Re: [Biofuel] The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's Lesson for Real Sustainability

2011-06-13 Thread Keith Addison
Hi Dawie

... the nature of walkability is not yet adequately understood...

I'd appreciate it if you'd expound a bit on the nature of 
walkability, I'm sure I wouldn't be the only one.

Previous refs here:

Re: [Biofuel] The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's Lesson for 
Real Sustainability
Dawie Coetzee
Sun, 12 Jun 2011
http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg76045.html

Re: [Biofuel] NEWS - Clean transportation alternative
2011/04/20
Dawie Coetzee
http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg75873.html

Re: [Biofuel] NEWS - Clean transportation alternative
2011/04/22
Dawie Coetzee
http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg75885.html

Also this:

[biofuel] The Green Bandwagon
2004/08/11
Keith Addison
http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg37245.html

All best

Keith


I also wonder what exactly is meant by emissions increasing, and how it was
measured.

However, being no great fan of EVs and having a positive abhorrence of robotic
and abstruse hybrids, I am more concerned that statistics that do not surprise
me in the least are indeed genuine. I should, for instance, like to have some
supporting statistics on Swedish roads development, on Swedish vehicle-buying
patterns, on Swedish vehicle use patterns. For I am convinced that 
the tendency
to opaqueness and passivity in automotive technology is a primary factor that
drives vehicle-dependence.

Perhaps not immediately related, but I have feared a suburban 
backlash in the
urban design profession for some time. The primary motivation would be a
dialectical sense of fashion, i.e. everyone has been advocating 
walkable cities
forever; let's be really radical and propose Los Angeles c. 1958 - and there
the idea that electric vehicles make everything OK might be an 
enabling factor.
That would be a tragedy, as the nature of walkability is not yet adequately
understood; but it sits all too well with the aesthetic approach to 
urban design
according to which the unwalkable city is undesirable not from any 
consideration
of practical ecology but because it is quintessentially American and, as
everyone knows, Americans have atrocious taste ...

Best regards

Dawie Coetzee


From: Darryl McMahon [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: sustainablelorgbiofuel@sustainablelists.org
Sent: Sun, 12 June, 2011 15:20:42
Subject: Re: [Biofuel] The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's 
Lesson for Real
Sustainability

Something is rotten in the state of Sweden.  Or not.  But I do smell a
dead rat in here somewhere.

We have studies from the U.S. that switching from petro-fuel to
electricity for transportation reduces emissions, including greenhouse
gases, even when the electricity comes entirely from coal-fired plants.

However, in Sweden, the primary energy sources are hydro and nuclear
(over 90% of the generation from those two sources).  Fossil sources
produce considerably less than 10% of the electricity mix.  (This
document is a bit dated, but presents the information nicely in a graph
on page 2.
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy_policy/doc/factsheets/mix/mix_se_en.pdf)

So, Sweden is switching from conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles
to electric and plug-in hybrids, charging from a grid that is over 90%
supplied from essentially zero-GHG sources, but the emissions are going
up?  And, the actual market penetration is still trivially small - I'm
guessing well below 1% of the total road-going fleet in the country.
Doesn't pass the smell test.  Unfortunately, the article doesn't bother
to cite the evidence used to support it's conclusion.  My suspicion:
the Swedish 'transportation sector' includes something other than
private cars that might be driving the numbers up (e.g., ships burning
bunker C crude).

Actually, after a very limited Web search, I could not find anything
credible that looked like the 'evidence' for the article - just lots of
copy-cat items that also did not provide citations for the desired data.

I did find this, dated January 2011:
http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/change-in-total-ghg-emissions,
which shows Sweden's transportation GHG emissions going up 9% from 1990
to 2008.  The catch is that Sweden did not get serious about EV
incentives until about 2008-2009, a time period not covered by the data
for this report.

Here's someone else's response (found while searching for the 'evidence').

http://dagblog.com/link/what-if-green-products-make-us-pollute-more-10581 
(check

the comments by quinn)

Darryl

On 11/06/2011 1:10 PM, Keith Addison wrote:
  http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/06/10-3

  Published on Friday, June 10, 2011 by CommonDreams.org

  The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's Lesson for Real Sustainability

  by Firmin DeBrabander

  What if electric cars made pollution worse, not better? What if they
  increased greenhouse gas emissions instead of decreasing them?
  Preposterous you say? Well, consider what's happened

Re: [Biofuel] The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's Lesson for Real Sustainability

2011-06-13 Thread Keith Addison
Hi Darryl, thanks.

