-Caveat Lector- Dear Brigade, "... Buchanan aims to be the last friend of the working stiff in either party this year; the problem is, there aren't many Republican working stiffs. When I remarked to him that there were plenty of blue-collar Democrats who had no way of expressing support for him in a GOP primary, he replied: "There sure are." Buchanan did nothing to dismiss the third-party talk when we spoke; the night before, he'd said on TV that he had "impure thoughts" about bolting from the GOP. Conventional wisdom says that Buchanan, if he joins the Reform Party, will hurt Bush in the general election by stealing the social conservatives, but I bet he would steal an equal number of blue-collar workers from Gore or Bradley ..... As if to underscore that point, six tractor-trailers and about 400 Teamsters joined the Buchanan tent at the Ames straw poll. The union had bought tickets for its members, and, while the Teamsters didn't officially endorse Buchanan, he was clearly their man. Buchanan, drawing cheers from the truckers, decried the "big banks" trying to "deindustrialize America" before turning to the topic of Mexicans. "You put Pat Buchanan in the White House, and we'll put that border back up, and those trucks will never enter the United States of America," he said. The Teamsters, many of them Democrats, then marched over to vote." GO PAT GO!! Linda ---------------------------------------------- Field of Fewer Dreams by Dana Milbank The New Republic SEPTEMBER 6, 1999 Attention Presidential Candidates: You need votes? I need a new roof. Re-roof my house and you have my vote for both the straw poll and caucus; aerate my yard this fall and you have my wife's vote too. Serious inquiries only. Call (515) 633-0684. --A classified ad in The Des Moines Register, August 13 ames, iowa The african country of Mozambique sent a delegation of eight officials to Iowa last week on a "study mission" to observe the Republican Party's straw poll. The purpose was to pick up a few pointers for their new democracy's coming elections. But, after observing the straw poll myself, I wouldn't be surprised if the delegates returned home with the conclusion that, all in all, their old socialist regime wasn't such a bad form of government. For here is what they were exposed to in Iowa: n U.S. Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell, wearing a ponytail, bandanna, black leather vest, and skull-and-crossbones belt buckle, leading 250 similarly attired, Harley-riding toughs to the poll in support of Texas Governor George W. Bush n Candidate Gary Bauer, lion of the Christian right, marching in a state fair parade in downtown Des Moines with a ten-foot-tall elephant on wheels and supporters on in- line skates singing songs about Bauer to the tune of the "Gilligan's Island" theme song n Senator Orrin Hatch, a late entrant, trying to boost his meager prospects by busing in Ames chiropractors who had attended an alumni meeting at a chiropractic college n Steve Forbes, the multimillionaire publisher, building a massive, air- conditioned tent and an inflated theme park; hiring Ronnie Milsap; and flying two blimps over his encampment--outdoing Bush and former Vice President Dan Quayle, whose dirigibles hovered nearby n Roger Staubach stumping for Bush, Karl Malone stumping for Orrin Hatch, and Al Franken recording it all for George magazine (Franken asked Bauer at a press conference if he was worried about a millennial apocalypse ruining the 2000 election) n The one serious event, a debate, canceled because only three candidates-- Pat Buchanan, Hatch, and Lamar Alexander--agreed to participate n Large-scale vote-buying, with candidates paying a $25 admission fee for each of the 24,000 voters But, for all that, the Ames poll, dismissed as unscientific and a poor indicator of the desires of the electorate at large, turned out to be more democratic than anyone expected. Nearly 25,000 Iowans took part--a quarter of those who will vote in the actual caucus next winter. In that sense, the poll deserved the primary-like status the press accorded it. The contest generated the kind of enthusiasm for politics not usually seen until much later in an election: The Des Moines Register listed the daily whereabouts of candidates so readers could meet them. On the day before the poll, the event was such big news that it shared the top of the paper's front page with an "odor alert" declared because of a "foul smell" in the city (from animal by-products, apparently, not journalists). Whatever its merits, the poll has reshaped the Republican race in a fundamental way. Bush, who placed first, was confirmed as the front-runner, but he wasn't the real winner. Yes, the Texan shattered the previous record for total votes, but his victory was never in doubt. With a showing of 50 percent or even 40 percent, Bush could have clinched the nomination, short- circuiting the primary process. But, in the end, Bush got 31 percent of the vote, below his public opinion poll numbers. Suddenly, the primaries look competitive. The beneficiary of Bush's somewhat lackluster result is likely to be Forbes, who now has a credible measure of public support to go with his personal fortune. He may well be able to spend his way into a two-man race now. Finishing in second place at Ames, he far outpolled Bauer, the other semiplausible candidate of the religious right. If Forbes can consolidate conservatives, he'll make Bush's life miserable next year. After all, the conservative candidates in Ames--Forbes, Bauer, Buchanan, Alan Keyes, and Quayle--garnered a combined 47 percent of the votes, not far behind the 53 percent for the more moderate Bush, Elizabeth Dole, Alexander, and Hatch. Cheering for Forbes to weaken Bush will be Dole and John McCain. Dole, the third-place finisher, will now be