers, but also helps prisons relieve overcrowding and supplement their budgets. A Justice Department survey showed that 124,000 inmates in state prisons or 10.4 percent of the total state prison population, and 45,000 local inmates or about 7
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MARCH 26, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Regional and state unemployment rates generally were stable in February and remained higher than a year ago. Forty-four states and the District of Columbia recorded shifts of 0.3 percentage point or less from a month ago, while over the year only 11 states registered changes that small, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The national jobless rate was essentially unchanged in February at 5.5 percent. Nonfarm employment decreased in 32 states. (Employment and unemployment data for Michigan, and therefore the East North Central division and Midwest region, were not available at the time of release). As the agency moves ahead with improvements in the consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics officials are looking at ways to help data users compare the CPI with other inflation measures, says John Greenlees, BLS assistant commissioner for consumer prices, at the National Association for Business Economics' policy conference. Many of Greenlees' comments on the CPI pertained to recommendations made recently by a panel of prominent economists chaired by Charles Schultze, senior fellow emeritus of the Brookings Institution. The Schultze panel proposed that BLS publish more experimental inflation measures, and agreed with recent improvements in the widely used inflation index. With the release of July figures in August, the bureau plans to publish a new superlative CPI, designed to come closer to a cost-of-living measure than the current index. Greenlees said the superlative measure will give data users a new option but will not replace either of the official CPIs published monthly. Research conducted by the bureau indicates that the superlative CPI will increase at an annual rate of 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point less than the CPI-U (Daily Labor Report, page C-1). Strikes and lockouts involving 1,000 or more workers last year fell to 29 from 39 in 2000, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of workers involved fell to 99,000 from 394,000 (The Wall Street Journal's Work Week feature, page A1). Government statistics appear to have seriously underestimated job losses last year in California and the nation, a sign that the recession was worse than previously thought, according to confidential data obtained by The San Francisco Chronicle (Sam Zuckerman, http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2002/03/26/MN225965.DTL) . In California, new data show that the state had approximately 180,000 fewer jobs in September than officially reported by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics and the state Employment Development Department. The new statistics, data from unemployment insurance tax filings, normally are made public only once a year. Experts say the apparent miscount suggests that the pain caused by the recession was significantly more severe than government data showed. It also raises the question of whether official employment statistics gave an accurate portrait of the economy and whether that data can be relied on by planners. If the gap between official statistics and new data were the same percentage nationwide, the agency's calculation of 132.5 million jobs would have been overstated by roughly 1.6 million in September. Bureau officials said they had begun a review to find out why the new data showed so many fewer jobs than official employment statistics. We do see a bigger difference than we are comfortable with, said Pat Getz, the bureau's division chief for current employment statistics. We are looking at where the discrepancy is by industry and state. Sales of existing homes fell slightly in February but still posted the second-best annual rate ever, showing that the housing sector remains on firm footing, the National Association of Realtors said. Sales of previously owned homes, the largest category of home sales, declined 2.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.88 million. The January sales rate was revised upward to a record 6.05 million (Reuters, The New York Times, page C10; Associated Press, http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/085/business/Home_sales_dip_in_February+.s html; The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Consumer confidence surged in March to its highest level in 7 months, bolstered by growing optimism about the economy and the job market. The New York-based Conference Board said today that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 110.2 this month, from a revised 95.0 in February. Analysts were expecting a reading of 98. The index, based on a monthly survey of some 5,000 U.S. households, is closely watched because consumer confidence drives consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the nation's economic activity (Hope Yen, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/V4807.htm). Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket goods rose 1.5 percent in February, the third straight monthly increase, lifted by stronger demand for
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MARCH 25, 2002: Despite the holiday-shortened week, look for a bevy of economic data, most of which are expected to underscore the strengthening economy, says the Los Angeles Times in an Internet article that combines reports from Reuters, Bloomberg News, and the Associated Press (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-21526mar25.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines %2Dbusiness. Economists expect a decrease in last month's sales of existing homes, though new-home sales are likely to have risen in February, when compared with January results. One of the week's most closely watched set of numbers will be reported Tuesday with the release of February orders for costly durable goods, which includes such items as washing machines and computers. Earlier this month, data showed U.S. businesses were building up inventories, anticipating an increase in demand from consumers and businesses amid the economic upturn. Now, investors are looking for evidence that anticipated growth in demand is showing up in orders. A final revision to fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data is expected Thursday. Economists expect GDP to show a gain of 1.4 percent -- same as the previous revision. Consumer spending, which makes up approximately two-thirds of the economic activity in the nation, remained strong throughout the downturn and traders are watching for indications that it has continued to stay resilient. The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence, due Tuesday, is expected to show a gain to 98.8 in March from 94.1 in February. On Thursday, University of Michigan's final March consumer sentiment report will be released. The forecast calls for a reading of 95.1, up from 90.7 in February. The New York and Chicago regional manufacturing surveys are due Thursday. Taking into account savings, severance benefits, and financial adjustments they say they've made, most job hunters can afford a job search lasting close to half a year, according to a poll of 725 outplaced workers by career-services firm Lee Hecht Harrison (LHH), in Woodcliff Lake, N.J. Some 56 percent of respondents believed severance alone would cover them for the duration of their search. Those polled reported a median severance of 15 to 16 weeks (http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0325/p16s05-wmgn.html). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment: February 2002 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MARCH 22, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The number of days idle and the percent of estimated working time lost because of strikes and lockouts were at historic lows in 2001, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Twenty-nine major work stoppages began during the year, idling 99,000 workers and resulting in 1.2 million workdays of idleness (less than 1 out of 10,000 available workdays). Comparable figures for 2000 were 39 stoppages, 394,000 workers idled, and 20.4 million days of idleness. The major work stoppage series, which dates back to 1947, covers strikes and lockouts involving 1,000 workers or more and lasting at least one shift. More than four out of 10 employees that use respirators to protect their workers rely on little or no training to ensure their proper use or to detail the protective limitations of the technology, according to the results of the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey released March 20. BLS said the survey of respirator uses over a 12-month period found that respirator equipment is being used by workers in about 10 percent of the nation's private worksites. The survey of business establishments was conducted in late 2001. In nearly half of the 619,400 business establishments where respirators were being used, the respirators were being used voluntarily -- workers were protecting themselves from allergies or other irritants or were providing themselves a measure of protection beyond that of federal health standards -- rather than in response to regulatory requirements, the survey said (Daily Labor Report, March 21, page D-1). Fewer workers applied for state unemployment benefits last week, the government said in a report showing a labor market on the mend as the economy recovers. The Employment and Training Administration of the Labor Department said the number of initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 371,000 for the week ended March 16, exceeding Wall Street's expectations that first-time claims would slip down to 374,000 The decrease echoes economists predictions that the U.S. economy is heading for a rebound. Payrolls outside of agriculture increased by 66,000 in February, the first gain since last July, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Daily Labor Report, page D-25; Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-03-21-jobless.htm). Nearly all major categories posted moderate price increases last month, resulting in a 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted rise in the consumer price index for all urban consumers in February, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most private forecasters expect inflation to pick up somewhat once the U.S. economy's growth rate accelerates. Energy prices helped to hold down the overall CPI-U last month, but analysts point out that a recent jump in gasoline prices will boost the index for March (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Consumer prices rose in February for a second consecutive month and fewer workers sought unemployment benefits according to one measure, offering additional evidence that the economy is growing and that higher interest rates are possible. The Consumer Price Index, the most widely watched gauge of inflation, rose 0.1 percent in February, reflecting higher prices for housing, food and clothing, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported (The New York Times, page C8). The inflation-adjusted earnings of most U.S. workers declined 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, dropped 0.2 percent. Average weekly earnings for February was $277.77, down from $278.01 in January, but still above the February 2001 level of $271.65 (Daily Labor Report, page D-20). Consumer prices unexpectedly jumped in February, rattling investors on guard for a pre-emptive Federal Reserve strike against inflation. Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in February from January, the Labor Department said, but excluding energy and food, so-called core prices rose a higher-than-expected 0.3 percent. Prices overall were up 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the lowest 12-month increase in almost 40 years, but core prices were up 2.6 percent. Core prices generally carry more weight because energy and food prices are notoriously volatile, and thus mask perhaps a different underlying trend (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). One in seven U.S. hospitals faces severe shortages of registered nurses, according to a graph in Business Week (March 25, page 10). The national average percent of hospital nursing jobs available is 13 percent, with California having 20 percent of its hospital nursing jobs unfilled, Florida 18 percent, New York 9 percent, Massachusetts 7 percent and Minnesota 5 percent. Data is from the American Hospital Association. The remarkable performance of the
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MARCH 21, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in February, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 177.8 (1982-84=100), the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. For the 12-month period ended in February, the CPI-U increased 1.1 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.3 percent in February, prior to seasonal adjustment. The February level of 173.7 was 0.8 percent higher than the index in February 2001. Real average weekly earnings decreased by 0.1 percent from January to February after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This decline was due to a 0.2 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which was partially offset by a 0.1 percent increase in average hourly earnings. Average weekly hours were unchanged. Higher prices for clothing, medical care and airline fares contributed to a mild 0.2 percent rise in consumer inflation in February. The advance in the Consumer Price Index, a closely watched gauge of inflation, matched January's increase, the Labor Department reports. Excluding energy and food prices, the core rate of inflation rose 0.3 percent in February, following a 0.2 percent rise. Even with the slight pickup in consumer inflation, falling prices for new cars and trucks, computers and home furnishings provided shoppers with some bargains (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/316419p-2706517c.html). A key gauge of U.S. economic activity remained flat in February following four straight months of gains, suggesting a rocky economic recovery in the months ahead, the New York-based Conference Board said as it reported that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators remained steady at 112.4 last month, following a revised 0.8 percent increase in January. Analysts had forecast a 0.1 percent gain. The U.S. economy has quickly turned from recession and is now firmly in recovery, said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. But the road ahead is far from smooth, with sluggish profits and weak export demand restraining growth (Hope Yen, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/business/V6476.htm). Housing starts rose in February to the highest level in more than 3 years, government figures showed today, suggesting that the construction of new homes will underpin a rebounding recovery. At an annual pace, builders began work on 1.769 million homes last month, up 2.8 percent from a 1.721 million rate in January, the Commerce Department said. That is the most homes started since December 1998 and reflects the fastest pace of single-family housing construction in more than 23 years (Bloomberg News, The New York Times, page C7). Boosted by a sharp 7.4 percent gain in single-family homes, housing starts in February zoomed to their fastest pace in more than 3 years, the government said Wednesday, an encouraging sign for the emerging U.S. economic recovery (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). In a recently released study of the 10 industries that employed the most women from 1995 to 2000, the General Accounting Office found that the gap between the salaries of men and women had widened for managers in seven of those sectors. The largest widening was in entertainment and recreational services, where female managers were earning just 62 cents for every dollar made by a male manager in 2000, down from 83 cents in 1995. Only three industries showed improvement for women -- albeit slight. The biggest gain was in educational services, where the figures rose to 91 cents on the dollar, from 86 cents. The GAO report is supported by other studies, including one conducted by the Women's Research and Education Institute in Washington showing that overall managerial salaries for women slipped to 71.3 cents in 2000 from 78 cents in 1995. Variations in lifestyle choices might justify the existence of a wage gap. So, too, might the varying levels of experience and managerial responsibility that the GAO study couldn't measure. What these factors don't explain, however, is why the gap has grown (Jeffrey L. Seglin, who teachers at Emerson College in Boston and is the author of The Good, the Bad, and Your Business (John Wiley Sons), in The New York Times, March 17, Money Business, page 4). Louis Uchitelle calls inflation the wild card of the recovery in his column in The New York Times, March 17, Money Business, page 4, writing under the heading Economic View. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price index fell precipitously to an annual rate of 1.1 percent in January from 3.2 last June. Rarely has inflation fallen that much, so quickly. Wages went in the opposite direction. Despite the recession, companies kept giving raises, he contends. There was still enough pressure
BLS Daily Report
WEDNESDAY, March 20 RELEASED TODAY: Respirators had been used by employees in about 10 percent of the private industry workplaces surveyed in late 2001. In nearly half of these 619,400 establishments where respirators were used, they were used by employees on a voluntary basis only, and, in about 12 percent, they were used only when required because of emergencies. These data are from a special survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The U.S. trade deficit expanded sharply in January, suggesting the economy hasn't strengthened quite as much as expected in the first quarter. The seasonally adjusted trade deficit for January swelled 15.4% to $28.5 billion from a revised $24.7 billion in December, the Commerce Department said. The trade gap in December, however, was surprisingly narrow, because imports had sharply contracted, an aberration that reversed itself in January ( The Wall Street Journal, page A2; and The New York Times, page C3). Despite signs of an economic rebound, the Labor Department reports that local job markets remain soft. Roughly 80% of 331 metropolitan areas posted January jobless rates higher than they were during the same period a year earlier. Among the 50 largest metro areas in the nation, Portland, Ore., saw the highest rate at 8.6%, while Orange County, Calif., had the lowest at 3.8%. San Jose, Calif., the center of tech-heavy Silicon Valley, turned in the sharpest year-over-year gain with unemployment soaring to 7.5% from 1.7% ( Robert Gavin, The Wall Street Journal, page B14). The Federal Reserve signaled to investors, businesses and consumers today that they should prepare for higher interest rates this year if the economy continues its speedy recovery. At a meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank voted to hold rates steady, as it did at its meeting in January. But the Fed laid the groundwork to begin reversing some of the 11 rate cuts it carried out last year as the economy sank into recession ( The New York Times, page C1). Federal Reserve officials left their interest rate target unchanged at a meeting yesterday and signaled that they may be in no rush to raise rates as long as the economic outlook remains uncertain. The central bank's top policymaking group, the Federal Open Market Committee, said the economy is expanding at a significant pace but then noted that the rate of growth later this year is still uncertain. ( The Washington Post, page E1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Consumer Price Index--February 2002; and Real Earnings--February 2002 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MARCH 18, 2002: Producer prices increased 0.2 percent in February, following a 0.1 percent increase in January, according to figures released March 15 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase in February's finished goods was led by increases in energy and food prices, which edged up 0.4 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively. According to the latest BLS figures, the so-called core rate of wholesale inflation -- finished goods minus food and energy -- remained unchanged in February, following a 0.1 percent decline in January. In February, producer prices were down 2.6 percent over the past year, making it the largest year-on-year decline since 1950. The core rate was up 0.5 percent during the past year, BLS says. Not only is the modest increase in producer prices nothing to worry about, it's a small reflection that producers are beginning to feel more secure about the economic outlook, says National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors President Ron Schreibman (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). All the signals for the U.S. economy are flashing go these days, including three reports out yesterday that showed a solid rise in industrial production, very low inflation, and the strongest reading for consumer sentiment in more than a year. These and other recent numbers have been so strong that they have erased doubts among economists that economic growth is rebounding from last year's recession. The Labor Department said producer prices for finished goods rose 0.2 percent last month, primarily because of a 1 percent rise in food prices. Even with last month's increase in the price index, which tracks changes in the prices producers charge when they first sell a completed item, was still 2.6 percent lower than it was in February 2001. And the core portion of the PPI, which includes volatile food and energy prices, was flat last month and up only 0.5 percent over the past 12 months (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, page E1). Consumer confidence rose in March to its highest level in 15 months and factories stepped up production in February, two reports released today showed, bolstering views of an accelerating economy. The 0.4 percent increase in production at factories, mines, and utilities last month came after a 0.2 percent gain in January and was the largest since June 2000, Federal Reserve figures showed. It was the first back-to-back increase since August and September of 2000. Analysts had expected a 0.2 percent rise. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index jumped to 95 this month, the highest since December 2000, from 90.7 in February. We made the turn, said Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at National Trust in Chicago. A third report from the Labor Department showed that the Producer Price Index rose 0.2 percent in February, meeting expectations, after a 0.1 percent January gain. Excluding food and energy, the index was unchanged (Bloomberg News, The New York Times, March 16, page B3). Industrial production at the nation's factories, mines, and utilities rose 0.4 percent in February, the strongest gain since the summer of 2000 right before the industrial slump began. The Labor Department reported Friday that wholesale prices rose a modest 0.2 percent in February, while the core rate of inflation which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was flat (USA Today, page B1). The Wall Street Journal's feature Tracking the Economy (page C21) predicts that the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers for February, due out Thursday, will be 0.2 percent over the January figure, according to Consensus Forecast. The actual increase from December 2001 to January 2002 was also 0.2 percent. The CPI-U excluding Food and Energy for February is predicted to be 0.2 percent also, as it was the previous month. With its biggest gain in nearly 2 years, February's industrial production data provide fresh evidence an economic recovery is gaining ground. Consumers are also growing optimistic as the University of Michigan's preliminary March consumer sentiment index rose to a higher-than-expected 95 from 90.7 last month. Meanwhile, inflation remains tame. The Labor Department reported that the producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level, rose 0.2 percent in February, following a 0.1 percent increase in January and a 0.6 percent decline in December (The Wall Street Journal, page A2. The Journal's page 1 graph is entitled Few Inflation Worries and shows the PPI excluding food and energy and the Producer Price Index, 1997 through 2002). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MARCH 19, 2002: A recent Bureau of Labor Statistics survey gives national earnings figures for four levels of laundry-machine operators, six levels of butchers, and three of garbage collectors. Differentiating among seven levels of gardeners, BLS economist William Wiatrowski says they could include yard maintenance worker (first level), chemical applicator (third level) and cemetery-grounds director (sixth level). He concedes that such detailed classifications can be confusing and says BLS is working to improve future surveys. I don't know who uses this, sniffs Robert Fulton, a human-resources consultant in Chicago. Most companies, if they have a bus driver, they have a bus driver (Work Week feature of The Wall Street Journal, page A1). Hints of turnaround are seen in staffing services, says Work Week feature of The Wall Street Journal (page A1). Temp agencies were the first to be squeezed when the economy slowed and demand fell for new hires. Now their business is picking up again, adding to signs that the economy may be on the rebound. We're seeing a hint of a little more activity, says Manpower, Inc.'s Jeff Joerres, adding that staffing firms are a leading indicator in and out of recessions. U.S. manufacturers expect to have to resort to more cost-cutting to deal with a slow economic recovery from recession, according to a survey by the National Association of Manufacturers. Seventy percent of the more than 300 companies polled said they plan to preserve profits by aggressively cutting costs. The manufacturers expect the U.S. economy to grow a modest 2 to 3 percent this year, and four out of ten predict continued recession within their own industry sectors, according to the NAM. Results of the annual survey reflected only slightly more upbeat sentiments than a year ago when the nation's economy was mired in recession. In the 2001 poll, the consensus opinion of the manufacturing executives was that the economy would grow 2 percent or less for the year. Jerry Jasinowski, president of the manufacturing association, saw results as confirming that manufacturing's emergence from prolonged recession will be slower than the rest of the economy (Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/311025p-2681201c.html; Daily Labor Report, page A-9). America's trade deficit surged to $28.5 billion in January as the nation's foreign oil bill surged and U.S. exports fell to the lowest level in more than 3 years, the Commerce Department reported today (Martin Crutsinger, Associated Press, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-03-19-trade.htm). As the country bounces back from a recession, the Federal Reserve's next mission will be to prepare Americans enjoying the lowest interest rates seen in a generation for the possibility that rates will go higher this year, economists say. The Fed's 11 interest rate cuts last year may have rescued the economy from the downturn that began in last March and will allow healthy economic growth to return in the months ahead, economists predict (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/V2311.htm). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Respirator Use and Practices application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS Daily Report, Thursday, March 14, 2002 RELEASED TODAY: The U.S. Import Price Index decreased 0.1 percent in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The decline followed a 0.4 percent increase in January and was attributable to a decline in nonpetroleum prices. The Export Price Index was down 0.2 percent in February, the fifth consecutive decrease for this index. The deficit in the nation's broadest measure of trade narrowed slightly to $417.4 billion last year, although it was the second highest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department said today. Last year's current account trade deficit, measuring the flow of not just goods and services but also investment across the U.S. border, was down by 6.1 percent from the all-time high of $444.7 billion set in 2000. It marked the first time that the current account had shown an improvement since a 7 percent decline to $109.9 billion in 1995. In another report, the Commerce Department said that businesses rebuilt inventories by 0.2 percent in January, the first increase in inventories in a year and another encouraging sign that the country's first recession in a decade has come to an end. Analysts see the rebuilding of inventories as a crucial development in lifting the country out of recessions. In a third report, the Labor Department said that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 3,000 last week to 377,000. (Martin Crutsinger, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/303137p-2642587c.html). New claims for state unemployment insurance dropped by 15,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 376,000, the Labor Department said today. The decline for the work week ending February 2 followed a revised 31,000 jump in claims the week before. Jobless claims slowly have been declining since peaking October 20 at 507,000. Last week's level was the lowest since January 19. The more stable 4-week moving average of new claims, which smoothes out week-to-week fluctuations, fell last week to 380,500, the lowest level since August 18. There have been growing signs that the nation's first recession in a decade is ending, and the Federal Reserve resisted cutting interest rates last week after doing so 11 times in 2001. But the job market will be the slowest to recover, and economists think the unemployment rate will continue to rise into the summer to as high as 6.5 percent. That's because the level of job growth in the early stages of the recovery probably will not be enough to accommodate new workers as they enter the job market (Leigh Strope, Associated Press). An important gauge of U.S. economic activity rose in January for the fourth consecutive month, suggesting the nation's economic turnaround is on solid footing and could be stronger than expected. The New York-based Conference Board said today that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.6 percent in January to 112.2 following a revised 1.3 rise in December. The reading met analysts' expectations. Given this string of strong increases, the cumulative rise in the index over the past 6 months...suggests gathering economic momentum, said the board's economist, Ken Goldstein. The strong signal from the indicators is that the recession is ending and that the recovery could be more vigorous than earlier anticipated (Lisi de Bourbon, Associated Press). A measure of U.S. manufacturing activity rose for the first time in a year and a half in February, as a rise in orders and increased production helped lift the bruised sector out of its slump. The Tempe, Ariz.-based Institute for Supply Management, formerly known as the National Association of Purchasing Management, said its index of business activity rose to 54.7 in February from 49.9 in January. Analysts had been expecting a reading above 50 for the first time since July 2000. An index above 50 signifies expansion, while a figure below 50 shows contraction (Lisi de Bourbon, Associated Press). U.S. business inventories rose for the first time in a year in January, and sales rose too, the government said today. Total business sales rose 1.1 percent on the month after posting an unchanged outcome in December. Sales at manufacturers rose 2.0 percent (Reuters, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A26041-2002Mar14.html). The nation's arbiter of recessions said that the economy may be turning the corner, adding official weight to recent upbeat economic data and the growing consensus among economists that a recovery is underway. The nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research stopped short of declaring the recession over, but the group, which pinpoints the peaks and valleys of the U.S. business cycle, cited the improving employment picture as evidence that the downturn may be ending. The Labor Department reported last week that the nation added 66,000 jobs in February, the first employment gain in 7 months. Also noting improvements in manufacturing, sales,
