-Caveat Lector-
http://truthout.org/docs_03/031603B.shtml
Classified State Department Report: Bushs Democracy Domino Theory
'Not Credible'
By Greg Miller
LA Times
Friday 14 March 2003
A State Department report disputes Bush's claim that ousting
Hussein will spur reforms in the Mideast, intelligence officials
say.
WASHINGTON -- A classified State Department report expresses doubt
that installing a new regime in Iraq will foster the spread of
democracy in the Middle East, a claim President Bush has made in
trying to build support for a war, according to intelligence
officials familiar with the document.
The report exposes significant divisions within the Bush
administration over the so-called democratic domino theory, one of
the arguments that underpins the case for invading Iraq.
The report, which has been distributed to a small group of top
government officials but not publicly disclosed, says that daunting
economic and social problems are likely to undermine basic
stability in the region for years, let alone prospects for
democratic reform.
Even if some version of democracy took root an event the report
casts as unlikely anti-American sentiment is so pervasive that
elections in the short term could lead to the rise of
Islamic-controlled governments hostile to the United States.
"Liberal democracy would be difficult to achieve," says one passage
of the report, according to an intelligence official who agreed to
read portions of it to The Times.
"Electoral democracy, were it to emerge, could well be subject to
exploitation by anti-American elements."
The thrust of the document, the source said, "is that this idea
that you're going to transform the Middle East and fundamentally
alter its trajectory is not credible."
Even the document's title appears to dismiss the administration
argument. The report is labeled "Iraq, the Middle East and Change:
No Dominoes."
The report was produced by the State Department's Bureau of
Intelligence and Research, the in-house analytical arm.
State Department officials declined to comment on the report.
Intelligence officials said the report does not necessarily reflect
the views of Secretary of State Colin L. Powell or other senior
State Department officials.
Daunting Challenges
The obstacles to reform outlined in the report are daunting.
"Middle East societies are riven" by political, economic and social
problems that are likely to undermine stability "regardless of the
nature of any externally influenced or spontaneous, indigenous
change," the report said, according to the source.
The report is dated Feb. 26, officials said, the same day Bush
endorsed the domino theory in a speech to the conservative American
Enterprise Institute in Washington.
It's not clear whether the president has seen the report, but such
documents are typically distributed to top national security
officials.
"A new regime in Iraq would serve as a dramatic and inspiring
example of freedom for other nations in the region," Bush said.
Other top administration officials, including Vice President Dick
Cheney, have made similar remarks in recent months.
But the argument has been pushed hardest by a group of officials
and advisors who have been the leading proponents of going to war
with Iraq. Prominent among them are Paul D. Wolfowitz, the deputy
defense secretary, and Richard Perle, chairman of the Defense
Policy Board, an influential Pentagon advisory panel.
Wolfowitz has said that Iraq could be "the first Arab democracy"
and that even modest democratic progress in Iraq would "cast a very
large shadow, starting with Syria and Iran but across the whole
Arab world."
Similarly, Perle has said that a reformed Iraq "has the potential
to transform the thinking of people around the world about the
potential for democracy, even in Arab countries where people have
been disparaging of their potential."
White House officials hold out the promise of a friendly and
functional government in Baghdad to contrast with administration
portrayals of President Saddam Hussein's regime as brutal and bent
on building his stock of biological and chemical weapons.
The domino theory also is used by the administration as a
counterargument to critics in Congress and elsewhere who have
expressed concern that invading Iraq will inflame the Muslim world
and fuel terrorist activity against the United States.
But the theory is disputed by many Middle East experts and is
viewed with skepticism by analysts at the CIA and the State
Department, intelligence officials said.
Divisions in Iraq
Critics say even establishing a democratic government in Iraq will
be extremely difficult. Iraq is made up of ethnic groups deeply
hostile to one another. Ever since its inception in 1932, the
country has known little but bloody coups and brutal dictators.
Even so, it is seen by some as holding more democratic potential
because of its wealth and educated population than many of its
neighbors.
By some estimates, 65 million adults in the Middle East can't read
or write, and 14 million are unemployed, with an exploding, poorly
educated youth population.
Given such trends, "we'll be lucky to have strong central
governments [in the Middle East], let alone democracy," said one
intelligence official with extensive experience in the region.
The official stressed that no one in intelligence or diplomatic
circles opposes the idea of trying to install a democratic
government in Iraq.
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