-Caveat Lector- WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War!
Q. You gave an interview with Salon magazine in which you commented on the population crisis in Russia. It is true that the population of Russia is declining, especially the population of ethnic Russians. The government has taken some steps to try to encourage ethnic Russians living in former Soviet republics to return to their Motherland. You predicted that because of the shrinking Russian population and the growing numbers of Chinese inhabitants of certain areas of eastern Russia, eventually Russia will lose these areas. In your opinion, is there anything that Russia can do to prevent this? A. With the Russian empire having gone the way of all the other Western empires, Russians should come home to preserve and protect Mother Russia. For Russia, my figures are that the present population of about 145 million will fall to 114 million by 2050. I had the UN project the trend out to the end of the century. The UN experts say that Russia’s population, at present birth rates, will fall to 80 million by 2100, or as many people as America had in 1905. Russia cannot hold on to an area twice the size of the United States with that small a population, especially with a hungry neighbor like China, which will outnumber Russia 15-1 in 2050. In east Asia, there will be perhaps a hundred Chinese to every Russian. Incidentally, Mr. Putin, who is quoted in The Death of the West, is more pessimistic in his population numbers than I. He says it could go as low as 123 million -- a loss of one seventh of the nation -- by 2015. That is more Russians lost in 15 years than perished in Hitler’s War. I think the Chinese will take the Russian far east, especially the pieces the czar took between 1858-1860, around Manchuria, the way the Americans took Texas. We just moved in until we out-numbered the local Mexican population ten-to-one. Unless Russia can turn its birth rate around, which is only half of what is needed to replace existing population, I don’t know how you do it. Bringing Russians home from the old Soviet republics is a necessary step, but let us concede the truth: It is also another demonstration of the historic retreat of the West back into the base camp from which the West broke out in the 16th, 17th and 18th centuries to rule the world. From my studies, there is a direct co-relation between faith and birth rates. For example, Japan, which had to abandon its old faith and emperor worship at the end of World War II, is now the oldest nation on earth, with a median age of 41. This is why it has lost its dynamism. By 2050, the median age of Italy and Spain will be 54 and 55 years old. A third of Europe will be over 60. The German population will have fallen by 23 million, to 57 million. These dying Europeans will need millions of Arab and African immigrants just to take care of them. Between now and 2050, Asia, Africa and Latin America will add 3 billion more people -- or 30 new Mexicos! -- while Europe loses the equivalent of the entire population of Belgium, Holland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Germany. Europe’s native-born population will fall by 125 million by mid-century. But it is impossible to find a single Islamic nation where the population is not soaring. Do I know how to turn this around? Yes, but it would require a great religious awakening or mass conversion of European and Russian women to the idea of having big families again. I don’t see that happening. This is beyond politics; it is about faith and belief. Solzhenitzyn was right when he told the astonished dons of Harvard that the problem with America and the West was that "Men have forgotten God." Vaclav Havel says we are trying to construct the "first atheistic civilization" in history. Indeed we are; and that civilization is dying, through it is going out in style. Q. Is a war between Russia and China inevitable? A. I believe China intends to consolidate its position in Tibet and its west by moving Han Chinese in by the millions. It will then occupy the disputed islands of the South China Sea, the Paracels and Spratlys. Then, it will take the Senkakus from Japan and move to bring Taiwan "back into the embrace of the Motherland." All the while, Chinese traders and workers will move into far eastern Russia, especially into the territories north of Manchuria, along the Ussuri and Amur rivers, where there were pitched battles when I was in the Nixon White House in early 1969. The Chinese are patient, and they believe, not without reason, that they were robbed of territory and humiliated by the Western imperial powers, including Russia, and Japan, when they were weak. I think they expect that the territory Muraviev, Putiatin and Ignatiev acquired for Alexander II, Siberia’s Maritime Province, will fall into their lap by default. Even the Russian people out there think that this land will eventually go to China. Will there be war? If the Chinese are wise, there will not be. With the Russian population dying and China’s soaring toward 1.5 billion by 2025, demography is destiny. But Moscow is making a mistake by joining in a quasi-alliance with China against U.S. "hegemony." Unlike China, we Americans do not covet huge swatches of Russian land. The question Russia must face is how you hold on to a vast territory, full of the world’s most desirable resources, when the population is dying out. Q. You are one of the few voices in the American press who has spoken out against the sanctions on Iraq. It is known that Russia and Iraq are developing closer economic ties, and Russia would like to see these sanctions lifted. A war launched against Iraq would throw cold water on the recent improvement in relations between our two countries. Do you feel that the Bush Administration is willing to launch such a ground war? Or is it mainly the neo-cons and the Israeli Lobby pushing for such a war? A. Clearly, the neo-cons, our war hawks, are wild for war on Iraq. And our Israeli Lobby desperately wants to make Israel’s war America’s war, so the U.S. will fight Israel’s battles and smash Israel’s enemies. The Brits used to do that, quite successfully. But we must not let it happen. While America will stand by Israel’s right to exist in security, we must have a policy of our own, independent of Israel, as our interests are not identical, despite what the Lobby claims. This is a long-time problem for America that Washington, our first and greatest President, warned us against in his Farewell Address: Do not let "passionate attachments" to foreign countries divert you from your own country’s best interests. Will the President launch a Desert Storm II, a second invasion of Iraq? The final decision has probably not been made. My guess is that the final decision will be "No" -- unless Saddam does something rash or stupid. The President is aware that such a move would shatter his anti-terrorist coalition, alienate Russia and our NATO and Arab allies, and require hundreds of thousands of U.S. troops, because there is no "northern alliance" to do the fighting in Iraq, as there was in Afghanistan. I think a final decision on Iraq is further down the road. On Iraq, I oppose the sanctions because they seem to be killing the old, the women, and the children, without dethroning Saddam Hussein. Second, they are hurting us with Arab peoples, who wonder why we are so tough on Iraqis, but so tolerant of Israelis when they ignore UN resolutions. Saddam Hussein is a brutal dictator, but his armed forces were smashed in Desert Storm. He has no navy and no air force, none of his armor and artillery have been updated in ten years, and he knows if he uses a weapon of mass destruction on Americans, it will be the end for him. He and his generals have to understand this. Our entire nation would demand his total destruction. That would be insane for him. And I think he knows it. Even during Desert Storm he did not use chemical weapons. So, I agree with General Powell. Saddam is in a box. He is contained. There is no pressing need to invade and overthrow him, especially if it means a war that could cause the Middle East to explode. But if Saddam Hussein’s hand is found to have been in the September 11 massacres, he should probably get ready to meet his Maker. *COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] Want to be on our lists? Write at [EMAIL PROTECTED] for a menu of our lists! 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