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MARCH 12, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: From 1999 to 2000, multifactor productivity rose 1.9 percent in the private business sector and 1.8 percent in the private nonfarm business sector, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Multifactor productivity increased for the ninth consecutive year in both the private business and private nonfarm business sectors. The 1999-2000 rates of increase were the highest since 1992. Amid signs of a strengthening job market, some Americans laid off as a result of the September 11 terrorist attacks have found work again, says Kemba J. Dunham in The Wall Street Journal (page B10). It is difficult to track precisely how many people lost their jobs as a result of September 11. Lewis Siegel, a U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics analyst, says about 126,000 Americans were laid off between September 15 and January 12 in cuts directly or indirectly tied to the attacks. The figure solely covers layoffs lasting more than 30 days and involving more than 50 people at the same company. Equally elusive is the number of September 11 layoff victims who found new jobs. But a spokesman for New York City's Human Resources Administration says his agency held four Twin Towers Job Expos in October through January. Out of the 27,000 people who attended the job fairs (a figure that includes serial attendees) at least 1,300 subsequently found jobs. Some businesses damaged by the September 11 attacks have begun to rehire their laid-off staffers. In 2000, 55 percent of mothers with children under 1 year old were working or looking for work, according to the U.S. Census Bureau (USA Today, page 1B; http://www.usatoday.com/money/covers/2002-03-12-stay-home-moms.htm). That's down from 1998, when the labor force participation rate was almost 60 percent, and the first decrease since at least 1976. The percentage of women who worked during their first pregnancy also has shown its first leveling off since 1961. And the number of working, married women with children under 3 also has stalled, going from an annual average of 4 million in 1999 to 39 million in 2000, according to the Department of Labor. Top ranking U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday expressed hope the economy is in the midst of rebounding from the shallow recession it entered last year. I am happy to say that the United States is now coming out of the recent slowdown. The fourth quarter of last year showed positive real (gross domestic product) and recent data on production and employment indicate that the U.S. economy has turned the corner, said John Taylor, Treasury's Under Secretary for International Affairs. Taylor was speaking at the Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce in Fortaleza, Brazil. Those sentiments were echoed by Federal Reserve Governor Mark Olson during a speech to a thrift trade group here (http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2843943.htm). Friday's positive job numbers didn't seem to help those unemployed the longest. While the number of unemployed for 14 weeks or less fell 4 percent to 5.3 million, those unemployed 15 or more weeks saw their numbers grow 0.6 percent to 2.6 million. They now make up about a third of the unemployed compared with about 25 percent a year ago. Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp., Cleveland, speculates that many companies wait as long as possible to lay off essential personnel, who are then the first hired back when the outlook improves (The Wall Street Journal's Work Week feature, page A1). Of 150 executives at big companies, 84 say they expect to increase staffing this year, says a survey by the consulting firm Accenture Ltd. But of these 84, about two-thirds said they expect to hire fewer than 1,000 workers (The Wall Street Journal's Work Week feature, page A1). Places to move? Hawaii and South Dakota reported the biggest unemployment-rate drops in January from December, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics (The Wall Street Journal's Work Week feature, page A1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: January 2002 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MARCH 11, 2002: Providing the strongest evidence so far that the U.S. economy is pulling out of recession, U.S. employers added 66,000 workers to nonfarm payrolls in February, on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was the first job growth since last July. The civilian unemployment rate edged down 0.1 percentage point to 5.5 percent in February, leaving it 0.3 percentage point below what could turn out to be the recession's peak level of 5.8 percent posted last December. This economy is much more resilient than most people thought it was, says Bank One Chief Economist Diane Swonk (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The nation's job market improved last month as companies added more workers than they cut for the first time in 7 months, nudging the jobless rate down and providing another sign that the U.S. economy is rapidly turning around. The nation's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 5.5 percent, down only slightly from January's 5.6 percent but more noticeably below the recent peak of 5.8 percent reached in December, the Labor Department reported yesterday. Most analysts had thought the jobless rate might go up rather than down because a majority of employers are likely to be cautious in rehiring workers laid off during last year's recession. But last month the number of workers on private and government payrolls rose by 66,000, the first increase in several months and the largest gain since the recession began a year ago. The rising number of jobs in construction, retail trade, services and government more than offset another 50,000-job drop in factory payrolls (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, March 9, page E1). Companies added workers to their payrolls in February for the first time in 9 months, the government said yesterday, the strongest evidence yet that the economy is emerging from the recession. With consumer spending continuing to increase and service companies hiring workers, the economy created 66,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.5 percent from 5.6 percent in January, according to the Labor Department's seasonally adjusted numbers. Airlines added employees in February for the first time since May, and hospitals and medical offices continued to show strong growth. Temporary-help agencies, often a leading indicator of the economy's health, ended a 16-month streak of cutting employment. While manufacturing, the sector hardest hit by the downturn, continued to pare jobs, the loss was the smallest since late 2000 (David Leonhardt, The New York Times, March 9, page B1). The job market's 7-month collapse appears to be over, adding to growing optimism about an economic recovery. In recent weeks, the consensus among economists has been that unemployment would continue to rise, even as economic growth returns. But on Friday, the Labor Department threw a curve ball: Employers added 66,000 more jobs in February than they cut, the first gain since July and the most sizable gain since February 2001 (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). U.S. wholesalers pared back inventories for the 8th consecutive month in January, while sales posted their largest rise since June 2000, the government said Monday in a report showing further signs an economic recovery may be underway. The Commerce Department said stocks of unsold goods on wholesalers' shelves fell 0.2 percent in January, to $287.7 billion after falling a revised 0.5 percent in December. The dip in Inventory levels was slightly smaller than the 0.4 percent drop expected by analysts (Reuters, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A7597-2002Mar11.html). The U.S. economy is breaking out of recession with unexpected speed and may grow at a 3.7 percent rate in the second half of this year, according to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey. The consensus forecast calls for gross domestic product to increase in the first quarter of this year at a 2.6 percent annual rate, compared with 1.6 percent in last month's forecast. The most optimistic economists said first-quarter growth would exceed 4 percent, the fastest pace in almost 2 years. The economy grew at a 1.4 percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2001 (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-17929mar11.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines %2Dbusiness). In another sign that the economic slump may be easing, announced job cuts hit their lowest level in 8 months, according to the Chicago-based outplacement firm Challenger, Gray Christmas, which has tracked job cuts since 1993. Still, the six-figure job cuts underscore what many economists have been warning: Unemployment will get worse before it gets better. The rate, currently at 5.6 percent, is expected to top out at 6 or 6.5 percent by the middle of the year. Telecommunications was the industry hardest hit in February, with nearly 36,000 planned cuts (http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0311/p16s01-wmgn.html).
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: In January, most regional and state unemployment rates either declined or were little changed over the month, but were higher than a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The national jobless rate decreased to 5.6 percent in January. Nonfarm employment increased in 30 states. (Employment and unemployment data for Michigan, and therefore the East North Central division and the Midwest region, were not available at the time of release). Several state legislatures approved major changes in workers' compensation laws during 2001, including coverage of security personnel in the recent Winter Olympic games, according to an article in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' January Monthly Labor Review. BLS economist Glenn Whittington describes state coverage changes, as well as increases in some benefits levels. The article provides a state-by-state summary of last year's significant changes in workers' compensation laws (Daily Labor Report, page A-2; article in E-1). William C. Barron, acting director of the U.S. Census Bureau, will retire this summer after 34 years as a federal employee to accept a one-year appointment as a professor at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. Most of his career was spent at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and for 15 years Barron was deputy commissioner of labor statistics. In 1998, Barron, 56, left BLS to become deputy undersecretary of commerce to oversee planning and budgeting for the 2000 Census. He became deputy director of the Census Bureau in May 1999 and then acting director when Kenneth Prewitt resigned in January 2001. (The Washington Post, page A17). Orders to U.S. factories rose by 1.6 percent in January, lifted by stronger demand for cars, computers and machinery, providing new evidence that the battered manufacturing sector is turning a corner. The advance followed a 0.7 percent rise in December and was the third increase in the last 4 months, the Commerce Department reported today. A host of recent economic reports has indicted the recession, which began in March 2001, has probably ended and will be recorded as one of the mildest in U.S. history (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-020406econ.story). If you were one of the 7.9 million Americans looking for work in January, there's probably very little doubt in your mind that the economy was -- or at least had been -- in a recession. But for the 141.4 million who never lost their jobs, this recession may have come and gone so quickly that they didn't even notice (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/286012p-2561158c.html). If this recession has now ended -- as most economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan apparently think -- then there will be a supreme irony in its passing. What has transfixed Americans these past few years has been the so-called New Economy, with its dazzling technologies, its visions of instant riches, and its astronomical stock market valuations, writes Robert J. Samuelson in The Washington Post (page A19). But spending on housing, automobiles, furniture, toys, fast food, physicians and dentists -- almost every thing that is routine and unrevolutionary -- has rescued the economy from the collapsed investment in telecom networks and dot-com and from the depressing effects of fallen stock prices. Samuelson quotes Susan Sterne of Economic Analysis Associates as saying this consumer recession was almost entirely a travel recession -- terrorism's aftershock. Luggage sales declined 2.1 percent; hotel and motel spending was down 12.7 percent. Greenspan said he expected any recovery to be subdued. New York City lost far more jobs last year than anyone (except maybe the unemployed) realized: almost 36,000 more than the state's original estimate of 96,500, according to a new tally released yesterday by the State Department of Labor. The new data, which have been revised to reflect information from corporate unemployment tax filings, show that the city lost 132,400 jobs last year, up by one-third from the Labor Department's original estimate. The drop is the steepest since 1991, which was the worse year of the recession that lasted from 1989 through 1992. Most of the loss reflects the economic aftershocks of the attack on the World Trade Center. But the new data also show that the national recession hit New York's services sector slightly earlier, and a lot harder, than economists realized. But there were some bright spots in the data. For one thing, the number of jobs on Wall Street last year was revised upward by 10,000, to 175,500 (The New York Times, page A21). With corporate profits and many stock prices down, pay for the chief executives of large companies fell slightly last year, according to a survey by Pearl Meyer Partners, an
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MARCH 7, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported revised fourth-quarter seasonally-adjusted annual rates of productivity change -- as measured by output per hour of all persons -- and revised annual changes for the full year 2001. Percent changes in business and nonfarm business productivity were: Business sector, 5.1 for the fourth quarter; 1.9 annual average, 2000-2001; nonfarm business sector, 5.2 for the fourth quarter, 1.9 annual average, 2000-2001. In both sectors, fourth-quarter productivity was higher than originally reported due to upward revisions to the output measures. In the manufacturing sector, increases in productivity were: Manufacturing sector, 4.1 percent for the fourth quarter, 1.1 annual average 2000-2001; Durable goods manufacturing sector, 2.7 percent fourth quarter, 0.5 annual average 2000-2001; nondurable goods manufacturing, 5.2 fourth quarter, 1.6 annual average 2000-2001. The productivity of U.S. workers rocketed past expectations in the final 3 months of last year to post the biggest increase since the second quarter of 2000, the government said today. The Labor Department said productivity, or worker output of goods and services per hour outside the farm sector, rose at a 5.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, revised upward from an initial estimate of 3.5 percent. The increase surpassed analysts' expectations for a 4.5 percent rise (Reuters, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A53802-2002Mar7.html). Unemployment rates decreased in 26 states in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. North Dakota reported the lowest unemployment rate for the ninth consecutive month, 2.8 percent. Oregon and Washington reported the highest rates -- 8.0 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively. No state's jobless rate has been as high as 8.0 percent since July 1997, BLS says (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The number of American workers lining up for state unemployment benefits fell last week, the government said today, in a report providing yet more evidence the U.S. economy is on a firmer footing. In addition, the 4-week moving average, seen as a more reliable labor market gauge because it smoothes out weekly fluctuations, dropped to pre-Sept. 11 levels. Layoffs are heading back down...which makes sense as the economy is turning, said Jim Glassman, senior economist at J.P. Morgan. The airline and hotel industries are getting back on their feet (http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2811342.htm). New claims for unemployment insurance for the work week ending March 2 fell by a seasonally adjusted 5,000 to 376,000, the Labor Department reports. Claims peaked last year on September 9 at 535,000, and have remained below 400,000 so far this year. In a separate report today, the Labor Department said worker productivity grew at an even faster pace in the fourth quarter of last year than previously indicated. Productivity, which is the amount of output per hour of work increased at an annual rate of 5.2 percent in the October-December quarter. That compares with the 3.5 percent previously reported for the quarter. For the entire year, productivity increased just 1.9 percent compared with 3.3 percent in all of 2000 (Leigh Strope, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/288533p-2572704c.html). Economic activity remains mixed throughout the country, but a majority of the Federal Reserve's 12 district banks said there are signs that conditions have been improving, the central bank reports. Although the labor markets have continued to soften in most districts, the tone of the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report suggests that activity in the retail, manufacturing and banking sectors was bottoming out. Some of the most encouraging signs have come from retailers in the Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Kansas City districts, who reported that sales were higher in early 2002 than they were a year ago (Daily Labor Report, page D-9; The Washington Post, page E2; The New York Times, page C1; The Wall Street Journal, page A2; USA Today, page 3B; Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-03-06-beige-book.htm). As the recovery builds, the less educated go to the end of the employment line, says Alan B. Krueger, Bendheim Professor of Economics and Public Affairs, Princeton University, and editor of The Journal of Economic Perspectives in The New York Times (page C2). He points out that when Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who will appear before the Senate Banking Committee today, commented on the possibility of the end of the recession, he did not mention that the lingering effects of high unemployment early in a recovery tend to be concentrated among the unskilled and minorities. This is true even though recessions are becoming more egalitarian. An accompanying graph shows that in the early part of the latest recession, job prospects deteriorated more for
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MARCH 8, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Nonfarm payroll employment was up by 66,000 in February, following several months of large job losses. February gains in several industries, however, can be attributed to special factors. Manufacturing employment continued to decline, although at a slower pace. The rapid turnaround in the U.S. economy reached the nation's job market last month as payroll employment rose for the first time in seven months, the jobless rate ticked down and the number of industries adding workers continued to rise, the Labor Department reported today. After digging into the details of today's report, a number of analysts said the unemployment rate might well increase again somewhat in coming months as employers concentrate on using their current employees more intensively in order to hold down costs and boost profits. Meanwhile, the increase in average hourly earnings of workers has slowed, the department said. Last month hourly earnings rose two cents to $14.63. That was 3.7 percent higher than the figure a year ago and the smallest increase for a 12-month period since that ending in September 2000. (http://www.washingtonpost.com) The nation's unemployment rate unexpectedly slipped to 5.5 percent in February as businesses, after slashing payrolls for six straight months, added 66,000 new workers. It was the strongest signal yet that the country's first recession in a decade is over. The Labor Department reported Friday that the jobless rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point in February to the lowest level since October. Before the report was released, private economists had been looking for the jobless rate to rise by 0.1 percentage point. The addition of 66,000 jobs during the month followed losses that had averaged 146,000 a month since the recession started in March 2001. It was the largest payroll increase since February 2001. In the jobs report, the largest increases last month occurred in retail, though Labor Department economists stressed caution in interpreting the numbers as a sign of strength in that industry. Retail businesses added 58,000 jobs in February. Large seasonal layoffs always occur in retailing in January and February following the holiday-season buildup. But holiday hiring last year was well below normal, so there were fewer workers to lay off. (http://www.boston.com) Economists had forecast an unemployment rate of 5.8 percent and little change in payrolls, according to Briefing.com. The report was especially surprising because the unemployment rate typically lags the rest of the economy, worsening even as the economy recovers because businesses usually delay hiring until they're convinced a rebound is underway. The unemployment rate also fell in January, but some economists attributed the drop to a shrinking labor force, since it seemed some workers had stopped looking for jobs, taking themselves out of the labor force. But the labor force grew by 821,000 in February, making the drop in the unemployment rate much more meaningful. What's more, the number of people who still want a job but haven't looked for one in four weeks - meaning they're no longer counted as part of the labor force - fell by 449,000. But some economists still were hesitant to read too much into the report, expressing skepticism that the labor market could possibly be bouncing back so soon. (http://cnn.com) Nonfarm business productivity increased at an annual rate of 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2001 because of upward revisions to the output measures, according to revised figures released March 7 by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase was much stronger than economists had expected in the midst of a recession. In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the revised fourth quarter productivity numbers were suspiciously too strong. The surprisingly strong fourth quarter gain was not only remarkably robust, but very unlikely, Greenspan said. But if you smooth out fluctuations in the data over the long term, you will see that fundamental changes have occurred that will allow productivity to continue to grow at a faster rate than it did in the 1980s and early 1990s, he said. (Daily Labor Report, page D-1) U.S. workers and companies are emerging from the economic contraction leaner and more productive than earlier thought, according to new data from the Labor Department. Nonfarm productivity--a measure of output per hour worked-- grew by an annualized 5.2 percent in the final three months of 2001, up from a previous estimate of 3.5 percent, the department said. For all of 2001, productivity grew by 1.9 percent, down from 3.3 percent in 2000 and 2.6 percent in the late 1990s, but still regarded by economists as
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MARCH 4, 2002: About 15 percent of the workforce worked at home during May 2001, as a part of their primary job responsibilities, a total of 19.8 million people, according to figures released March 1 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Two-thirds say they work at home at least once a week because it's simply the nature of the job or because they need to finish or catch up on work. Half of workers performing job duties from home were wage and salary workers who took work home from their job on an unpaid basis. Another 17 percent had previous/ arrangements with their employers to be paid for the work they did at home. The remaining 30 percent were self-employed (Daily Labor Report, page D-7). Employee benefits made up more than one-third of the total cost of company payrolls n 2000, with health insurance as the highest single benefit cost, according to a nationwide study released by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Employee benefits cost employers an additional 37.5 percent over wages in 2000, or an average of $16,617 per employer, according to the chamber's 2001 Employee Benefits Study. The chamber's study analyzed year 2000 benefit practices of surveyed employers. The 456 companies surveyed, which included both chamber members and nonmembers who voluntarily participated in the survey, collectively employed approximately 787,346 full-time equivalent workers. Benefits varied significantly among companies, according to the survey, with one in 10 paying more than 45.2 percent of its payroll for benefits and an equal number of companies paying less than 20.4 percent for benefits. The top 10 percent of companies had an average benefit cost of $21,774 per employee, while the lower 10 percent paid an average of $5,850 (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). The U.S. economy not only has begun to grow again after last year's slump, but it also is apparently doing so far more quickly than even the most optimistic forecasters were expecting just a few weeks ago, according to several economic reports released March 1. The strength of the latest figures, showing recent gains in manufacturing, consumer spending, and construction sent stocks soaring and surprised analysts -- who were already busy marking up their predictions for growth in the first 3 months of this year (John M. Berry, in The Washington Post, March 2, page 1). Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan says the recession is ending. So do most private economists. So how come it's so hard to find a job? Manpower, Inc., the big staffing company, reported last week that hiring is still tepid in the Washington area, despite signs that an economic recovery is afoot. the firm surveyed area companies about their hiring plans for the spring and 15 percent said they would recruit more workers during April, May, and June. Meanwhile, 14 expect to cut jobs in the same period (The rest either anticipated no changes or were not sure). On Wednesday the Labor Department is to release January employment data -- the number of jobs in each state in several categories, along with the unemployment rate and other data -- for each state and the District. A week later it is to release the same data for the Washington area which includes the District and suburban counties (The Washington Post, page E6). The corporate computer services market is now larger than the market for computer hardware and is expected to keep growing, according to the International Data Corp. A graph showing the amount of money spent on computer shows about $375 million in 2000, $400 million in 2001 and projected $425 million for 2002 (The New York Times, page C5). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MARCH 5, 2002: At least 125,000 American workers lost their jobs in mass layoffs that lasted 30 days or more because of the September 11 terrorist attacks, according to a recent Bureau of Labor Statistics report. It's pretty substantial, said Lewis Siegel, a senior economist with BLS and the manager of the agency's statistical program on mass layoffs, which asked employers participating in its regular layoff reports whether the attacks contributed to large-scale job losses. Employers in 33 states cited the attacks in 430 separate layoffs involving more than 50 workers each, the BLS said. The majority of the layoffs took place within weeks of September 11, with job losses tapering off since then. Transportation and hotel workers were most effected, the agency said. Siegel said that the terrorism impact has declined in recent weeks as the economy rebounded. About a third of the employers say they intended to rehire workers as conditions improve. Airline industry observers said it is already happening (The Washington Post, page E2; http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38326-2002Mar4.html). The Wall Street Journal's Work Week feature (page A1) carries this item: Happy New Year: Big employers laid of 263,800 workers in January, compared with 200,300 workers a year earlier, says the Labor Department, which tracks layoffs of 50 or more people. Layoff announcements at U.S. firms fell 40 percent in February from January, but the number of job cuts was still too high to signal a rebound in the job market, Challenger, Gray Christmas said Tuesday. The outplacement firm said job cuts announced in February totaled 128,115, down from 212,704 layoff announcements in January. But it said any number over 100,000 indicates employers are still focused on contraction (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-03-05-layoffs.htm). New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that 52 percent of the 19.8 million Americans who say they work at home at least once a week aren't being paid for it, says The Wall Street Journal feature Work Week (page A1). Of those, about 9 million say work at home is either necessary for catch-up or the nature of the job. The study, taken from surveys of 50,000 households in May 2001, found managerial, professional and sales workers made up the bulk of workers taking it home. Average job tenure fell to 7 years in 2001 from 8 years in 2000 and 9 in 1999, says a survey of about 2,900 of its laid-off clients by outplacement concern Drake Beam Morin (The Wall Street Journal, Work Week feature, page A1). A key gauge of activity in the massive U.S. services sector recovered in February, after an unexpected contraction in the previous month, according to a report released Tuesday. The Institute for Supply Management, an industry trade group, said its monthly non-manufacturing index rose sharply to 58.7 percent in February, its highest level since November 2000, from the previous month's unexpected fall to 49.6 percent. February's reading, which far exceeded market expectations, was well above the 50 percent level, indicating expansion in the sector which includes everything from transportation to legal and financial services. The market expected a rise in the index to 51.4 percent (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-03-05-service.htm). While many large companies have cut back on employee training as a result of the sagging economy, smaller firms continue to make the investment, according to a survey of workplace trends by American Society for Training and Development. It found that small and medium size firms expected to increase spending on employee training from 2000 to 2001. But many large companies with 2,000 or more employees that were hit hard by the economic downturn planned to trim their training budgets, at least through 2002. The survey report is based on the responses of 376 of 1,100 companies that responded to the ASTD questionnaire. The survey was conducted in two parts throughout 2001 (Daily Labor Report, page A-1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment: January 2002 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MARCH 1, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: In May 2001, 19.8 million persons usually did some work at home as part of their primary job, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These workers, who reported working at home at least once per week, accounted for 15 percent of total employment. These findings are from a special supplement to the May 2001 Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS is a monthly survey of households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for BLS. Data on work at home were last collected in the CPS in May 1997; however, due to changes in the questions asked, much of the data for May 2001 is not comparable with the May 1997 data. In 2001, half of those who usually worked at home were wage and salary workers who took work home from the job on an unpaid basis. Another 17 percent had a formal arrangement with their employer to be paid for the work they did at home. The remainder who worked at home -- 30 percent -- were self-employed. Mass layoff events totaled 2,146 in January resulting in job losses for 263,821 workers, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of initial claimants for unemployment insurance was the highest for the month of January since the series began in April 1995. The number of mass layoff events dropped from December, when 2,440 events resulted in 268,893 initial claimants, according to BLS (Daily Labor Report, page D-15). New claims for unemployment insurance benefits during the week ending February 23 totaled 378,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 361,000, according to figures from the Employment and Training Administration (Daily Labor Report, page D-12). The help-wanted advertising index was unchanged in January, standing at the December index level of 47, the Conference Board says. The index was 77 a year ago. Help-wanted advertising increased in six of the nine U.S. regions in the last 3 months, the Conference Board reports. The Mountain region, which includes Denver, Phoenix, and Salt Lake City, increased 28.8 percent. The East South Central region, which includes Birmingham, Knoxville, Louisville, Memphis, and Nashville, saw a 10.1 percent increase (Daily Labor Report, page A-9). The U.S. economy bounced back from the shock of the September 11 terrorist attacks to grow at a much faster rate in the final 3 months of last year than initially estimated, the Commerce Department reported yesterday. Fueled in large part by consumer spending, the nation's economic output rose at a 1.4 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the department said, sharply revising the earlier estimate of a meager 0.2 percent annual growth rate. Even though economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research said a recession officially began last spring, the new figures indicate that overall economic activity declined only in the third quarter of last year (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, page A1). What drove up consumer spending in the fourth quarter, and is still driving it up, was zero-percent financing, price discounts, tax rebates, and huge promotional pricing for big-ticket items, says James W. Paulsen, a senior economist at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis (Louis Uchitelle, The New York Times, page C2). As recessions go, the one that officially started last year appears to be one of the strangest. A few economists, in fact, aren't even sure a recession occurred. Their argument was bolstered by the Commerce Department's revision of fourth quarter economic growth. The department now figures the economy grew at a 1.4 percent annual rate, up from the government's previous estimate of 0.2 percent, thanks to surprisingly strong consumer spending on automobiles and other products (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Consumers spent briskly in January, as their incomes rose solidly, the Commerce Department reported today. The news was a fresh sign that the U.S. economy, shaken by the recession and terrorist attacks, is on the road to recovery. Spending by consumers, which accounts for two-thirds of all economy activity in the United States, rose 0.4 percent last month after being flat in December. At the same time Americans' incomes, which include wages, interest, and government benefits, also increased by 0.4 percent, the largest advance in 6 months. Incomes rose 0.3 percent in December (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-020301econ.story). U.S. consumer spending posted a robust gain in January, 0.4 percent, its best showing since October. Income growth kept pace, climbing by 0.4 percent in the month. Disposable income -- income minus taxes -- grew a hefty 1.6 percent, boosted by changes in January tax withholding made as a result of income tax cuts enacted last year. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected income to post a smaller 0.1 percent gain, and spending to see a 0.3 percent