First, belated congratulations for the runner-up award for The 
Emperor's New Hydrogen Economy:

Personal news item:
My book, The Emperor's New Hydrogen Economy, won Runner-up in the
international Green Book Festival Awards non-fiction category,
beating out entries by David Suzuki and Ron and Lisa Beres.

I'd hoped to update the review at JtF by now, but I'll do it soon, 
it's top of the list.

Here's someone else's response (found while searching for the 'evidence').

http://dagblog.com/link/what-if-green-products-make-us-pollute-more-10581 
(check
the comments by quinn)

Yes, fire him. I think that's worth posting in full:

http://dagblog.com/link/what-if-green-products-make-us-pollute-more-10581

Bunk. The right-wing think tanks have won another round, by 
bellyaching about pseudo-intellectual concepts like the Jevons 
effect widely enough that it catches on even in articles like this 
one.

I mean, it's a clever idea, as long as you don't think about it too 
long. At which point, it starts to sound absurd, even laughable. If 
something gets cheaper, I'm going to spend ALL my savings on getting 
more of that thing?? SOME, yes. But it just gets on its face absurd 
- as well as becoming entirely free from that nasty evidence thing 
- when it's pushed to claim I'm gonna claw back most or all of the 
savings.

   by quinn esq 6/5/2011 - 3:05 pm reply

As for the rest of the article, it's impressive just how full of 
shit it is. It reads like an academic's plea to fire me.

1st off, Sweden has apparently seen rising transportation emissions, 
even after all its good car stuff. Well, except that the latest 
figures I've seen show no such thing. Here's the latest - December 
2010 - annual report by Sweden to the UN under Kyoto. Which, near as 
I can read it, (WArning, 2 MB PDF file) shows (page 61) that 
passenger car emissions are down since 1990, while FREIGHT transport 
is up. Which - sorry - does not show that passenger vehicles 
becoming greener means people are flooding to the suburbs or 
whatever. If they rose a couple of % from 2009 to 2010, sorry but 
I'd suspect that's the recession and recovery, not some grand 
Devonsian shift.

Also, here's the announcement, entitled, Record Reduction in 
Swedish Emissions from Dec/2010. You can read about the disastrous 
situation that Sweden's intensive pursuit of greening has gotten 
them into, in the following paragraph, Swedish greenhouse gas 
emissions are declining substantially. In 2009, emissions fell by 
over 3.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents, the largest 
reduction in any single year to date* . This means that Sweden's 
total emissions have now dropped by a total of around 17% since 
1990, and levels have never been lower.

You know, they only emit 5.6 tonnes per person now (abut a quarter 
of the US and Canada.) And their total emissions are down 17% since 
1990, even though the population has grown by 11%. Not bad.

   by quinn esq 6/5/2011 - 3:24 pm reply

I think I'll keep going on this one, as it really does deserve a 
proper burial. Buddy says, Based on Sweden's experience with green 
cars, it's daunting to imagine their possible impact here. Who can 
doubt that they'll likely inspire Americans to make longer commutes 
to work and live even further out in the exurbs - bringing 
development, blacktop and increased emissions with them?

Now, let's stop and think about this.

1st, electric cars DO create technical pressures, but more likely to 
live within their limitations. The biggest of which is... their 
shorter range. Not longer, shorter.

2nd electric cars will clean up the tailpipe emissions issue as well 
as reduce a huge amount of urban noise. Which will make urban areas 
MORE liveable, not less. etc.

   by quinn esq 6/5/2011 - 3:24 pm reply

After mangling the Swedish experience - and providing absolutely NO 
links or sources or figures - buddy goes after the Chinese. Ooh, 
always good, the Chiiineeese. Here:

American industry hungrily targets the rising Chinese consumer 
class. For the sake of the planet, we better hope it doesn't get its 
way. Consider: China's car ownership rate is about one-sixth that of 
the U.S. If China achieves rates comparable to the U.S., that would 
put an additional 800 million cars on the road. And that's just 
China. Even if we somehow succeeded in making China's fleet 
super-efficient, it would still be more than the planet can 
handle Of course, the Chinese will also want more electronics, 
clothes, meat, processed foods, bigger houses. In short, we can bet 
that the rising Chinese middle class will want something close to 
what we have. And why shouldn't they?... Everyone is betting, hoping 
(assuming?) that technology will eventually help us deliver the 
American dream worldwide with no environmental impact. But we may 
run out of planet by the time that day comes

So. Technology can't save us. A fabulous phrase. 

