[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Bill,
Could you give us the lowdown on the recent election results.
From the paltry news we get here I understand Labour was just
short of a majority and was expected to form a coalition with the
Greens and one other party which I had not heard of.
It is interesting. When NZ was doing its neoliberal dance, the
media here gave it almost daily coverage of the triumph of the right.
Now that Labour is back (more or less) in the saddle, we get one
inch of copy in the national press, nothing in the local press, and
complete silence on the electronic media.
So what's up, Bill?
It's messy (hence my time to reply).
New Zealand-watchers may recall that in 1999 fifteen years of purist but
increasingly moribund neo-liberal governments (starting with a Labour
government in 1984) were voted out in favour of a Labour-Alliance
coalition government. The new government relied on the Green Party
(which has progressive social policies as well as its environmental
core) for a majority in votes of confidence and supply. Labour, led by
Helen Clark, had reinvented itself during the 90's a little to the left
of Tony Blair. The Alliance had been formed by left social democrat
deserters from Labour led by former Labour Party president and Member of
Parliament (MP), Jim Anderton. They formed a left grouping of several
parties, including initially the Greens, but also the Democrats (former
Social Credit) and Mana Motuhake (a Maori party).
The coalition government was dominated by the Labour party (49 seats in
the 120 seat Parliament), the Alliance having 10 and Greens 7 in a
proportional representation system. It continued fiscal policies which
differed very little from the previous 15 years - an independent Reserve
Bank, budget surpluses, reducing government expenditure as a proportion
of GDP, no new taxes (other than a small rise on the top tax rates). It
did some good things - some planned (re-nationalisation of the accident
compensation system, paid parental leave, repeal of the anti-union and
anti-collectivist Employment Contracts Act, increased investment in
state-owned housing and income-related rents, elected district health
boards, creation of people's bank, economic development programmes),
some unplanned (for example renationalising the national airline when it
was on the point of bankruptcy).
However the Alliance membership, and some of its MPs became increasingly
frustrated at the slow progress and the unwillingness of Anderton to
publicly claim responsibility for some of the gains forced by the
Alliance (such as more generous parental leave and a higher minimum
wage) and to publicly put pressure on Labour to move further. The
Alliance was losing support electorally (down from 8% in 1999 to around
4% in opinion polls, losing votes to Labour and the Greens. Note that 5%
is a crucial benchmark; below that a party does not get representation
in the New Zealand Parliament unless they win an electorate MP). They
felt imprisoned by Labour's unwillingness to raise taxes to finance new
social programmes, and increasingly aghast at its enthusiastic pursuit
of free trade agreements with Singapore (signed), Hong Kong (in
negotiation), the US (dreamed of) and others. Finally, the war against
Afghanistan was the breaking point. Anderton pressured the caucus at
short notice to support Labour in sending New Zealand SAS (commando)
troops. That brought a furious reaction from rank and file members, many
of whom are long standing members of New Zealand's strong peace
movement. The result was a split in the Alliance with six MPs following
Anderton into a new Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition Party, whose
membership comes largely from the Democrats, and three continuing the
Alliance led by the very able Laila Harre with a programme somewhat more
to the left.
Despite this, the coalition government was a very popular one. Polls in
early 2002 showed over 50% of voters supporting Labour, with the Greens
over 10%, but the Alliance being punished for its self-destruction with
less than 3% between the two splinter parties.
An early election was called in July, Clark using the Alliance split as
an excuse. Labour increased its vote from 39% to 41% (but well below the
absolute majority it campaigned for). Good economic times (a low New
Zealand dollar, high commodity prices and good growing weather for our
important agricultural sector) and a disastrously inept performance by
the main conservative party, the National Party meant that major issues
such as the economy were barely debated. Instead the biggest single
issue was whether a moratorium preventing field trials of genetic
engineering should be extended. Labour vehemently opposed it, but the
Greens made it a bottom line issue required for their support of a new
government. A GE cover-up scandal exposed during the campaign bruised
both parties however. The Greens gained only one seat (rising
