-Caveat Lector-

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Fin-de-Siecle


Fed Sells Y2K Liquidity Options


Just in case you run out of money--have we got a deal for you.

The New York Federal Reserve has sold almost $370bn in "liquidity options" to
leading banks in an effort to quell panic about the millennium bug.

Bankers said the popularity of the options, which offer buyers insurance
against the possibility that markets could dry up because of Y2K problems,
had already eased fears about the bug.

The New York Fed, which conducts open market operations on behalf of the US
Federal Reserve in Washington, said it is planning further auctions of
liquidity options in the next few weeks.

The Fed's unprecedented venture into options sales has turned it into one of
the biggest derivatives dealers in the world - an unaccustomed role for the
guardian of US monetary stability.

The liquidity options are especially popular with marketmakers, because they
assure their funding even if financial markets should suddenly dry up over
the end of the year.

"The markets were expecting liquidity to get progressively worse as the
millennium approached, but liquidity has improved in the past two weeks,"
said Avinash Persaud, head of global research at State Street Bank. "Part of
this can be attributed to the success of the Fed's liquidity options."

The options, which are legitimate for five days and encompass three five-day
periods starting December 23, December 30 and January 6, give the holder the
right to access cash from the Fed at a "strike" price of 150 basis points
over the Fed funds rate.

This means the options would be exercised if liquidity dried up to such an
extent that it was only available from the normal inter-bank market at a
higher spread than 150 basis points over the Fed funds rate.

Bankers say that the popularity of the options combined with the Fed's
decision to expand the pool of collateral available to the market to borrow
money from its discount window had significantly eased fears of a liquidity
crunch over the millennium.

"We believe the markets have understood our message that we want the
transition to the new millennium to be as smooth as possible," said an
official at the Fed in New York.

Concerns have also been eased by the belief in bond markets that there is
little possibility that the Federal Reserve and the European central banks
will raise interest rates in the near future.

The Fed and other central banks have printed additional supplies of banknotes
in case of a rush by individuals to hold cash over the new year.
The Financial Times, November 23, 1999


Oil Market


Iraq Embargo Drives Oil Price to 9-Year High


More New World Disorder.

World oil prices leapt to a nine-year high yesterday after Iraq began
implementing a weekend threat to halt 2.2m barrels a day of exports under the
United Nations oil-for-food programme.

The Iraqi move appeared to be intended to exploit divisions in the UN
security council over the international community's sanctions regime imposed
on Iraq after its 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

It came as security council members negotiated ways to relax mandatory
sanctions on Iraq in exchange for Baghdad agreeing to a new arms control
regime. The US and Britain have argued that any easing of sanctions should
only go ahead after Baghdad has demonstrated that it will co-operate with UN
arms inspectors. France, Russia and China have advocated a more relaxed
approach.

In London, oil prices opened at $25.90 a barrel, the highest level since the
1991 Gulf War, after Amir Mohammed Rasheed, Iraq's oil minister, confirmed
that Baghdad would not agree to a proposed two-week extension of the current
phase of a programme under which Iraq is allowed to export oil to fund food
and medicine imports.

In late trading the January futures contract for Brent oil, an international
price benchmark, was quoted at $25.58 a barrel, 51 cents up on Friday's close.

The Iraqi decision highlighted Baghdad's ability to disrupt world oil markets
in spite of the tight sanctions regime.

Diplomats pointed out that until Baghdad made its surprise announcement on
Saturday, Iraq had been working normally with UN staff on details of a new,
seventh, six-month phase of the oil-for-food programme, due to start shortly.
Under the programme Iraq is allowed to sell $5.2bn worth of oil every six
months.

Kofi Annan, the UN secretary-general, yesterday expressed optimism that a way
would be found to defuse the latest crisis over sanctions.

The security council is trying to agree on a new sanctions package that would
allow for foreign investment in Iraq's oil industry, while ensuring that the
arms embargo stayed.

Madeleine Albright, the US secretary of state, said Iraq had once again
"shown its true colours . . . by turning down the possibility of having more
food and medicine for its people by selling more oil".

A prolonged suspension of Iraqi oil exports could have a big impact on world
oil prices, which have more than doubled this year as a result of production
cuts by leading exporters and a decline in surplus inventories in the main
consuming countries. It could also exacerbate global inflation levels.
The Financial Times, November 23, 1999


US Politics


Was John McCain Brainwashed?


Clinton didn't release his records. Why release yours?

SENATOR John McCain, the leading challenger to the runaway campaign of George
W Bush for the Republican presidential nomination, will release his medical
records this week to show that he is not "nuts".

Mr McCain, who spent five and a half years in a North Vietnamese prison camp
after his US navy fighter was shot down in 1968, is responding to what his
aides say is a whispering campaign to suggest he is mentally unfit for the
White House.

Although trailing badly in national polls, the Arizona senator is
neck-and-neck with Mr Bush in the crucial state of New Hampshire, which is
first to hold a primary election. Asked about the rumours surrounding his
psychological health, Mr McCain said: "First of all, you have to be half nuts
to run for President. So I accept the charge."

His campaign manager, Senator Chuck Nagel of Nebraska, said: "Some of my
Senate colleagues want to drive a stake through John McCain's heart. Their und
erlying message is that John is nuts and shouldn't be around any kind of
button that could lead to nuclear war." Mr McCain said that to set the record
straight, he would publish a 350-page report on his medical history. Mr
McCain was severely beaten during his captivity and is still unable to raise
his arms high enough to comb his hair. But he denied that anything had
happened to make him unsuitable for the role of President. He said: "The fact
is that I'm a far better man for having had the experience that I had. I
learned the meaning of friendship and comradeship and love and compassion and
learned many of my own failings."

If there is a covert attempt to portray Mr McCain as unstable it may
backfire, because his opinion poll ratings have always risen substantially
whenever he has had any opportunity to demonstrate his war record.

The London Telegraph, November 23, 1999

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Em Hotep, Peace Be,
Omnia Bona Bonis,
All My Relations.
Adieu, Adios, Aloha.
Amen.
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