Re: [Biofuel] The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's Lesson for Real Sustainability

2011-06-12 Thread Darryl McMahon
Something is rotten in the state of Sweden.  Or not.  But I do smell a 
dead rat in here somewhere.

We have studies from the U.S. that switching from petro-fuel to 
electricity for transportation reduces emissions, including greenhouse 
gases, even when the electricity comes entirely from coal-fired plants.

However, in Sweden, the primary energy sources are hydro and nuclear 
(over 90% of the generation from those two sources).  Fossil sources 
produce considerably less than 10% of the electricity mix.  (This 
document is a bit dated, but presents the information nicely in a graph 
on page 2.
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy_policy/doc/factsheets/mix/mix_se_en.pdf)

So, Sweden is switching from conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles 
to electric and plug-in hybrids, charging from a grid that is over 90% 
supplied from essentially zero-GHG sources, but the emissions are going 
up?  And, the actual market penetration is still trivially small - I'm 
guessing well below 1% of the total road-going fleet in the country. 
Doesn't pass the smell test.  Unfortunately, the article doesn't bother 
to cite the evidence used to support it's conclusion.  My suspicion: 
the Swedish 'transportation sector' includes something other than 
private cars that might be driving the numbers up (e.g., ships burning 
bunker C crude).

Actually, after a very limited Web search, I could not find anything 
credible that looked like the 'evidence' for the article - just lots of 
copy-cat items that also did not provide citations for the desired data.

I did find this, dated January 2011: 
http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/change-in-total-ghg-emissions, 
which shows Sweden's transportation GHG emissions going up 9% from 1990 
to 2008.  The catch is that Sweden did not get serious about EV 
incentives until about 2008-2009, a time period not covered by the data 
for this report.

Here's someone else's response (found while searching for the 'evidence').

http://dagblog.com/link/what-if-green-products-make-us-pollute-more-10581 
(check 
the comments by quinn)

Darryl

On 11/06/2011 1:10 PM, Keith Addison wrote:
 http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/06/10-3

 Published on Friday, June 10, 2011 by CommonDreams.org

 The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's Lesson for Real Sustainability

 by Firmin DeBrabander

 What if electric cars made pollution worse, not better? What if they
 increased greenhouse gas emissions instead of decreasing them?
 Preposterous you say? Well, consider what's happened in Sweden.

 Through generous subsidies, Sweden aggressively pushed its citizens
 to trade in their cars for energy efficient replacements (hybrids,
 clean diesel vehicles, cars that run on ethanol). Sweden has been so
 successful in this initiative that it leads the world in per capita
 sales of 'green cars.' To everyone's surprise, however, greenhouse
 gas emissions from Sweden's transportation sector are up.

 Or perhaps we should not be so surprised after all. What do you
 expect when you put people in cars they feel good about driving (or
 at least less guilty), which are also cheap to buy and run?
 Naturally, they drive them more. So much more, in fact, that they
 obliterate energy gains made by increased fuel efficiency.

 We need to pay attention to this as GM and Nissan roll out their new
 green cars to great fanfare. The Chevy Volt, a hybrid with a
 lithium-ion battery, can go 35 miles on electric power alone (after
 charging over night, for example), and GM brags on its website that
 if you limit your daily driving to that distance, you can commute
 gas-free for an average of $1.50 a day. The Volt's price is listed
 at a very reasonable $33K (if you qualify for the maximum $7500 in
 tax credits). The fully electric Nissan Leaf is advertized for an
 even more reasonable $26K (with qualifying tax credits, naturally).
 What a deal-and it's good for you, too, the carmakers want you to
 know. As GM helpfully points out on its website, Electricity is a
 cleaner source of power.

 Sweden is a model of sustainability innovation, while the US is the
 most voracious consumer on the planet. Based on Sweden's experience
 with green cars, it's daunting to imagine their possible impact here.
 Who can doubt that they'll likely inspire Americans to make longer
 commutes to work, live even further out in the exurbs, bringing
 development, blacktop and increased emissions with them?

 In its current state, the green revolution is largely devoted to the
 effort to provide consumers with the products they have always loved,
 but now in affordable energy efficient versions. The thinking seems
 to be that through this gradual exchange, we can reduce our
 collective carbon footprint. Clearly, however, this approach is
 doomed if we don't reform our absurd consumption habits, which are so
 out-of-whack that they risk undoing any environmental gains we might
 make. Indeed, we are such ardent, addicted consumers that we take
 efficiency gains 

Re: [Biofuel] The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's Lesson for Real Sustainability

2011-06-12 Thread Dawie Coetzee
I also wonder what exactly is meant by emissions increasing, and how it was 
measured.

