Re: [FRIAM] The Presidential Election

2012-11-05 Thread Roger Critchlow
A few more months fighting it out in the courts would be just peachy -- :-( -- give me an uncontested victory one way or the other. -- rec -- FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College

Re: [FRIAM] The Presidential Election

2012-11-05 Thread Steve Smith
Everything I know about Politics... I learned from XCDC erh... XKCD and the answer to life, the universe and everything is 43^H^H*42*! FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College

[FRIAM] Prediction Markets

2012-11-05 Thread Steve Smith
Doug - I'm going to be so glad when tomorrow is over. Either totally disgusted and glad, or just normal cynical disgusted and glad. But really glad. And me, I'm just getting wound up! Getting a little (morbidly?) fascinated by the prediction markets.

Re: [FRIAM] Prediction Markets

2012-11-05 Thread Douglas Roberts
Steve, this is a comprehensive resource. It is somewhat reassuring that the general shapes and inflection points of the curves roughly match the WTA market graph. And disappointing as well, in its predictions that very nearly exactly half of our fine fellow American citizens are apparently

Re: [FRIAM] Prediction Markets

2012-11-05 Thread Owen Densmore
On Mon, Nov 5, 2012 at 12:52 PM, Steve Smith sasm...@swcp.com wrote: I'm curious what this group thinks about these prediction markets? 1. Are they useful? They are based on the correctness of the 4 Wisdom of Crowds criteria. In this case not all are met.