Re: Moore's law for Everything

2023-04-29 Thread spudboy100 via Everything List 
Yes,John and a month ago, Kurzweil predicted the being of physical immortality 
via Drexler's medical nanobots. 2030.
QC must be the trigger because it's power can only enhance what is the mind. 
For me, whether conscious or not, I want the machinery to speed up scientific, 
technological, achievement by decades and centuries. Living like The Jetson's 
is the goal, with Rosy the Robot as optional. 
Neural chips from Musk? Buy me a 12 pack!


-Original Message-
From: John Clark 
To: spudboy...@aol.com
Cc: everything-list@googlegroups.com 
Sent: Sat, Apr 29, 2023 8:20 am
Subject: Re: Moore's law for Everything

On Fri, Apr 28, 2023 at 9:06 PM  wrote:


> What we seem to need is a Singularity where we get breakthroughs in materials 
> science, and medicine. I will guess that only when LMM's and other devices 
> merge with low-error, high capacity quantum computers is when this will 
> happen.

Practical Quantum Computers would just be icing on the cake. I now believe with 
98% certainty (by that I mean that if I was a betting man I would give 98% odds 
on it happening), that the Singularity will happen in less than 20 years with 
or without the help of Quantum Computers. And probably much less. And possibly 
much much less. I would not have had the courage to make that prediction one 
year ago, or even 4 months ago, but one hell of a lot has happened in the last 
few months.

Sam Altman said "The future can be almost unimaginably great" and I agree with 
him about that, in fact I'd change the "can be" to "will be'', but I'm not at 
all certain if it will be unimaginably good or unimaginably bad for the human 
race. The only thing I'm certain of is that we live in interesting times, if 
things beyond that could be predicted with certainty then it wouldn't be a 
Singularity.  
John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
wbs

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Re: Moore's law for Everything

2023-04-29 Thread John Clark 
On Fri, Apr 28, 2023 at 9:06 PM  wrote:

*> What we seem to need is a Singularity where we get breakthroughs in
> materials science, and medicine. I will guess that only when LMM's and
> other devices merge with low-error, high capacity quantum computers is when
> this will happen.*


Practical Quantum Computers would just be icing on the cake. I now believe
with 98% certainty (by that I mean that if I was a betting man I would give
98% odds on it happening), that the Singularity will happen in less than 20
years with or without the help of Quantum Computers. And probably much
less. And possibly much much less. I would not have had the courage to make
that prediction one year ago, or even 4 months ago, but one hell of a lot
has happened in the last few months.

Sam Altman said "*The future can be almost unimaginably great*" and I agree
with him about that, in fact I'd change the "can be" to "will be'', but I'm
not at all certain if it will be unimaginably good or unimaginably bad for
the human race. The only thing I'm certain of is that we live in
interesting times, if things beyond that could be predicted with certainty
then it wouldn't be a Singularity.

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

wbs

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Re: Moore's law for Everything

2023-04-28 Thread spudboy100 via Everything List 
What we seem to need is a Singularity where we get breakthroughs in materials 
science, and medicine. I will guess that only when LMM's and other devices 
merge with low-error, high capacity quantum computers is when this will happen. 
Yeah, I like quantum-woo!
Only then, will the thunderous roar of the mighty Bussard Ramjet cleave the 
night sky!
"woo-woo-woo-woo!


-Original Message-
From: John Clark 
To: 'Brent Meeker' via Everything List 
Sent: Thu, Apr 27, 2023 2:14 pm
Subject: Moore's law for Everything

Two years ago Sam Altman, the CEO of open AI which made GTP4, wrote an 
interesting article called Moore's law for Everything. Here is an excerpt:  "In 
the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents 
and give medical advice. In the next decade, they will do assembly-line work 
and maybe even become companions. And in the decades after that, they will do 
almost everything, including making new scientific discoveries that will expand 
our concept of “everything”.. And a recursive loop of innovation, as these 
smart machines themselves help us make smarter machines, will accelerate the 
revolution’s pace. The changes coming are unstoppable. If we embrace them and 
plan for them, we can use them to create a much fairer, happier, and more 
prosperous society.

The technological progress we make in the next 100 years will be far larger 
than all we’ve made since we first controlled fire and invented the wheel. We 
should therefore focus on taxing capital rather than labor, and we should use 
these taxes as an opportunity to directly distribute ownership and wealth to 
citizens. In other words, the best way to improve capitalism is to enable 
everyone to benefit from it directly as an equity owner. The future can be 
almost unimaginably great."
I agree with Mr. Altman that the changes will be huge and unstoppable, but I'm 
not as consistent as he is that they will all be for the benefit of human 
beings.  Moore's Law for EverythingJohn K Clark    See what's on my new list at 
 Extropolis
6tv-- 
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Moore's law for Everything

2023-04-27 Thread John Clark 
Two years ago Sam Altman, the CEO of open AI which made GTP4, wrote an
interesting article called Moore's law for Everything. Here is an excerpt:
*"In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal
documents and give medical advice. In the next decade, they will do
assembly-line work and maybe even become companions. And in the decades
after that, they will do almost everything, including making new scientific
discoveries that will expand our concept of “everything”.. And a recursive
loop of innovation, as these smart machines themselves help us make smarter
machines, will accelerate the revolution’s pace. The changes coming are
unstoppable. If we embrace them and plan for them, we can use them to
create a much fairer, happier, and more prosperous society.*

*The technological progress we make in the next 100 years will be far
larger than all we’ve made since we first controlled fire and invented the
wheel. We should therefore focus on taxing capital rather than labor, and
we should use these taxes as an opportunity to directly distribute
ownership and wealth to citizens. In other words, the best way to improve
capitalism is to enable everyone to benefit from it directly as an equity
owner. The future can be almost unimaginably great."*

I agree with Mr. Altman that the changes will be huge and unstoppable, but
I'm not as consistent as he is that they will all be for the benefit of
human beings.

Moore's Law for Everything <https://moores.samaltman.com/>

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis
<https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>

6tv

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