However, being no great fan of EVs and having a positive abhorrence of robotic 
and abstruse hybrids, I am more concerned that statistics that do not surprise 
me in the least are indeed genuine. I should, for instance, like to have some 
supporting statistics on Swedish roads development, on Swedish vehicle-buying 
patterns, on Swedish vehicle use patterns. For I am convinced that the tendency 
to opaqueness and passivity in automotive technology is a primary factor that 
drives vehicle-dependence.

Perhaps not immediately related, but I have feared a suburban backlash in the 
urban design profession for some time. The primary motivation would be a 
dialectical sense of fashion, i.e. everyone has been advocating walkable 
cities 
forever; let's be really radical and propose Los Angeles c. 1958 - and there 
the idea that electric vehicles make everything OK might be an enabling factor. 
That would be a tragedy, as the nature of walkability is not yet adequately 
understood; but it sits all too well with the aesthetic approach to urban 
design 
according to which the unwalkable city is undesirable not from any 
consideration 
of practical ecology but because it is quintessentially American and, as 
everyone knows, Americans have atrocious taste ...

Best regards

Dawie Coetzee







From: Darryl McMahon [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: sustainablelorgbiofuel@sustainablelists.org
Sent: Sun, 12 June, 2011 15:20:42
Subject: Re: [Biofuel] The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's Lesson for Real 
Sustainability

Something is rotten in the state of Sweden.  Or not.  But I do smell a 
dead rat in here somewhere.

We have studies from the U.S. that switching from petro-fuel to 
electricity for transportation reduces emissions, including greenhouse 
gases, even when the electricity comes entirely from coal-fired plants.

However, in Sweden, the primary energy sources are hydro and nuclear 
(over 90% of the generation from those two sources).  Fossil sources 
produce considerably less than 10% of the electricity mix.  (This 
document is a bit dated, but presents the information nicely in a graph 
on page 2.
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy_policy/doc/factsheets/mix/mix_se_en.pdf)

So, Sweden is switching from conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles 
to electric and plug-in hybrids, charging from a grid that is over 90% 
supplied from essentially zero-GHG sources, but the emissions are going 
up?  And, the actual market penetration is still trivially small - I'm 
guessing well below 1% of the total road-going fleet in the country. 
Doesn't pass the smell test.  Unfortunately, the article doesn't bother 
to cite the evidence used to support it's conclusion.  My suspicion: 
the Swedish 'transportation sector' includes something other than 
private cars that might be driving the numbers up (e.g., ships burning 
bunker C crude).

Actually, after a very limited Web search, I could not find anything 
credible that looked like the 'evidence' for the article - just lots of 
copy-cat items that also did not provide citations for the desired data.

I did find this, dated January 2011: 
http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/change-in-total-ghg-emissions, 
which shows Sweden's transportation GHG emissions going up 9% from 1990 
to 2008.  The catch is that Sweden did not get serious about EV 
incentives until about 2008-2009, a time period not covered by the data 
for this report.

Here's someone else's response (found while searching for the 'evidence').

http://dagblog.com/link/what-if-green-products-make-us-pollute-more-10581 
(check 

the comments by quinn)

Darryl

On 11/06/2011 1:10 PM, Keith Addison wrote:
 http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/06/10-3

 Published on Friday, June 10, 2011 by CommonDreams.org

 The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's Lesson for Real Sustainability

 by Firmin DeBrabander

 What if electric cars made pollution worse, not better? What if they
 increased greenhouse gas emissions instead of decreasing them?
 Preposterous you say? Well, consider what's happened in Sweden.

 Through generous subsidies, Sweden aggressively pushed its citizens
 to trade in their cars for energy efficient replacements (hybrids,
 clean diesel vehicles, cars that run on ethanol). Sweden has been so
 successful in this initiative that it leads the world in per capita
 sales of 'green cars.' To everyone's surprise, however, greenhouse
 gas emissions from Sweden's transportation sector are up.

 Or perhaps we should not be so surprised after all. What do you
 expect when you put people in cars they feel good about driving (or
 at least less guilty), which are also cheap to buy and run?
 Naturally, they drive them more. So much more, in fact, that they
 obliterate energy gains made by increased fuel efficiency.

