Re: California Recall
--- [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I'd wager $10 that Davis will be recalled--and then win reelection. David Does the recall law permit the incumbent to be on the ballot for the new governor if he loses the recall? Fred = [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: California Recall
--- fabio guillermo rojas [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: It seems that optimal strategy for Democrats is to choose one candidate and pay off the others not to run, and hope the GOP vote is split. Fabio If Governor Davis is recalled, the election for the next California governor will be won by a plurality. With many candidates on the ballot, a well-organized group can win the plurality even if they have a small total portion of the vote. So far, the Democrats do not want to put up a major candidate because that would increase the vote to recall the incumbent. So the optimal strategy for the Democrats would be for Davis to win the recall election, thus they are avoiding providing an attractive Democrat alternative. Fred Foldvary = [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: California Recall
Schwartzeneger will not run, so Riordan, a Republican 2002 primary-election candidate, will run, and is most likely to win the plurality race. Negative ads knocked him off the general election in 2002, but will not work so easily this time. What's the predicted outcome? Fabio = [EMAIL PROTECTED]
California Recall
Ok - let's put game theory to the test: what is the normal form of declaring your candidcay for California governer-game? What's the predicted outcome? And what would Robin Hanson wager on the answer? Fabio
Re: California Recall
In a message dated 7/28/03 9:10:55 PM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: Ok - let's put game theory to the test: what is the normal form of declaring your candidcay for California governer-game? What's the predicted outcome? And what would Robin Hanson wager on the answer? Fabio If I weren't so broke that I just got a power disconnection notice, I'd wager $10 that Davis will be recalled--and then win reelection. I try never to underestimate the ability of the GOP, especially the CA GOP, to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. David
Re: California Recall
On Mon, 28 Jul 2003, fabio guillermo rojas wrote: Ok - let's put game theory to the test: what is the normal form of declaring your candidcay for California governer-game? What's the predicted outcome? And what would Robin Hanson wager on the answer? Fabio It seems that optimal strategy for Democrats is to choose one candidate and pay off the others not to run, and hope the GOP vote is split. The GOP candidates would like to do the same, but at least 3 candidates (Issa, Riordan, Simon) seem certain to run, suggesting that they think have a real chance in a 4 way contest (3 GOP's, 1 Dem). It doesn't seem that Issa stands a chance against a strong Dem (Feinstein, for ex), and his presence just splits the GOP vote. I'd venture that Issa can afford to be a political bad boy. Given that Issa's already started to run, why would any GOP sign up? They would have to fight Issa and steal centrist Dems. Very up hill battle. Fabio
