-Caveat Lector-
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Wed, 04 Dec 2002 23:26:17 -0500
From: Jan George Frajkor <gfrajkor {@} CCS.CARLETON.CA>
Subject: Re: Doubt Cast on bin Laden Tape
>
> http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,1282,56670,00.html
> Doubt Cast on bin Laden Tape
>
> By Steve Kettmann
>
> 02:00 AM Dec. 03, 2002 PT
>
> Was that really Osama bin Laden's voice?
>
> And if so, does that mean the man the U.S. government calls public enemy
> No. 1 is alive?
>
> A Swiss institute that used state-of-the-art voice-recognition technology
> and computerized statistical models to analyze 90 minutes of available
> audiotape of bin Laden's voice believes the new tape may be a fake.
>
> "The best we can say is it's full of doubt," said Herve Bourlard,
> director
> of the Dalle Molle Institute for Perceptual Artificial Intelligence.
>
> Bourlard said Monday that the U.S. government should release old tapes of
> bin Laden so that scientific analysis can conclusively ID the tape as bin
> Laden or not bin Laden.
>
> As of now, if forced to make a conclusion, Bourlard said, he believes the
> voice on the tape is not that of bin Laden.
>
> "If we have people providing us with more recordings, we would be
> interested
> to process more," he said. "We are all set up and it would be easy to
> continue."
> ...text deleted
My own opinion, expressed many times since that tape was released,
was that it was the second of two "barium meal" tactics to try to smoke out
whether Osama is still alive.
For those not in the spy mode, a "barium meal" is what doctors will feed
you so that your insides show up on X-rays.
As a well-known spy tactic, it means putting out information that might
make the alleged issuer of the information indignant, and that he might
then take the trouble to come out openly and deny. If he does not, the
side that issued the information wins in the public eye (it thinks). If he
does, there is now a new trail to follow.
And if the whistle is finally blown on fakery, then the medium that
issued the information is discredited. In this case, al-Jazeera, the
Qatar TV station that is a thorn in the side of the US. al-Jazeera will be
laughed at as a station easily taken in by fakes, and after that ALL its
reports will be cast into doubt.
This is precisely what a good barium-meal tactic intends to do. That's
why think that is the case with these tapes.
There have been, lately, two or three incidents of barium-meal
tactics in connection with bin Laden. The first was the bombing
(apparently not a SUICIDE bombing) of a French tanker in the Gulf, followed
by a tape allegedly by bin Laden praising the bombing.
As we know, France is not militantly in favor of the US. An attack
on a French tanker hurts France economically, and if it can be blamed on
the Arabs and on bin Laden it achieves the purpose of turning French
opinion, and possibly smoking out bin Laden should he then come out and
say: "I never said that. .. France is behaving correctly." Even if he did
say that, that might also serve to discredit France in the eyes of the
anti-Iraq hawks.
So it was a clever tactic.
The second is this tape, in which France, Canada, and Germany are
specifically mentioned as possible attack targets.
As we all know, France, Germany and Canada have been reluctant
partners in a proposed war on Iraq; have resisted US unilateralism; have
insisted on UN authorization for action, and none are enthusiastic about
Israeli policies towards the Palestinians.
It makes no sense to me that a man presumably as intelligent as bin
Laden would deliberately antagonize countries which, even if they are not
his allies, are not backing his enemies. And he cannot come out and deny
the tape, because, as above, issuing a public denial would create a new
trail to follow to him; would discredit al-Jazeera, and in any case would
do no good. I cannot imagine that bin Laden's declaration of love for
France, Canada, and Germany would enhance their status in the West.
Therefore: I think the tapes are fakes. And the tactics are very
clever, as the US has nothing to lose and lots to gain by doing so. Look
for more such.
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