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 28, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Employers initiated 2,146 mass layoff actions in January 2002, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment, and the number of workers involved totaled 263,821. The number of initial claimants for unemployment insurance was the highest for the month of January since the series began in April 1995. Today's BLS release on mass layoffs uses the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) for the assignment and tabulation of layoff data by industry. Previously, the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system was used. Thus, all industry data in this release differ from data previously published. The number of new U.S. jobless claims last week was smaller than expected at 378,000, the government said today, while the 4-week moving jobless claim average, a more reliable indicator of labor market trends, fell to its lowest level in more than 6 months. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose 17,000 in the February 23 week from a sharply downwardly revised 361,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. The climb, however, was not as large as Wall Street expectations for a rise to 385,000 from the 383,000 originally reported for the February 16 week. The closely watched 4-week moving average, fell to 373,250 in the week ended February 23 from 376,250 in the previous week. This was its lowest level since 372,000 in the week of August 11, 2001 (Reuters, http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2763930.htm). The U.S. economy, propelled by the biggest surge in consumer spending on big-ticket goods in 15 years, grew at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the final quarter of 2001, the government reported today. The bigger-than-expected increase in the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy's health, could mean that economists will date the end of the recession around the end of last year or the beginning of this year. The revised reading on fourth-quarter GDP as reported by the Commerce Department is much stronger than the 0.2 percent growth rate estimated by the government a month ago. Many economists were forecasting a revised 0.9 percent rate of advance in the GDP, which measures the total output of goods and services produced within the United States. The 1.4 percent growth rate marked the economy's strongest performance in a year and came after the economy shrank at a 1.3 percent rate in the third quarter. In another report, the Labor Department said new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 to 378,000 last week. But the more stable 4-week moving average of claims, which smoothes out week-to-week fluctuations, fell to a 6-month low of 373,250, a sign that the economy is improving. A factor contributing to the stronger fourth-quarter GDP was more brisk government spending, which rose at a rate of 10.1 percent compared with a 0.3 percent growth rate in the third quarter. And, the trade deficit in the fourth quarter was less of a drag on the economy than the government had previously thought. The deficit reduced fourth quarter GDP by 0.35 percentage point, rather than 0.85 percentage point as initially reported (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-020228econ.story?coll=chi%2Dbusin ess%2Dhed). Wal-Mart stores has just passed Exxon Mobil to become the world's largest company by sales and will thus top the Fortune 500, begins Virginia Postrel, author of The Future and Its Enemies in The New York Times feature Economic Scene, page C2. Postrel contends: By making goods cheap and available, Wal-Mart has raised the standard of living of average Americans. She quotes from a study made by McKinsey Global Institute, the research arm of the McKinsey consulting firm, which says Surprisingly, the primary source of the productivity gains of 1995 to 1999 was not increased demand resulting from the stock market bubble, as some economists have claimed. Nor was information technology the source, though companies accelerated the pace of their I.T. investments during those years. Rather , managerial and technological innovations in only 6 highly competitive industries -- wholesale trade, retail trade, securities, semiconductors, computer manufacturing and telecommunications -- were the important causes. Competition and better management, not simply the spread of computers and the Internet, made the difference. Nowhere is that clearer than in retailing, Postrel continues. From 1987 to 1995, labor productivity grew an average of 1 percent a year. From 1995 to 1999, it grew 2.3 percent a year. This big jump, combined with increased employment, meant that real output per capita grew nearly 4 percent a year -- an extraordinarily fast rate comparable with those of
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2002: Consumer confidence slipped this month after 2 months of gains, but it remains high enough to support healthy consumer spending in the months ahead, the Conference Board said yesterday. The board, a New York-based research group, said its monthly confidence index fell to 94.1 this month from 97.8 in January. However, it was still well above its November low of 84.9. The two components of the index, consumers' assessment of current economic conditions and what they expect conditions to be 6 months from now, both fell (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, page E3). Consumer confidence stumbled in February, falling 3.7 percentage points from last month to 94.8 percent, despite evidence that the economy has begun to recover (Daily Labor Report, page A-12). Consumer confidence fell this month as concerns about unemployment and the reliability of company earnings reports dimmed enthusiasm that has been building since September, a private research group said yesterday. The decline in the Conference Board gauge of sentiment was larger than expected. More than 80 percent of those surveyed indicated they were concerned about jobs. The confidence index sank to its lowest level in 7 and 1/2 years in November, as Americans were still reeling from the September terrorist attacks (Bloomberg News, The New York Times, page C12). Americans' anxiety about the jobs outlook helped pull down consumer confidence in February, suggesting continued volatility as the economy seeks to pull itself out of recession. In January, the jobless rate dipped to 5.6 percent, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from December, according to the Labor Department. But that occurred because the labor force shrank by 924,000, and economists think the rate will rise again as cautious companies delay rehiring laid-off workers February figures are to be released next week (Associated Press, http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0202270366feb27.story). Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket goods rose a larger-than-expected 2.6 percent in January, suggesting the nation's battered manufacturing sector is edging toward a recovery. The solid advance in orders for durable goods -- costly manufactured items expected to last at least 3 years -- followed a 0.9 percent rise in December, the Commerce Department reported today. It was the third increase in the last 4 months. Many analysts had forecast a smaller, 1 percent rise in orders in January (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/271748p-2492211c.html). Industrial production fell in all regions in January, compared with a year earlier, but the rate of decline isn't nearly as steep as late last year, says The Wall Street Journal, page B7. Manufacturers are expected to boost production in the months ahead, because inventories are so low and retail sales are holding firm. Regions likely to stabilize first include those with a concentration of auto and related products such as steel and specialty textiles, including East South Central and Great Lakes states. But New England and western states, more dependent on technology products, especially telecommunications gear and semiconductors, are recovering slowly because of lackluster sales and high inventories. Particularly hard hit are smaller states with a dominant semiconductor sector. Consumer spending has held up beyond almost everyone's expectations, writes Louis Uchitelle in The New York Times, February 24, 2002, page 4, Money Business section 3. Thanks to all the consumption, companies have run down their inventories of unsold goods to unusually low levels. Restocking is imminent, the forecasters say. The inflation rate is hardly noticeable -- price cutting has been widespread -- zero interest auto loans being only one example. Low interest rates have also encouraged spending. So have falling fuel prices. As rates fell, mortgage refinancing put billions of dollars into the pockets of home owners without raising their monthly payments. The problem is that none of these factors are likely to repeat themselves. And hourly wages, while still rising smartly in the fourth quarter, have begun to show signs of faltering as unemployment moves higher. Wages are the last domino to fall, said Jared Bernstein, a labor economist at the Economic Policy Institute. The progression is weak economic growth, rising unemployment, and then wages lose ground. Stephen S. Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, expresses some doubt that the day is saved. Says he: The numbers have broken to the upside temporarily. But that has happened in past recessions only to give way to fresh hard times. Skepticism should not be suspended. If you're unemployed and looking for a job, you may have to be a little more patient: The average time needed to find work is rising. It was 3.4 months in the fourth quarter of last year, up from 2.2 months in the
BLS Daily Report, Tuesday Feb. 26
North Carolina, at 5.5%, had the highest unemployment-rate increase among states last year from the year before, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics (The Wall Street Journal, page A1). The home-buying market remained strong in January, as existing home sales across the U.S. surged to a monthly record. The data got a lift from unusually warm weather and continuing low interest rates. Seasonally adjusted, existing homes sold at an annual rate of 6.04 million units in January, up 16.2% from 5.20 million units in December, according to the National Association of Realtors. January marked the first time the nation's home-sales rate exceeded six million units, and it outpaced the previous record of 5.49 million units in August 2001. In addition, January's strength was broad-based, as each of the nation's four regions reported record sales levels (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Mild weather and low mortgage interest rates combined to produce the biggest January ever for home resales. Across the USA, existing homes sold during the month at an annualized rate of 6.04 million. The strong monthly sales pace, the first above six million, far exceeded economists' expectations and blew away the 5.49 million sales rate in August of last year. Prices in January were up sharply, too, the National Association of Realtors said. The sales midpoint in January of $151,100 is up 10.2% from January 2001 (The New York Times, page C10; and The Washington Post, page E3). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 2002: Starting in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release a new measure called the superlative consumer price index, which is designed to come closer to a cost-of-living measure than the current index, BLS officials say. We consider this a major development in our consumer price program, says John Greenlees, BLS associate commissioner for consumer prices. The superlative CPI -- to be known as the C-CPI-U -- will be a supplemental inflation measure, and will not replace either of the current CPIs. The new measure's name stands for chained consumer price index for all urban consumers. Private economists, as well as policymakers at the Federal Reserve, have urged the BLS to offer a price measure that more closely approximates a true cost-of-living measure. BLS has been moving toward the publication of a superlative price index since additional funding was provided in the agency's fiscal 1998 budget. But the catch for some prospective users, Greenlees acknowledged, is that the new superlative index will be revised on a regular basis to reflect updated data on spending patterns. The two official CPIs are not often revised to reflect changes in purchase patterns. Because labor and commercial contracts often link increases in wages or other costs to the CPI, the bureau has avoided revisions that would cause difficulty for those users, he said. Revisions of the superlative index will be one year apart. Greenlees said the first estimates of the new index will be called the initial release; the second will be the interim release; the third will be the final release. So far, the agency's research shows that over the 10-year period from 1990 through 2000, the CPI-U and the superlative index tracked very closely. In most months, the two measures are only one-tenth or two-tenths percent apart, he said. During that decade, the CPI-U rose by 20.8 percent while the superlative index increased by 19.5 percent, he said. Superlative index figures will not be seasonally adjusted until there is a long enough history to develop adjustment factors. Published data will show price changes for 28 items using a broad index for the U.S. city average. The index will have a 1999=100 reference base and will not be calculated for periods before December 1999 (Pam Ginsbach, Daily Labor Report, page A11, E8). Unemployment rates increased in more than half the states in 2001 for the first time since 1992, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says. Jobless rates were higher in 42 states in 2001. Nationally, the unemployment rate increased to 4.8 percent in 2001, from 4.0 percent in 2000. Employment population ratios -- the proportion of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and over with a job -- dropped in 38 states and the District of Columbia, BLS said. The lowest annual unemployment rate for 2001 was in North Dakota, 2.8 percent, followed by Nebraska at 3.1 percent. In 2001, 30 states had unemployment rates below the national average, while 18 states and the District of Columbia reported higher rates, BLS said (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Looking toward the second quarter of this year, U.S. employers expect a modest increase in their hiring, notably in the beleaguered manufacturing sector, Manpower, Inc., reports. The Milwaukee-based temporary help firm reported that about 21 percent of the nearly 16,000 firms interviewed recently said they plan to add employees during the second quarter compared with only 16 percent in the first quarter. About 10 percent of employers said they expect layoffs in the second quarter. The 21 percent of employers who expect to add workers in the April-to-June period is still below the 28 percent who described such plans a year ago (Daily Labor Report, page A-10; Melissa McCord, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/268614p-2471998c.html). Data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs in 2001 show that lump-sum payment provisions were in 11 percent of all nonconstruction contracts, down from 13 percent in 2000 and 15 percent in 1999, and below the high of 36 percent in 1988. The analysis is based on a database of 714 collective bargaining agreements covering more than 1,060,000 workers. Construction contracts were excluded because none contained lump-sum pay provisions. Further, holiday, vacation, and other such bonuses were not included in the analysis (Daily Labor Report, page D-4). Small business continues to grow. Its share of the private non-farm economy has increased to 52 percent over the past decade, according to a report by the Office of Advocacy of the Small Business Administration. The growth has been driven by the shift in the economy toward small business-dominated sectors, such as services. The study found that small businesses constitute 68 percent of services, 65 percent of wholesale and retail trade, and 27 percent of mining and manufacturing, the last being the
BLS Daily Report, Friday Feb. 22
RELEASED TODAY: Annual average unemployment rates rose in more than half the states in 2001 for the first time since 1992, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The four census regions and nine geographical divisions all recorded rate increases. Employment-population ratios declined in 38 states and the District of Columbia. At the national level, the annual average jobless rate rose from 4.0 percent in 2000 to 4.8 percent in 2001, and the employment-population ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage point to 63.8 percent. New claims for unemployment insurance benefits for the week ending Feb. 16 totaled 383,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 373,000, the Employment and Training Administration reports. The less volatile, more closely watched four-week moving average increased 5,750 to 381,750 for the period ended Feb. 16, from the previous week's revised average of 376,000, ETA said (Daily Labor Report, page D-8). The index of leading economic indicators increased in January for the fourth consecutive month, suggesting that the recession may be ending. The 0.6 percent increase follows a revised 1.3 percent rise in December, according to the Conference Board, a New York-based research organization (Daily Labor Report, page D-11). The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed by 11.4 percent in December as exports edged up and imports declined, the Commerce Department reported Feb. 21 (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). A drop in imports helped cause the U.S. trade deficit to decline by $3.3 billion in December, to $25.3 billion, the Commerce Department said. The deficit was significantly less than department economists had assumed when they estimated that the economy grew at a meager 0.2 percent annual rate during the final three months of 2001. A number of analysts said the trade figure, coupled with other new data, means Commerce is likely to revise its estimate upward to 1 percent or better (The Washington Post, page E2). Despite growing signs that the economy is in recovery mode, the jobs pool continues to shrink and unemployed workers are exhausting jobless benefits in numbers not seen since the early 1970sAs the unemployment rolls grow, so do the number of workers who have collected unemployment benefits for 26 weeks, the limit on eligibility. The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington think tank, estimates that nearly 81,000 workers are exhausting their benefits every week (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). A survey released by the National Association of Manufacturers found that 45 percent of its members expected to increase their capital spending in the first half of this year by as much as 5 percent, while 38 percent said they anticipated a continued decline in capital spending. The outlook for unemployment remains muddled. The unemployment rate has historically continued to rise for some months after a recession; after the last recession ended in March 1991, unemployment drifted up for 15 months, to 7.8 percent from 6.8 percent. The rate is now 5.6 percent. Some economists said the rate was likely to hit 6.5 percent before falling. Others said it would not rise much more. application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report, Thursday Feb. 21
Rising prices for gasoline contributed to a 0.2 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index in January, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase brings the index to 177.1 (1982-84=100), after decreases in October, November, and December, BLS said (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The inflation-adjusted earnings of U.S. workers declined by 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Real pay often declines during a recession as employers reduce hours and weaker demand for workers holds down wage increases. Since the recession began in March 2001, real weekly earnings have risen by a modest 1.4 percent. Without adjustment for inflation, weekly pay is up 2.1 percent since last March (Daily Labor Report, page D-19). Data from newly negotiated contract agreements, compiled by BNA through Feb. 18, show that the average first-year wage increase was 3.7 percent, the same as that in the comparable period of 2001. The median first-year increase for the same settlements was 3.5 percent. Among nonmanufacturing (excluding construction) settlements, the average increase was 4.2 percent, while manufacturing contracts posted an average increase of 2.3 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-24). Negotiated wage and benefit increases in the construction industry are expected to come in at close to the 4 percent average rate for all contracts last year, according to the Construction Labor Research Council's bargaining outlook (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). The Labor Department will publish a new consumer price index beginning this summer to address some longstanding concerns that the current index overstates inflation. The new measure, called a superlative or chained consumer price index, is meant to better capture how consumers tend to shift purchases to products whose prices are falling in relative terms. It will supplement, but not replace, the current CPI, the most widely used measure of how a household's cost of living changes over time, the Labor Department said yesterday. Bureau of Labor Statistics research suggests annual inflation would be 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point lower measured with the new index. The new chained CPI will be published by BLS beginning with July's data in August (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Higher prices for gasoline, medical care, and some food items contributed to a mild rise in consumer inflation in January, the government said yesterday. But prices for clothing, cars, lodging and computers all fell, providing shoppers with some bargains. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent last month, meeting expectations, after dipping 0.1 percent in December, the Labor Department reported. Excluding energy and food prices, which can swing widely, the core rate of inflation increased 0.2 percent in January, up slightly from a 0.1 percent advance the month before (The New York Times, page C12). With energy costs declining sharply, consumer prices rose only 1.1 percent over the 12 months ended in January, the smallest increase since 1986, the Labor Department reported yesterday (The Washington Post, page E3). Many economists are raising their near-term forecasts for U.S. growth, citing the resiliency of consumer spending (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). One of the missing ingredients for a solid U.S. economic recovery this year--business spending on new plants, equipment and software--may be about to fall into place. The National Association of Manufacturers said yesterday that a survey of its members found that they plan to increase their capital spending throughout 2002, after a year of significant declines (The Washington Post, page E3). DUE OUT TOMORROW: State and Regional Unemployment, 2001 Annual Averages application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2002 RELEASED TODAY: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in January, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 177.1 (1982-84=100), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. For the 12-month period ended in January, the CPI-U increased 1.1 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also increased 0.2 percent in January, prior to seasonal adjustment. The January level of 173.2 was 0.9 percent higher than the index in January 2001. Real average weekly earnings fell by 0.5 percent from December to January after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. This decline was due to a 0.3 percent drop in average weekly hours and a 0.2 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Average hourly earnings were unchanged. Employers say that to avoid layoffs, they are more likely to eliminate overtime than resort to freezing or cutting salaries, according to a survey released by the Center for Survey Research and Analysis... (Daily Labor Report, page A-8). Findings in a not-yet-released government study of nursing home staffing reiterated what others before it have concluded -- more nurses and nurse aides would improve quality of care for patients. The draft study also suggested that a requirement for minimum expenditures for nurse staffing could boost the nursing workforce without necessitating minimum nursing requirements. (Daily Labor Report, page A-11). Spiraling health care costs remain a significant concern for employers, according to survey findings published by BNA, February 14, which show that all but a few organizations reported outlays for workers' health care coverage had increased over the previous year. In addition, half of the responding establishments faced great increases in health care expenses over the previous 12 months, while almost none was able to reduce health expenditures or hold them steady. (Daily Labor Report, page C-1). Nearly 25 percent, or 400,000, of the factory jobs eliminated in the last 1 1/2 years in the U.S.A. can be attributed to the sharp decline in exports of manufactured goods, according to a study to be released today by the National Association of Manufacturers. The decline in manufacturing exports was mostly attributed to the sharp rise in the value of the dollar, which makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper. (USA Today, page 1B). Bankruptcy filings surged 19% to a record 1.5 million last year, as businesses and consumers struggled under heavy debt loads during the economic slowdown. ... The economic slowdown produced a spate of corporate downsizings. In addition, many workers who rely on tips and overtime saw their incomes shrink, says President of SMR Research. And retirees who rely on interest income and earnings on investments were hammered by low interest rates and a stock market downturn. (The Washington Post, page E2, The New York Times, page C6). The male labor force participation rate -- the percentage of men 16 years or older who are working or are looking for a job -- fell to the lowest level on record in January at 73 percent. That was down more than 2 percentage points from 10 years ago and more than 13 percentage points from 1952. Women, however, have been increasing their presence in the workplace (USA Today, page 3B). The Northeast had the largest increase in workers losing their jobs in extended mass layoffs in the fourth quarter of 2001: the 65,305 layoffs were 70 percent more than those in the year-earlier quarter, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows. The South had a 40 percent increase in such layoffs, with 88,769. (The Wall Street Journal, page B3). A recently released Labor Department (BLS) survey shows how people in the Washington area spend their money. And it suggests that we are a region of people with high incomes who enjoy luxuries, yet have an underlying conservatism that makes spending patterns relatively traditional. Washingtonians, on average, are wealthy, but ordinary. .. Washingtonians drink, but don't smoke; eat out a lot and enjoy a good book; and spend more on fruits and vegetables than typical Americans, but less on meat. The article is based on the Consumer Expenditure Survey collected in 1999 and 2000. (The Washington Post, February 18, 2002, page E1). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.4 percent in January 2002, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The upturn, the first since May of last year, was led by a turnaround in prices for petroleum. In January, the Export Price Index fell for the fourth straight month, dipping 0.1 percent. A total of 2,538 extended mass layoffs were reported in the final months of 2001, resulting in 486,406 workers losing their jobs for more than 30 days, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This marks the largest number of extended mass layoff events and separations than any quarter since 1995 (Daily Labor Report, page D-5). New claims for unemployment insurance dipped for the second week in a row last week, reaching a level that suggests companies may be easing layoffs as signs of an economic recovery mount. The Labor Department reported today that for the work week ending February 9, new claims for jobless benefits fell by a seasonally adjusted 8,000 to 373,000, the lowest level since January 19. The week before, claims went down by 9,000. The more stable 4-week moving average of claims, which smoothes out week-to-week volatility, sank last week to 376,000. That was the lowest level since August 11, when claims stood at 372,000. Recent economic reports suggest the worst may be over for the nation's manufacturers, which have been hardest hit by the economic slump. Manufacturing activity has edged higher and factories are seeing more demand for costly big-ticket goods (Jeanine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/2571756c.html). The number of U.S. workers seeking unemployment aid fell last week, the government said today, in a report that showed an improving labor market and added to signs the recession may be loosening its grip. But while the report suggested some improvement in labor market conditions, it also showed that workers continue to have a hard time finding new jobs. The Labor Department said the number of workers still filing jobless claims after one week without finding a job rose to 3.43 million in the week ending February 2, the latest week for which data is available (Mark Felsenthal, Reuters, http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2670454.htm). Weaker automobile sales in January pulled overall retail sales down 0.2 percent, but sales outside of the auto sector actually accelerated during the month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau reports. Led by a 2.9 percent increase in sales of building materials, retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts jumped 1.2 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted level of $223.0 billion. Sales also increased a healthy 2.3 percent in personal care stores and 2.5 percent at clothing stores. Even department stores, which have seen activity drop sharply recently, reported a 2.0 percent increase in January (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Bolstered by rising incomes and hopes that the U.S. economy is on the way to recovery, consumer spending continues to outstrip expectations, according to a Commerce Department report released yesterday. Retail sales, other than those at auto dealers, rose 1.2 percent last month, far more than analysts anticipated. In addition, the figure for December was revised upward to show a 0.7 percent gain instead of a 0.1 percent decline, the Commerce Department said. The retail sales figures provided new support for predictions of many economists that the economy may grow at a 2 to 3 percent annual rate in the current quarter. If it does, the recession that began last spring will be over. A recent report from the National Federation of Independent Business indicates that businesses plan to add to inventories (John M Berry, The Washington Post, page E1; The New York Times, page C2; The Wall Street Journal, page A2). U.S. business inventories fell for the 11th straight month in December, while sales were unchanged, the government said today in a further indication American firms were clearing shelves of stock. Stocks at U.S. businesses fell 0.4 percent in December after a revised 1.2 percent drop the previous month, the Commerce Department said. The number was close to analyst expectations of a 0.5 percent fall (Reuters, http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2670446.htm). The economy of the 1990s wasn't as good as it felt, writes David Wessel in the Capital column of The Wall Street Journal (page A1). With the euphoria gone, he continues, it's clear that the economy, business investment in computers, and stock prices grew at an unsustainable pace. But something substantial happened in the '90s, too, he says. The Web really was invented. Methods of business really did change. Computers allowed us to do new things, says Robert Gordon, a Northwestern University economist who spent much of the decade criticizing cheerleaders of the Economy formerly known as New.
