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Walker's World: Easternizing Europe? 

By Martin Walker

UPI Chief International Correspondent

PRAGUE, Czech Republic, April 28 (UPI) -- Already members in good
standing of 
the NATO alliance, by the end of this year the Czech Republic and its
Polish 
and Hungarian neighbors confidently expect that they will get the nod to
join 
the European Union.

And in this Czech capital of Prague in November, a NATO summit is
expected to 
give a formal welcome to seven more new members of the alliance -- all
of 
them formerly part of the old Soviet empire and Warsaw Pact.

Thirteen years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Cold War's orphan 
nations finally come home to the West.

That, at least, is the theory. And here in Prague, a center of European 
civilization since the 14th century rule of King Charles IV who built
the 
ancient bridge and university that bear his name, it is easy to feel
that the 
Cold War division of Europe was a hideous aberration. Europe is at last 
becoming, as the first President George Bush pledged in 1989, "whole and

free."

And yet a shadow of unease is starting to drift across this grand and
moving 
vision.

Partly it stems from the besetting weakness of the post-Communist states
and 
governments of Eastern Europe and the fragility of their new democratic 
institutions. Partly it stems from the spread of organized crime, much
of it 
run by the Russian Mafia. The feeble defenses that Eastern Europe's 
demoralized police and customs services can muster are already allowing
these 
criminal systems to infiltrate Western Europe. 

"We dreamed for so long of the Westernization of Eastern Europe, but
unless 
we take great care, we could see the creeping Easternization of Western 
Europe," warns Ognyan Minchev, director of Bulgaria's Institute for 
International Studies, who also chairs Bulgaria's chapter of
Transparency 
International, the anti-corruption watchdog.

"The deep-rooted state and official corruption in the weak state
institutions 
of Eastern Europe threaten to infect the Western businesses that have 
invested there, and the Western accounting firms that audit Eastern
Europe's 
privatized industries," Minchev adds. "Instead of the invisible hand of
the 
free market, we have the visible fist of the Mafia and corruption."

American business people and officials in Eastern Europe voice similar 
concerns. Ralph Johnson, former U.S. Ambassador to Slovakia, warns that 
corrosive effect of corruption is spreading, with some governments using

local intelligence services to bring pressure on political opponents,
while 
civil society and the media "are still too weak to hold governments 
accountable."

"There are two new developments of particular concern," Johnson notes.
"Some 
outside and Western businesses are adopting the local 'rules' of doing 
business -- which means corruption spreads. And we are starting to see 
organized crime getting a political agenda. This is ominous," he added, 
citing mounting Russian influence in Eastern Europe's energy and
pipeline 
networks.

Much of the worry comes from the faltering state of the post-Communist 
economies. The average income per head of the current 15 members of the
EU is 
just over $20,000 a year. The average income of the 10 candidate states
of 
Eastern Europe is less than a third of the EU level.

The EU is about to take in the poor relations, and faces a massive
challenge 
of aid and development for years and probably decades to come. Whatever
mood 
there might be of joyous the reunion of a cruelly divided European 
civilization is darkened by the severity of the task ahead, as if the
United 
States were suddenly to merge with a couple of Mexicos.

But the darkest shadow of all is the nagging fear that just as the
Eastern 
Europeans finally achieve their long strategic ambition to join the NATO

alliance, it may no longer be quite the staunch security guarantee they
had 
sought for so long.

Plans to give Russia a privileged place -- although not full membership
- in 
NATO councils deeply troubled many Eastern European participants at a 
security conference organized here over the weekend by the Prague
Institute 
of National Security.

"It would be a cruel irony if Eastern Europe finally joins NATO just as 
Russia's presence, and the replacement of a hard military alliance with
a 
loose talking shop, makes NATO less worth joining," notes Petr Vancura, 
director of the Prague Institute. 

"And yet NATO's new members, Czechs and Poles and Hungarians, bear much
of 
the responsibility because they have failed to modernize their armed
forces 
in a way which add much to NATO's military capability. Moreover, the low

level of defense spending by most European NATO members means that the 
alliance is losing military credibility in the United States," adds
Vancura, 
formerly a senior Czech diplomat in Washington. 

"We are at risk here not just of throwing away the fruits of victory in
the 
Cold War, but of diluting beyond recognition the very institution --
NATO -- 
that won it."

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