Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[david nicosia]

 Respectfully, please stop blaming this on climate change. This is weather, not 
climate. Rapid swings in temperature are actually common in the western/central 
U.S. This one just happened at a bad time for birds. The records are full of 
major temperature changes in the western U.S and Plains since records have been 
kept back to the 1800s. Nothing is different now in that regard.  The climate 
hasn't warmed enough to preclude severe cold air outbreaks or severe winters. 
They are getting less frequent because of global warming but they still DO 
occur. What I am saying is that if the Earth didn't warm we would still see 
such cold air outbreaks and they probably would be a little more frequent. 


On Wednesday, September 23, 2020, 04:01:07 PM EDT, Peg Burlew 
 wrote:  
 
 Hi All, 

I think it’s best to refer to it as “global climate change.”  Perhaps more 
descriptive of what is going on. The climate change deniers love to pounce on 
the term “global warming” whenever a severe cold front occurs.  In their eyes 
this is proof it’s not “warming.” Just saying...

Peg Burlew

Sent from my iPhone

> On Sep 17, 2020, at 11:49 AM, John Luther Cisne  
> wrote:
> 
> cold for s
  
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Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[John Luther Cisne]

n mean temperature 
increase, which we find robustly at play in both observations and simulations. 
The use of this relation also has the advantage of removing dependence of a 
projection on a specific scenario. An empirical projection of the ratio of 
record highs to record lows is obtained from the nonlinear relationship in 
observations from 1930 to 2015, thus correcting downward the likely biased 
future projections of the model. For example, for a 3 °C warming in US 
temperatures, the ratio of record highs to lows is projected to be ∼15 ± 8 
compared to the present average ratio of just over 2.”
Chuck Greene — 
https://www.engineering.cornell.edu/faculty-directory/charles-h-greene — wrote 
much the same, and included the a non-technical paper that serves well as a 
good introduction to the other two [Charles H. Greene, The winters of our 
discontent, Scientific American, December 2012, 50-55].  The one-sentence 
summary: “Loss of Arctic sea ice is stacking the deck in favor of harsh winter 
weather in the U.S. and Europe.”

I want to thank all who have been following and taking part in the discussion, 
and to express appreciation to all at the Laboratory of Ornithology who have 
been compiling and bringing to bear so much meteorologically and 
climatologically important ornithological data from birders like us.  As the 
case of the Great Auk shows, we amateurs have been piling up climatically 
important evidence as far back as the Neanderthals and their osteological 
collections from the Mediterranean: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_auk


From: "Candace E. Cornell" 
Date: Friday, September 18, 2020 at 8:34 AM
To: John , David Nicosia , 
"atvaw...@gmail.com" , CAYUGABIRDS-L 

Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

Please don't take your conversation off line as I find your various points of 
view on this issue fascinating.

Candace Cornell

On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 12:34 PM John Luther Cisne 
mailto:john.ci...@cornell.edu>> wrote:
If I’m not mistaken, we can all agree that Global Warming isn’t just for the 
birds.

From: 
mailto:bounce-124949961-77975...@list.cornell.edu>>
 on behalf of John mailto:john.ci...@cornell.edu>>
Reply-To: John mailto:john.ci...@cornell.edu>>
Date: Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 11:50 AM
To: david nicosia mailto:daven1...@yahoo.com>>, "Kevin J. 
McGowan" mailto:k...@cornell.edu>>, Peter Saracino 
mailto:petersarac...@gmail.com>>, Jody Enck 
mailto:jodye...@gmail.com>>
Cc: "atvaw...@gmail.com<mailto:atvaw...@gmail.com>" 
mailto:atvaw...@gmail.com>>, CAYUGABIRDS-L 
mailto:cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu>>
Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

Apparently you don’t know that the old Department of Atmospheric Sciences 
merged with the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences years ago.  EAS 
continues to offer the former CALS department’s Atmospheric Sciences major.

From: david nicosia mailto:daven1...@yahoo.com>>
Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 9:01 PM
To: "Kevin J. McGowan" mailto:k...@cornell.edu>>, Peter 
Saracino mailto:petersarac...@gmail.com>>, Jody Enck 
mailto:jodye...@gmail.com>>, John 
mailto:john.ci...@cornell.edu>>
Cc: "atvaw...@gmail.com<mailto:atvaw...@gmail.com>" 
mailto:atvaw...@gmail.com>>, CAYUGABIRDS-L 
mailto:cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu>>
Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

Let's get back to birds. This is a birding listserve. I have studied this at 
length and disagree. I do believe in man-made global warming but I don't 
believe it causes record cold. The climate has warmed 1C so we still can see 
record cold with our current climate. The frequency is less though, not more. 
Most meteorologists I know also don't agree that record cold is consistent with 
global warming. Some climatologists do.  If you want to discuss further, please 
direct the emails offline and not on the entire listserve.  I would be happy to 
discuss this issue (again offline) with the Dept Atmospheric Science folks at 
Cornell too if you want. I know most of them well. They are good people and 
also very intelligent.

Best
Dave Nicosia

On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 08:41:37 PM EDT, John Luther Cisne 
mailto:john.ci...@cornell.edu>> wrote:



Record cold over North America is indeed consistent with global warming.  It is 
a regional consequence of the global phenomenon.



To explain it simply (as I was supposed to do in the elementary course I taught 
of years and years, “Evolution of the Earth and Life”), the principle of the 
thing is that Arctic Basin warms not only by importing warm air from the south, 
mainly over oceans, but also by exporting cold air to the south, mainly over 
continents.  Export of air from the north makes space for import of air from 
the south, so to speak.  For now, at least, the export of cold air from 

Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[khmo]

Linda, We have not seen Chris's comments on what he was hearing but banders 
reported nothing that would indicate that a mass migration graced us with a 
stopover as we have been consistently overflown during these predicted high 
movement times. The predictions are fine but many are misreading the radar 
imagery; the majority of the returns continued beyond our area. Chris, what did 
you hear? 

FYI, we retired our passerine efforts a few years back and now concentrate on 
raptors, mostly owls. After 30 years the arrival departure stats/dates remained 
consistent. A difference of say two weeks barely moves a day or so from the 
norm. Migration is indeed triggered by frontal movement with a strong NW cold 
front still the prime mover. Banding data are almost always time late as the 
data are reported to the national lab in Maryland and the made available to all 
researchers willing to properly credit the banders involved. Food supply is 
reflected in breeding results and the paucity/abundance of appropriate foods in 
the natal area. Usually, a paucity of food in the natal area will cause mass 
southbound migration. It is more the correct assist ( fronts and winds aloft) 
that are reflected in the timing. I see nothing unusual this year in the 
Northeast corridors and the timing is within standard deviation from the long 
term norm. 

Saw- whet owls in Northern Ontario are now beginning to move south in large 
numbers portending a good season for us in the states (if the Canadians lift 
the Covid embargo on travel to the states. ;-) About two weeks from now we 
should begin seeing many owls. Then again of food supply (largely Microtus) is 
high the timing /numbers should reflect that. Males compete for next year's 
prime territory so adult males tend to remain closer to the natal areas while 
migration is largely made up of birds of the year and strongly female with the 
young males staying closer to home. Banding data may be weaker this year due 
Covid safety restriction as many stations will work with just the principal 
banders working and most of the smart ones will eschew observers and helpers. 