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods edged up 0.1 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. This increase follows a 0.6-percent drop in December and a 0.5-percent decline in November. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by intermediate goods manufacturers fell 0.1 percent, following a 0.8-percent decline in the prior month. The crude goods index increased 3.7 percent after decreasing 9.6 percent in December. With the release of January 2002 data, BLS updated the value weights used to calculate Producer Price Indexes to more accurately reflect recent production and marketing patterns. The new weights are based on shipment values for the year 1997 published by the Census Bureau. From January 1996 through December 2001, Producer Price Index weights were based on 1992 census shipment values. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission has posted data on job patterns for minorities and women in private industry for the year 2000 on its Web site, http://www.eeoc.gov. The information is compiled from EEO-1 reporting forms, collected annually from private employers with 100 or more employees or federal contractors with 50 or more employees. The tables include breakdowns in nine job categories: officials and managers, professionals, technicians, sales workers, office and clerical workers, craft workers, operatives, laborers, and service workers. Numbers are broken down by gender and also reported in six racial/ethnic categories: white, minority, black, Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander, and American Indian/Alaska Native. Along with the aggregate numbers in each category, the postings provide participation rates that examine how a particular group (compared to other groups) is represented within a job category. A nationwide table, as well as individual tables for the 50 states and the District of Columbia, metropolitan areas, and for standard industrial classifications have been posted on the Web (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). New claims for Unemployment Insurance benefits for the week ending February 9 decreased by 8,000 to 373,000, down from the previous week's revised figure of 381,000. Jobless claims data suggests that the labor market is stabilizing, said Gerald Cohen, senior economist at Merrill Lynch (Daily Labor Report, page D-6; The Washington Post, page E2; The New York Times, Bloomberg News, page C14). Posting its fifth consecutive decline, the Bureau of National Affairs Wage Trend Indicator predicts that lackluster job growth will help hold annual wage increases below 4 percent through the end of the year. The index is now at its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 1996. As the economy begins to recover from the recession that began last March, most forecasters expect job growth to be sluggish until the pace of overall expansion accelerates later this year. The Wage Trend Indicator is designed to predict changes in private industry wages as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment cost index (ECI) (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Three reports out this morning gave investors an indication of the health of the industrial sector as well as consumer sentiment. Industrial production edged down by just 0.1 percent in January, the best showing in 6 months, a sign that the nation's battered manufacturing sector may be pulling out of a long slump. The tiny decline reported by the Federal Reserve Friday came after output at the nation's factories, mines and utilities dropped by 0.3 percent in December. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment fell for the first time in 5 months in early February as a sluggish stock market and a stubbornly pessimistic assessment of current conditions denied hopes for a vigorous recovery. The University of Michigan's preliminary February consumer sentiment index fell to 90.9 from 93.0 in January, much lower than consensus forecasts for a rise to 93.4. Factory output was unchanged in January, after decreases in 14 of the last 15 months. A substantial rebound in steel production was one of the factors preventing another drop in manufacturing production, the Federal Reserve said. In another report, wholesale inflation edged up 0.1 percent in January, reflecting higher prices for gasoline, cars, and some food products, the Labor Department said. The latest Producer Price Index figures represented a better reading on inflation at the wholesale level than many analysts were expecting. Many had forecast a 0.2 percent rise in overall wholesale prices for last month and a 0.1 percent advance in the core rate. Forecasters had expected overall wholesale prices to show a rise for last month because energy prices -- while still moderate -- had crept up (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A14994-2002Feb15.html). U.S. business inventories fell in December to the lowest level in 2 years -- another sign
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 2002 After falling three months in a row, the producer price index increased slightly in January, up 0.1 percent, following a 0.6 percent drop in December, according to figures released February 15 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. During the past year, the producer price index dropped 2.6 percent. The index for finished energy goods fell 20.1 percent, while prices for finished consumer foods increased 1.8 percent in the past year. (Daily Labor Report, page D-1) Crude oil prices fell 2.6% on expectations that Wednesday's industry report will show a sixth rise in seven weeks in U.S. gasoline supplies. U.S. reserves of motor fuel are now about 6.9% above last year's levels, leaving refining profits at about a quarter of year-ago levels. U.S. retail gasoline prices fell 0.9 cent to $1.107 a gallon in the week ended February 11, the Department of Energy said in its latest survey of 900 filling stations. The average U.S. price for regular gasoline was 36.9 cents, or 25%, lower than a year ago, the survey showed. Gasoline reached a 21/2-year low of $1.059 on December 17. (http://www.latimes.com) About 114,700 workers were laid off between September 15 through December 29 directly or indirectly because of the September 11 attacks according to BLS estimates. BLS said one-third of those employers expect to call some workers back. (Wall Street Journal, page A1) For plenty of 2001 college graduates the waiting game persists. Numerous financial services concerns, management consultancies, and other employers delayed their starting dates for new grads hired last year. Then some postponed the start dates again. And again. Now, those delays are crimping the prospects for students finishing college this spring. (Wall Street Journal, page B-1) According to Scot Melland, President and CEO of Dice.com, a technology recruiting website, the salary gap between male and female technology professionals grew last year with men earning 12 percent more than women. The gap was greatest for system developers and database administrators, with women earning 25 percent and 22 percent less than men, respectively. (Wall Street Journal, page B-8) A surprisingly strong run of productivity growth appears to be continuing in 2002, an encouraging sign for the economy. Latest evidence comes from the Federal Reserve Board which reported that overall industrial production slipped by 0.1 percent in January, its smallest drop in six months. (Wall Street Journal, page A2) Brussels, Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- European industrial production rose in December for the first time in four months, a sign that the region's economy may be recovering from last year's slump. Factories, farms and mines in the 12 countries using the euro increased production by 0.8 percent from November, the European Union's statistics office said. From a year earlier, production fell 4.1 percent. (http://www.bloomberg.com) RELEASED TOMORROW: The Consumer Price Index and Real Earnings application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Employers reported the separation of 486,406 workers from their jobs for more than 30 days in 2,538 mass layoff actions in the fourth quarter of 2001, according to preliminary figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both the number of separations and the number of layoff events were sharply higher than in October-December 2000. This marked the fifth consecutive quarter of significant over-the-year increases in extended mass layoff activity. Fourth-quarter 2001 marked the largest number of extended mass layoff events and separations for any fourth quarter since 1995. Jobless Americans had a much harder time finding work in the fourth quarter of 2001 than they did in the same period a year earlier, a government report shows today. The number of workers laid off from U.S. firms who remained unemployed for more than 30 days jumped to 486,406 in the fourth quarter, compared with 427,070 in the October-December 2000 period, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The near-14 percent rise represents the fifth consecutive quarterly increase in what the Labor Department calls extended layoffs -- job cuts leading to unemployment for one month or more (Reuters, http://reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnewsStoryID=593791). White-collar workers made up almost 60 percent of the workforce in 2000, up from less than 18 percent in 1900, while blue-collar workers comprised less than 25 percent, down from about 41 percent in 1950, according to a new report by the AFL-CIO's Department for Professional Employees. The report, Current Statistics on White Collar Employees, 2001 edition, also found that the percentage of white-collar employees is expected to increase while the percentage of blue-collar workers will continue to decline. At the same time, the percentage of working women in the workforce has increased with women now accounting for 46.5 percent of the labor force. Women currently comprise the majority of professional, technical, administrative support workers, as well as the majority of sales and service workers, the report said (Daily Labor Report, February 11, page A-6). A drop in car sales, reflecting the waning of free-financing offers, pushed down sales at the nation's retailers by 0.2 percent in January. But consumers didn't close their wallets and pocketbooks last month. They spent on a wide range of items from clothing to building and garden supplies, the Commerce Department said today. Excluding volatile auto sales, overall retail sales rose by a solid 1.2 percent in January (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/250716p-2361492c.html). Economists closely watch housing data these days, looking for clues to the health of the market, which has helped to prop up an otherwise wobbly economy. But a report yesterday from the National Association of Realtors on home-price appreciation raised as many questions as it appeared to have answered. The Realtors said that median prices of existing homes rose 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a year earlier, to $148,000. That was much faster than historical norms. Typically home prices rise between 3 and 5 percent a year, the Realtors' group said. But the bullish report was marred by questions about the accuracy of statistics from one state -- Florida (The Wall Street Journal, page A2; Bloomberg News, http://www.latimes.com/business/la-11098feb13.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines% 2Dbusiness). The percent of foreign-born residents in the U.S. increased to 10.4 percent form 7.9 percent between 1990 and 2000, with gains coming in all regions. Immigrants tend to initially live in places where other family members have previously settled. But labor shortages during the booming '90s caused newer arrivals to also disperse throughout the country. Rocky Mountain states such as Arizona and Nevada experienced among the sharpest growth as immigrants from Mexico filled jobs in the tourism and agriculture sectors. The Great Plains region doubled its percent of foreign born residents to 4 percent, partly because better-paying jobs in cities lured native-born workers away from farms, creating new opportunity for immigrants. The foreign born population is expected to continue expanding because of U.S. labor shortages (The Wall Street Journal, page B13). DUE OUT TOMORROW: U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, January 2002 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 2002: U.S. chain store sales rose in the week that ended Saturday, a possible sign that the economy is edging its way out of recession, according to two reports out Tuesday. U.S. chain store sales rose 2.1 percent during the week ended Feb. 9, after a 0.7 percent drop the prior week, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg reported in their Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot. And Instinet Research's Redbook Retail Sales Average rose 0.9 percent in the week ended February 9 compared with the same period last month (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/retail/2002-02-12-retail-sales.htm). Laid-off employees are finding that they may not be able to get unemployment benefits because they've taken early retirement or severance payments, writes Stephanie Armour in USA Today (page 1B). It can be an unexpected blow to many of the 8.3 million Americans now unemployed. You can have your benefits reduced or be disqualified if you get money from early retirement. You can't double dip, says Jeffrey Wenger, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a nonprofit think tank in Washington. DUE OUT TOMORROW: Extended Mass Layoffs in Fourth Quarter 2001 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 2002: Nonfarm business productivity increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2001 as output and hours worked declined, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. During the current recession, in contrast to the last two recessions when productivity fell, productivity has increased and unit labor costs have been contained, said Vivian Gold, an economist with Haver Analytics, Inc, a New York-based economic consulting firm. Although production was up, the recession was still felt as the number of hours spent on the job fell 3.7 percent, BLS reported. Output dropped 0.4 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-1; The Washington Post, page E2; The New York Times (Associated Press), page C2). For the first time in a generation, American workers became significantly more productive in the past year even as the economy itself was sinking, says The Wall Street Journal (page A2). The Labor Department reported that nonfarm labor productivity, or output per hour worked, grew at a seasonally adjusted 3.5 percent rate during the final 3 months of 2001 and at a 2.3 percent rate in the 9 month period from the start of the recession in March. The aggressive corporate cost cutting that accelerated after September 11 appears to have helped companies be more productive, though at the expense of more than a million jobs and many work-hours. During the previous four recessions, productivity either contracted or barely grew, a sign that businesses in the past reacted more slowly and less effectively to signs of a downturn. The information technology sector is weathering the current recession well, as it continues to show modest job gains and solid contributions to productivity, according to the Department of Commerce in a report entitled Digital Economy 2002. Average annual wages typically are much higher for information technology workers, especially those whose jobs demand the highest skills. According to the Commerce study, the average annual wage for workers in IT-producing industries was $73,800 in 2000, or more than twice the average for all private sector workers, at $35,000 in 2000. Between 1992 and 2000, wages paid by IT producing industries rose by 7.4 percent a year on average, compared with a 4.1 percent average for all private sector industries. Among workers in IT-producing industries in 2000, those in software and computer services and software development earned the highest average wage, $80,900, the report said. These workers saw their wages rise an average of 7.8 percent a year between 1992 and 2000. Most of the acceleration in U.S. productivity growth during the last half of the 1990s was generated by industries showing the greatest IT investment, the report said. These industries included telecommunications, transportation, pipelines other than natural gas, and radio and television (Daily Labor Report, page A-11). The number of Americans with million-dollar incomes more than doubled from 1995 through 1999, as their salaries and their profits from stocks soared, government figures to be published today show. The percentage of their income that went to federal income taxes, however, fell by 11 percent. The incomes of Americans who made less grew as well, though by far less, and the share of their income that went to taxes rose slightly, according to Internal Revenue Service income tax data for the 5 years through 1999, the latest year available. About 205,000 taxpayers made $1 million or more in 1999, up from less than 87,000 in 1995. The average income of those who made $1 million or more rose by $568,000 to $3.2 million. The incomes of taxpayers making less than $1 million also rose, though not as sharply. The income of everyone making less than a million dollars averaged $41,000 in 1999, up from $33,500 in 1995, a 22 percent increase, the data, using adjusted gross incomes, showed. The tax return data showed that the number of taxpayers reporting incomes of less than $25,000 declined slightly, while those reporting incomes of higher levels increased. But William Beech, an economist at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C., which supports lower tax rates to foster economic growth, said that these figures may be misleading in several ways. The data fail to capture the growing number of the working poor and their meager incomes, because many of these are immigrants who work off the books, he said. The reported income that the IRS picks up from tax returns reflects people who are making their way up the economic ladder, Beech said. He also noted that among those who file income tax returns, many of who appear poor may actually be retirees with substantial investments. But they need only modest incomes because their mortgages are paid off and their children are grown (The New York Times, page A17). New claims for state unemployment insurance dropped by 15,000 last week, to a seasonally adjusted 376,000,
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 8, 2002: With each passing week, new economic figures add support to the view that the U.S. economy is turning around, according to many economists, more and more of whom now expect growth at a 1 to 3 percent annual rate in the current quarter. Yesterday, for instance, the Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 376,000 last week, bringing the more important 4-week moving average for claims down to 389,500 -- about the same level as when the recession began 10 months ago. Job declines are growing smaller, and the number of companies adding workers is growing larger, said economist L. Douglas Lee, of Economics From Washington, Inc. Since labor markets typically lag behind other parts of the economy by about 6 months, these signs of stability are emerging quite early in the current cycle, Lee added. Nonfarm payroll employment did fall by 89,000 last month, but even that number was seen as a positive sign because it was the smallest decline since August, just before the September 11 terrorist attacks temporarily knocked the props from under both business and consumer confidence. Much of last month's loss in payroll jobs came in manufacturing, as has generally been the case since the recession began. But even in that hard-hit sector of the economy, things are looking up. The Institute for Supply Management's index that tracks conditions in manufacturing rose to 49.9 last month from 48.1` in December. (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, page E1). Data from newly negotiated contract agreements compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs through February 4, 2002, show that the average first-year wage increase was 3.8 percent, compared with 3.7 percent in the comparable period of 2001. The median first-year increase for the same settlements was 3.5 percent, and the weighted average increase was 2.3 percent. Among nonmanufacturing (excluding construction) settlements, the average increase was 4.4 percent, while manufacturing contracts posted an average increase of 1.6 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-4). Deep discounting of winter merchandise drew consumers into stores in January, offering many struggling retailers a brief respite from a recent spate of sluggish sales (Associated Press, The New York Times page C10; The Wall Street Journal, page B4). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The seasonally adjusted annual rates of productivity change in the fourth quarter and the annual average changes in productivity -- preliminary data measured by output per hour of all persons -- were 3.4 (fourth quarter) and 1.8 (annual averages 2000-2001) for the business sector. In the non-farm business sector, those changes were 3.5 (fourth quarter) and 1.8 (annual averages 2000-2001), respectively. In the manufacturing sector, increases in productivity for the fourth quarter were 3.5 and increases in the annual averages 2000-2001 were 1.0. Breaking the manufacturing down to durable and nondurable goods manufacturing, the fourth quarter changes were 2.3 for durable goods and 4.3 for nondurable goods. Changes in annual averages 2000-2001 were 0.5 for durable goods and 1.5 for nondurable goods. Worker productivity increased in the fourth quarter by the largest amount in more than a year, as businesses cut worker hours and eliminated jobs to cope with the ailing economy. Productivity -- the amount of output per hour of work -- increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the October-December quarter, a big improvement over the 1.1 percent growth rate in the previous quarter, the Labor Department reports. Businesses responded to slumping sales by sharply cutting back on their payrolls. That caused the total number of hours worked to drop at a faster pace than output, thus creating a rise in productivity (Jeannine Avers, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/241551p-2295861c.html). Unemployment continued to worse in nearly all metro regions in December, though there were a few bright spots in the monthly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Of 331 metro regions tracked by the agency, 305 had higher unemployment in December, compared with December 2000 (The Wall Street Journal, page B13). Business activity in the nonmanufacturing sector dropped slightly in January, according to the Institute for Supply Management, which found that the level of new orders dropped, while exports and imports increased. After registering slight growth in December, the index dropped to 49.6 percent in January, from 50.1 percent in December, ISM found. Consideration of December's and November's indexes of 50.1 and 49.8 respectively, indicates that the nonmanufacturing economy has been seesawing over the expansion/contraction mark for the past 3 months, said Ralph G. Kauffman, chair of ISM (Daily Labor Report, page A-7; The New York Times, page C11; Chicago Tribune). A key index measuring the vast services sector of the economy retreated slightly in January, a report Tuesday showed, casting doubt on hopes for a quick rebound from recession. The Institute for Supply Management said its monthly nonmanufacturing index, which measures everything from transportation to legal and financial services, edged lower to 49.6 percent in January from a revised 50.1 in December. That followed two straight rises and bucked economists' forecasts for a rise to 52.0 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates growth (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-02-05-services.htm; USA Today, page 1B). The U.S. economy is poised for recovery this year, led by consumer spending and business investment, the Bush administration says in the Economic Report of the President. The report also sets out long term policy for improving economic institutions and highlights the benefits of globalization. It also elaborates on the economic assumptions used in the fiscal year 2003 budget and analyzes special topics (Daily Labor Report, page A-13; The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray Christmas, Inc. says 2002 began with a huge increase in layoff announcements that included the auto industry as well as several retailers. Corporate layoffs announced in January jumped to a total of 212,704, a 32 percent increase over the December level, the firm said. It was the fourth time in 7 months that job cuts exceeded 200,000. January tends to be a heavy month for layoffs as corporations assess year-end balance sheets and plan cost-cutting moves, said John Challenger, chief executive officer of the firm, based in Northbrook, Ill (Daily Labor Report, page A-11; The Washington Post, page E2; The New York Times, page C11; http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/240854p-2290347c.html). Consumer confidence increased nationally for the second straight month in January, with all regions showing higher levels than in November 2001. Rocky Mountain states, buoyed in part by the Winter Olympics, remained the most upbeat, as they were for most of the '90s. The East South Central region showed the biggest jump, with confidence levels 27 percent higher than in November as its manufacturing sector stabilized, though the region remained below the national average. West South Central states recorded the smallest
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 2002: The Bush administration's budget request for fiscal year 2003 includes $511.1 million dollars for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an increase of $21.5 million over FY 2002, and 2,529 FTE, the same level as FY 2002 . Included in the request is $5.9 million for modernizing the computing systems of the Producer Price Index and International Price Program, and making important improvements to both programs. In FY 2003, BLS will continue to develop monthly estimates on the numbers of separations, new hires, and current job openings for the economy as a whole and major industry groupings. In conjunction with the Census Bureau, BLS will begin in FY 2003 to conduct the American Time-Use Survey. BLS will also implement the conversion of all national, State, and area estimates to the North American Industry Classification System, including reconstruction of historical time series, and complete the 4-year phase-in of the Current Employment Survey (CES) sample redesign. The entire CES program will be based on a probability sample design for the first time. In addition, BLS will continue to improve the quality of estimates produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics program, and to develop the capability to produce additional demographic data at the local level. The BLS request includes $223.0 million and 497 FTE for the Labor Force Statistics program. The FY 2003 request includes $5.9 million to modernize the computing systems for monthly processing of the PPI and U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, and to make important improvements in both programs, such as annual weight updates to the U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes and experimental PPIs for goods and services that will provide the first economy-wide measure of changes in producer prices. The BLS request includes $160.7 million and 1,097 FTE for the Prices and Living Conditions program. In FY 2003, BLS will continue its ongoing plan to update the sample of establishments that is used to produce the local area pay data, the Employment Cost Index, and the Employee Benefits Survey. BLS also will publish the results of the 2001 Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses and 2002 Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries. The BLS request includes $76.4 million and 579 FTE for the Compensation and Working Conditions program. In FY 2003, BLS will publish new measures of labor productivity and unit labor costs for 2 service-producing industries. BLS also will develop a new procedure for adjusting hours collected in the Current Employment Statistics survey from an hours-paid basis to an hours-at-work basis, and conduct a study of the family from an international perspective, including demographic trends and the work/family relationship. The BLS request includes $10.0 million and 81 FTE for the Productivity and Technology program. The BLS request also includes $28.1 million and 214 FTE for the Executive Direction program. It provides agency-wide policy and management direction, including all centralized support services in the administrative, publications, computer systems and statistical methods research areas (Daily Labor Report, page E-47). General Federal budget articles including insights on funding requests for the Department of Labor in The Washington Post (page A13), The New York Times (page A1); The Wall Street Journal (page A8). Surveys indicate that family and medical leave is becoming a more important part of the experience of employers and employees, according to Jane Waldfogel, writing in the Monthly Labor Review. Waldfogel is associate professor of social work and public affairs at Columbia University School of Social Work in New York. Her findings are based on the Department of Labor's surveys of employees and businesses in 2000. On the employer side, more establishments are offering family and medical leave policies, in many instances going beyond what is required by the Family and Medical Leave Act, she said. Two-thirds of covered establishments are finding the act easy to administer and an even larger majority reports that the FMLA has had no adverse effects on their businesses. On the employee side, according to Waldfogel, workers are using FMLA leave in increasing numbers and the proportion of those who say they needed leave but were not able to take it is decreasing. (Carol Kleiman, http:www.chicagotribune.com/.../chi-0202050257feb05.column?coll=chi%2Dbusine ss%2Dhe). Orders to U.S. factories rose by 1.2 percent in December, suggesting that the nation's battered manufacturing sector may see better days ahead, writes Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/240396p-2287416c.html). The advance in factory orders reported today by the Commerce Department came after orders fell by 4.3 percent in November. Manufacturers have borne the brunt of the recession that began in March. To cope, they have sharply cut
