-Caveat Lector- Financial Vulnerabilities Conference THE NEXT FINANCIAL CRISIS: WARNING SIGNS, DAMAGE CONTROL, AND IMPACT Keynote Speaker: ALAN GREENSPAN July 12-13, 2000 Agenda Wednesday, July 12 11:00 - 12:00 p.m. REGISTRATION 12:00 - 1:40 p.m. LUNCHEON IT'S THE FINANCIAL MARKETS, STUPID! A Dialogue with Hannes Androsch and Henry Kaufman How is the current "marketized" environment different from past eras? In this new environment, are markets even more prone to excesses that lead to instability? Does this instability create new complications for foreign policy and national security? What can be done? Hannes Androsch, Chairman, Androsch International Management Consulting; former Vice Chancellor of Austria Henry Kaufman, President, Henry Kaufman & Company, Inc. Presider: Leslie H. Gelb, President, Council on Foreign Relations 1:40 - 2:20 p.m. Break 2:20 - 3:20 p.m. STRESS TESTING THE SYSTEM War-gaming the next financial crisis: Learning from the Council's Policy Simulation. Jessica Einhorn, former Managing Director, The World Bank James R. Jones, Senior Counsel, Manatt, Phelps & Phillips; former Chairman & CEO, American Stock Exchange Presider: Roger M. Kubarych, Henry Kaufman Senior Fellow for International Economics & Finance, Council on Foreign Relations 3:20- 3:40 p.m. Break 3:40 - 4:45 p.m. BREAKOUT SESSIONS I : WARNING SIGNS AND DAMAGE CONTROL Financial, Economic & Political Stress Testing Participants will attend one of the four Regional Breakout Groups OR the Workshop on Scenario Building and Simulations A: Regional Breakout Groups: What are the regional and country vulnerabilities and pressure points? What are the implications? · Group 1: China Robert S. Ross, Prfessor, Harvard University, Fairbank Center for East Asian Research Donald Roth, Managing Partner, Emerging Markets Partnership Presider: Winston Lord, former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs; former U.S. Ambassador to China · Group 2: Latin America Lacey Gallagher, Director, Latin America Economies, Credit Suisse First Boston Corporation Martin Schubert, Chairman, Eurinam Group Presider: Brian O’Neill, Latin America Regional Executive, The Chase Manhattan Corporation · Group 3: South Asia Punita Kumar-Sinha, Senior Portfolio Manager and Executive Director, CIBC Oppenheimer David Unger, Editorial Board, The New York Times Presider: Robert J. Pelosky, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter · Group 4: Sub-Saharan Africa Kwesi Botchwey, Director of Africa Research and Programs, Center for International Development, Harvard University; former Minister of Finance, Republic of Ghana Brian C. McK. Henderson, Senior Vice President, Merrill Lynch International, Inc. Presider: Vincent Mai, Chairman & CEO, AEA Investors Inc. B: Workshop on Scenario Building and Simulations A practical guide for designing and using simulation as a tool for improved risk-management and strategic-planning. William J. Flanagan, Senior Managing Director, Cantor Fitzgerald Peter Schwartz, Chairman, Global Business Network; former head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Presider: David A. Duffie, Visiting Military Fellow 1999-00, Council on Foreign Relations 4:45 - 5:10 p.m. Break 5:10 - 6:10 p.m. BREAKOUT SESSIONS II : WARNING SIGNS AND DAMAGE CONTROL Financial, Economic & Political Stress Testing Participants will attend one of the four Regional Breakout Groups OR the Workshop on Scenario Building and Simulations A: Regional and Country Breakout Groups: What are the regional and country vulnerabilities and pressure points? What are the implications? · Group 1: Europe and Russia Scott Horton, Senior Partner, Patterson, Belknap, Webb & Tyler Heiko Thieme, Chairman & President, American Heritage Management Corporation Martin Walker, Public Policy Fellow, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars* Presider: Charles A. Kupchan, Senior Fellow & Director, European Studies, Council on Foreign Relations · Group 2: Japan Gerry Curtis, Professor of Political Science, Columbia University Kathleen R. Flaherty, President & COO, Winstar International Presider: Bernard Wysocki, Economic News Editor, The Wall Street Journal · Group 3: North Africa and the Middle East Mohammed Abalkhail, former Minister of Finance and National Economy, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Frank Savage, Chairman, Alliance International Capital Management Presider: Edward Djerejian, Director, The James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy; former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs; former U.S. Ambassador to Israel and the Syrian Arab Public · Group 4: Southeast Asia Kishore Mahbubani, Ambassador, Permanent Mission of the Republic of Singapore to the UN Tien-Yu Sieh, Senior Vice President and Equity Portfolio Manager, Scudder Kemper Investments, Inc. Dov Zakheim, CEO, SPC International Corp. Presider: Kathryn Pilgrim, Anchor/Correspondent, CNN B: Workshop on Scenario Building and Simulations A practical guide for designing and using simulation as a tool for improved risk-management and strategic-planning Peter Schwartz, Chairman, Global Business Network; former head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Presider: David Gordon, National Intelligence Officer, National Intelligence Council 6:30 - 7:30 p.m. COCKTAIL RECEPTION 7:30 - 9:00 p.m. Dinner at the Yale Club How to improve decision-making in an increasingly complex global system. Keynote Speaker: ALAN GREENSPAN, Chairman, Board of Governers of the Federal Reserve System Introduction by: Peter G. Peterson, Chairman, The Blackstone Group; Chairman, Council on Foreign Relations Thursday, July 13 8:00 - 8:30 a.m. CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST 8:30 - 10:00 a.m. A THREE-WAY DEBATE: HIGH-TECH BUBBLE - OR NOT? Yes, and when it bursts, it will bring down the rest of the market. Robert Shiller, Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics, Cowles Foundation, Yale University Yes, but the market at large can absorb the shock. Craig Drill, Chairman & CEO, Craig Drill Partners No, it’s a precursor of better things to come for the market at large. Lawrence Kudlow, Chief Economist, Schroders Presider: Robert D. Hormats, Vice President, Goldman Sachs International; former Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs 10:00 - 10:30 a.m. Break 10:30 - 11:45 a.m. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Another 1987-Like Market Break? What Might Be the Economic and Political Backlashes? Will Main Street stick with Wall Street in the next financial crisis? How will the public respond given the greater participation of average investors in the markets? Will there be a political backlash? What could be done to deal with the markets, possible lawsuits and political reaction? Is the international spread of an equity culture at risk? John J. Brennan, Chairman & CEO, The Vanguard Group, Inc. James Grant, Editor, Grant's Interest Rate Observer Presider: George J.W. Goodman, Chairman & CEO, Adam Smith Global Television 11:45 - 12:15 p.m. Break 12:15 - 2:00 p.m. LUNCHEON PANEL: LOOKING BEYOND NEAR-TERM VULNERABILITIES: THE NEXT MARKET DRIVERS What will be the next compelling investment story? Can information technology continue to lead the financial markets? Or will exciting advances in human genome science, robotics or other technologies move to the fore? Ray Kurzweil, Inventor, entrepreneur, and author of The Age of Spiritual Machines Presider: Maurice R. Greenberg, Chairman & CEO, American International Group, Inc.; Vice Chairman, Council on Foreign Relations -- ============================ -- CUT OUT THE MIDDLEMEN -- JUST VOTE FOR A CORPORATION ============================ <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. 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