Good to hear your thoughts ! 
John 

PS. The birdcast predictions are an awesome tool that can only get better with 
time as the algorithms mature and some ground truth checking gets added. It has 
been fun to watch. 


From: "Linda Orkin"  
To: "Jeff Gerbracht"  
Cc: "cayugabirds-l"  
Sent: Friday, September 18, 2020 3:06:07 PM 
Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality 

The huge migration in our area last night and this mass mortality event in the 
southwest of what are apparently emaciated birds has started me wondering what 
kind of monitoring is done on condition of migrating birds. How much data is 
collected each fall at banding stations, how widely is that info disseminated? 
How much can we know about the food supply that was available all season on 
breeding territories throughout the summer based on the birds‘ migration 
condition? 
This seems to me to be an extremely early movement of such large numbers of all 
species. I’m know the assumption that migration is triggered by ideal weather 
Is true but ideal weather can occur of course at the end of September to middle 
of October and I am wondering if anyone has the sense that such large movement 
is at also connected to low food supplies which is another major motivator of 
migration. I am going by Chris T-H post of the stream of migrants that he 
detected last night while listening. And of course perhaps I am mistaken that 
this is early. 

Maybe some people like John and Sue can weigh in on fall migration banding, 
bird condition and if there are detectable trends. 

Thank you. I hope this is an ok discussion at this time. 

Linda Orkin 
Ithaca NY 



On Sep 18, 2020, at 8:53 AM, Jeff Gerbracht  wrote: 





BQ_BEGIN

While this is an interesting discussion, we have certainly veered far off the 
topic of Cayuga Birds. It might be time to move this specific thread to a 
private discussion. 
Thanks. 


On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 12:26 AM David Nicosia < [ mailto:daven102...@gmail.com 
| daven102...@gmail.com ] > wrote: 

BQ_BEGIN


This analogy is not true. The atmosphere doesn't work this way. Greenhouse 
gases are not a lid on the atmosphere. They absorb and emit infrared radiation 
in all directions some back to the Earth. This keeps the Earth 33C warmer than 
if the Earth was a blackbody radiator, i.e no atmosphere. The sun gives us 
about 239 W/m2 of energy if you take geometry into account. The blackbody 
radiation temperature associated with this is 255K or -18C or 0F. By increasing 
greenhouse gases, the emission layer rises to a higher altitude which is colder 
thus there is less emission. The earth must warm up some to balance the reduced 
IR emission. A lid just increases the pressure from steam in a boiling pot. 
That would make currents up and down a lot stronger. But it is t

Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[Linda Orkin]

> As a reward to birders who slogged through my weather & climate paragraphs, 
>>> and as a distraction from the terrible migrant mortality out west, and as 
>>> an attempt to redeem an otherwise non-bird post: 
>>> 
>>> An adult Junco showed up at my feeders yesterday and today, which to me is 
>>> a sign of autumn. An immature junco was briefly here at the end of August 
>>> in a streaky gray plumage which my 2nd edition Sibley guide did not depict. 
>>> 
>>> A male Rose-breasted Grosbeak first showed up at my feeders on 24 August 
>>> and I assume it’s the same bird I’ve seen several times since, including 
>>> today. He has been molting into a plumage which, again, my 2nd edition 
>>> Sibley guide did not depict. 
>>> 
>>> - - Dave Nutter
>>> 
>>> On Sep 16, 2020, at 8:41 PM, John Luther Cisne  
>>> wrote:
>>> 
>>>> Record cold over North America is indeed consistent with global warming.  
>>>> It is a regional consequence of the global phenomenon. 
>>>> 
>>>>  
>>>> 
>>>> To explain it simply (as I was supposed to do in the elementary course I 
>>>> taught of years and years, “Evolution of the Earth and Life”), the 
>>>> principle of the thing is that Arctic Basin warms not only by importing 
>>>> warm air from the south, mainly over oceans, but also by exporting cold 
>>>> air to the south, mainly over continents.  Export of air from the north 
>>>> makes space for import of air from the south, so to speak.  For now, at 
>>>> least, the export of cold air from the Arctic is concentrated over North 
>>>> America. 
>>>> 
>>>>  
>>>> 
>>>> Certain of my colleagues in the Department Earth and Atmospheric Sciences 
>>>> will be able to give everyone a far better and more detailed explanation.
>>>> 
>>>>  
>>>> 
>>>>  
>>>> 
>>>> From:  on behalf of "Kevin J. 
>>>> McGowan" 
>>>> Reply-To: "Kevin J. McGowan" 
>>>> Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 8:03 PM
>>>> To: david nicosia , Peter Saracino 
>>>> , Jody Enck 
>>>> Cc: "atvaw...@gmail.com" , CAYUGABIRDS-L 
>>>> 
>>>> Subject: RE: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality
>>>> 
>>>>  
>>>> 
>>>> “Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with global warming. “
>>>> 
>>>>  
>>>> 
>>>> Why not? Global warming doesn’t mean warming happens all over the globe 
>>>> evenly. I’ve been watching our area in the northeast for the last decade, 
>>>> thinking mostly about Snowy Owl incursions, and I’ve noticed strange 
>>>> changes in the distribution of cold across the arctic, perhaps changes in 
>>>> the “polar vortex” that seem to isolate the NE as a cold spot while Alaska 
>>>> warms up. The last ten years have shown Ithaca regularly with winter 
>>>> temperatures lower than Nome, Alaska. That isn’t right.
>>>> 
>>>>  
>>>> 
>>>> Global warming at the poles doesn’t mean every place warms up, it means 
>>>> that the consistencies of weather patterns we could count on could be 
>>>> disrupted. Colder Ithaca winters and heat waves in Alaska are totally 
>>>> consistent with a global warming scenario. Freak arctic blasts into the 
>>>> rockies while the north pole melts also points to something freakishly 
>>>> abnormal happening, totally consistent with global warming.
>>>> 
>>>>  
>>>> 
>>>> Kevin
>>>> 
>>>>  
>>>> 
>>>>  
>>>> 
>>>> From: bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu 
>>>>  On Behalf Of david nicosia
>>>> Sent: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 7:46 PM
>>>> To: Peter Saracino ; Jody Enck 
>>>> 
>>>> Cc: atvaw...@gmail.com; CAYUGABIRDS-L 
>>>> Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality
>>>> 
>>>>  
>>>> 
>>>> The western U.S has a history of extreme temperature changes. This event 
>>>> ranks number 3 for the biggest temperature swing in history and it 
>>>> occurred during fall migration. Most of the other big swings in temperature
>>>> 
>>>> occurred in the winter. What is dramatic is how cold it got and the early 
>>>> snows

Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[Jeff Gerbracht]

 from water which I’m ignoring here: Part of
>> the earth’s surface,  the ocean, moves and transfers a great deal of heat
>> energy in major currents such as the Gulf Stream. Ice & snow reflect
>> sunlight back into space. Clouds also act as reflectors on top but as
>> insulating blankets below. Water absorbs heat as it evaporates or melts but
>> gives off heat as it condenses or freezes.]
>>
>>
>> My analogous situation is a pot of hot water on a stove such that the lid
>> is off, the water has been brought to a boil, so it is thoroughly warmed,
>> and the flame has been reduced enough that the water is no longer boiling,
>> but it’s in a steady state where there are steam bubbles forming on the
>> bottom which disappear before reaching the surface.
>>
>> The source of heat is the flame below, analogous to the sun. The heat,
>> via the water, eventually goes into the room, our equivalent of outer
>> space. If you look down at the water you should be able to see places on
>> the surface where there are upwellings of warmer water rising. The water
>> doesn’t rise everywhere at once, and the water is descending in between
>> where it is rising. The pot itself is like the surface of the earth, warmer
>> right over the flame (where sunlight is direct and prolonged) and cooler at
>> the rim (everywhere else). The movements of water in the pot are like the
>> weather on earth. The heat comes in, it gets moved around by the weather in
>> a general pattern with lots of smaller scale differences, and the heat
>> leaves, while the overall temperature remains fairly even.
>>
>> Now, suppose that, without changing the low flame, you partially cover
>> the pot with a lid. It’s now a bit more difficult for the heat to escape,
>> so the water temperature rises to a new stable level, and you may even get
>> the water to boil again without increasing the flame. Also those
>> convection currents in the water get stronger - both the hot currents going
>> one direction and cooler currents going the other direction.
>>
>> The lid partially covering the pot is the equivalent of adding greenhouse
>> gases to our atmosphere. The result is a warmer average temperature, and
>> also stronger weather patterns, both warm winds and cold winds, and
>> stronger storms (with lots of  water evaporating, condensing, freezing &
>> melting) helping to redistribute heat as well. What happens at any
>> particular location on earth is apt to be different from previous patterns,
>> more extreme, more violent, and more variable. We can’t rely as much on our
>> reassuring decades of weather records (the previous climate for any
>> location) for what to expect anymore, because we have changed the
>> atmosphere so that the system is more energetic.
>>
>> As a reward to birders who slogged through my weather & climate
>> paragraphs, and as a distraction from the terrible migrant mortality out
>> west, and as an attempt to redeem an otherwise non-bird post:
>>
>> An adult Junco showed up at my feeders yesterday and today, which to me
>> is a sign of autumn. An immature junco was briefly here at the end of
>> August in a streaky gray plumage which my 2nd edition Sibley guide did not
>> depict.
>>
>> A male Rose-breasted Grosbeak first showed up at my feeders on 24 August
>> and I assume it’s the same bird I’ve seen several times since, including
>> today. He has been molting into a plumage which, again, my 2nd edition
>> Sibley guide did not depict.
>>
>> - - Dave Nutter
>>
>> On Sep 16, 2020, at 8:41 PM, John Luther Cisne 
>> wrote:
>>
>> Record cold over North America is indeed consistent with global warming.
>> It is a regional consequence of the global phenomenon.
>>
>>
>>
>> To explain it simply (as I was supposed to do in the elementary course I
>> taught of years and years, “Evolution of the Earth and Life”), the
>> principle of the thing is that Arctic Basin warms not only by importing
>> warm air from the south, mainly over oceans, but also by exporting cold air
>> to the south, mainly over continents.  Export of air from the north makes
>> space for import of air from the south, so to speak.  For now, at least,
>> the export of cold air from the Arctic is concentrated over North America.
>>
>>
>>
>> Certain of my colleagues in the Department Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
>> will be able to give everyone a far better and more detailed explanation.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> *From: * on behalf of "Kevin
>> J. McGowan" 
>> *Reply-T

Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[Candace E. Cornell]

Please don't take your conversation off line as I find your various points
of view on this issue fascinating.

Candace Cornell

On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 12:34 PM John Luther Cisne 
wrote:

> If I’m not mistaken, we can all agree that Global Warming isn’t just for
> the birds.
>
>
>
> *From: * on behalf of John <
> john.ci...@cornell.edu>
> *Reply-To: *John 
> *Date: *Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 11:50 AM
> *To: *david nicosia , "Kevin J. McGowan" <
> k...@cornell.edu>, Peter Saracino , Jody Enck <
> jodye...@gmail.com>
> *Cc: *"atvaw...@gmail.com" , CAYUGABIRDS-L <
> cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu>
> *Subject: *Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality
>
>
>
> Apparently you don’t know that the old Department of Atmospheric Sciences
> merged with the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences years ago.
> EAS continues to offer the former CALS department’s Atmospheric Sciences
> major.
>
>
>
> *From: *david nicosia 
> *Date: *Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 9:01 PM
> *To: *"Kevin J. McGowan" , Peter Saracino <
> petersarac...@gmail.com>, Jody Enck , John <
> john.ci...@cornell.edu>
> *Cc: *"atvaw...@gmail.com" , CAYUGABIRDS-L <
> cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu>
> *Subject: *Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality
>
>
>
> Let's get back to birds. This is a birding listserve. I have studied this
> at length and disagree. I do believe in man-made global warming but I don't
> believe it causes record cold. The climate has warmed 1C so we still can
> see record cold with our current climate. The frequency is less though, not
> more. Most meteorologists I know also don't agree that record cold is
> consistent with global warming. Some climatologists do.  If you want to
> discuss further, please direct the emails offline and not on the entire
> listserve.  I would be happy to discuss this issue (again offline) with the
> Dept Atmospheric Science folks at Cornell too if you want. I know most of
> them well. They are good people and also very intelligent.
>
>
>
> Best
>
> Dave Nicosia
>
>
>
> On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 08:41:37 PM EDT, John Luther Cisne <
> john.ci...@cornell.edu> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> Record cold over North America is indeed consistent with global warming.
> It is a regional consequence of the global phenomenon.
>
>
>
> To explain it simply (as I was supposed to do in the elementary course I
> taught of years and years, “Evolution of the Earth and Life”), the
> principle of the thing is that Arctic Basin warms not only by importing
> warm air from the south, mainly over oceans, but also by exporting cold air
> to the south, mainly over continents.  Export of air from the north makes
> space for import of air from the south, so to speak.  For now, at least,
> the export of cold air from the Arctic is concentrated over North America.
>
>
>
> Certain of my colleagues in the Department Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
> will be able to give everyone a far better and more detailed explanation.
>
>
>
>
>
> *From: * on behalf of "Kevin
> J. McGowan" 
> *Reply-To: *"Kevin J. McGowan" 
> *Date: *Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 8:03 PM
> *To: *david nicosia , Peter Saracino <
> petersarac...@gmail.com>, Jody Enck 
> *Cc: *"atvaw...@gmail.com" , CAYUGABIRDS-L <
> cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu>
> *Subject: *RE: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality
>
>
>
> “Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with global warming. “
>
>
>
> Why not? Global warming doesn’t mean warming happens all over the globe
> evenly. I’ve been watching our area in the northeast for the last decade,
> thinking mostly about Snowy Owl incursions, and I’ve noticed strange
> changes in the distribution of cold across the arctic, perhaps changes in
> the “polar vortex” that seem to isolate the NE as a cold spot while Alaska
> warms up. The last ten years have shown Ithaca regularly with winter
> temperatures lower than Nome, Alaska. That isn’t right.
>
>
>
> Global warming at the poles doesn’t mean every place warms up, it means
> that the consistencies of weather patterns we could count on could be
> disrupted. Colder Ithaca winters and heat waves in Alaska are totally
> consistent with a global warming scenario. Freak arctic blasts into the
> rockies while the north pole melts also points to something freakishly
> abnormal happening, totally consistent with global warming.
>
>
>
> Kevin
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu <
> bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu> *On 

Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[David Nicosia]

lame has been reduced enough that the water is no longer boiling,
> but it’s in a steady state where there are steam bubbles forming on the
> bottom which disappear before reaching the surface.
>
> The source of heat is the flame below, analogous to the sun. The heat, via
> the water, eventually goes into the room, our equivalent of outer space. If
> you look down at the water you should be able to see places on the surface
> where there are upwellings of warmer water rising. The water doesn’t rise
> everywhere at once, and the water is descending in between where it is
> rising. The pot itself is like the surface of the earth, warmer right over
> the flame (where sunlight is direct and prolonged) and cooler at the rim
> (everywhere else). The movements of water in the pot are like the weather
> on earth. The heat comes in, it gets moved around by the weather in a
> general pattern with lots of smaller scale differences, and the heat
> leaves, while the overall temperature remains fairly even.
>
> Now, suppose that, without changing the low flame, you partially cover the
> pot with a lid. It’s now a bit more difficult for the heat to escape, so
> the water temperature rises to a new stable level, and you may even get the
> water to boil again without increasing the flame. Also those convection
> currents in the water get stronger - both the hot currents going one
> direction and cooler currents going the other direction.
>
> The lid partially covering the pot is the equivalent of adding greenhouse
> gases to our atmosphere. The result is a warmer average temperature, and
> also stronger weather patterns, both warm winds and cold winds, and
> stronger storms (with lots of  water evaporating, condensing, freezing &
> melting) helping to redistribute heat as well. What happens at any
> particular location on earth is apt to be different from previous patterns,
> more extreme, more violent, and more variable. We can’t rely as much on our
> reassuring decades of weather records (the previous climate for any
> location) for what to expect anymore, because we have changed the
> atmosphere so that the system is more energetic.
>
> As a reward to birders who slogged through my weather & climate
> paragraphs, and as a distraction from the terrible migrant mortality out
> west, and as an attempt to redeem an otherwise non-bird post:
>
> An adult Junco showed up at my feeders yesterday and today, which to me is
> a sign of autumn. An immature junco was briefly here at the end of August
> in a streaky gray plumage which my 2nd edition Sibley guide did not depict.
>
> A male Rose-breasted Grosbeak first showed up at my feeders on 24 August
> and I assume it’s the same bird I’ve seen several times since, including
> today. He has been molting into a plumage which, again, my 2nd edition
> Sibley guide did not depict.
>
> - - Dave Nutter
>
> On Sep 16, 2020, at 8:41 PM, John Luther Cisne 
> wrote:
>
> Record cold over North America is indeed consistent with global warming.
> It is a regional consequence of the global phenomenon.
>
>
>
> To explain it simply (as I was supposed to do in the elementary course I
> taught of years and years, “Evolution of the Earth and Life”), the
> principle of the thing is that Arctic Basin warms not only by importing
> warm air from the south, mainly over oceans, but also by exporting cold air
> to the south, mainly over continents.  Export of air from the north makes
> space for import of air from the south, so to speak.  For now, at least,
> the export of cold air from the Arctic is concentrated over North America.
>
>
>
> Certain of my colleagues in the Department Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
> will be able to give everyone a far better and more detailed explanation.
>
>
>
>
>
> *From: * on behalf of "Kevin
> J. McGowan" 
> *Reply-To: *"Kevin J. McGowan" 
> *Date: *Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 8:03 PM
> *To: *david nicosia , Peter Saracino <
> petersarac...@gmail.com>, Jody Enck 
> *Cc: *"atvaw...@gmail.com" , CAYUGABIRDS-L <
> cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu>
> *Subject: *RE: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality
>
>
>
> “Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with global warming. “
>
>
>
> Why not? Global warming doesn’t mean warming happens all over the globe
> evenly. I’ve been watching our area in the northeast for the last decade,
> thinking mostly about Snowy Owl incursions, and I’ve noticed strange
> changes in the distribution of cold across the arctic, perhaps changes in
> the “polar vortex” that seem to isolate the NE as a cold spot while Alaska
> warms up. The last ten years have shown Ithaca regularly with winter
> tempe

Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[Dave Nutter]

lumage which, again, my 2nd edition Sibley guide did 
not depict. 

- - Dave Nutter

> On Sep 16, 2020, at 8:41 PM, John Luther Cisne  wrote:
> 
> Record cold over North America is indeed consistent with global warming.  It 
> is a regional consequence of the global phenomenon. 
>  
> To explain it simply (as I was supposed to do in the elementary course I 
> taught of years and years, “Evolution of the Earth and Life”), the principle 
> of the thing is that Arctic Basin warms not only by importing warm air from 
> the south, mainly over oceans, but also by exporting cold air to the south, 
> mainly over continents.  Export of air from the north makes space for import 
> of air from the south, so to speak.  For now, at least, the export of cold 
> air from the Arctic is concentrated over North America. 
>  
> Certain of my colleagues in the Department Earth and Atmospheric Sciences 
> will be able to give everyone a far better and more detailed explanation.
>  
>  
> From:  on behalf of "Kevin J. 
> McGowan" 
> Reply-To: "Kevin J. McGowan" 
> Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 8:03 PM
> To: david nicosia , Peter Saracino 
> , Jody Enck 
> Cc: "atvaw...@gmail.com" , CAYUGABIRDS-L 
> 
> Subject: RE: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality
>  
> “Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with global warming. “
>  
> Why not? Global warming doesn’t mean warming happens all over the globe 
> evenly. I’ve been watching our area in the northeast for the last decade, 
> thinking mostly about Snowy Owl incursions, and I’ve noticed strange changes 
> in the distribution of cold across the arctic, perhaps changes in the “polar 
> vortex” that seem to isolate the NE as a cold spot while Alaska warms up. The 
> last ten years have shown Ithaca regularly with winter temperatures lower 
> than Nome, Alaska. That isn’t right.
>  
> Global warming at the poles doesn’t mean every place warms up, it means that 
> the consistencies of weather patterns we could count on could be disrupted. 
> Colder Ithaca winters and heat waves in Alaska are totally consistent with a 
> global warming scenario. Freak arctic blasts into the rockies while the north 
> pole melts also points to something freakishly abnormal happening, totally 
> consistent with global warming.
>  
> Kevin
>  
>  
> From: bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu 
>  On Behalf Of david nicosia
> Sent: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 7:46 PM
> To: Peter Saracino ; Jody Enck 
> Cc: atvaw...@gmail.com; CAYUGABIRDS-L 
> Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality
>  
> The western U.S has a history of extreme temperature changes. This event 
> ranks number 3 for the biggest temperature swing in history and it occurred 
> during fall migration. Most of the other big swings in temperature
> occurred in the winter. What is dramatic is how cold it got and the early 
> snows that fell. Temperatures in parts of the Rockies fell to 9F with winds 
> over 50 mph. That is insanely cold for so early in the season. The Arctic 
> high pressure that came across the Rockies has denser and heavier air which 
> flows downslope into California, and Oregon warming by compression leading to 
> high winds and VERY dry conditions. This fuels the tremendous fires.  So in a 
> sense it is the brutal unseasonable cold air that is the real cause of the 
> conditions that caused the fires. I assume the fires, combined with 
> temperatures in the 80, 90s and 100s dropping to the teens 20s and 30s in 
> many areas in the Rockies with early snows was too much for many birds to 
> handle causing the high mortality rates. I have read that people are blaming 
> climate change on this. I don't see it because it is the intense cold that 
> really fueled the fires in CA and OR and probably had a negative effect on 
> the birds. Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with global 
> warming. 
>  
>  
> On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 05:18:09 PM EDT, Jody Enck 
>  wrote:
>  
>  
> Thank, Pete, for passing along the Guardian article.  Additional information 
> has been forthcoming recently.  Hypotheses include movements related to smoky 
> conditions in some states, coupled with those weird temperature swings 
> recorded last week (90 to 100 F one day and below freezing, with snow, the 
> next day).  Seems less likely to be a nefarious even (e.g., poisoning) than 
> something more likely caused by challenging environmental factors.
>  
> I hope more information comes out soon.
>  
> Jody W. Enck, PhD
> Conservation Social Scientist, and
> Founder of the Sister Bird Club Network
> 607-379-5940
>  
>  
> On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 5:03 PM Peter Saracino  
> wrote:
> http

Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[John Luther Cisne]

If I’m not mistaken, we can all agree that Global Warming isn’t just for the 
birds.

