-Caveat Lector-

U.N. says Taliban's destruction will mean more opium

http://www.google.com/search?q=cache:VMchRLlBBlE:www.agriculture.com/worldwide/AgricultureFarming/10_19_2001.reulb-story-bcpakistanafghanopium.html+taliban+opium&hl=en

ISLAMABAD, Oct 19 (Reuters) - The destruction of Afghanistan's ruling
Taliban will almost certainly trigger a rise in opium production, the U.N.
Drug Control Programme said on Friday.

     The warning from Bernard Frahi, head of the UNDCP office for
southwest Asia, came only two days after the programme put out an annual
report showing a dramatic fall in production over the past year because of
a rigid Taliban ban on growing opium poppies.

     ``We have been told that farmers are resuming poppy cultivation in
several areas,'' Frahi told Reuters, listing regions that are in the
Taliban-held part of Afghanistan where U.S. and British planes began
bombing on October 7.

     ``Fields are being prepared for the planting which starts in
mid-October, so it started yesterday, and continues until the end of
November,'' said the French narcotics expert.

     The harvest is in April and May.

     Frahi attributed renewed cultivation mainly to farmers' expectations
that the Taliban administration, busy fighting for its existence against
U.S. attacks, will not be able to enforce its ban on poppy cultivation.

     In addition, Frahi warned that the cut-off of outside sources of
funds for the Taliban and the al Qaeda network of Osama bin Laden -- chief
suspect in the September 11 attacks on the United States -- could drive
them into partnership with drug smugglers.

     ``Terrorist groups inside Afghanistan don't have any funding anymore
so of course they will look for immediate funding. What would be the best
thing to smuggle today?'' Frahi said. ``We might see a convergence between
the clandestine networks for trafficking and terrorism.''

     U.N.-TALIBAN COOPERATION

     Frahi said it was impossible to estimate the rise in production
because the UNDCP has been unable to monitor what is happening in
Afghanistan since all foreign staff were evacuated following the September
attacks on New York and Washington.

     But their programme had enjoyed its most dramatic success in the past
year, thanks to a decree by Taliban spiritual leader Mullah Mohammad Omar
in July 2000 banning opium cultivation.

     At first dismissed by Washington, the Taliban ban was firmly enforced
and UNDCP teams that surveyed the country this year expressed amazement at
the conversion of fields from lucrative poppies to wheat.

     In contrast, production of poppies, which are turned into opium and
eventually heroin, soared in the small northeastern area of Afghanistan
controlled by the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance.

     Overall production in Afghanistan, which had been the world's largest
producer, dropped 94 percent in one year -- to an estimated 185 tonnes
compared to 3,276 tonnes in 2000.

     Frahi said the fall in production last crop year had not translated
into a reduction in supply or a rise in heroin prices on the streets of
Europe, where most Afghan opium production has headed, because of stocks
left from previous years.

     However, he was sceptical of western charges that the Taliban
themselves were trafficking in drugs, saying old stocks had been held by
everyone along the supply chain from farmers, to local buyers, to the
smugglers who send it out of the country.

     ``If the Taliban had organised the drug trafficking, they would have
kept the production,'' said Frahi, a former lawyer who spent 10 years with
French narcotics police.

     In an endorsement of the cooperation the United Nations has received
from the Taliban, Frahi said control of future Afghan opium production
would depend on which government succeeds the Taliban.

     ``We have to remain optimistic that we will get a broad-based
government ... and at high political levels we will have the same support
to do this kind of intervention,'' he said.

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