 We need to pay attention to this as GM and Nissan roll out their new
 green cars to great

Re: [Biofuel] The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's Lesson for Real Sustainability

2011-06-12 Thread Jan Warnqvist
Hello all, sincerely Swedish I have never heard of this article. Neither 
have I heard any of the conclusions in the article. The truth is that people 
driving flexible fuel cars fill with gasoline if the gasoline is cheaper 
than the E85 (15% gasoline, 85% ethanol). It is also true that the diesel 
car sector has been growing rapidly during the past years. But that was from 
a very low level, seen from European standards. How that can increase the 
CO2 is a riddle. The big CO2 cut is however in  heat production. The heat 
power plants producing hot water for houses and flats are nowadays almost 
exclusively burring CO2 neutral fuels, such as waste vegetable oils.
I do not think that the article has been published in Sweden, even though 
there are, even here, strong forces aiming to turn the energy consumption 
back to only fossil fuels and - in worst case- nuclear power. I suppose they 
are fighting that battle in other countries too.

Jan W
- Original Message - 
From: Darryl McMahon [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: sustainablelorgbiofuel@sustainablelists.org
Sent: Sunday, June 12, 2011 3:20 PM
Subject: Re: [Biofuel] The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's Lesson for 
Real Sustainability


 Something is rotten in the state of Sweden.  Or not.  But I do smell a
 dead rat in here somewhere.

 We have studies from the U.S. that switching from petro-fuel to
 electricity for transportation reduces emissions, including greenhouse
 gases, even when the electricity comes entirely from coal-fired plants.

 However, in Sweden, the primary energy sources are hydro and nuclear
 (over 90% of the generation from those two sources).  Fossil sources
 produce considerably less than 10% of the electricity mix.  (This
 document is a bit dated, but presents the information nicely in a graph
 on page 2.
 http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy_policy/doc/factsheets/mix/mix_se_en.pdf)

 So, Sweden is switching from conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles
 to electric and plug-in hybrids, charging from a grid that is over 90%
 supplied from essentially zero-GHG sources, but the emissions are going
 up?  And, the actual market penetration is still trivially small - I'm
 guessing well below 1% of the total road-going fleet in the country.
 Doesn't pass the smell test.  Unfortunately, the article doesn't bother
 to cite the evidence used to support it's conclusion.  My suspicion:
 the Swedish 'transportation sector' includes something other than
 private cars that might be driving the numbers up (e.g., ships burning
 bunker C crude).

 Actually, after a very limited Web search, I could not find anything
 credible that looked like the 'evidence' for the article - just lots of
 copy-cat items that also did not provide citations for the desired data.

 I did find this, dated January 2011:
 http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/change-in-total-ghg-emissions,
 which shows Sweden's transportation GHG emissions going up 9% from 1990
 to 2008.  The catch is that Sweden did not get serious about EV
 incentives until about 2008-2009, a time period not covered by the data
 for this report.

 Here's someone else's response (found while searching for the 'evidence').

 http://dagblog.com/link/what-if-green-products-make-us-pollute-more-10581 
 (check
 the comments by quinn)

 Darryl

 On 11/06/2011 1:10 PM, Keith Addison wrote:
 http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/06/10-3

 Published on Friday, June 10, 2011 by CommonDreams.org

 The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's Lesson for Real Sustainability

 by Firmin DeBrabander

 What if electric cars made pollution worse, not better? What if they
 increased greenhouse gas emissions instead of decreasing them?
 Preposterous you say? Well, consider what's happened in Sweden.

 Through generous subsidies, Sweden aggressively pushed its citizens
 to trade in their cars for energy efficient replacements (hybrids,
 clean diesel vehicles, cars that run on ethanol). Sweden has been so
 successful in this initiative that it leads the world in per capita
 sales of 'green cars.' To everyone's surprise, however, greenhouse
 gas emissions from Sweden's transportation sector are up.

 Or perhaps we should not be so surprised after all. What do you
 expect when you put people in cars they feel good about driving (or
 at least less guilty), which are also cheap to buy and run?
 Naturally, they drive them more. So much more, in fact, that they
 obliterate energy gains made by increased fuel efficiency.

