Re: [FRIAM] What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?

2017-02-11 Thread Vladimyr Burachynsky
You guys are Nuts and have too much time, That includes me. Somehow you have managed to braid together lies, probability and fake news. Perhaps many humans feel good whenever they influence others. Weather ladies telling to be happy whenever it goes above 30c ( I hate heat) Poker players

Re: [FRIAM] What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?

2017-02-11 Thread Nick Thompson
Hi, Eric Your blog ends by saying that we predict probabilities, not events. It would seem a further de-mystification of the idea of probability to say that we predict relative frequencies of future events, not probabilities. I.e., a probability is just (≡) a prediction concerning an

Re: [FRIAM] What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?

2017-02-11 Thread Eric Charles
Ooooh, h, I know what I think: Verbal Behavior, the Weather Man, and the Fundamental Lie of Professional Poker --- Eric P. Charles, Ph.D. Supervisory Survey Statistician U.S. Marine Corps

[FRIAM] What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?

2017-02-11 Thread Nick Thompson
Dear all, We had an interesting conversation in the Friday meeting of the local congregation concerning the question, "What does it actually mean to say that there is a 50 percent chance of rain in Santa Fe tomorrow?" Exactly what operations would you have to go through to discover if that