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 2002: The nation's employers reduced payrolls by another 89,000 in January, but the cuts were smaller than the average over the prior 3 months, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate declined to 5.6 percent for the month, but analysts say it is too soon to call the improvement a clear sign of a turnaround. Economists say they are encouraged by the pattern of smaller monthly payroll declines since the peak of last October when losses reached nearly half a million. Job losses were again concentrated in manufacturing in January. Since the recession began in March, total employment has declined 1.4 million. There were 7.9 million persons unemployed in January, up 2 million from a year ago (Daily Labor Report, page D-1. Text of Commissioner Lois Orr's statement on the January employment report as presented to the Joint Economic Committee, page E-1). The pace of layoffs clearly slowed last month, the government said yesterday, adding to growing evidence that the recession that began in March could be drawing to a close. But the economy still lost 89,000 jobs in January, in a sign that it remained weak and that any recovery was likely to be uneven, economists said. Manufacturers continued to reduce their payrolls, although at a slower rate than last year, and the sprawling service sector added workers for the first time since August (David Leonhardt and Daniel Altman, The New York Times, February 2, page B1). The economy is flashing clear signs that it is on the mend, but workers are unlikely to feel a recovery for months, says The Wall Street Journal (page A2). That point was underscored by a stack of economic data released Friday. Manufacturing, the hardest-hit sector during the downturn, appeared to be near expanding for the first time in 18 months, according to one report. Consumer confidence rose for the fourth straight month in January, though not as much as was initially reported in mid January. Construction spending surged up in December. Yet the Labor Department said its monthly survey of businesses showed payroll employment continued to fall in the U.S. during January, albeit at a more moderate rate than during the first few months after September 11 (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). The eighteen-month-long contraction in manufacturing activity neared its end in January as new orders, production, and supplier deliveries all expanded during the month, the Institute for Supply Management reported (Daily Labor Report, page A-12). Controlling health care costs is the top priority for employee benefit specialists, according to a survey by management consulting firm Deloitte Touche and the International Society of Certified Employee Benefit Specialists. Over 80 percent of survey respondents said controlling health and welfare costs were a top 2002 priority, compared with second place Internet implementation or expansion (51 percent). The 575 surveyed members of ISCEBS were allowed to choose more than one priority for 2002 in the November 2001 fax-conducted survey (Daily Labor Report, page A-4). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2002 RELEASED TODAY: Employment continued to decline in January, and the unemployment rate decreased to 5.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 89,000 over the month, as job losses continued in manufacturing and construction employment also fell. Consumer and government spending helped the U.S. economy grow slightly during the final quarter of 2001, and several other government indicators released in January were stronger than analysts had predicted, providing hints of a recovery in the near future, economists said (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). New claims for unemployment insurance benefits for the week ending January 26 increased by 30,000 to 390,000, up from the previous week's revised figure of 360,000, according to figures released January 31 by the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration (Daily Labor Report, page D-16). Consumer spending fell back slightly in December from strong activity inspired by auto sales in October and November, while personal income posted its first gain since before September 11, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported January 31 (Daily Labor Report, page D-19) Reversing a four-month downward trend, demand for labor rose slightly in December, up one point to 46, according to the Conference Board's help-wanted index (Daily Labor Report, page A-3). Unemployment insurance funds in Texas and New York will be depleted in the next few weeks unless the federal government provides more than $1.5 billion in loans, state officials said yesterday (The Washington Post, page E1). American cut back on their spending a bit in December as free-financing offers for cars and other incentives began to wane. But incomes rose for the first time in four months, putting consumers in a better position to spend in the months ahead, economists said (The Washington Post, page E3). Jobless claims last week rose for the first time in a month suggesting an uneven economic recovery. Other economic data released yesterday showed strong growth in personal income and a modest deceleration in the growth of labor costs (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). The construction industry slipped back during the first half of 2001, but then proved to be one of the more resilient sectors of the economy as the year progressed, said a vice president of F.W. Dodge. The Dodge Index, a measure of national construction value that uses 1996 as a base year of 100, was at 145 for December, up from 144 in November (The Wall Street Journal, page B2). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report, Thursday January 31
RELEASED TODAY: The Employment Cost Index (not seasonally adjusted) for December 2001 was 156.8 (June 1989=100), an increase of 4.1 percent from December 2000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The Employment Cost Index (ECI), a component of the Bureau's National Compensation Survey, measures changes in compensation costs, which includes wages, salaries, and employer costs for employee benefits. U.S. economic growth turned positive in the last three months of 2001, increasing a slight 0.2 percent on very strong consumer and federal spending, the Commerce Department says. Americans responded to the zero-percent auto financing, which helped lift consumer spending 5.4 percent, while government outlays, both military and nondefense, shot up 9.5 percent ( Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The number of large-scale layoffs soared in New England and the Midwest during December, despite a decline in such events in the U.S. as a whole, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The federal agency tracks so-called mass layoffs, in which 50 or more employees lose their jobs in a single action from a company. New England had 116 such events in December, a 53% increase from the month before, resulting in 12,809 initial claims for unemployment insurance, a 45% jump. And in the Midwest, mass layoffs increased by 28% to 1,013 in December, resulting in 119,250 initial unemployment claims, up 18%. But nationally such large-scale job-cutting actions dropped 9% in December, to 2,425. The largest was in Pacific Coast states--a 44% decrease from November. Lewis Siegel, senior economist at the agency, says the Midwest layoffs were driven by auto-related manufacturers, even as car companies saw a boom in sales because of 0%-financing offers. No industry dominated in New England, though Mr. Siegel notes smaller sectors related to communications and computer equipment had high numbers of layoffs. Mr. Siegel notes, however, that month-to-month comparisons are difficult as the data aren't seasonally adjusted ( The Wall Street Journal, January 30, Andrew Caffey, page B9). Against the backdrop of an economy that is displaying remarkable resilience, the Federal Reserve brought its yearlong campaign of interest rate cuts to an apparent end today, voting to hold rates steady and citing signs of an incipient recovery. The decision by the central bank was announced a few hours after the Commerce Department reported that the economy had defied widespread predictions of a sharp contraction after the terrorist attacks to show a small growth in the last three months of the year. The department said the economy expanded at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in October , November and December, driven in large part by robust consumer spending, especially on new cars. In the previous quarter, the economy contracted at a 1.3 percent annual rate ( The New York Times, page A1). The numbers point to economic recovery. Powered by soaring auto sales and a sharp increase in government spending, the U.S. economy resumed growing in the final three months of last year, albeit at a meager 0.2 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department reported yesterday. The unexpectedly strong number, an initial estimate that will be revised in coming months, suggests that the U.S. recession that began last spring may have already ended. If so, it will have been the mildest on record ( The Washington Post, page A1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: The Employment Situation: January 2002 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report, Wednesday January 30
RELEASED TODAY: In December, 305 metropolitan areas reported higher unemployment rates than a year earlier, 21 areas had lower rates, and 5 areas had rates that were unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Ten metropolitan areas had jobless rates over 10.0 percent, with seven of these in California and two along the Mexican border in other states. Only 3 areas recorded rates below 2.0 percent, compared with 43 areas in December 2000. A measure to boost payment levels and expand unemployment benefits to part-time and newly hired workers will receive a second Senate vote the week of Feb. 4, following the proposal's narrow defeat Jan. 29 ( Daily Labor Report, page AA-1). Consumer confidence increased in January for the second consecutive month, hinting that a recovery from the recession could be near, according to the Conference Board. Confidence increased nearly three points from 94.6 in December to 97.3 in January ( Daily Labor Report, page A-4). A rise in durable-goods orders in December and an increase in consumer confidence in January have added to the likelihood that Federal Reserve policy makers, who meet today, have finished cutting interest rates for now. New orders for durable goods, or items meant to last three years or longer, rose by 2.0% after falling 6.0% in November, a drop originally estimated at 4.8%. Capital-goods orders excluding defense rose 1.3%, the third straight increase, paced by a 3.5% gain in orders for computers and electronics, suggesting business investment, the dominant factor in the recession, may have stabilized. Separately, the Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence rose to 97.3 in January from a revised 94.6 in December ( The Wall Street Journal, page A2, and The New York Times, page C4). Since March, nearly 1.4 million jobs have been lost--1.1 million of them in manufacturing--as the nation tipped into recession and then suffered the shock of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, which triggered waves of layoffs in the airline, hospitality and related industries. The nation's payrolls plummeted by more than 800,000 workers in October and November combined, followed by a drop of 124,000 in December. Analysts' expectations vary widely, but many expect Labor to report a small decline of 20,000 or so in January, which would be a big improvement compared with the previous months. But in recent days, a growing number of forecasters have begun to predict a rise in payrolls of up to 100,000 jobs. (This article also shows a graph charting the unemployment rate and another one charting the monthly change in non-farm payroll employment, and cites BLS as the source.) ( The Washington Post, page E1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Employment Cost Index, December 2001 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT: Tuesday, January 29, 2002 RELEASED TODAY: In December 2001, there was 2,425 mass layoffs actions by employers as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, according to data from the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment, and the number of workers involved totaled 267,839. The number of layoff events and initial claimants for unemployment insurance, while lower than in December 2000, were the second highest for the month of December since the series began in April 1995. Sales of new homes rose 5.7 percent in December, thanks in part to low mortgage rates, making 2001 a record year for new-home sales, the Commerce Department reported. The country slid into recession in March and was dealt another blow by the September 11 terror attacks, but the housing market, one of economy's few bright spots, managed to hold up well because of low mortgage rates, analysts say ( Washington Post, page E2, New York Times, page C1). Job dissatisfaction and an aging population have contributed to a shortage of nurses, according to numerous studies. But the University of Pennsylvania's School of Nursing says interest is now rising. The stability of nursing and the health professions is appealing, says Linda Aiken, a professor there. Applications for fall are up at the University of Washington's School of Nursing. You can graduate at 22 and be making $40,000, says Carolyn Chow, recruiting director (The Wall Street Journal page A1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: December 2001 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daly Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, JANUARY 28, 2002 NEW YORK (MONEY Magazine) - Over the past few years, employers fattened their benefit plans with an array of tasty treats, from pet insurance to stress-reducing lunchtime massages. This year, it's back to basics -- retirement, health care, stock options and insurance -- as compensation and benefits managers trim calories in response to the economic downturn and the mounting uncertainty of a nation at war. Personal retirement funds may be getting a heavy beating from the stock market and layoffs, but the value that employees place in their nest eggs hasn't diminished. Defined-benefit plans: Companies are moving away from traditional pensions (in which the payout is determined by a formula applied to final average earnings) in favor of less costly cash-balance plans and the increasingly popular 401(k) defined-contribution plans. (http://money.cnn.com/2002/01/24/companies/benefits_money) Younger workers who once expected to ride the wave from the economic surge are instead taking some of the biggest tumbles in the recession. The trend alarms economists because youth unemployment can hamper income and advancement later on. The jobless rate for those ages 20 to 24 hit 9.6% last month, while those 16 to 19 are seeing unemployment rates topping 16%, according to the Department of Labor. That's far above the national jobless rate of 5.8%. (http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-01-24-unemployment-young.htm, Page 1B) According to data compiled by BNA, the all-settlements weighted average first-year wage increase in agreements reported in 2001 was 4.2 percent, compared with 3.8 percent in 2000. The second- and third-year weighted average increases in agreements in 2001 were 3.7 percent and 3.8 percent respectively. (Daily Labor Report, page D-1) With the economy in particular decline in the Pacific Northwest, where Oregon and Washington have the two highest unemployment rates in the nation, hundreds of immigrant laborers have left agricultural area on the eastern side of the Cascade Mountains in recent months, looking for work in the urban areas on the western side. However, the market for such unskilled work is drying up. (The New York Times, Sunday , January 27, section 1, page 18) A study released last week by the Economic Policy Institute in Washington argues that a stronger recovery than is currently forecast by most economists will be needed to prevent unemployment from continuing to rise this year. The unemployment rate was 5.8 percent in December up from a low of 3.9 percent in October 2000. The institute's study predicts that even with the economy recovering, unemployment will continue to rise, reaching 6.5 percent by the fall, and hovering in the 6 percent range next year. (The New York Times, page A21) DUE OUT TUESDAY: Mass Layoffs in December application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
FRIDAY, January 25 New claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended Jan. 19 dropped to their lowest level since July, falling 15,000 to 376,000 seasonally adjusted, down from the previous week's revised total of 391,000, according to figures released by the Employment and Training Administration (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Smaller pay gains and widespread layoffs held down personal income gains in most states during the third quarter of 2001, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. BEA says 33 states posted personal income gains of less than 1 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-4). The number of workers filing new claims for state unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in almost six months, the Labor Department reported today, a sign that companies are slowing the pace of dismissals (The New York Times, page C10). The U.S. economy, slumping for nearly a year, is showing enough signs of revival that there is no clear need for legislation to give it a short-term boost, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said yesterday. There have been signs recently that some of the forces that have been restraining the economy over the past year are starting to diminish and that activity is beginning to firm, Greenspan told the Senate Budget Committee (The Washington Post, page A1). Although a number of analysts now look for an economic recovery in the second half of 2002, indicators such as an unemployment rate that is expected to hover in the 6 percent range throughout the year could create a rocky environment for bargaining in several sectors in coming months (Daily Labor Report, 2002 Labor Outlook, page S-17). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
Daily Report: Thursday, January 24, 2002 Recent signs of strength in consumer confidence and manufacturing activity may show that the economy is poised to rebound from recession by spring, a panel of top banking economists said January 23. Despite lingering concerns over the economy, the Federal Reserve's aggressive actions over the past year should soon generate visible signs of recovery, said Gregory Miller, chairman of the economic advisory committee and chief economist at SunTrust Bank in Atlanta. A years worth of interest rate reductions takes time to germinate within the economy (Daily Labor Report, page A-5). Data from newly negotiated contract agreements compiled by BNA through Jan. 21, 2002, showed that the average first-year wage increase was 4.0 percent, compared with 3.7 percent in the comparable period of 2001. The median first-year increase for the same settlements was 3.7 percent, compared with 3.1 percent a year ago, and the weighted average increase was 2.1 percent, compared with 3.6 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Female managers are not only making less money than men in many industries, but the wage gap has also deepened during the economic boom years of 1995 to 2000, a congressional study to be released today reports. Full-time female managers earned on average less than their male counterparts in the 10 industries that employ 71 percent of all female workers, and in seven of the 10 fields, the pay difference widened. The study found that a full-time female communications manager earned 86 cents for every dollar a male made in her industry in 1995. In 2000, she made 73 cents on the man's dollar. The study was prepared by the General Accounting Office using data from the Department of Labor's quarterly Current Population Survey (Washington Post, page A2). Even without a Congressional economic stimulus package, a few sources of stimulus seem to be quietly bolstering modest growth in consumer spending, increasing prospects that the recession is ending. Most economists still expect this year's recovery to be tepid, in part because household spending has not declined in the recession and little pent-up demand exists for houses, cars and other big purchases. Barring a strong recovery, unemployment is likely to remain at least at its current level of 5.8 percent for most of this year (New York Times, page C3). The difference in managerial salaries for men and women in American industry grew from 1995 to 2000, a Congressional study has found. During one of the nation's biggest economic booms, managerial salaries for women not only failed to catch up to those of their male counterparts, they lost ground in several industries, according to the study, which was released today (New York Times, page A22). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, JANUARY 18, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Most regional and state unemployment rates either rose or were little changed in December, and virtually all were higher than a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The national jobless rate edged up to 5.8 percent in December. Nonfarm employment decreased in 35 states and the District of Columbia. In the recession year of 2001 union membership held steady at a total of 16.3 million across the U.S. economy, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The proportion of wage and salary workers who are union members remained at 13.5 percent -- counting both private and public sector employees. Nearly all industry and occupational categories covered by the BLS figures showed either declining or unchanged shares of union membership last year compared with 2000. About 9.0 percent of private industry wage earners belonged to unions last year, the same as in 2000 (Daily Labor Report, page AA-1; Text E-1; David Ho, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/221432p-2139390c.html). The median weekly earnings of full-time U.S. workers in the fourth quarter of 2001 increased 3.4 percent over the previous year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Measured in current dollars, without adjustment for inflation, BLS said the median weekly wages climbed to $605 in the fourth quarter of 2001 from $595 a week in the third quarter (Daily Labor Report, page D-4). New claims for unemployment insurance dropped to its lowest level in 6 months for the week ending January 12, falling 14,000 to 384,000, seasonally adjusted, down from the previous week's revised total of 398,000, according to the Employment and Training Administration (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The unemployment rate in New York City shot up last month to 7.4 percent from 6.9 percent as more than 10,000 jobs disappeared from the city's battered economy, government officials said yesterday. The December decline brought job losses since the attack on the World Trade Center to more than 100,000 -- a record-breaking drop for a 3 month period that surpassed even the steep decline that began in November of 1990, according to William C. Thompson, Jr., the New York City comptroller. But James P. Brown, the Labor Department's specialist in the New York City economy said he was pleased that there were signs that stores, bars, restaurants and hotels had hired some people in December. The upturn was quite subdued by our usual standards, but it was there, he said. A report released Wednesday by the Federal Reserve Board found that economic activity showed further signs of rebounding in the New York region, while things continued to go downhill in areas like Dallas and San Francisco. One negative sign in New York City was a continued decline in employment on Wall Street, which over the last year had shed almost 22,000 jobs, many of them in the last 3 months. High-paid Wall Street workers pay a lot of taxes, spend a lot of money in stores and restaurants, and keep a lot of other people employed, whether they are computer consultants, golf pros, or taxi drivers (The New York Times, page A20). Evidence continued to accumulate that the recession could be at or near an end, as initial claims for unemployment insurance fell more than economists expected and housing construction showed resistance. At the same time, a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicated that manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic states rose for the first time since November 2000. A Labor Department spokesman said the drop in claims could have been accented by seasonal adjustments that take into account the December holidays when calculating the data. But many economists discounted that concern, noting that the longer term trend suggests a definite firming up of the labor market (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI industry survey for last quarter still points toward a factory decline through this year's first quarter, but expectations for orders in 2002 jumped (USA Today, page 1B). The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $27.9 billion in November, as oil imports fell to the lowest level in more than 2 years, the government said today. The Commerce Department reports that the deficit in goods and services narrowed by 4.9 percent from an October imbalance of $29.3 billion (Martin Crutsinger, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/42p-2146451c.html). The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index surged to 94.2 in early January from 88.8 in December. That was much higher than the consensus forecasts of 89.3 and pushed up the index more than 12 points above its recent trough of 81.8 struck after the September 11 attacks (Reuters, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A2086-2002Jan18.html). