missing link:
http://www.newscientist.com/opinion/opinterview.jsp?id=ns23195
Interesting piece about new Pres. of World Futures Study Federation.
Slaughter is not very optimistic; it is comforting to me that people with his
realism can be accepted and given leadership roles.
Steve
--
http://magma.ca/~gpco/
http://www.scientists4pr.org/
Anyone who believes exponential
a biological
solution is found. Most surprising was the importance the report
gives to the risk of psychological and social stress.
===
Steve Kurtz
--
http://magma.ca/~gpco/
http://www.scientists4pr.org/
Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever
Harry,
You're incorrect about the stock mkt having no affect on the economy. Now that
60% (fr. memory) of US families are in the mkt, the wealth affect (both
psychol. real) influences spending behaviour.
Also, there are cross holdings (not to the extent of Japan) in corporate
pension plans
This expands on comments about gov't having limited effect on money/economy.
Steve
excerpt:
One answer is that something has gone wrong with the
monetary transmission mechanism, the drive train that
normally links the Fed's actions with the real economy. And
one of the people
from www.aps.org free weekly What's New
Robert L. Park Friday, 14 Dec 01 Washington, DC
3. BIO-TERRORISM: LINKS TO THE HEAD OF A WHITE HOUSE COMMISSION?
Three New York Times writers, Judith Miller, Stephen Engelberg
and William Broad have turned out an incredibly timely piece of
Keith,
Why is it that every variable EXCEPT population is discussed as having causal
connections to systemic breakdowns? Hospitals, schools, bridges, roads,
water/sewer, flooding of paved land...
I'm not negating the mis-masnagement the borrowing from future in every
sense. Scale DOES matter,
Keith's answer posted as my query did. We seem to agree.
Steve
--
http://magma.ca/~gpco/
http://www.scientists4pr.org/
Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a
finite world is either a madman or an economist.—Kenneth Boulding
(from Nov 21; sorry if already referenced)
Picture of student the poster on the webpage
http://www.indyweek.com/durham/2001-11-21/triangles.html
The Poster Police
A Durham student activist gets a visit
from the Secret Service
B Y J O N
Hi Chris,
I'll bet you a good dinner that the Euro doesn't decline significantly (5%
max) against the US$, Br. Pound, or the Swiss Franc during the next year.
The charts tell me that it is likely to actually advance against the US$
Canadian$. I haven't studied the other relationships. I'm a
For those unaware, I was a professional trader( money mgr) of underlying
financial assets and derivatives for 25 yrs. A few years ago, I wrote a piece
on this topic which is still available on the web:
Misconceptions
About Currency Commodity Markets
A recent piece "Growth: Salvation,
Lines of credit being used, proprietor partnership loans, and
corporate bonds notes are a large debt component that I inadvertantly
omitted.
Steve
--
I have examined the report which Keith linked (pdf; 38 pgs) on Global
Forests. Keith's conclusion or interpretation that impelled this :
FutureWork readers might care to
be reassured that the situation is improving since then.
is not even a glass half full vs half empty difference of opinion.
The point is that a half millennium ago, it was possible to have a pretty
good working life with high wages, so why isn't it possible now?
So, there's my question for today.
Harry
Two factors immediately come to mind.
1. Mechanization (industrial revolution)
A current article describing the overcompetition for jobs in the world today.
Steve
===
FEATURE STORY | December 31, 2001
A New Giant Sucking Sound
by William Greider
he "giant sucking sound" Ross Perot used to talk about is back, only this
time it is not
Harry,
I had no trouble with the PDF weblink. It did take about 20 seconds to
load I'm on a high speed cable. So dial-up modem speed might be
causing the problem.
Steve
HP:
I couldn't get through to the PDF. Did you find it easy?
Arthur asks:
My father in law could supporta family of 2 kids and wife, afford a new
house and car---all at a middle class salary level. This in the 1950's.
Today, well you know. Two earners in the family and running faster and
faster to keep up.
So what happened in the last 40 to 50
Hi Lawry,
I too benefited from free markets, as I was a winning player in the
zero sum game of trading the derivative instruments which are are based
upon the shares, currencies, commodities, and interest rates of the
'system'. As I have reiterated many times, the system is far from
perfect.