From:  on behalf of John 

Reply-To: John 
Date: Thursday, September 17, 2020 at 11:50 AM
To: david nicosia , "Kevin J. McGowan" , 
Peter Saracino , Jody Enck 
Cc: "atvaw...@gmail.com" , CAYUGABIRDS-L 

Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

Apparently you don’t know that the old Department of Atmospheric Sciences 
merged with the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences years ago.  EAS 
continues to offer the former CALS department’s Atmospheric Sciences major.

From: david nicosia 
Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 9:01 PM
To: "Kevin J. McGowan" , Peter Saracino 
, Jody Enck , John 

Cc: "atvaw...@gmail.com" , CAYUGABIRDS-L 

Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

Let's get back to birds. This is a birding listserve. I have studied this at 
length and disagree. I do believe in man-made global warming but I don't 
believe it causes record cold. The climate has warmed 1C so we still can see 
record cold with our current climate. The frequency is less though, not more. 
Most meteorologists I know also don't agree that record cold is consistent with 
global warming. Some climatologists do.  If you want to discuss further, please 
direct the emails offline and not on the entire listserve.  I would be happy to 
discuss this issue (again offline) with the Dept Atmospheric Science folks at 
Cornell too if you want. I know most of them well. They are good people and 
also very intelligent.

Best
Dave Nicosia

On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 08:41:37 PM EDT, John Luther Cisne 
 wrote:



Record cold over North America is indeed consistent with global warming.  It is 
a regional consequence of the global phenomenon.



To explain it simply (as I was supposed to do in the elementary course I taught 
of years and years, “Evolution of the Earth and Life”), the principle of the 
thing is that Arctic Basin warms not only by importing warm air from the south, 
mainly over oceans, but also by exporting cold air to the south, mainly over 
continents.  Export of air from the north makes space for import of air from 
the south, so to speak.  For now, at least, the export of cold air from the 
Arctic is concentrated over North America.



Certain of my colleagues in the Department Earth and Atmospheric Sciences will 
be able to give everyone a far better and more detailed explanation.





From:  on behalf of "Kevin J. 
McGowan" 
Reply-To: "Kevin J. McGowan" 
Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 8:03 PM
To: david nicosia , Peter Saracino 
, Jody Enck 
Cc: "atvaw...@gmail.com" , CAYUGABIRDS-L 

Subject: RE: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality



“Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with global warming. “



Why not? Global warming doesn’t mean warming happens all over the globe evenly. 
I’ve been watching our area in the northeast for the last decade, thinking 
mostly about Snowy Owl incursions, and I’ve noticed strange changes in the 
distribution of cold across the arctic, perhaps changes in the “polar vortex” 
that seem to isolate the NE as a cold spot while Alaska warms up. The last ten 
years have shown Ithaca regularly with winter temperatures lower than Nome, 
Alaska. That isn’t right.



Global warming at the poles doesn’t mean every place warms up, it means that 
the consistencies of weather patterns we could count on could be disrupted. 
Colder Ithaca winters and heat waves in Alaska are totally consistent with a 
global warming scenario. Freak arctic blasts into the rockies while the north 
pole melts also points to something freakishly abnormal happening, totally 
consistent with global warming.



Kevin





From: bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu 
 On Behalf Of david nicosia
Sent: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 7:46 PM
To: Peter Saracino ; Jody Enck 
Cc: atvaw...@gmail.com; CAYUGABIRDS-L 
Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality



The western U.S has a history of extreme temperature changes. This event ranks 
number 3 for the biggest temperature swing in history and it occurred during 
fall migration. Most of the other big swings in temperature

occurred in the winter. What is dramatic is how cold it got and the early snows 
that fell. Temperatures in parts of the Rockies fell to 9F with winds over 50 
mph. That is insanely cold for so early in the season. The Arctic high pressure 
that came across the Rockies has denser and heavier air which flows downslope 
into California, and Oregon warming by compression leading to high winds and 
VERY dry conditions. This fuels the tremendous fires.  So in a sense it is the 
brutal unseasonable cold air that is the real cause of the conditions that 
caused the fires. I assume the fires, combined with temperatures in the 80, 90s 
and 100s dropping to the teens 20s and 30s in many areas in the Rockies with 
early snows was too much f

Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[John Luther Cisne]

Apparently you don’t know that the old Department of Atmospheric Sciences 
merged with the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences years ago.  EAS 
continues to offer the former CALS department’s Atmospheric Sciences major.

From: david nicosia 
Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 9:01 PM
To: "Kevin J. McGowan" , Peter Saracino 
, Jody Enck , John 

Cc: "atvaw...@gmail.com" , CAYUGABIRDS-L 

Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

Let's get back to birds. This is a birding listserve. I have studied this at 
length and disagree. I do believe in man-made global warming but I don't 
believe it causes record cold. The climate has warmed 1C so we still can see 
record cold with our current climate. The frequency is less though, not more. 
Most meteorologists I know also don't agree that record cold is consistent with 
global warming. Some climatologists do.  If you want to discuss further, please 
direct the emails offline and not on the entire listserve.  I would be happy to 
discuss this issue (again offline) with the Dept Atmospheric Science folks at 
Cornell too if you want. I know most of them well. They are good people and 
also very intelligent.

Best
Dave Nicosia

On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 08:41:37 PM EDT, John Luther Cisne 
 wrote:



Record cold over North America is indeed consistent with global warming.  It is 
a regional consequence of the global phenomenon.



To explain it simply (as I was supposed to do in the elementary course I taught 
of years and years, “Evolution of the Earth and Life”), the principle of the 
thing is that Arctic Basin warms not only by importing warm air from the south, 
mainly over oceans, but also by exporting cold air to the south, mainly over 
continents.  Export of air from the north makes space for import of air from 
the south, so to speak.  For now, at least, the export of cold air from the 
Arctic is concentrated over North America.



Certain of my colleagues in the Department Earth and Atmospheric Sciences will 
be able to give everyone a far better and more detailed explanation.





From:  on behalf of "Kevin J. 
McGowan" 
Reply-To: "Kevin J. McGowan" 
Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 8:03 PM
To: david nicosia , Peter Saracino 
, Jody Enck 
Cc: "atvaw...@gmail.com" , CAYUGABIRDS-L 

Subject: RE: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality



“Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with global warming. “



Why not? Global warming doesn’t mean warming happens all over the globe evenly. 
I’ve been watching our area in the northeast for the last decade, thinking 
mostly about Snowy Owl incursions, and I’ve noticed strange changes in the 
distribution of cold across the arctic, perhaps changes in the “polar vortex” 
that seem to isolate the NE as a cold spot while Alaska warms up. The last ten 
years have shown Ithaca regularly with winter temperatures lower than Nome, 
Alaska. That isn’t right.



