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Tomado de Stratfor:

Fujimori Capitulates - Washington Exhales

Summary

Last week, a videotape was released showing Vladimiro Montesinos,
head of Peru's National Intelligence Service (SIN), bribing an
opposition congressman. The release of the video is most likely
connected to the delivery of arms to a Colombian guerrilla group
one year ago. The disclosure of the videotape was likely an inside
job by a highly placed mole who may have been working for a U.S.
intelligence agency. Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori has
dissolved the SIN and announced new presidential elections. The
unexpected decision has diverted public interest from an arms
scandal that could potentially embarrass the United States, as
Montesinos' SIN and military intelligence services had been
cooperating with the United States in the drug war.


Analysis

On Sept. 16, President Alberto Fujimori announced new general
elections, in which he will not be a candidate, and dissolved the
feared National Intelligence Service (SIN) headed by his longtime
political associate Vladimiro Montesinos.

Fujimori's bombshell announcement came 48 hours after Fernando
Olivera of the opposition political party Frente Independiente
Moralizador (FIM) released a videotape of Montesinos handing
$15,000 in cash on May 5 to congressman Alberto Kouri of the
opposition Peru Posible party. Kouri was one of 17 opposition
legislators who switched parties after the April 9 elections in
which Fujimori's party won only 52 of 120 congressional seats.
Olivera claimed he has five more tapes that show Montesinos paying
cash bribes to four more congressmen who switched parties and to a
television media owner.
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Fujimori blamed the release of the videotape on forces opposed to
his policies. Olivera said he received the six tapes directly from
"patriotic" army intelligence officials. The tapes, however, were
probably given to him by a civilian official of the SIN and not by
army intelligence officers. The Peruvian military does not have a
tradition of loyalty to democracy. In fact, the country's top
generals, all of whom are intelligence veterans hand-picked by
Montesinos for their loyalty, were clearly stunned by the release
of the videotapes. Further, the Peruvian military did not have
direct access to the videotapes.

Someone with top-security clearance within the SIN, and with direct
access to Montesinos, likely gave Olivera the tape. The six
videotapes were originals taken from a library of more than 2,500
tightly-guarded, clandestine videotapes made by the SIN that
reportedly compromise Peruvian and foreign diplomats, politicians,
businessmen and journalists.

Olivera's party, the party of opposition presidential candidate
Alejandro Toledo, made the videotapes public three weeks after an
Aug. 21 press conference given by Fujimori and Montesinos. Fujimori
announced that the SIN had smashed an international gang that
fraudulently purchased 10,000 AK-47 rifles from the Jordanian army
by posing as Peruvian military officers. The weapons were later
air-dropped to the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) in
southern Colombia. Fujimori said the gang planned to sell
the FARC another 40,000 rifles. He also charged that Jordan's
former military chief, Abdul Hafez Mureji Kaabneh, and two other
Jordanian generals were involved.

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