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 16, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.2 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. For the 12-month period ended in December, the CPI-U increased 1.6 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) decreased 0.2 percent in December, seasonally adjusted. The December level was 1.3 percent higher than the index in December 2000. Real average weekly earnings increased by 1.1 percent from November to December after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was due to a 0.5 percent increase in average hourly earnings, a 0.3 percent increase in average weekly hours, and a 0.2 percent decrease in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Consumer prices edged down by 0.2 percent in December, capping a year in which inflation was at its lowest since 1998, the government reported today. The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index, a closely watched inflation gauge, rose by just 1.6 percent for all of 2001. That compared with a 3.4 percent jump in 2000, which largely reflected rocketing energy prices. A dramatic drop in energy prices -- reflecting weak demand amid a worldwide economic slump -- was a key force behind the significantly lower inflation reading for 2001. The 1.6 percent increase marked the best showing on inflation since 1998, when the CPI rose by the same amount. In another report, businesses reduced their inventories of unsold goods by 1 percent in November, even as sales fell by 1.4 percent, the Commerce Department said. The report shows that businesses continued to make progress whittling excess supplies, which economists said is necessary to set the stage for increasing production (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/220229p-2127894c.html). A surge of new welfare recipients is forcing states to begin cutting programs aimed at helping former recipients get and keep jobs, according to The Wall Street Journal (page B7). So far, lawmakers are sparing job training programs and child care subsidies. But a host of other programs designed to help people make the transition from welfare to work -- ranging from helping provide cars to substance abuse treatment-- are losing funding. States in the Northeast were more dependent than other regions for foreign immigrants to provide growth in their labor pools during the ''90s, according to a study by a team of Boston-based economists. New York, Massachusetts and New Jersey had the highest share of labor force growth attributed to new immigrants between 1990 and March 2001, followed by California, Hawaii, and Maryland. The study, led by Andrew Sum, director of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University, shows that labor pools in most northeastern states would have shrunk without immigrants because of an exodus of native-born worker seeking jobs in fast growing warmer areas. For example, in New York, some 781,000 immigrants arrived in the labor force between 1990 and 2001, but the overall labor pool in the state grew by just 71,000 meaning all of the growth in labor force, by a factor of 10 times, came from the foreign-born, Mr. Sum says (The Wall Street Journal, page B7). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Union Members in 2001; and Usual Weekly Earnings of Wage and Salary Workers: Fourth Quarter 2001 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, JANUARY 17, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Median weekly earnings of the nation's 98.4 million full-time wage and salary workers were $605 in the fourth quarter of 2001, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. This was 3.4 percent higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 1.9 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the same period. In 2001, 13.5 percent of wage and salary workers were union members, unchanged from 2000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The union membership rate has fallen from a high of 20.1 percent in 1983, the first year for which comparable union data are available. Some highlights from the 2001 data are: * In both 2001 and 2000, about 16.3 million wage and salary workers were union members. * Nearly 4 in 10 government workers were union members in 2001, compared with less than 1 in 10 private wage and salary workers. * Protective service workers, a group that includes police officers and firefighters, had the highest unionization rate among all occupations, at 38 percent. A small decline in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in December resulted in a 1.6 percent increase in consumer prices for all of 2001, the smallest 12-month advance in 3 years, according to figures released by BLS yesterday. The CPI-U decreased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in December. The CPI-U declined or was flat in 4 of the last 6 months of 2001. Most forecasters expect inflation to pick up modestly later this year as the economy begins to recover from the recession that began last March. However, over the next few months, weak world demand for energy and other commodities is likely to keep inflation below 2 percent, predicts Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com. Patrick Jackman, BLS economist, said the 3.2 percent drop in apparel prices between December 2000 and December 2001 was the largest since 1949 when that category posted a 7.4 percent decrease (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Inflation adjusted weekly earnings of most U.S. workers increased by 1.1 percent in December, due to a 0.5 percent increase in average hourly pay and a 0.3 percent increase in average weekly hours worked, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Average hourly earnings increased from $8.11 to $8.17. December's increase in real earnings was the highest in 2001. The second highest was a 0.9 percent increase in November, according to BLS (Daily Labor Report, page D-18). The number of U.S. workers applying for state unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly 6 months, the government said today in a report that showed an improving labor market as the economy struggles to escape recession. The number of workers filing initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 384,000 for the week ended January 12 from 398,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said. The Labor Department attributed the decrease in the seasonally adjusted first-time claims figure to seasonal factors. An official said they were expecting a much sharper rise in the unadjusted figures. Even with last week's decrease, the labor market remained weak. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims hit 776,035, the highest level since January 12, 1991, when they reached 872,472, the department said (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/mlead.htm). Most home-based workers in 1997 were not going to office buildings at all, but rather worked exclusively at home, according to a new Census Bureau report. The 1997 data also showed that of all U.S. workers, 7 percent worked at least one full day at home during a week in the spring or summer, according to the Census Bureau. White non-Hispanic workers made up 76 percent of nonhuman workers compared with 85 percent of home and 86 percent of mixed home and on-site workers, the study -- Home-Based Workers in the United States -- indicates. The report is by Clara Reschovsky and Jeffrey Kuenzi, and was made on the basis of a longitudinal survey of people at least 15-years-old, conducted at 4-month intervals by the Census Bureau (Daily Labor Report, page A-8). Economic activity generally remained weak throughout the holidays, but businesses throughout the country confirmed that they are beginning to see some signs that conditions are improving, the Federal Reserve reports, saying sources in many districts believe a recovery will begin by mid-year or earlier. In the Fed's Beige Book report, an anecdotal summary of business activity in each of the Federal Reserve's 12 districts, the central bank said also said the timing and strength of the recovery are uncertain, leading some firms to budget conservatively for the first quarter. (Daily Labor Report, page D-25). The economy remains weak amidst signs of a nascent recovery, according to the Federal Reserve. While hardly bullish, a Fed survey of current regional economic conditions
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, JANUARY 15, 2002: Weakness in labor markets across the country will dampen wage increases this year, holding private industry pay gains below 4 percent, according to the latest Bureau of National Affairs Wage Trend Indicator report. The WTI's final reading for the fourth quarter 2001 is 99.78, down from 100.34 in the third quarter (second quarter 1976=100). The final reading is unchanged from the revised figure reported in December. Joel Popkin, of the economic consulting firm Joel Popkin Co., the company who devised the Wage Trend Indicator, says the four consecutive declines in the WTI suggest that the next report of the BLS Employment Cost Index will show a 12-month change of about 3.5 percent in private industry wages. The ECI is the government's most comprehensive measure of compensation. The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the fourth quarter ECI figures on January 31 (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). First year wage and benefit increases negotiated in construction collective bargaining agreements during 2001 averaged $1.37 per hour or 4.5 percent above the 2000 level, according to data compiled by the Construction Labor Research Council. Robert Gasperow, CLRC's executive director, says that an unusually low inflation rate means that real increases negotiated in new construction contracts last year are relatively large compared with recent years, indicating that union workers are making gains against inflation. He estimated that the seasonally adjusted consumer price indexes could come in under 2 percent for 2001 (Daily Labor Report, page A-5). In the fourth quarter of 2001, only 77.6 percent of job seekers won equivalent or better salaries -- the lowest level since Chicago outplacement firm Challenger, Gray Christmas, Inc. started to follow such data in 1986, the firm announced Jan. 14. Furthermore, according to the firm's Job Market Index, in the third quarter, the median job search time increased by almost 30 days to 3 months, then increased another 12 percent in the fourth quarter to 3.4 months. Job seekers are fearful, according to John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray Christmas. This, he said, leads to job seekers feeling they must take the first job offered or risk a prolonged period of unemployment. The end result, Challenger pointed out, is likely a substantial reduction in pay (Daily Labor Report, page A-8). The Service Employers International Union, one of a minority of growing unions, says it added 80,000 members last year and has more than 1.5 million members (Work Week feature of The Wall Street Journal, page A1). About 57 percent of 629 white-collar workers surveyed by Steelcase, Inc., Grand Rapids, Mich., say that companies expect increased productivity to make up for staff reductions (Work Week feature of The Wall Street Journal, page A1). According to Federal data, nonmetro workers had a slightly higher adjusted unemployment rate than workers in metro areas in the third quarter of 2001, says Karen Hamrick, a U.S. Department of Agriculture economist. The rate includes discouraged workers, certain part-time workers and others. They also have less chance of finding new jobs, are less likely to be covered by protective legislation, and a larger share drop out of the labor force entirely, according to Ms. Hamrick (work Week feature, The Wall Street Journal, page A1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Consumer Price Index, December 2001; Real Earnings, December 2001 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, JANUARY 14, 2002: Led by a drop in energy costs, producer prices fell 0.7 percent in December, after a 0.6 percent decline in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Producer Price Index has fallen 3 months in a row. According to the latest BLS figures, the so-called core rate of wholesale inflation -- finished goods minus food and energy -- dropped 0.1 percent in December, following a 0.2 percent gain in November (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Wholesale prices in the United States declined in December for the third consecutive month, making last year's drop in wholesale costs the biggest since 1986, government figures showed. The Producer Price Index fell 0.7 percent last month, more than expected, reflecting declines in costs for cars, energy, and food (Bloomberg News, The New York Times, January 12, page B16). Gasoline prices increased 3 cents in the past 3 weeks, ending a 15-week price crash that began with the September 11 terrorist attacks, according to a newly released industry analysis. Gas prices Friday at about 8,000 gas stations nationwide averaged $1.12 a gallon for self-serve regular, analyst Trilby Lundberg said Sunday (The Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/218457p-2107014c.html). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, JANUARY 11, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods declined 0.7 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The December decline follows decreases of 0.6 percent in November and 1.6 percent in October. Prices received by producers of intermediate goods decreased 0.9 percent, following a 0.5 percent decline in the prior month. The crude goods index dropped 9.5 percent, after posting a 7.3 percent rise in November. Wholesale prices, led by a sharp drop in energy costs, fell 0.7 percent in December, helping to make 2001 the tamest year for inflation at the producer level since 1986. The Labor Department's producer price index, which measures price pressures before they reach consumers, fell 1.8 percent for all of last year, the biggest annual decline since 1986, when wholesale prices dropped by 2.3 percent, the government reported today. That marked a big improvement from the 3.6 percent increase in wholesale prices registered in 2000. One of the few benefits of the slowed economy is low inflation. Companies, facing sagging demand, have heavily discounted merchandise and offered free financing and other incentives to lure customers (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/business/V0716.htm). New claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending January 5 decreased by 56,000 to 395,000, down from the previous week's revised figures of 451,000, the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration reports. The 4-week moving average fell 250 to 410,500 from the previous week's revised average of 410,750 (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Two Princeton University economists conclude that labor strife at Bridgestone/Firestone plants, particularly in Decatur, Ill., contributed significantly to the production of defective tires in the 1990s. Using several independent data sources, we find that labor strife in the Decatur plant closely coincided with lower product quality, write Princeton economists Alan Krueger and Alexandre Mas. If antagonistic labor relations were responsible for many of the defects, even indirectly, this episode would serve as a useful reminder that a good relationship between labor and management can be in the company's interest, the study says. Both the company and the union strongly disputed the study's conclusions (Daily Labor Report, page AA-1). After suffering through one of the worst downturns in decades, the nation's manufacturers may be starting to recover, writes Ron Scherer, Christian Science Monitor (http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0111/p1s1-usec.html). The improvement, economists stress, is nascent, uneven, and even ambiguous. But signs are growing that manufacturers-- which helped lead the nation into recession -- are finally seeing order books improve. Demand for washing machines, airplanes, and other durable goods is rising. And a recent survey by the Institute for Supply Management showed some improvement among manufacturing companies. If the trend continues, it could help pull the nation out of recession by spring. Yesterday, in fact, the 52 economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Forecasts predicted the first official recession in 10 years would end by March. A study released today predicts the September 11 terrorist attacks will wipe out more than 1.6 million jobs in 2002 alone and reverberate through the U.S. economy for years to come. The losses will hit cities with exposure to the tourism and airline sectors hardest, but will also spread across a wide range of industries -- from dining to financial services, according to the Milken Institute, a Santa Monica-based economic think-tank. New York City will lose nearly 150,000 jobs in 2002, followed by Los Angeles with 69,000 jobs, and Chicago with at least 68,000 jobs. Already, 248,000 jobs have been lost nationwide because of the attacks, the institute says. The attacks will be impacting economic activity as late as 2004, says Ross DeVol, director of regional studies at the Milken Institute and principal author of the report. The good news is that many of those jobs should come back. Las Vegas will prove the single most vulnerable metropolitan area, likely to see nearly 5 percent fewer jobs this year because of the attacks (Simon Avery, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/nation/story/216540p-2089522c.html). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, JANUARY 10, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The U.S. Import Price Index decreased 0.9 percent in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The decline followed drops of 1.4 percent and 2.3 percent in November and October, respectively. The Export Price Index also fell for the third consecutive month, down 0.2 percent in December. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped during the first week of the new year, the government reports today. The news suggested that the huge wave of layoffs triggered by the recession and the terrorist attacks may finally be abating. The Labor Department reports that new claims for unemployment fell by 58,000 last week to 395,000, the lowest level in 3 weeks. This improvement, which came after 2 weeks of big increases, was about 4 times the 14,000 decline that many private economists had been forecasting. Analysts said it could be a further sign that the labor market is stabilizing after the huge layoffs in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks. On Friday the government reported that unemployment in December hit a 6-year high of 5.8 percent. However, the 124,000 jobs cut from business payrolls during December was sharply down from the 2 previous months when 800,000 Americans lost their jobs as travel-related businesses laid off thousands. A second report today shows that prices of imported goods remained well contained, falling by 0.9 percent in December, the seventh consecutive month that import prices have not increased. For the whole year, the Labor Department says, import prices were down by a record 8.9 percent, compared to an increase of 3.3 percent in 2000. The improvement reflected a big turnaround in petroleum prices, which had risen by 17.5 percent in 2000 but fell by 8.5 percent last year (Martin Crutsinger, Associated Press, http://nandotimes.com/business/story/215576p-2080668c.html). The recession has been tough for everyone, but for many blacks and Hispanics, the economic pain has been even sharper, writes Deborah Kong, Associated Press http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/214661p-2073497c.html). Experts say that's because those two groups tend to be the last hired and the first fired. Blacks and Hispanics have also been particularly vulnerable to the recession because many work in manufacturing, air transportation, hotels and temporary employment services -- industries that have been among the hardest hit by the downturn, some minority advocates say. The recession's blow to minorities was highlighted in the latest national unemployment report, released Friday. For Hispanics, the jobless rate for December was 7.9 percent, the highest it's been since July 1997. The jobless rate for blacks was 10.3 percent -- twice that of whites. This is a tough time for minorities primarily because they tend to be lower skilled than the average person in the work force, says Chris Thornberg, a senior economist at the University of California, Los Angeles. Writing in the feature Politics People (The Wall Street Journal, page A13), Albert R. Hunt says that blacks make only 70 percent as much as whites, almost seven in 10 African American babies are born to a single mother; and minorities are twice as likely to be without health insurance. The black unemployment rate last month was over 10 percent, double that of whites, and one-third of African American teenagers looking for work are jobless. U.S. wholesalers pared back their inventories for the sixth straight month in November, as sales remained unchanged, the Department of Commerce said today. It reported that stocks of unsold goods on wholesalers' shelves fell 1.1 percent. This compared with October's revised drop of 1.2 percent. November's drop in inventories was larger than expected. Economists in a Reuters poll forecast, on average, that inventories fell 0.5 percent. The stocks-to-sales ratio, which measures how long it would take to deplete current inventories, fell in November to 1.30 months' worth from 1.31 months in October (Reuters, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A25049-2002Jan10.html). Last minute shoppers helped rescue many retailers from a disastrous holiday sales performance, but the gains were the result of heavy discounting that's expected to damage fourth-quarter profits. The value-oriented chains, particularly Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., continued to be the big winners. And while department and apparel specialty stores like Federated Stores, Inc., Limited, Inc., and Gap, Inc. continued to struggle, their sales declines were not as steep as analysts expected (Anne D'Innocenzio, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/215669p-2081875c.html). Data on wage bargaining in 2002 compiled by BNA in the first weeks of the new year show that the average negotiated first-year wage increase in all new contracts was 3.8
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 9, 2002: Unemployment grew in nearly 85 percent of the nation's metro areas in November from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Danville, Va., where the manufacturing slowdown has hit the textile industry hard, recorded the biggest increase, up 5.8 percentage points from last year, to 9 percent. Among areas with populations of one million or more, tech-heavy San Jose, Calif., experienced the sharpest increase in joblessness, 5.1 percentage points, to 6.6 percent. Yuma, Ariz., an agricultural area with a high concentration of migrant workers, posted the highest unemployment rate in the nation, 19.2 percent, while Miami's 7.5 percent was the highest among big metro areas. The lowest rate in the nation: 1.4 percent in the Fargo, N.D.-Moorhead, Minn. area (The Wall Street Journal, page B5). With the return of double-digit increases in health care costs, and the possibility of rampant medical inflation rivaling that of the late 1980s, there is a new sense of urgency about health care costs in bargaining, according to a union speaker at a session of the Industrial Relations Research Association's annual conference. Stephen R. Sleigh, director of strategic resources for the Machinists, says health care has been the single most important issue behind strikes over the last 2 years, with the big issues in bargaining being cost-shifting by employers and the overall decline in benefits. Health care costs are the largest nonwage part of the costs of labor, almost 15 percent of total labor cost, according to Sleigh. If there is a red button issue for labor-management negotiations, it is health care, he says (Daily Labor Report, page C-1). For most employers, business as usual remains the rule for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, according to a Bureau of National Affairs survey of 448 organizations. Just one-fourth of responding establishments have scheduled a paid holiday for all or most workers on the third Monday in January this year, little changed from 2001. Workers in banking, education, and government have the best shot at a day off with pay January 21. Almost nine out of 10 banks (89 percent) will grant a paid holiday commemorating Dr. King's birthday, and roughly four out of five government organizations (83 percent) and schools (76 percent) have the same intent. Employees of social service agencies (57 percent) and associations (47 percent) also stand a decent chance of employing a paid day off on the federal holiday (Daily Labor Report, page A-4). Although many researchers attribute the United States' declining rates of unionization to the relatively high wage differences between union and nonunion workers, two panelists at the January 4 Industrial Relations Research Association meeting took the view that wage differences do not matter. Paula B. Voos, a professor in Rutgers University School of Management and Labor Relations, and Dale Belman, a professor at Michigan State University, examined the construction industry to test the theory that union wage gains lead to later decline in union membership. They looked at construction wages in three periods -- from 1975 to 1979, from 1988 to 1990 and in 2000 -- to determine if it was true that those states with a high union/nonunion wage differential, other things equal, had a lower rate of unionization in 1990 or 2000. They found that unionization rates in places where there was a high wage differential were the same during all three periods, Voos said. What really seemed to matter was union density in the area, she said (Daily Labor Report, page C-2). Sales of new and existing homes set records in 2001, even after a pause in sales after the September 11 attacks, as low mortgage rates spurred buying, the National Association of Realtors said. Existing home sales rose 2.5 percent from 2000 to 5.25 million, and new home sales rose 2.5 percent to 902,000, the Washington, D.C. based trade group estimated. The previous record for existing homes was 5.21 million sold in 1999, and the old record for new homes was 885,000 in 1998. For 2002, the group expects existing home sales to fall 0.5 percent, and new home sales to drop 3.2 percent, as mortgage rates rise to 7.3 percent by the third quarter (Bloomberg News, http://www.latimes.com/business/la-02006jan09.story?coll=la%2Dheadline s%2Dbusiness). Sales at U.S. chain stores fell in the last retail week of 2001, concluding what analysts said was the worst holiday shopping season in a decade and suggesting weakness could persist in the new year, two reports showed yesterday. The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg said their retail chain store sales index slipped 0.6 percent during the week ended January 5, after a 0.9 percent rise a week earlier. Separately, Instinet said its Redbook retail sales average fell 3.5 percent in the 5
