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-Caveat Lector- http://www.rieas.gr
Al-Qaida: The History Theory
The Research Institute for European and American Studies (RIEAS)
2 September 2004
Hans de Vreij
(Security and Defence Editor)
Copyright: Radio Netherlands on line
Note: Radio Netherlands Lorenza Bacino speaks to J.J.G. Jansen of the
University of Utrecht
The battle of Poitiers in 732, Spain 1492, Vienna 1693 and Turkey 1917.These
combinations of years and places most probably mean little or nothing at all
to the average Westerner in 2004. Yet the events to which they refer are all
significant moments in the history of two religions: Islam and Christianity.
In 732, Christian forces engaged in battle near the French town of Poitiers
with a Muslim army which had managed to advance some considerable way across
the continent. The Muslim forces were defeated.
Prior to 1492, southern Spain – Andalusia and Granada – had been an
important Islamic stronghold inside Europe. In that year, however, the
Muslims were driven from Spain completely by Catholic forces.
In 1693, a decisive battle was fought and won outside the gates of Vienna
against Muslim forces which had left Turkey, crossed the Balkans, and were
marching across Europe. And 1917 saw Turkey's – Islamic – Ottoman Empire
crumble and then collapse following its defeat by the allied powers – chief
among them Great Britain and France – during the First World War.
History?s importance to al-Qaeda According to some academic researchers,
these events from history play a very significant role in the thought
processes of the al-Qaeda terrorist network and related radical Islamic
groups.
As these specialists see it, the idea of wreaking revenge for past defeats
and humiliations is a key goal for such groups, alongside more contemporary
motivations such as the desire to wage war against the "Western" and
"Christian" occupation of Iraq or against those who launched attacks on the
Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.
Israeli security expert Giora Shamis believes Osama bin Laden's so-called
"fatwas" and the thousands of documents placed on the Internet by al-Qaeda
and similar groups even provide a basis to draw up a list of likely
"historical targets" for attacks in or close to Europe. Turkey heads that
list, followed by Spain. The next target could be Rome – the centre of power
of Roman Catholicism – followed by Vienna, where al-Qaeda might attempt to
avenge the aforementioned defeat of 1693.
Clues on the Web
According to Mr Shamis "Only now is the intelligence community beginning to
search the Internet thoroughly for relevant information. Much has already
been said there, quite openly." He adds that: "Curiously enough, the attacks
in Madrid had already been announced in advance on the Web. A researcher at
Norway's FFI defence institute came across the relevant document in December
last year, but did nothing with the information."
Hans Jansen, a Dutch expert on the Arab World and Islam, also stresses that,
in addition to the more immediate issues on which al-Qaeda focuses, history
is a key factor in its philosophy.
Asked about the possibility of Rome being a future target, he replies: "I
can well imagine that being the case because there are certain statements –
attributed to the Prophet Mohammed, who died in the year 632 AD – in which
the speaker says that Rome will fall. The men who assassinated Egyptian
President Anwar al-Sadat in 1981 also spoke of Rome being conquered in the
name of Islam".
A dream of total victory
"There are certainly a number of Muslims who remember very clearly that the
Muslim advance into Europe [was] stopped in 1693 at the gates of Vienna",
says Hans Jansen, who sees al-Qaeda as acting out "a fantasy, a romantic
dream of total victory." He believes they want to see Islam triumph over and
destroy the West, thus proving its ultimate superiority. While this is not
what all Muslims want at all, Mr Jansen says it is the dream of some and:
"that makes things very difficult because it renders it more or less
impossible to predict what kind of action that dream will result in next."
He also says it is difficult to draw a clear line between the contemporary
causes – such as Iraq and Afghanistan – and the historical motives that
prompt al-Qaeda's attacks. "The kind of intervention we've seen in Iraq has
the effect of making some people dream that dream even harder. But the main
aim is a kind of doomsday vision in which Islam will be triumphant - and the
West stands in the way of that triumph becoming reality."
The problem will not go away According to Hans Jansen, the possible
resolution of current political problems in the Middle East will not mean an
end to attacks by radical Islamic groups.
"I don't think that if, for example, the question of Israel and the
Palestinians were to be resolved or after democratic elections have been
held in Iraq, that those who have this vision will then stop dreaming of
destroying the ‘anti-Islamic' world. This is a problem we are going to have
to live with for some time to come."
Less risk to the Netherlands?
On a local note, Hans Jansen believes the Netherlands is at less risk of
being the target of attacks compared to other European nations - that is if
the only basis one takes is that of the historical motive theory.
"The Ottoman Empire was an important ally of the Netherlands during the
Eighty Years' War against Spain [which once ruled the Netherlands and what
is now Belgium] and was also the first "country" to officially recognise the
Netherlands as an independent nation."
Please let us stay on topic and be civil.-Home Page- www.cia-drugs.org
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