Global warming at the poles doesn’t mean every place warms up, it means that 
the consistencies of weather patterns we could count on could be disrupted. 
Colder Ithaca winters and heat waves in Alaska are totally consistent with a 
global warming scenario. Freak arctic blasts into the rockies while the north 
pole melts also points to something freakishly abnormal happening, totally 
consistent with global warming.



Kevin





From: bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu 
 On Behalf Of david nicosia
Sent: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 7:46 PM
To: Peter Saracino ; Jody Enck 
Cc: atvaw...@gmail.com; CAYUGABIRDS-L 
Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality



The western U.S has a history of extreme temperature changes. This event ranks 
number 3 for the biggest temperature swing in history and it occurred during 
fall migration. Most of the other big swings in temperature

occurred in the winter. What is dramatic is how cold it got and the early snows 
that fell. Temperatures in parts of the Rockies fell to 9F with winds over 50 
mph. That is insanely cold for so early in the season. The Arctic high pressure 
that came across the Rockies has denser and heavier air which flows downslope 
into California, and Oregon warming by compression leading to high winds and 
VERY dry conditions. This fuels the tremendous fires.  So in a sense it is the 
brutal unseasonable cold air that is the real cause of the conditions that 
caused the fires. I assume the fires, combined with temperatures in the 80, 90s 
and 100s dropping to the teens 20s and 30s in many areas in the Rockies with 
early snows was too much for many birds to handle causing the high mortality 
rates. I have read that people are blaming climate change on this. I don't see 
it because it is the intense cold that really fueled the fires in CA and OR and 
probably had a negative effect on the birds. Record cold of this magnitude is 
not consistent with global warming.





On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 05:

Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[david nicosia]

 Let's get back to birds. This is a birding listserve. I have studied this at 
length and disagree. I do believe in man-made global warming but I don't 
believe it causes record cold. The climate has warmed 1C so we still can see 
record cold with our current climate. The frequency is less though, not more. 
Most meteorologists I know also don't agree that record cold is consistent with 
global warming. Some climatologists do.  If you want to discuss further, please 
direct the emails offline and not on the entire listserve.  I would be happy to 
discuss this issue (again offline) with the Dept Atmospheric Science folks at 
Cornell too if you want. I know most of them well. They are good people and 
also very intelligent. 
BestDave Nicosia
On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 08:41:37 PM EDT, John Luther Cisne 
 wrote:  
 
 
Record cold over North America is indeed consistent with global warming.  It is 
a regional consequence of the global phenomenon. 
 
  
 
To explain it simply (as I was supposed to do in the elementary course I taught 
of years and years, “Evolution of the Earth and Life”), the principle of the 
thing is that Arctic Basin warms not only by importing warm air from the south, 
mainly over oceans, but also by exporting cold air to the south, mainly over 
continents.  Export of air from the north makes space for import of air from 
the south, so to speak.  For now, at least, the export of cold air from the 
Arctic is concentrated over North America.  
 
  
 
Certain of my colleagues in the Department Earth and Atmospheric Sciences will 
be able to give everyone a far better and more detailed explanation.
 
  
 
  
 
From:  on behalf of "Kevin J. 
McGowan" 
Reply-To: "Kevin J. McGowan" 
Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 8:03 PM
To: david nicosia , Peter Saracino 
, Jody Enck 
Cc: "atvaw...@gmail.com" , CAYUGABIRDS-L 

Subject: RE: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality
 
  
 
“Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with global warming. “
 
 
 
Why not? Global warming doesn’t mean warming happens all over the globe evenly. 
I’ve been watching our area in the northeast for the last decade, thinking 
mostly about Snowy Owl incursions, and I’ve noticed strange changes in the 
distribution of cold across the arctic, perhaps changes in the “polar vortex” 
that seem to isolate the NE as a cold spot while Alaska warms up. The last ten 
years have shown Ithaca regularly with winter temperatures lower than Nome, 
Alaska. That isn’t right. 
 
 
 
Global warming at the poles doesn’t mean every place warms up, it means that 
the consistencies of weather patterns we could count on could be disrupted. 
Colder Ithaca winters and heat waves in Alaska are totally consistent with a 
global warming scenario. Freak arctic blasts into the rockies while the north 
pole melts also points to something freakishly abnormal happening, totally 
consistent with global warming.
 
 
 
Kevin
 
 
 
 
 
From: bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu 
On Behalf Of david nicosia
Sent: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 7:46 PM
To: Peter Saracino ; Jody Enck 
Cc: atvaw...@gmail.com; CAYUGABIRDS-L 
Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality
 
 
 
The western U.S has a history of extreme temperature changes. This event ranks 
number 3 for the biggest temperature swing in history and it occurred during 
fall migration. Most of the other big swings in temperature
 
occurred in the winter. What is dramatic is how cold it got and the early snows 
that fell. Temperatures in parts of the Rockies fell to 9F with winds over 50 
mph. That is insanely cold for so early in the season. The Arctic high pressure 
that came across the Rockies has denser and heavier air which flows downslope 
into California, and Oregon warming by compression leading to high winds and 
VERY dry conditions. This fuels the tremendous fires.  So in a sense it is the 
brutal unseasonable cold air that is the real cause of the conditions that 
caused the fires. I assume the fires, combined with temperatures in the 80, 90s 
and 100s dropping to the teens 20s and 30s in many areas in the Rockies with 
early snows was too much for many birds to handle causing the high mortality 
rates. I have read that people are blaming climate change on this. I don't see 
it because it is the intense cold that really fueled the fires in CA and OR and 
probably had a negative effect on the birds. Record cold of this magnitude is 
not consistent with global warming. 
 
 
 
 
 
On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 05:18:09 PM EDT, Jody Enck 
 wrote:
 
 
 
 
 
Thank, Pete, for passing along the Guardian article.  Additional information 
has been forthcoming recently.  Hypotheses include movements related to smoky 
conditions in some states, coupled with those weird temperature swings recorded 
last week (90 to 100 F one day and below freezing, with snow, the next day).  
Seems less likely to be a nefarious even (e.g., poisoning) than

Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[John Luther Cisne]

Record cold over North America is indeed consistent with global warming.  It is 
a regional consequence of the global phenomenon.

To explain it simply (as I was supposed to do in the elementary course I taught 
of years and years, “Evolution of the Earth and Life”), the principle of the 
thing is that Arctic Basin warms not only by importing warm air from the south, 
mainly over oceans, but also by exporting cold air to the south, mainly over 
continents.  Export of air from the north makes space for import of air from 
the south, so to speak.  For now, at least, the export of cold air from the 
Arctic is concentrated over North America.

Certain of my colleagues in the Department Earth and Atmospheric Sciences will 
be able to give everyone a far better and more detailed explanation.


From:  on behalf of "Kevin J. 
McGowan" 
Reply-To: "Kevin J. McGowan" 
Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 8:03 PM
To: david nicosia , Peter Saracino 
, Jody Enck 
Cc: "atvaw...@gmail.com" , CAYUGABIRDS-L 

Subject: RE: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

“Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with global warming. “

Why not? Global warming doesn’t mean warming happens all over the globe evenly. 
I’ve been watching our area in the northeast for the last decade, thinking 
mostly about Snowy Owl incursions, and I’ve noticed strange changes in the 
distribution of cold across the arctic, perhaps changes in the “polar vortex” 
that seem to isolate the NE as a cold spot while Alaska warms up. The last ten 
years have shown Ithaca regularly with winter temperatures lower than Nome, 
Alaska. That isn’t right.

