-Caveat Lector- George & Tony – friends forever?
Patrick J. Buchanan
Posted: March 24, 2003
1:00 a.m. Eastern

© 2003 Creators Syndicate, Inc.



Even conservatives who prefer that the cousins across the pond choose Tory leaders find much to admire in Tony Blair. He is arguably America's best friend. In the war on terror and the war in Afghanistan, this "Friend of Bill" (Clinton) has been a second U.S. secretary of state, traveling the world to line up support.

President Bush seated him in the place of honor at his State of the Union. When Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schroeder marshaled opposition to war in Iraq, Blair sent tens of thousands of British troops to the Gulf. He put his career on the line, though his nation is opposed the war.

On the Friday before the Azores summit, Blair got his reward: a Bush commitment to the "road map" in the Middle East. The road map is the U.S.-E.U.-U.N.-Russian step-by-step plan that would deliver an independent Palestinian state by 2005.

Blair relied on that commitment to carry the day in parliament for war. This proves we are even-handed, said Blair. Those who say we use a double standard in the Middle East do not speak the truth. We fight, he said, for the liberation of Iraq from a tyrant, and for an independent and free Palestine.

Here, everyone believes that the Bush Rose Garden embrace of the road map – and the Azores summit – were to save Tony Blair. But unfortunately for Blair, he is waving about an IOU on which his best friend will have to default. Why? Because this road map has been rejected by Ariel Sharon, and – in an election year – George W. Bush is not going to squeeze a prime minister of Israel.

The road map is as dead as Oslo, and a falling out between Bush and Blair seems certain. As the Guardian's Chris McGreal writes, Sharon already insists that the road map's idea of an independent Palestinian state be replaced by the idea of a state "with certain attributes of sovereignty." Sharon also insists that Israel "retain control of the state's external security, borders, airspace and underground water resources and ... have a veto over treaties with other countries."

The Palestinians say they must agree to any amendments to the road map. But, as James Bennet of the New York Times writes, when Bush appeared in the Rose Garden, he "pleased Israelis and dismayed Palestinians by describing the draft proposal as open to amendment and saying, 'We will expect and welcome contributions from Israel and the Palestinians to this document that will advance true peace."

Other members of the "quartet" – Russia, the United Nations, the European Union – see the road map as a fixed document. George W. Bush does not.

On the issue of settlements, Blair's interpretation is that all new Israeli construction on the West Bank must stop when the road map is published. But U.S. policy has changed. Years ago, the United States considered Israeli settlements on occupied land to be illegal. Now, Bush accepts them. "[S]ettlement activity must end," says Bush, but only "as progress is made toward peace."

There are other differences. Where Blair sees parallel steps by Palestinians and Israelis toward peace, Sharon sees the process as "sequential." Palestinians perform, and Israel decides whether to follow. What is Israel's indispensable first condition?

The Palestinians must dismantle all terrorist groups and halt all violence before a return to negotiations. This gives the suicide bombers of Hamas veto power over peace. They will exercise it.

Blair only deludes himself if he believes Bush will force Ariel Sharon to accept what Sharon has already rejected – surrender of the West Bank to Palestinians to let them establish a state that is sovereign over tens of thousands of Jewish settlers.

Has Blair forgotten? Sharon opposed Oslo. He opposed Camp David. He opposed the Saudi plan. Unlike Yitzhak Rabin, who died for the principle, Sharon does not believe in land-for-peace and heads a far-right regime that will never tear down Jewish settlements, nor accede to a Palestinian capital in Jerusalem, nor yield sovereignty over the Temple Mount, nor allow the return of Palestinian refugees.

If Bush tried to force Sharon to make such concessions, Sharon would charge him with a "Munich," forcing Israel to yield to terrorists. Bush would find himself under fire from evangelical Christians, the Israeli lobby, the neocon columnists and magazines, Republicans, and Democrats who would relish an opportunity to reverse the gains Bush and Karl Rove have made with the Jewish community.

If Bush's choice is between making Blair unhappy or enraging Ariel Sharon – and it will come to that – Blair will find out that political survival for U.S. presidents usually trumps the best of old friendships.



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