seen, along with McCain--who sat out the straw poll--as a viable, mainstream alternative to Bush. They both assume that the conservative Forbes, though he may hurt Bush, is incapable of getting the nomination himself. The poll also cleared the field of Alexander (who has dropped out of the race) and Dan Quayle, who is determined to continue as a sideshow along with Hatch and Keyes. For Buchanan, who had a fair showing with fifth place, it's now decision time. The Iowa Republicans clearly endorsed the big-money, free-trading internationalism of Bush and Forbes, giving Buchanan good reason to bolt the party, perhaps to run on a populist Reform Party ticket. On straw poll day, I spent less time with the candidates than with the caterers. My theory was that the candidates who served the most lunch would receive the most votes. This was not a simple calculation to make, though, because the candidates served different portion sizes. Forbes, for example, used 3,000 pounds of pork to feed 7,000 people, according to his caterers, but Bush tried to stretch 4,000 pounds of meat to serve 13,000 people by supplementing it with 1,150 quarts of coleslaw. Alexander's caterer believed 400 pounds of pork and 1,500 pounds of ribs would feed 3,500 people, while Dole and Bauer, who shared a caterer, together used a mere 1,500 pounds of pork loin. Buchanan served more than 4,000 sandwiches and 3,700 ears of corn, but no one touched an entire roasted pig. Nevertheless, I assembled a meal tally (see Exhibit A), which turned out to be a more reliable predictor of the results than conventional means, such as opinion polls. With this information, we can draw the following conclusions about what Buchanan called the "main political event of 1999": (1) Dole and Bauer skimped on the pork loin; (2) many of those who ate Buchanan's corn and Alexander's barbecue did not vote for them. (That includes this correspondent, who was attracted by the shorter line at Alexander's tent.) But there are other, nonculinary observations that can also be made now that the Ames results are in. Here's how the Republican race will be reshaped by the straw poll. Bush: The Front-runner is Mortal Bush was supposed to host a "bass fishing" expedition on the morning of the straw poll, but there was little fishing and no bass. Instead, 300 supporters gathered around a murky pond, joined by actors doing tricks with firearms, a 30-foot fish tank on wheels, and a dozen camerapeople on a listing pontoon raft. The candidate emerged from a nearby lodge, accompanied, as many of us are when fishing, by various governors. As game-show music played, Bush stepped out on the dock and cast his line, then cast again, then miscast, nearly hooking the guy next to him, and finally cast once more before abandoning the endeavor. The whole thing took maybe ten minutes. Total Bush speaking time: 60 seconds. The Bush campaign has used such soft-focus, photo-op events brilliantly so far, but the momentum is becoming more difficult to sustain. Bush's less-than- overwhelming victory in Ames may make some journalists reconsider his inevitability. Many reporters have been gentle on the front-runner, but if they begin to sense weakness, they'll pile on. Also, the Republican candidates have started to attract attention for their attacks on Bush. Bauer got big coverage when he denounced Bush's "cavalier attitude," after Bush, in a Talk magazine profile, was portrayed as mocking a female murderer whose execution he had ordered. He also used the f-word. (Bush, not Bauer.) Even Hatch criticized Bush for the unproven cocaine-use rumors. "Bush needs to be more open," Hatch told me. "If he's made some mistakes, he's got to get them behind him." The Manchester, New Hampshire, Union Leader harshly declared: "The man has no ideas, and what's worse, he's apparently proud of it." Actually, I'm inclined to disagree with the Union Leader editorialists. I still believe there is substance to Bush. But he is so inaccessible, so doggedly determined to stick to the script, that it's impossible to tell whether it's the man or the man's advisers doing the thinking. His stump speech, though smooth, has hardly changed by a syllable since June. It starts, invariably, with the introduction of his wife, Laura. "The best decision I've ever made was to ask her to marry me," he said at his first stop in the Des Moines area after arriving on the eve of the poll. "I'm not sure the best decision she ever made was saying yes." Then, at the fishing event the next morning: "The best decision I ever made was asking her to marry me ...." That afternoon, I was walking by the Bush tent when I heard a familiar voice from within: "The best decision I ever made was asking Laura Welch to marry me .... " Bush would be wise to show more of himself if he wants to add depth to his support. For now, at least some of his supporters seem to be merely going along for the ride-- literally. Some 250 motorcyclists joined a ride to Ames called "Bikers for Bush." But several of the bikers wore Forbes pins and t- shirts; it turns out that it was a motorcycle-rights group, and many of the bikers simply rode along. "They asked us to make a showing," said Connie Slonaker, a Forbes backer who rode in the Bush procession. If Bush remains cloistered, the alternative is for the press to dog him with hostile questions wherever he goes--which can produce some bizarre results. When Bush landed in Des Moines, a reporter shouted a question. I couldn't hear the query over the whining jet engines, but Bush shouted back: " I accepted Jesus Christ. Billy Graham planted a seed. I'm a person who understands when I've got a log in my eye. I don't try to get a speck out of yours." This was the first religious conversation I'd heard on a tarmac. 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