 We need to pay attention to this as GM and Nissan roll out their new
 green cars to great fanfare. The Chevy Volt, a hybrid with a
 lithium-ion battery, can go 35 miles on electric power alone (after
 charging over night, for example), and GM brags on its website that
 if you limit your daily driving to that distance, you can commute
 gas-free for an average of $1.50 a day. The Volt's price is listed
 at a very reasonable $33K (if you qualify for the maximum $7500 in
 tax credits). The fully electric Nissan

[Biofuel] The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's Lesson for Real Sustainability

2011-06-11 Thread Keith Addison
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/06/10-3

Published on Friday, June 10, 2011 by CommonDreams.org

The Green Revolution Backfires: Sweden's Lesson for Real Sustainability

by Firmin DeBrabander

What if electric cars made pollution worse, not better? What if they 
increased greenhouse gas emissions instead of decreasing them? 
Preposterous you say? Well, consider what's happened in Sweden.

Through generous subsidies, Sweden aggressively pushed its citizens 
to trade in their cars for energy efficient replacements (hybrids, 
clean diesel vehicles, cars that run on ethanol). Sweden has been so 
successful in this initiative that it leads the world in per capita 
sales of 'green cars.' To everyone's surprise, however, greenhouse 
gas emissions from Sweden's transportation sector are up.

Or perhaps we should not be so surprised after all. What do you 
expect when you put people in cars they feel good about driving (or 
at least less guilty), which are also cheap to buy and run? 
Naturally, they drive them more. So much more, in fact, that they 
obliterate energy gains made by increased fuel efficiency.

We need to pay attention to this as GM and Nissan roll out their new 
green cars to great fanfare. The Chevy Volt, a hybrid with a 
lithium-ion battery, can go 35 miles on electric power alone (after 
charging over night, for example), and GM brags on its website that 
if you limit your daily driving to that distance, you can commute 
gas-free for an average of $1.50 a day. The Volt's price is listed 
at a very reasonable $33K (if you qualify for the maximum $7500 in 
tax credits). The fully electric Nissan Leaf is advertized for an 
even more reasonable $26K (with qualifying tax credits, naturally). 
What a deal-and it's good for you, too, the carmakers want you to 
know. As GM helpfully points out on its website, Electricity is a 
cleaner source of power.

Sweden is a model of sustainability innovation, while the US is the 
most voracious consumer on the planet. Based on Sweden's experience 
with green cars, it's daunting to imagine their possible impact here. 
Who can doubt that they'll likely inspire Americans to make longer 
commutes to work, live even further out in the exurbs, bringing 
development, blacktop and increased emissions with them?

In its current state, the green revolution is largely devoted to the 
effort to provide consumers with the products they have always loved, 
but now in affordable energy efficient versions. The thinking seems 
to be that through this gradual exchange, we can reduce our 
collective carbon footprint. Clearly, however, this approach is 
doomed if we don't reform our absurd consumption habits, which are so 
out-of-whack that they risk undoing any environmental gains we might 
make. Indeed, we are such ardent, addicted consumers that we take 
efficiency gains as license to consume even more!

We need to address consumption fast because-news alert-the current 
consumer class on earth barely amounts to 1 billion people (if that), 
but 2 billion and counting eagerly wait in the wings.

American industry hungrily targets the rising Chinese consumer class. 
For the sake of the planet, we better hope it doesn't get its way. 
Consider: China currently has a car ownership rate approximately 
one-sixth that of the US. If China achieves car ownership rates 
comparable to the US, that would put an additional 800 million cars 
on the road. And that's just China. Even if we somehow succeeded in 
making China's fleet super efficient, it would still be more than the 
planet can handle.

Of course, cars are only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to 
Chinese consumer dreams. They will also want more electronics, 
clothes, meat, processed foods-bigger houses. In short, we can bet 
that the rising Chinese middle class will want something close to 
what we have. And why shouldn't they? We have been showcasing our 
middle class comfort worldwide for years through our vast media 
exports. Everyone is betting, hoping-assuming?-that technology will 
eventually help us deliver the American dream worldwide with no 
environmental impact. But clearly, we may run out of planet by the 
time that day comes. Even the American dream in an 'energy efficient 
format' is likely too much for the earth to handle.

If this is chilling-and it should be-you might wonder, what are our 
options? Justice demands that we cannot prevent, much less discourage 
the growing global consumer class from having the consumer goods we 
currently enjoy. Real change starts with us then, and I'm afraid to 
say, radical change is in order. We must figure out a way to consume 
less, which means driving less, shopping less, eating less meat 
(which the UN estimates is responsible for a fifth of all greenhouse 
gases), and conserving food and energy. This means essentially 
rethinking our suburban-sprawling, fast-food-gorging, shopaholic 
society. We must model for the world the changes we hope everyone 
will make to