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, JANUARY 7, 2002l The unemployment rate increased 0.2 percentage point to 5.8 percent in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced. U.S. payrolls declined by 124,000 in December and have dropped by 1.1 million in the final 4 months of 2001. Manufacturing continued to suffer the heaviest job losses, followed by air transportation, retail trade, and help supply. However, the losses were offset by employment gains in services and government, BLS said. The December job losses follow declines that averaged about 400,000 a month in October and November, suggesting signs that a recovery is in sight. However, payroll employment has fallen 1.4 million since the recession began in March. The manufacturing sector was in recession 6 months prior to the rest of the economy, said National Association of Manufacturers President Jerry Jasinowski. Today's report indicates that the current industrial downturn continued in December, as manufacturing employment declined by 133,000 last month to a little over 17 million. The job losses in manufacturing continue to mirror the investment-led nature of the current downturn: roughly three-quarters of the decline in manufacturing employment last month was in durable goods, mainly industrial equipment, electronics and transportation equipment (Daily Labor Report, page AA-1). The nation's labor markets continued to weaken last month as the jobless rate rose to 5.8 percent, the highest level in nearly 7 years. But there were also signs in the report yesterday from the Labor Department that the economy's decline is slowing and could end soon, says John M. Berry, writing in The Washington Post (page E1). The recession has done plenty of damage. During 2001, the unemployment rate rose 1.8 percentage points, with almost half the increase coming after the September 11 terrorist attacks. The total number of people without jobs who were looking for one increased to 8.3 million from 5.7 million in December 2000. And the jobless rate for blacks was in double-digits last month for the first time in 4 years, at 10.2 percent, almost double the rate for whites. Among industries by far the hardest hit last year was manufacturing. The unemployment rate continued to creep upward last month, though fewer Americans lost their jobs than in any of the previous 3 months. The Labor Department reported yesterday that the economy lost 124,000 jobs in December, the smallest decline since August. The unemployment rate rose two-tenths of a percentage point to 5.8 percent, a level it last reached in April 1995. Economists said the numbers suggested the job market might be stabilizing after severe cutbacks caused by the terrorist attacks and by the recession. The also said they saw other promising signs, like a rise in the number of hours worked per week in manufacturing, and a wave of hiring in education and health care (Daniel Altman, The New York Times, page B1). Today, at a conference at the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, two leading experts in the field of productivity will present a research paper arguing that strength in the field of productivity is likely to continue for a while. The work by Dale Jorgenson of Harvard University and Kevin Stiroh of the New York Federal Reserve Bank says that the likely scenario for productivity growth over the next decade remains a robust 2.24 percent annually. That's just a tad lower than the average 2.36 that helped the economy surge from 1995 to 2000. The U.S. productivity revival remains largely intact, the two say in their paper, which was written along with Mun S. Ho of the think-tank Resources for the Future in Washington, D.C. If they're right, there are important consequences for wages, interest rates, and growth. When productivity rises, employers can pay higher wages because they are producing more with less. The Federal Reserve doesn't have to fret about inflation, because output grows without straining resources. Ultimately, that builds a bigger economic pie. The paper puts the long-run noninflationary growth rate of the economy -- the so-called speed limit -- at 3.34 percent over the next decade, about a percentage point higher than what economists believed was possible before the productivity surge. However, the figure represents a sharp reduction from the average annual growth rate of 4.6 percent from 1995 through 2000, with the main difference being a reduction in the growth of hours worked (The Wall Street Journal column The Outlook, page 1). In The Wall Street Journal's feature Tracking the Economy, Import Prices for December, to be released Thursday, are expected to change -0.6 percent according to Consensus Global Forecast, in contrast to the previous actual change of -1.6 percent. The Producer Price Index for December, to be released Friday, is expected to make an -0.2 percent change, in comparison to the -0.6 percent actual change for November. The Producer Price
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, JANUARY 8, 2002: A panel of prominent economists chaired by Charles Schultze of the Brookings Institution has proposed major changes in the way policymakers use the consumer price index, and it is likely the report will become part of the ongoing debate on Social Security reform. Also significantly, but less controversial, the Schultze panel has recommended that the Bureau of Labor Statistics -- the agency that compiles the CPI -- publish more experimental inflation measures and expand the research on key issues such as medical care inflation. Overall, the Schultze panel agreed with recent steps taken by BLS to improve the CPI. Of particular note, the panel said, are agency plans to more frequently update the CPI's marketbasket of goods and services and the related effort to more quickly account for shifts in purchase patterns. Leaving the political issue of how to provide annual increases for Social Security benefits to policymakers, BLS officials said they generally agree with the findings of the Schultze panel. However, it remains to be seen whether the agency has funding to pursue some of the panel's recommendations, said Ken Dalton, BLS associate commissioner for prices and living conditions. Released without fanfare in late November, the Schultze panel's 294-page report is the most comprehensive review of consumer price measurement issues in decades. The 12-member Panel on Conceptual, Measurement, and Other Statistical Issues in Developing Cost-of-Living Indexes conducted its 2-year review under the aegis of the National Research Council at the request of BLS. The bureau asked the National Academy of Sciences to convene a panel of experts to investigate conceptual, measurement, and other statistical issues in the development of cost-of-living indexes. The panel's final report will be published in about 2 months, says an editor at the NRC, which is part of the National Academy of Sciences. Rather than continue to raise Social Security benefits by the annual change in the CPI-W, Congress should switch to what economists call a superlative CPI, the panel recommended. Later this year, BLS will begin to publish a monthly superlative CPI, a measure that comes closer to being a cost-of-living measure because it more frequently updates the marketbasket using data on household purchases. As the Schultze panel explained, a true superlative index requires knowledge of consumer expenditure patterns in real time, and no country's statistical system now produces such data. Because real time expenditure information is not available, the superlative indexes that BLS will publish will apply to the period 2 years earlier: the index published in 2002 will measure price changes only through 2000, the panel said. Dalton of BLS said that in February the agency will announce its plan for releasing superlative index figures on a monthly basis. While BLS does not have funding to begin many of the new research projects proposed by the Schultze panel, Dalton said that agency officials will review the findings and perhaps seek additional money for new research programs (Pam Ginsbach, Daily Labor Report, page A-7. Text of the report's executive summary on page E-7. A pre-publication copy of the report is available on the National Academy Press website at http://www.nap.edu/catalog/10131.html). Are job-loss benefits less popular these days? asks the Work Week feature of The Wall Street Journal (page A1). That could be the case for workers at companies with 100 or more employees, according to recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data. In 1999, 31 percent of those workers had access to severance pay. For that year's data, the bureau included part-time workers who make up a smaller portion of the work force, making past comparisons tricky. Still, severance for full-time workers at those establishments became less popular in the 1990s, with access dropping to 36 percent of workers in 1997 from 50 percent in 1988, 41 percent in 1991 and 42 percent in 1993. Severance is less likely as firms get smaller. Only 24 percent of workers at firms with 100 to 499 employees had severance. Meanwhile, 53 percent of workers at companies employing 2,500 or more had access to severance. Offers of employer-provided health coverage increased for workers in all sectors of the economy over a 4-year period, despite rising health insurance costs, according to a study to be published today in the health policy journal Health Affairs. In 2001, the percentage of full-time workers offered health coverage climbed to 84.7 percent, from 83.3 percent in 1997. The health insurance offer rate for part-time workers rose to 50.4 percent in 2001, from 46.9 percent in 1997. Part-time workers were defined as those who worked between 21 and 34 hours per week. Workers of all races experienced some increases in health insurance
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, JANUARY 3, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: In November, 280 metropolitan areas reported higher rates than a year earlier, 43 areas had lower rates, and 8 areas had rates that were unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Nine metropolitan areas had jobless rates over 10.0 percent in both November 2000 and November 2001, with eight of these located in the West. Only 8 areas -- all in the Midwest or South -- posted rates of 2.0 percent or less, compared with 40 areas in November 2000. The number of fatal on-the-job injuries has declined in the past decade, according to a graph on page 1A of USA Today. The graph charts workplace fatality data from 1992 to 2000, showing 6,217 in 1992 and 5,915 in 2000. Source of the data given is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of planned job cuts in Internet-based businesses fell in December for the fourth time in 6 months, according to a report from Challenger, Gray Christmas. The total number of job cuts among dot-com firms in 2001 was 100,925, compared with 41,515 in 2000, according to the report. Many of the job cuts occurred in the first 6 months of 2001. However, by June, the dot-com sector began a turnaround as job cuts began to fall steadily (Daily Labor Report, page A3). As business moves around the globe, workers are on the move as well, leaving their home countries to escape economic dislocation or searching for better opportunities, according to a new analysis of migration trends by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, says The Washington Post (page E2). Some cities and countries are proving particularly attractive to immigrants, either because of the international work done there or because their governments have a history of welcoming foreigners. In Brussels, for example, the home of the European Union, the workforce is almost 27 percent foreign, and in London it is about 23 percent. In the United States, about 11 percent of the workforce was born outside of the country. The OECD's report also said that many countries are admitting foreign workers temporarily instead of permanently. In the United States, for example, overall immigration has fallen in the past 3 years but changes in immigration law permit many more highly skilled technical workers to come here for up to 6 years. Similar changes have taken place in Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Australia. Even as some economists declare the recession over, one little-followed development in labor suggests that the downturn could be lengthier than the rosier projections indicate. Many employers, uncertain about how long this recession might last and wary of losing valued workers altogether, are reducing the workweek rather than the work force. The trend may soften the short-term effects of the recession and leave employers in better shape when it ends. But for many workers shifted from full-time work to part-time, the belt tightening that results could help delay the recovery. On top of the 1.2 million American workers who have lost their jobs since the recession began in March, a million have been forced into the ranks of part-timers. The number of those who would prefer to work full-time but have had their hours slashed or been compelled for economic reasons to accept part-time work has climbed 34 percent, to 4.2 million from 3.2 million in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (The Wall Street Journal, page A1). New claims for unemployment insurance shot up for the second week in a row, suggesting many workers are still suffering from an economy that is trying to claw its way out of a recession. For the work week ending December 29, new claims for jobless benefits jumped by a seasonally adjusted 36,000 to 447,000, the highest level since the beginning of December, the Labor Department reports today. The week before, new jobless claims rose by 26,000, according to a revised figure. That was a much better increase than the 7,000 gain previously reported. In another report, the Commerce Department said construction activity rose by a solid 0.8 percent in both October and November. A 4.6 percent increase for big government projects led the way in November, with spending rising for highways, schools, hospitals and public housing. Commercial projects, including hotels and industrial complexes, by private builders also posted gains, 0.5 percent. But residential construction by private builders dipped by 2.2 percent, despite low interest rates and brisk housing sales (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-jobless.story?coll=chi%2Dbusine ss%2Dhed). The overall economy grew in December despite a continuing decline in manufacturing, the Institute for Supply Management reported in its monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives (Daily Labor Report, page A-8).
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, JANUARY 4, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Employment continued to decline in December, and the unemployment rate edged up to 5.8 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 124,000 over the month and by 1.1 million over the last 4 months of 2001. In December, job losses continued in manufacturing, transportation, and trade; these losses were partially offset by employment gains in services and government. (Statement of Lois Orr, Acting Commissioner, also released). The nation's unemployment rate climbed to 5.8 percent in December, as businesses cut 124,000 jobs in a market mired in the depths of a recession. It was the highest jobless rate for American workers in more than 6 years. The unemployment rate was up 0.2 percentage points from a revised 5.6 percent in November, the Labor Department reported today. Since the recession began in March, businesses have slashed 1.4 million jobs. December's loss of 124,000 jobs reflected continued declines in manufacturing, retail, air transportation and temporary employment services. But the hemorrhaging slowed somewhat last month. Job losses had averaged about 400,000 a month in October and November. The last time the nation's unemployment rate stood at 5.8 percent was March 1995. It hit 5.9 percent in September 1994 (Leigh Strope, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/210703p-2034638c.html). New claims for unemployment benefits filed in the week ending December 29 increased by 36,000 to 447,000, up from the previous week's revised figure of 411,000, according to the figures released by the Employment and Training Administration (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). A key barometer of the vast U.S. services economy registered growth for a second straight month in December, according to a report issued today by the Institute for Supply Management, formerly the National Association of Purchasing Management. The report helped to solidify optimism that the American economy may have already seen the worst of the current recession. The Institute says its monthly nonmanufacturing index surged to 54.2 percent in December, from 51.3 percent in November. That beat forecasts of a 49.7 percent reading. The index hit a 4-year low of 40.6 percent after the September 11 attacks. A reading above 50 percent indicates growth in the services sector, which includes everything from transportation to legal and financial services. ISM's manufacturing index, which measures less than one-fifth of overall economy activity, has been mired below 50 percent for the past 17 months but showed a strong rebound in new orders in December, spurring recovery hopes (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-01-04-services.htm). A few economic cues should show when recession is ending, writes Greg Ip in The Wall Street Journal (page A1). Here are six of the telltale signs he suggests readers watch for: (1.) When businesses start investing again, especially in technology. A downturn in business, not consumer spending, has driven this recession. Orders for high-tech equipment, which plunged more than 50 percent between May 2000 and last September, rose in both October and November. (2.) When companies start warning of better, instead of worse, profits. Goodrich Corp. announced that the slowing economy and the terror attacks' effect on aerospace would force it to cut thousands of jobs. But in December Goodrich's North Carolina plant announced its services and spare parts business were doing better than it anticipated right after September 11. (3.) When stores and dealers start complaining inventories are too low. This recession has been driven partly by companies curtailing production so they could fill sales by drawing down inventories. In the fourth quarter, James Glassman, economist at J.P. Morgan Chase, estimates inventories fell at a 7 to 8 percent rate, the steepest in decades. (4.) When sales of high-end homes strengthen in high-tech hotbeds. In Seattle, sales of such homes have been sluggish since April 2000, says J. Lennox Scott, president of John L. Scott Real Estate. (5.) When aluminum smelters switch to making aluminum again. A resumption of aluminum production would be a bullish sign for the economy. But it isn't happening yet. (6.) When Gary Condit returns to the headlines. This was a sign of how little some Americans had to worry about. To lessen layoffs, some companies are cutting pay and benefits, says Business Week (December 31, 2001, page 42). As the downturn takes its toll on profits, many companies are imposing new rollbacks on workers who survive layoffs. Roughly one-third of big companies are reducing, delaying, or freezing raises, while more than half are cutting bonuses. Others are cutting salaries outright. Ford Motor, Visteon, and other corporations are
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 2, 2002: So what are you going to do -- not just next year, but for the rest of your work life? If you're not certain, it doesn't hurt to check out the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' best estimates about the employment outlook through 2010 says a Knight Ridder/Tribune Service article published in the Daily Oklahoman, December 31. The bureau expects new jobs to be generated for workers at all education and skill levels. In fact, about a million more jobs are expected to be added in the 2000-2010 decade than were created in the booming 1990-2000 decade. When predicting where job opportunities lie, the bureau looks at the job scene two ways -- percentage growth and numerical growth. Data for the bureau's Occupational Employment Projections to 2010 report were gathered before September 11. Its economists say financial consequences of the terrorist attack may cause some of the outlook to change. Some possible updates may be found in the bureau's 2002-03 Occupational Outlook Handbook (www.bls.gov/emp) which should be available in print early in 2002. The U.S. economy is expected to show signs of recovery by spring as a result of recent policy changes and a leaner business sector, according to a panel of economic forecasters surveyed by the Bureau of National Affairs. The majority of the economists expect gross domestic product will return to positive readings by the third quarter, after a negative first quarter. Panelists said the economy will rebound out of recession by improved profit margins resulting in fewer layoffs and smaller declines in capital investment (Daily Labor Report, Special Report). More Americans will be out of work this year. Many of the nation's trading partners will be entering a recession. But still, 2002 will be better than last year. At least that's the expectations among economists who foresee the nation climbing out of its recession. The worst-hit areas, according to John Challenger of the Chicago outplacement firm Challenger, Gray Christmas, are in manufacturing -- automotive suppliers, steel companies and chemical products. But he says more layoffs are coming up in telecommunications and perhaps in retailing. Yet there is another side to this jobless picture: With corporate America on a just on time manufacturing schedule, companies will be recalling workers to fill orders when the upturn begins. With the housing market strong, Challenger says demand is also strong for mortgage bankers, as well as for some other financial services personnel, such as insurance and bond trading occupations. And the demand goes beyond white-collar jobs, to carpenters and other tradespeople. As the new year begins, he also sees job opportunities in the health care industry, biotech companies and pharmaceuticals. In addition, the defense industry, which is feeling the benefits of more spending in Washington, will be hiring. The Federal Government also will be hiring more air marshals and new airport security guards while local governments may expand social services to help the unemployed and add teachers needed to replace retirees (Ron Scherer, Christian Science Monitor, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/209147p-2018354c.html). Manufacturing activity shrank for the 17th consecutive month in December, although not as much as expected, raising the prospect that the struggling sector is poised for a slow rebound, the Institute of Supply Management -- formerly known as the National Association of Purchasing Management -- says. The Tempe, Ariz. based organization said its index of business activity rose to 48.2 in December from 44.5 in November. Analysts had been expecting a reading of 46. An index above 50 signifies growth in manufacturing, while a figure below 50 shows contraction. While the manufacturing sector continues to decline, the rate of decline has slowed very quickly, giving some hope that recovery may come faster than is generally found in a major downturn, said Norbert J. Ore, who oversees the monthly survey. The ISM measure is closely tracked because it offers an early reading on the health of the manufacturing sector in December. Its index is based on a survey of purchasing executives who buy the raw materials for manufacturing at more than 350 companies. Ore said he was encouraged that two industries -- electronic components and equipment and instruments and photographic equipment -- saw growth last month in new orders (Lisi de Bourbon, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/209231p-2019092c.html). Post-Christmas bargain hunters boosted retail sales the week of Christmas, but retail sales of discount, chain, and department stores fell sharply in the first 4 weeks of Christmas. Instinet Research's Redbook Retail Sales Average slipped 3.9 percent in the first 4 weeks of December, compared to the same period last month. But year-over-year sales in the week ended
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, DECEMBER 31, 2001: Mass layoff events totaled 2,699 in November resulting in job losses for 293,074 workers while 350 of those events were directly or indirectly related to the September 11 terrorist attacks, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The total number of layoff events and the total number of persons affected were the highest for any November on record since the data series began in 1995. After the September 11 attacks, BLS added a new classification -- non-natural disaster -- for use in the quarterly reporting of extended mass layoffs. Those events involved nearly 104,000 workers between September 15 through November 11, BLS reports (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Consumer confidence increased 8.8 percentage points in December, following drastic declines in the past 3 months. The index now stands at 93.7, up from 84.9 in November, according to the New York-based Conference Board. While the index showed an increase for the first time in 6 months, it has yet to reach its pre-September 11 level. It is not clear whether the gain is the start of sustained improvement, or a one-time bounce from the huge post-September 11 plunge. Wachovia Securities Chief Economist David Orr says We call it hopeful, but not conclusive (Daily Labor Report, page A-5). New unemployment claims for the week ending December 22 rose by 7,000, ending a 3-week decline, the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration reports (Daily Labor Report, page D-6). New claims rose 7,000 to 392,000 but the less volatile, more closely watched 4-week moving average fell, dropping 25,250 to 413,250, ETA reported. This was the third consecutive week the average declined (Daily Labor Report, page D-6). Interest in work-at-home options is up since terrorist attacks, advocates say, according to The Washington Post (page E1). Its article, by Amy Joyce, is illustrated with a chart that indicates that about 28.8 million people teleworked from home in 2001. In 1999 about 19 million people did so, and in 2000 about 24 million. Source of the data in the chart is the International Telework Association. Business investment, housing, and consumer confidence all showed surprising and widespread improvement, adding to the evidence that an end to the recession could be in sight, says Robert Gavin in The Wall Street Journal (page A2). Orders for capital equipment rose in November, after a similar gain in October -- a hopeful sign since slumping business spending has been a dominant characteristic of the current recession. Other positives included a big jump in consumer confidence in December, stronger sales of both new and existing homes in November, and a third straight week of relatively slow growth in unemployment insurance claims. Retailers face make-or-break days, says Ron Scherer staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor (http://www.csmonitor.com/2001/1226/p1s1-usec.html). The post-Christmas buying will be crucial in determining whether the American consumer can salvage something from a lackluster holiday season -- and perhaps help resurrect the economy, he contends. Late-season shopping could account for as much as 11 percent of total holiday retail sales. Scherer's article refers its readers to U.S. Economy at a Glance Bureau of Labor Statistics as a link, at its end. Commitment to global sourcing is likely to increase, says Jon E. Hilsenrath, in The Outlook feature of The Wall Street Journal (page 1), despite the fact that the last great period of globalization ended in 1914, when the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo touched off World War I. While prices for many commodities have fallen in the U.S., they have dropped even more abroad, where many economies are more exposed to the manufacturing sector. The price of imported commodities fell 9 percent in the 12 months through November, while the price of products exported by the U.S. fell 3 percent. That means it is becoming even cheaper to source products from overseas. And a strong U.S. dollar accentuates that effect. But in the short term, it looks like globalization has taken a beating. The International Monetary Fund estimates growth in global trade slowed from 12 percent in 2000 to just 1 percent this year, the slowest rate since 1982. For 2002, the IMF projects 2.1 percent growth in global trade. application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, JANUARY 27, 2001: In 1997, a commission appointed by the Senate Finance Commission concluded that the annual Consumer Price Index computed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was probably 1.1 percent too high, and perhaps even more. The Boskin Commission's findings, named after its chairman, Michael Boskin, a Stanford economist who served as President George Bush's chief economic adviser, made headlines in the financial news media and many took its conclusions as gospel, writes Jeff Medrick in Economic Scene of The New York Times (page C2). But perhaps they shouldn't have, contends Medrick. A new comprehensive study sponsored by the National Academy of Sciences and partly commissioned by the Bureau of Labor Statistics raises serious questions about just how much the Boskin Commission or anyone else knows about the true rate of inflation. The study, undertaken by a panel of 13 economists from a wide variety of institutions and led by Charles Schultze of the Brookings Institution restores one's faith in cool-headed economic analysis and measured use of economic theory. It is the report that the Boskin Commission should have done, says Joel Popkin, a Washington economic consultant. The main contention of the Boskin report was that the Labor Department's statistical experts did not fully take into account the improved quality of many products. Jack Triplett, a former BLS economist now with Brookings, says the Boskin Commission analysts of quality increases for cars was simply misinformed. Two government economists, Brent Moulton and Karen Moses, seriously criticize the work on housing and medical care. One of the striking oversights of the Buskin report, I believe, was that it paid almost no attention to areas in which product quality deteriorated, like airline service and education. The most important contribution of the panel, however, was to clarify the central assumptions about the uses of the CPI and other price indexes. But in the early 1960s, a government commission urged BLS to adopt the concept that the index should reflect the cost of maintaining a given standard of living. Thus, if products improve, the standard of living improves, or it costs less to maintain the old standard of living. The Schultze panel therefore recommends a conditional cost of living index that is relatively unambiguous, including quality adjustments but deliberately leaving out issues like congestion, environmental degradation and consumer expectations. The panel makes no precise estimate of whether the CPI overstates or understates the true rate of inflation. But given the questions the panel raises about the commission's central assumptions and its analysis of specific product areas, the claim that the CPI has been and may remain seriously overstated is not nearly as clear cut as many economists have assumed. The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation and a bedrock statistics of the Federal Government, announced each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is a surprisingly frail number, says Jolie Solomon, writing in The New York Times of December 23, page 4 of the Money Business section. The calculations behind it are as much art as they are science. But that has begun to change. Starting next month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will use some of the freshest data it has ever collected. It will readjust the weight of importance of goods and services in the index market basket, and the stores were they are sampled, far more often than it did in the past. Whether these changes will change the official inflation rate significantly is unclear. But it is hard to underestimate the potential impact. The CPI is not just a measure of living costs, it is used to help determine the size of social security checks, veterans benefits, and other federal payments to about 80 million people. It affects how the Federal Reserve sets interest rates and how the Internal Revenue Service adjusts tax brackets. It can even change the size of alimony checks. The changes are meant to better reflect consumer behavior and, in turn, to give policy makers, businesses, and consumers a better tool to gauge how social and technological changes affect inflation. Two income households, for example, mean more spending on takeout food and day care New attitudes toward health may mean less spending on cigarettes and soft drinks. The shift toward work outside the office means more purchases of products like laptop computers and pagers. The rapid growth of grocery warehouses means that consumers are buying more food in bulk and at lower prices. In the past, such trends took years to affect the index because the bureau's market basket was based on consumer buying patterns surveyed 5, 10, or even more years earlier. The current index, for example, is based on consumer behavior in 1993-95. When the bureau releases its January report on the index it will use new relative weights