Global warming at the poles doesn’t mean every place warms up, it means that 
the consistencies of weather patterns we could count on could be disrupted. 
Colder Ithaca winters and heat waves in Alaska are totally consistent with a 
global warming scenario. Freak arctic blasts into the rockies while the north 
pole melts also points to something freakishly abnormal happening, totally 
consistent with global warming.

Kevin


From: bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu 
 On Behalf Of david nicosia
Sent: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 7:46 PM
To: Peter Saracino ; Jody Enck 
Cc: atvaw...@gmail.com; CAYUGABIRDS-L 
Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

The western U.S has a history of extreme temperature changes. This event ranks 
number 3 for the biggest temperature swing in history and it occurred during 
fall migration. Most of the other big swings in temperature
occurred in the winter. What is dramatic is how cold it got and the early snows 
that fell. Temperatures in parts of the Rockies fell to 9F with winds over 50 
mph. That is insanely cold for so early in the season. The Arctic high pressure 
that came across the Rockies has denser and heavier air which flows downslope 
into California, and Oregon warming by compression leading to high winds and 
VERY dry conditions. This fuels the tremendous fires.  So in a sense it is the 
brutal unseasonable cold air that is the real cause of the conditions that 
caused the fires. I assume the fires, combined with temperatures in the 80, 90s 
and 100s dropping to the teens 20s and 30s in many areas in the Rockies with 
early snows was too much for many birds to handle causing the high mortality 
rates. I have read that people are blaming climate change on this. I don't see 
it because it is the intense cold that really fueled the fires in CA and OR and 
probably had a negative effect on the birds. Record cold of this magnitude is 
not consistent with global warming.


On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 05:18:09 PM EDT, Jody Enck 
mailto:jodye...@gmail.com>> wrote:


Thank, Pete, for passing along the Guardian article.  Additional information 
has been forthcoming recently.  Hypotheses include movements related to smoky 
conditions in some states, coupled with those weird temperature swings recorded 
last week (90 to 100 F one day and below freezing, with snow, the next day).  
Seems less likely to be a nefarious even (e.g., poisoning) than something more 
likely caused by challenging environmental factors.

I hope more information comes out soon.

Jody W. Enck, PhD
Conservation Social Scientist, and
Founder of the Sister Bird Club Network
607-379-5940


On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 5:03 PM Peter Saracino 
mailto:petersarac...@gmail.com>> wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/16/birds-falling-out-of-the-sky-in-mass-die-off-in-south-western-us-aoe


On Tue, Sep 15, 2020, 6:47 PM Tom 
mailto:atvaw...@gmail.com>> wrote:
I just learned of the mass mortality of migrating birds in New Mexico.  I read 
a CNN report.  Is there any new information on the cause?  They’re talking 
hundreds of thousands, even millions.

Tom V

Sent from my iPhone


--

Cayugabirds-L List Info:
http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsWELCOME
http://www.NortheastBirding.com/

Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[david nicosia]

 I have to jump in here. Sorry. When it is warmer in Nome Alaska than Ithaca NY 
the jet stream has a very high amplitude. Waves with high amplitude have a lot 
of energy. The jet stream derives its energy from the temperature differences 
from polar regions to the midlatitudes and subtropics. Stronger temperature 
differences lead to high amplitude patterns. So it is the intense cold at high 
latitudes that leads to stronger high amplitude patterns that dump cold air 
down here. We saw such patterns in the 1960s and 1970s too a globally cool 
period. Canada was actually quite cold last winter so we had an highly 
amplified jet stream that deposited record cold in the central U.S.  A warmer 
Canada doesn't lead to cold polar vortexes displaced south. The cold originates 
from the Arctic and Canada and becomes so expansive that it reaches our 
latitude. There also have been many instances where is can get warmer in Alaska 
and colder in the east because of a high amplitude jet stream. The brutal 
winter of 1976-77 saw record heat in Alaska in January. This happens more than 
you think. 
The cold that hit the Rockies this September originated over the land in 
northern Canada. It was clear and strong radiational cooling caused it. Global 
warming from greenhouse gases would have modified this air mass enough to 
lessen the extreme cold. It didn't happen. The cooling "power" of the land 
masses of the high latitudes remains intense. We don't get a lot of bitter cold 
air from the Arctic ocean. Its Alaska,and northern Canada where we get our cold 
from. 
On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 08:03:46 PM EDT, Kevin J. McGowan 
 wrote:  
 
 
“Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with global warming. “
 
  
 
Why not? Global warming doesn’t mean warming happens all over the globe evenly. 
I’ve been watching our area in the northeast for the last decade, thinking 
mostly about Snowy Owl incursions, and I’ve noticed strange changes in the 
distribution of cold across the arctic, perhaps changes in the “polar vortex” 
that seem to isolate the NE as a cold spot while Alaska warms up. The last ten 
years have shown Ithaca regularly with winter temperatures lower than Nome, 
Alaska. That isn’t right. 
 
  
 
Global warming at the poles doesn’t mean every place warms up, it means that 
the consistencies of weather patterns we could count on could be disrupted. 
Colder Ithaca winters and heat waves in Alaska are totally consistent with a 
global warming scenario. Freak arctic blasts into the rockies while the north 
pole melts also points to something freakishly abnormal happening, totally 
consistent with global warming.
 
  
 
Kevin
 
  
 
  
 
From: bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu 
On Behalf Of david nicosia
Sent: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 7:46 PM
To: Peter Saracino ; Jody Enck 
Cc: atvaw...@gmail.com; CAYUGABIRDS-L 
Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality
 
  
 
The western U.S has a history of extreme temperature changes. This event ranks 
number 3 for the biggest temperature swing in history and it occurred during 
fall migration. Most of the other big swings in temperature
 
occurred in the winter. What is dramatic is how cold it got and the early snows 
that fell. Temperatures in parts of the Rockies fell to 9F with winds over 50 
mph. That is insanely cold for so early in the season. The Arctic high pressure 
that came across the Rockies has denser and heavier air which flows downslope 
into California, and Oregon warming by compression leading to high winds and 
VERY dry conditions. This fuels the tremendous fires.  So in a sense it is the 
brutal unseasonable cold air that is the real cause of the conditions that 
caused the fires. I assume the fires, combined with temperatures in the 80, 90s 
and 100s dropping to the teens 20s and 30s in many areas in the Rockies with 
early snows was too much for many birds to handle causing the high mortality 
rates. I have read that people are blaming climate change on this. I don't see 
it because it is the intense cold that really fueled the fires in CA and OR and 
probably had a negative effect on the birds. Record cold of this magnitude is 
not consistent with global warming. 
 
  
 
  
 
On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 05:18:09 PM EDT, Jody Enck 
 wrote:
 
  
 
  
 
Thank, Pete, for passing along the Guardian article.  Additional information 
has been forthcoming recently.  Hypotheses include movements related to smoky 
conditions in some states, coupled with those weird temperature swings recorded 
last week (90 to 100 F one day and below freezing, with snow, the next day).  
Seems less likely to be a nefarious even (e.g., poisoning) than something more 
likely caused by challenging environmental factors.
 
  
 
I hope more information comes out soon.
 
