Re: Close Elections and Causality

2000-11-13 Thread Sampo A Syreeni
On Sun, 12 Nov 2000, Kevin Elliott wrote: This is why people who don't know statistics should not be allowed to think... By no means is that number, by itself, of any significance whatsoever. How many got canceled last election- one number I heard said 14,000. If so then 19,000 is about what

Re: Close Elections and Causality

2000-11-13 Thread Ken Brown
Kevin Elliott wrote: At 12:38 + 11/10/00, Ken Brown wrote: But are there no rules in Florida allowing for a re-vote? If there really are 19,000 spoiled papers from once county, that sounds "massive" to me. It may not be fraud - the fools who designed the papers probably thought they

Re: Close Elections and Causality

2000-11-13 Thread Steve Schear
At 12:23 AM 11/13/00 -0500, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Steve Schear [EMAIL PROTECTED] #These spoiled ballots don't imply that the voters who #created them didn't ask for and receive new ballots. Those 30,000 (not 19,000) were from the ballot box, not replaced ballots from on-site. That's

Re: Close Elections and Causality

2000-11-12 Thread Kevin Elliott
At 12:38 + 11/10/00, Ken Brown wrote: But are there no rules in Florida allowing for a re-vote? If there really are 19,000 spoiled papers from once county, that sounds "massive" to me. It may not be fraud - the fools who designed the papers probably thought they were doing right - but it has

Re: Close Elections and Causality

2000-11-12 Thread George
Kevin Elliott [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: %This is why people who don't know statistics should not be allowed to %think... By no means is that number, by itself, of any significance %whatsoever. How many got canceled last election- one number I heard %said 14,000. If so then 19,000

Re: Close Elections and Causality

2000-11-12 Thread Steve Schear
At 02:41 PM 11/9/00 -0800, Bill Stewart wrote: At 09:02 AM 11/9/00 -0800, Tim May wrote: I agree that that's a strong point - if any of those 19000 voters was confused, the time for them to raise the issue was at the poll. If they _did_ ask "hey, this is confusing, how do I vote for Gore?" at the

Re: Close Elections and Causality

2000-11-12 Thread George
Steve Schear [EMAIL PROTECTED] #These spoiled ballots don't imply that the voters who #created them didn't ask for and receive new ballots. Those 30,000 (not 19,000) were from the ballot box, not replaced ballots from on-site. White Supremacist Tim "I'd like to see a race riot" May

Re: Close Elections and Causality

2000-11-10 Thread Ken Brown
Tim May wrote: * In a close, nearly-tied election, should a re-vote be allowed? * In a close sports game, should all potential "fork" decisions (referee calls) be reviewed and the game rolled-back...even hours later? Should critical plays be re-played the next day? * Did the woman who

Re: Close Elections and Causality

2000-11-10 Thread Sampo A Syreeni
On Thu, 9 Nov 2000, Tim May wrote: In close elections, as in close sports games, as in the golf example, there will be many events which are later claimed to be "hinge points," or forks. Which is pretty much caused by the count being seen as an advancing 'race' with a definite order. I've

Re: Close Elections and Causality

2000-11-10 Thread Tim May
At 3:17 PM +0200 11/10/00, Sampo A Syreeni wrote: On Thu, 9 Nov 2000, Tim May wrote: In close elections, as in close sports games, as in the golf example, there will be many events which are later claimed to be "hinge points," or forks. Which is pretty much caused by the count being seen as an

Re: Re: Close Elections and Causality

2000-11-10 Thread Bill Stewart
At 03:54 PM 11/9/00 -0600, Jim Choate wrote: On Thu, 9 Nov 2000, Tim May wrote: * In a close, nearly-tied election, should a re-vote be allowed? * In a close sports game, should all potential "fork" decisions (referee calls) be reviewed and the game rolled-back...even hours later?

Close Elections and Causality

2000-11-09 Thread Tim May
* In a close, nearly-tied election, should a re-vote be allowed? * In a close sports game, should all potential "fork" decisions (referee calls) be reviewed and the game rolled-back...even hours later? Should critical plays be re-played the next day? * Did the woman who voted at 9 a.m. but

RE: Close Elections and Causality

2000-11-09 Thread Ernest Hua
Title: RE: Close Elections and Causality Thanks Tim. (First, I genuinely appreciate the specificity. Now we can discuss just where we disagree.) Given your points, one would have to argue that the proper election would have to be extremely simultaneous (e.g. everyone votes within 1 hour

RE: Close Elections and Causality

2000-11-09 Thread Tim May
At 9:43 AM -0800 11/9/00, Ernest Hua wrote: Thanks Tim. (First, I genuinely appreciate the specificity. Now we can discuss just where we disagree.) Given your points, one would have to argue that the proper election would have to be extremely simultaneous (e.g. everyone votes within 1 hour or

Re: Close Elections and Causality

2000-11-09 Thread Bill Stewart
At 09:02 AM 11/9/00 -0800, Tim May wrote: [lots of good comments on causality] -- Someone will say that a highway being closed prevented them from getting to the polling place in time, and that there additional vote "would have made the difference." They want a re-vote. A few years ago,