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, DECEMBER 20, 2001: RELEASED TODAY: Youths who work at an early age are more likely to continue working as they get older. Eighty-five percent of youths who engaged in work activities while age 14 continued to work while age 15, and 90 percent of youths who worked while age 15 continued to work while age 16. These findings are from the first three annual rounds of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, which is sponsored by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The survey includes a nationally representative sample of about 9,000 young men and women who were born during the years 1980 to 1984. These respondents were ages 12 to 17 when first interviewed in 1997, and the oldest were age 20 when interviewed a third time in 1999-2000. The survey provides information on the employment experiences, schooling, family background, social behavior, and other characteristics of these youths. Paid time off is the most common benefit offered employees, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says in a report which found that 79 percent of workers received paid vacations and 75 percent received paid holidays. Fifty-three percent of workers have medical care benefits and the same percentage receive paid sick leave, according to the report. Life insurance was provided to 56 percent of workers (Daily Labor Report, page D-9). Fewer Americans filed new claims for unemployment insurance last week, raising the hope that the flurry of layoffs hitting workers after the terror attacks is abating. It was the jobless rate's third weekly decline in a row. The Labor Department reported Thursday that for the work week ending December 15, new claims for jobless benefits dipped by a seasonally adjusted 11,000 to 384,000, the lowest level since July 28. Jobless claims fell by a sharp 85,000 for the work week ending December 8, and dropped by 13,000 the week before that. In fact, new claims have fallen in seven of the last 8 weeks. Even with these declines, economists warn that the country is still in for a period of rising unemployment (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/199007p-1932398c.html). A survey of social indicators in 30 member countries of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) found that the average retirement age for men has risen slightly, from 62.2 to 62.5. The survey compared data from two periods, 1983-1988 and 1994-1999. The average retirement age was significantly higher in Asian countries. Men in Japan waited the longest, with an average retirement age of 69.1 followed by Korea at 67.1. The average age for men in the United States was 63.9 years in 1983-88, and 65.1 in 1994-99 (Christian Science Monitor). The index of leading economic indicators increased 0.5 percent in November, following a revised 0.1 percent increase in October. The increase brings the index to 109.7 of its 1996 base and hints of a possible recovery in early 2002, according to the Conference Board (Daily Labor Report, page D-8). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment: November 2001 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report, Friday Dec. 21
RELEASED TODAY: Regional and state unemployment rates were generally higher in November than in the prior month. Jobless rates rose in all four regions and 36 states, while only 6 states posted decreases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The national jobless rate increased to 5.7 percent in November. Nonfarm employment decreased in 34 states. Youths who start working young tend to continue working as they get older at higher rate than schoolmates who lack early work experience, according to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. High school is when bonds are formed with the labor market. About 65 percent of working students who were 15 at the start of the 1998-99 school year worked at a job sometime during the school year. And the following summer, 75 percent of 16-year-olds did the same, along with 78 percent of 18-year-olds, according to the first three annual rounds of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth of 1997 (Daily Labor Report, page D-4). Although workers in the United States were subject to an annual average of 1.7 million violent workplace acts from 1993 to 1999, the workplace crime rate fell 44 percent in that period, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the Department of Justice. Workplace homicides also fell during the period, down 39 percent, according to the BLS report Violence in the workplace, 1993-1999. The rate of nonfatal workplace crime fell even faster than the overall crime rate -- down 44 percent in the period -- while the overall workplace crime rate dropped 40 percent. Workplace violence accounted for 18 percent of all violent crime during the 7-year period, the agency said. The report defines nonfatal violence as rape and sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault as measured by the National Crime Victimization Survey. The majority of the reported incidents at work were aggravated or simple assaults, the report said (Daily Labor Report, page A-8). The statistics on workplace violence issued today by the Department of Justice include attacks on police officers, who experienced violent crimes in the workplace at higher rats than all other occupations, with 261 incidents per 1,000 officers. College or university professors were attacked the least, 2 incidents per 1,000. Retail workers were attacked at a rate slightly higher than those in other fields. Cabbies ranked third, behind police officers and corrections officers, with 128 incidents per 1,000 drivers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics contributed information on workplace homicides for the report (The New York Times, page A13). Fewer Americans filed new claims for unemployment insurance, the third weekly decline in a row, raising the hope that the flurry of layoffs hitting workers after the terror attacks is abating. The Labor Department reported that for the workweek ending December 15, new claims for jobless benefits fell by a seasonally adjusted 11,000, to 384,000, the lowest level since July 28 (The Washington Post, page E2; Associated Press, The New York Times, page C2; The Wall Street Journal, page A2; USA Today, page B1; http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0112210213dec21.story). Consumers, after shopping up a storm in October, cut back on their spending in November by 0.7 percent. Incomes fell for the third straight month, as the nation's unemployment rate climbed to a 6-year high. Another report also released by the Commerce Department Friday showed that the U.S. economy turned in its weakest performance in a decade in the third quarter, shrinking at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, an even bigger drop than the government previously estimated. GDP is the total output of goods and services produced within the United States and is considered the broadest measure of the economy's health (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/business/V2114.htm). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2001: RELEASED TODAY: Paid time off was the most prevalent benefit available to workers in private establishments in 1999. Paid vacations were offered to 79 percent of employees and paid holidays to 75 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The new National Compensation Survey (NCS) provides more detailed data on benefits by selected worker and establishment characteristics than previously available. The next release on benefits, scheduled for the spring of 2002, will contain 2000 data with details of benefit plan provisions, as well as incidence information. The nation's on-the-job injury and illness rate dropped 3 percent in 2000, continuing a declining trend that has lowered the rate by nearly one-third since 1995, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics announces. The statistical agency says the occupational injury and illness rate in private industry of 6.1 cases for each 100 full-time workers was a record low since BLS began reporting annual figures in the 1970s. A total of 5.7 million injuries and illnesses were reported for 2000, virtually the same number as the year before, BLS says (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). In the worse year in recent memory for most retailers, there appears to be one small bright spot: the Internet. Many of the biggest store chains, other than the discounters like Wal-Mart, are bracing for sales to be lower than last year. But Internet sales, while growing more slowly than in past years, are expected to increase by about 30 percent, according to recent surveys (The New York Times, page C4). U.S. retailers posted grim results in the second week of December, according to two reports. U.S. chain store sales slipped 0.5 percent during the week ended Saturday, the third straight week of declines, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg reported in their Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot. Separately, the Redbook Retail Sales Average tumbled 4.6 percent in the 2 weeks ended Saturday, compared with the same period in November (Reuters, http://www.latimes.com/business/la-000100487dec19.story?coll+lay%2Dheadlin es%2Dbusiness12/19/01). A key gauge of U.S. economic activity rose for the second consecutive month in November, raising hopes that the worst of the economic downturn is over, the New York-based Conference Board says. It reports its Index of Leading Economic Indicators moved up a better-than-expected 0.5 percent last month to 109.7 following a revised 0.1 percent increase in October. Analysts had forecast a 0.3 percent gain. The recession is not getting more intense, says Conference Board economist Michael Fort. These increases bring the level of this series back to where it was in August (Lisi de Bourbon, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/198095p-1923724c.html). The nation's first economic downturn in 10 years began, like many of its predecessors, with a drop in factory orders along the manufacturing spine that runs from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico. By early this year, the slump had spread to the technology cubicles of Silicon Valley and elsewhere, courtesy of the deflation of the Internet bubble. But in the 3 months since September 11, the recession's narrow early focus has been lost. The downturn has quickly become the broadest on record. Every large industry save health care and housing is shrinking. Almost every state is losing jobs. Unemployment has risen for nearly every group, climbing most sharply for college graduates and others who usually escape the brunt of the downturn. However weakened, today's economy remains much stronger than it was in the 1980's or early 90's. Many fewer people are out of work today than then. Yet most remarkably, the blanket of recession has managed to cover the country despite remaining relatively thin (David Leonhardt, The New York Times, December 16, page A1. An industry by industry discussion is on page A24-25). Employers are eliminating jobs around the country. The economy is officially declared to be in a recession. But child care businesses are expanding, says The New York Times (December 16, Money Business section, page 6). Institutional child care, born out of a profound shift in the labor force that began more than 30 years ago as more mothers went to work, has emerged as a surprisingly resilient industry in tougher times. The number of licensed child-care centers has been increasing for a decade, to 111,506 in 2001 from 86,212 in 1992, according to the Children's Foundation, an advocacy group based in Washington that tracks those numbers. DUE OUT TOMORROW: Employment Experience of Youths: Results from the First Three Years of a Longitudinal Survey application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2001: RELEASED TODAY: A total of 5.7 million injuries and illnesses were reported in private industry workplaces during 2000, resulting in a rate of 6.1 cases per 100 equivalent full-time workers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employers reported about the same number of cases compared with 1999 and a 2 percent increase in the hours worked, reducing the case rate from 6.3 in 1999 to 6.1 in 2000. The rate for 2000 was the lowest since the Bureau began reporting this information in the early 1970s. Health care coverage for workers at small businesses, especially the very smallest, has expanded rapidly in recent years, but some of these gains could be erased by the recession and rising medical costs. A survey of 2,800 employers released last week by William M. Mercer, Inc., a New York human resources consulting firm, found that smaller companies have already begun to shift some health-care costs to workers by increasing insurance deductibles. What's more, Mercer found 13 percent of smaller companies and 6 percent of larger ones mulling an end to company-sponsored coverage. Those firms were considering instead paying workers more money and letting them buy their own coverage -- an expensive and confusing proposition in most cases (The Wall Street Journal, page B4). Housing construction jumped 8.2 percent in November to the highest level since January as builders bet that low mortgage rates could continue to lure prospective buyers. Builders broke ground last month on a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.65 million housing units, an 8.2 percent increase over October's level, the Commerce Department reported today. The bigger-than-expected increase came even as consumer confidence fell to a 7 1/2 year low in November and the employment picture worsened. The nation's unemployment rate jumped from 5.4 percent to 5.7 percent and payrolls fell sharply. Low mortgage rates are a key reason that the housing and construction markets have remained stable even as the national economy has been suffering through a recession since March (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-economy.story?coll=chi%2Dbusine ss%2Dhed). Of the 760,000 or so job cuts announced since September 11, the AFL-CIO estimates that roughly 50 percent have involved union members. That's nearly four times organized labor's 13.5 percent share of the U.S. workforce. The loss comes largely because unions are disproportionately employed in the hard-hit airlines and aerospace industries. And even before September 11, the economic downturn struck first and hardest in manufacturing, another labor stronghold. That, too, whacked tens of thousands of union jobs, says Aaron Bernstein in Business Week (December 17, page 44). A box gives these figures: Hotel workers: nearly 80,000 of the unions 275,000 members have lost their jobs; Machinists: the airlines and Boeing have cut 50,000 of the union's 450,000 jobs -- on top of 20,000 other losses this year. Steelworkers: Mills have laid off 15,000 of 660,000 members this year. A further 6,000 may go if bankrupt LTV liquidates. Public Employees: shrinking city and state budgets are likely to bring more layoffs. DUE OUT TOMORROW: Employee Benefits in Private Industry, 1999 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, DECEMBER 17, 2001: RELEASED TODAY: The 2002-03 editions of the Occupational Outlook Handbook and the Career Guide to Industries were issued today on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Internet site. The print versions of these publications are expected to be available in January, 2002. The Occupational Outlook Handbook, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has been a nationally recognized source of career information for more than 50 years. Lower energy costs kept the consumer price index unchanged in November, despite the largest increase in the index's core rate since January 1996, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The so-called core rate -- or all items excluding food and energy -- increased by 0.4 percent, primarily due to rising tobacco and new vehicle costs, BLS says. It attributed the 0.6 percent rise in new vehicle costs -- the largest increase in more than a decade -- to the return of normal prices after deep discounting in October. Despite the core rate increase and a 1.3 percent increase in other goods and services, a decline of 4.4 percent for energy kept inflation flat (Daily Labor Report, page D-5). The inflation-adusted weekly earnings of most U.S. workers rose by 0.8 percent in November, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the year ended in November, real weekly earnings rose 3.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis and average hourly earnings rose 3.9 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-18). Industrial production declined 0.3 percent in November, a better performance than economists expected, figures released by the Federal Reserve show. Output in the nation's factories, mines, and utilities has fallen 13 out of the last 14 months, edging up 0.1 percent in July. The decline in November brought the industrial production index down to 137.1 percent of its 1992 average. November's decrease was affected by warm weather, which resulted in a 2 percent drop in utilities production (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Industrial production, which has been dropping for more than a year, fell again last month but by much less than had been expected, prompting some analysts to say that the big monthly manufacturing declines may be over, writes John M. Berry in The Washington Post ( Dec. 15, page E1). The Federal Reserve said the output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities fell 0.3 percent last month, compared with declines of 0.9 percent in October and 0.8 percent in September. Exceptionally warm weather causes a large drop in utility output while factory production fell only 0.2 percent. A Commerce Department report provided more evidence that production could improve in coming months. It found that business tocks of unsold goods declined last month at the fastest rate in more than 20 years. The yearlong slump in manufacturing showed signs of ebbing in November, thanks to surging auto sales, while falling energy prices put a lid on inflationary pressures and businesses continued to clear out excess inventories. The Federal Reserve said production at manufacturers, mines, and utilities fell 0.3% in November, its 13th monthly drop in the past 14 months. But the drop was less than the 0.7 percent consensus expectation of Wall Street forecasters, suggesting that the decline in output is easing. Meanwhile, consumer prices were unchanged in November, after falling 0.3 percent in October, as rising prices for housing, automobiles and tobacco offset falling energy prices, the Labor Department said. Separately, the Commerce Department said U.S. business inventories fell 1.4 percent in October from September (The Wall Street Journal, page A2. The Journal's page 1 chart is of the CPI-U, for the year 2001). The biggest economic issue is not when the economic recover will begin. It is whether the robust growth of the late 90's and 2000 was an aberration or the new norm, writes David Leonhardt in The New York Times (page C1). Unemployment is almost certain to rise for much of 2002. In recessions, companies usually continue to cut their costs, including their payrolls, until they are certain that revenues are growing at a healthy rate again. By the time each recession of the last four decades had run its course, the number of jobs fell 1.4 percent to as much as 3 percent, relative to its peak. Through November of this year, the drop was less than 1 percent, suggesting that the United States could lose another 600,000 jobs, or more, next year. That would make the days of 4 percent unemployment -- the norm in the last 90's -- feel far away. U.S. consumer confidence is rising as fears about terrorism fade, preventing a collapse in spending and suggesting the first recession in a decade will be short-lived, reports this week are expected to show. Confidence as measured by the University of Michigan, coming
BLS Daily Report, Thursday Dec. 12
RELEASED TODAY: The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods decreased 0.6 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. This decline followed a 1.6 percent drop in October and a 0.4-percent gain in September. November prices for finished goods other than foods and energy rose 0.2 percent, after posting a 0.5-percent decrease in October. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by intermediate goods manufacturers fell 0.5 percent, following a 1.5-percent decline in the previous month. The crude goods index advanced 7.3 percent in November, after dropping 9.1 percent a month earlier. Prices of imported goods fell more than expected in November, the government reports, signaling that inflation does not yet pose a threat to economic recovery. The import price index dropped 1.6 percent after a record 2.4 percent decline in October, the Labor Department said. Excluding petroleum, prices paid for finished goods and raw materials from abroad fell 0.6 percent, the same as in October. Inflation is down and out for the foreseeable future, said Joshua Shapiro, the chief economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez, Inc., in New York. That reflects excess capacity around the world. The import prices index is the first of three measures of inflation for November. The Labor Department reported on producer prices today and will report on consumer prices on Friday (The New York Times, page C2). The Pacific Northwest goes from high-tech to high jobless, says The New York Times (page A20). On a percentage basis, Oregon has lost more jobs than any other state in the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and its unemployment rate, at 6.5 percent, is now the second highest in the nation -- surpassed only by its next door neighbor, Washington State, at 6.6 percent. The number of Oregonians receiving food stamps jumped 32 percent in September, compared with the same month a year ago, the biggest year-to-year increase since 1974. When a wave of layoffs hit the Northwest's high-tech industry, which has replaced the traditional resource industries, like logging and fishing, as an economic linchpin, the ripple effects were severe. Portland's Silicon forest area has nearly one of every 10 semiconductor jobs in the nation. The article is illustrated with a graph showing the unemployment rates for Washington and Oregon. Source of the data is given as BLS. The weighted average first-year wage increase in newly negotiated contracts in 2001 was 4.3 percent, compared with 3.8 percent in 2000, according to data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs in the first 50 weeks of 2001 for all settlements. The median first-year wage increase for these settlements was 3.5 percent, the same as that negotiated in 2000. The manufacturing industry weighted average increase was 3.1 percent, compared with 3.2 percent in 2000, while nonmanufacturing contracts, excluding construction agreements, showed a weighted average gain of 4.3 percent, compared with 4 percent in 2000 (Daily Labor Report, page D-1, D-2). Retail sales plunged a record 3.7 percent in November, as consumers, buffeted by huge job losses, terrorist attacks and a recession, got the holiday sales season off to a dismal start. The Commerce Department says the record drop in retail sales followed a 6.4 percent upward surge in October, also a record. That big increase was caused by a huge jump in auto sales as Americans responded eagerly to the free financing offers that dealers used to get shoppers back into showrooms following the September 11 terrorist attacks. However, in more positive news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that the number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell by 86,000 last week. It was the biggest decline in weekly jobless claims in 9 years and provided reason to hope that the huge wave of layoffs that occurred following the terrorist attacks may be abating. The big decline left total new claims at 394,000 last week. The country's first recession in a decade is keeping a lid on inflation. A third report showed that wholesale prices fell for a second consecutive month, dropping 0.6 percent in November after a bigger 1.6 percent plunge in October. The November decline was led by another big drop in energy prices, which offset rising prices for autos and tobacco. Outside of food and energy, the core rate of wholesale inflation was up 0.2 percent in November after having dropped 0.5 percent in October. The concern is that the near 800,000 job layoffs that have occurred in the past 2 months will trigger sharp cuts in spending and make the current downturn deeper and more severe than the mild recession most economists are now forecasting (Martin Crutsinger, Associated Press, http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-economy.story?coll=chi%2Dbusine ss%2Dhed). Predicting that