B.McC:
This does not get to the root of the matter. The media
do not get into the game until the child has been infected
with the values of his or her social matrix of origin --
what I call: an ethnicity -- thru
*childrearing*, which the parents transmit to the
infant before the acquisition of
Brad,
I was using "teleology" in the grandest sense: a direction of reality, a
purpose or meaning of life other than our anthropogenic ascriptions. Is it
necessary to "find justification for our[-]selves" outside of the values
and meanings nurturenature (incl our creativity) produce? Is any
Just one sidenote which reinforces Brad's interpretation of nature us:
We are not outside of nature; we are a growing (too fast) part of it. It
is extremely likely that we will not be the last surving life form on
earth. It is also extremely likely that similiar (to us) life forms
exist
Note: I am NOT anti-immigrant or anti-immigration. In fact I am a recent immigrant to Canada. The reason I am posting this is to evidence the supply-demand claims re jobs wages that I have been making foraround 5 years on Futurework. Numbers matter in all living systems. The human economy IS
This is refreshing output for a subsidiary of NAFTA. It indicates, among many things,
that overshoot in human impact is occurring. It also suggests that technology isn't
sufficient as a fix. At least there is recognition that humanity has a problem.
Steve
Harry,
It seems to me that humans invest more import into what is unknowable -
the mystery - than into the mundane complex stuff about which we can
know a bit. Makes social contracts in a globalized world nearly
impossible to form and keep functional.
Steve
===
(addressing Keith
I don't believe that everyone at the IMF The World Bank conspire.
However, some cases being made ( past tense) make these institutions
look either highly incompetent or like they were following dictates from
a high level power elite (or both??). Here's a recent piece from a major
US
This is in honor of M.L.King, whose birthday is being celebrated today
in the US and perhaps other places. Note: since the time of his
statement human population has risen by more than 2 Billion, an increase
of 50% from the numbers King perceived as already constituting a plague.
Steve
My cafe time, too!
Bruce L:
Brad,
-Original Message-
Not being schooled in "Economics", I have
come to see "capitalism" as just one form
of human sociability:
That is 1 way to look at it. However, I don't choose to socialize that way
and those who do try to destroy those who
Gee, except for our friendly disagreement about pop-envir balance (scale
of humans on earth; 400% growth in 1 Century), I find I continue to agree
with Harry. Privelege of the landed aristocracy, importance by birth..has
had horrendous impacts on human well-being. But...continue dividing a
Interesting article. I've not studied this topic in any detail, but
in a complex system, it seems speculative - except for the obvious fact
that if no excess wealth then no saved wealth.
Steve
WEALTH SPAWNS CORRUPTION
Physicists are explaining how politics can create the super-rich.
Hi Ray,
The definitions of key terms are to blame. (my understanding) When the article
refer to "socialism", they are referring to the strong centrally mandated
type, not the small community Israeli Kibbutz. Cuba might be one country
that doesn't fit either definition, but they are short of
One day doesn't necessarily change a trend, but todays drop could be the
first step in the down leg Keith I suspect is coming.
By Denise Duclaux
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks sank in late afternoon trading on Tuesday as
investors, shell-shocked by the implosion of energy trader Enron Corp.
I'll really need to read the study as the article is unclear. One thingI
noticed iupon my third read is that the corruption mentioned in the beginning
refers to wealth condensing in the hands of ONE individual. At the end, he
says "a few lucky..."
So I'm confused a bit now.
REH:
I guess what
A recent Dawkins talk relevant to free will opportunities for humans to
intentionally craft their future. I personally think he is confused
philosophically, since this sounds a bit like disembodied brain/mind
escaping evolutionary constraints. However, freedom at least seems real;
and how
I agree with Keith, and so does this Harvard prof. My point about Dawkins was
specifically about his position concerning the human brain and a uniquely human
ability to 'transcend' evolution. Robert Ornstein coined the expression conscious
evolution, with regard to humans molding behavior
Since much of my career focused on relative valuations of currencies and
the 'odds' the derivatives market placed on changes to them (put call
option prices imply expected volatility), here's a brief comment on the
current state of affairs.
It is highly unlikely in my opinion that the major
This is not directly related to Futures topics, but I suggest that what we
read and hear today is not what is decided behind closed doors. The more
things change...
