Optimal Prediction

2002-03-26 Thread Juergen Schmidhuber
Many on this list have discussed the anthropic principle. It essentially says that the conditional probability of finding yourself in a universe compatible with your existence equals 1. But unfortunately the anthropic principle does not have any predictive power. It does NOT predict there won't

Re: Optimal Prediction

2002-03-26 Thread Bill Jefferys
At 2:25 PM +0100 3/26/02, Juergen Schmidhuber wrote: But unfortunately the anthropic principle does not have any predictive power. It does NOT predict there won't be any flying rabbits tomorrow. But Hoyle did use the AP to predict specific facts about nuclear energy levels, which were

Re: Optimal Prediction

2002-03-26 Thread H J Ruhl
At 3/26/02, you wrote: Normally we do not know the true conditional probability distribution p(next event | past). But assume we do know that p is in some set P of distributions. As I posted earlier my issue with this is how does one know p is in P unless one can compute p, i.e. check it?