 

 
Jody W. Enck, PhD
 
Conservation Social Scientist, and
 
Founder of the Sister Bird Club Network
 
607-379-5940
 
  
 
  
 
On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 5:03 PM Pete

RE: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[Kevin J. McGowan]

“Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with global warming. “

Why not? Global warming doesn’t mean warming happens all over the globe evenly. 
I’ve been watching our area in the northeast for the last decade, thinking 
mostly about Snowy Owl incursions, and I’ve noticed strange changes in the 
distribution of cold across the arctic, perhaps changes in the “polar vortex” 
that seem to isolate the NE as a cold spot while Alaska warms up. The last ten 
years have shown Ithaca regularly with winter temperatures lower than Nome, 
Alaska. That isn’t right.

Global warming at the poles doesn’t mean every place warms up, it means that 
the consistencies of weather patterns we could count on could be disrupted. 
Colder Ithaca winters and heat waves in Alaska are totally consistent with a 
global warming scenario. Freak arctic blasts into the rockies while the north 
pole melts also points to something freakishly abnormal happening, totally 
consistent with global warming.

Kevin


From: bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu 
 On Behalf Of david nicosia
Sent: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 7:46 PM
To: Peter Saracino ; Jody Enck 
Cc: atvaw...@gmail.com; CAYUGABIRDS-L 
Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

The western U.S has a history of extreme temperature changes. This event ranks 
number 3 for the biggest temperature swing in history and it occurred during 
fall migration. Most of the other big swings in temperature
occurred in the winter. What is dramatic is how cold it got and the early snows 
that fell. Temperatures in parts of the Rockies fell to 9F with winds over 50 
mph. That is insanely cold for so early in the season. The Arctic high pressure 
that came across the Rockies has denser and heavier air which flows downslope 
into California, and Oregon warming by compression leading to high winds and 
VERY dry conditions. This fuels the tremendous fires.  So in a sense it is the 
brutal unseasonable cold air that is the real cause of the conditions that 
caused the fires. I assume the fires, combined with temperatures in the 80, 90s 
and 100s dropping to the teens 20s and 30s in many areas in the Rockies with 
early snows was too much for many birds to handle causing the high mortality 
rates. I have read that people are blaming climate change on this. I don't see 
it because it is the intense cold that really fueled the fires in CA and OR and 
probably had a negative effect on the birds. Record cold of this magnitude is 
not consistent with global warming.


On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 05:18:09 PM EDT, Jody Enck 
mailto:jodye...@gmail.com>> wrote:


Thank, Pete, for passing along the Guardian article.  Additional information 
has been forthcoming recently.  Hypotheses include movements related to smoky 
conditions in some states, coupled with those weird temperature swings recorded 
last week (90 to 100 F one day and below freezing, with snow, the next day).  
Seems less likely to be a nefarious even (e.g., poisoning) than something more 
likely caused by challenging environmental factors.

I hope more information comes out soon.

Jody W. Enck, PhD
Conservation Social Scientist, and
Founder of the Sister Bird Club Network
607-379-5940


On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 5:03 PM Peter Saracino 
mailto:petersarac...@gmail.com>> wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/16/birds-falling-out-of-the-sky-in-mass-die-off-in-south-western-us-aoe


On Tue, Sep 15, 2020, 6:47 PM Tom 
mailto:atvaw...@gmail.com>> wrote:
I just learned of the mass mortality of migrating birds in New Mexico.  I read 
a CNN report.  Is there any new information on the cause?  They’re talking 
hundreds of thousands, even millions.

Tom V

Sent from my iPhone


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Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[david nicosia]

 The western U.S has a history of extreme temperature changes. This event ranks 
number 3 for the biggest temperature swing in history and it occurred during 
fall migration. Most of the other big swings in temperatureoccurred in the 
winter. What is dramatic is how cold it got and the early snows that fell. 
Temperatures in parts of the Rockies fell to 9F with winds over 50 mph. That is 
insanely cold for so early in the season. The Arctic high pressure that came 
across the Rockies has denser and heavier air which flows downslope into 
California, and Oregon warming by compression leading to high winds and VERY 
dry conditions. This fuels the tremendous fires.  So in a sense it is the 
brutal unseasonable cold air that is the real cause of the conditions that 
caused the fires. I assume the fires, combined with temperatures in the 80, 90s 
and 100s dropping to the teens 20s and 30s in many areas in the Rockies with 
early snows was too much for many birds to handle causing the high mortality 
rates. I have read that people are blaming climate change on this. I don't see 
it because it is the intense cold that really fueled the fires in CA and OR and 
probably had a negative effect on the birds. Record cold of this magnitude is 
not consistent with global warming. 

On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 05:18:09 PM EDT, Jody Enck 
 wrote:  
 
 Thank, Pete, for passing along the Guardian article.  Additional information 
has been forthcoming recently.  Hypotheses include movements related to smoky 
conditions in some states, coupled with those weird temperature swings recorded 
last week (90 to 100 F one day and below freezing, with snow, the next day).  
Seems less likely to be a nefarious even (e.g., poisoning) than something more 
likely caused by challenging environmental factors.
I hope more information comes out soon. 
Jody W. Enck, PhDConservation Social Scientist, andFounder of the Sister Bird 
Club Network607-379-5940

On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 5:03 PM Peter Saracino  wrote:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/16/birds-falling-out-of-the-sky-in-mass-die-off-in-south-western-us-aoe


On Tue, Sep 15, 2020, 6:47 PM Tom  wrote:

I just learned of the mass mortality of migrating birds in New Mexico.  I read 
a CNN report.  Is there any new information on the cause?  They’re talking 
hundreds of thousands, even millions.

Tom V

Sent from my iPhone


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Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[Jody Enck]

Thank, Pete, for passing along the Guardian article.  Additional
information has been forthcoming recently.  Hypotheses include movements
related to smoky conditions in some states, coupled with those weird
temperature swings recorded last week (90 to 100 F one day and below
freezing, with snow, the next day).  Seems less likely to be a nefarious
even (e.g., poisoning) than something more likely caused by challenging
environmental factors.

I hope more information comes out soon.

Jody W. Enck, PhD
Conservation Social Scientist, and
Founder of the Sister Bird Club Network
607-379-5940


On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 5:03 PM Peter Saracino 
wrote:

>
> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/16/birds-falling-out-of-the-sky-in-mass-die-off-in-south-western-us-aoe
>
>
> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020, 6:47 PM Tom  wrote:
>
>> I just learned of the mass mortality of migrating birds in New Mexico.  I
>> read a CNN report.  Is there any new information on the cause?  They’re
>> talking hundreds of thousands, even millions.
>>
>> Tom V
>>
>> Sent from my iPhone
>>
>>
>> --
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>>
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>> http://ebird.org/content/ebird/
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Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[Peter Saracino]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/16/birds-falling-out-of-the-sky-in-mass-die-off-in-south-western-us-aoe


On Tue, Sep 15, 2020, 6:47 PM Tom  wrote:

> I just learned of the mass mortality of migrating birds in New Mexico.  I
> read a CNN report.  Is there any new information on the cause?  They’re
> talking hundreds of thousands, even millions.
>
> Tom V
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
>
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[cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality

[Tom]

I just learned of the mass mortality of migrating birds in New Mexico.  I read 
a CNN report.  Is there any new information on the cause?  They’re talking 
hundreds of thousands, even millions.

Tom V

Sent from my iPhone


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