Steve
http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns1734
Plot
Ray,
You may think me a Johnny One-note, but the only innovative,
constructive idea I can see addressing the ills this list addresses
weekly is population shrinkage. Redistribution of money creates not one
iota of sustainable well-being; it would give an instantanious burst of
consumption,
I got this second hand. It is so clever and humorous, that I'm sharing
it. I've no knowledge about the source or org. other than what is
written below.
Steve
=
THIS HARDLY MATTERS--20.02.02.20.2002, somewhere
Friends,
Sunil
I neglected to mention 2 facts:
1. The US is the 3rd most populated country in the world.
2. The US has the fastest growing population of all developed countries.
(largely due to immigration the higher fertility of immigrants already
in the country compared to birthrates for women born in
Harry,
I could have edited the Google search to select the best corroborating links
for my point of view. I chose to be honest. You, on the other hand, select
one link to jump on, and have never proferred supporting evidence to counter
the facts and opinions of many thousands of senior
Ray,
Your statement concerns a traditional economic analysis of efficiency. (time/value,
convenience, relative $ costs, diversity of entertainment, existence of *some*
high quality schools...) Remember, I lived in Manhattan for 27 years, so I'm
not guessing here. The dependence on remote
Ray all,
Perhaps this is a clearer way of explaining the connections I've been
discussing. Scale, Ray, is the size of something or number of units of
things. I was trying to connect numbers of under/un-employed
distressed individuals, migration pressure, and the *doubling* of the
number of
There is a wealth of information available from IIASA on thei
nterconnections between population levels
socio/economics-ecology-health-future.
Steve
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/docs/pop-soc.html
Title: IIASA - Population and Society
This was in todays National Post. Sorry for the format.
Steve
February 25, 2002
Skilled immigrants overlooked in job market: study
'Racial discrimination more of an issue'
Eric Beauchesne
Southam News
OTTAWA - Racism and failure to recognize the education and skills of
recent immigrants
Maybe...
http://english.pravda.ru/main/2002/02/20/26534.html
(SK)
In short, my answer is no. ART isn't an object. It is anever-changing
flux of values, creative skills, andtaste.
All of life is theabove. Art's criteria in the West are no
more erratic orflexible than the West's Science. Do not for
get that Art is
supported in the
Ray,
You know that I value your knowledge and respect your opinion That
there are a bunch of 'experts' who agree with and inform your position
on ART doesn't change it from opinion to truth
After thinking a bit more about the discussion of professions, I
realized that there of course are
Great article, Ray. My only quibble is the certainty the author and
nearly all economists exhibit when predicting the US is home free from
the hi-tech bubble and Sept 11 2001. Every month since 9-11 a US
official has warned that we could be attacked any day by terrorists. It
wasn't 'if', it
Perhaps Keith means the decline (in importance) of large scale
commercial banks. (not Central or Nat'l Banks) This makes sense, as
mergers continue with continuing staff cuts electronics replacing
brick mortar. Brokers, banks insurance cos are (in US since laws
changed last decade I think)
According to The World Resources Institute's Guide to the Global
Environment (1997),
( http://www.wri.org/wri/wr-96-97/em_txt3.html )
If energy consumption were to remain constant at current levels, proved
reserves (7) would supply world petroleum needs for 40 years, natural
gas needs for 60
I didn't respond to Ray's piece some days ago in which as a minor point he
brushed aside my reporting of the overly optimistic World Resources Institute
estimate (1997) of 40 yrs till zero oil production. They assumed
"constant" demand. No think tanks, govts, or oil cos that I'm aware of expect
Reality seems to be kicking in. The need for more revenue payers (incl
social security) in future is bumping up against the social contract
costs of education, recreation, transport, etc. Local/state/national
disputes should increase with court cases likely in my opinion.
Steve
Ray,
Please explain who these people are. The ones with multiple young
children? If so, then yes, there is a double bind. It would appear to be
caused by too many people wanting to live in the same places, with those
already there wanting to limit growth. Do you see a solution which
doesn't
The 'Spirit in the Gene' is alive and well. :-)
We may be the most complex life form, but we are still mammals. There is
no ontological difference between our instincts and those of other species.
It is a matter of degree of brain nervous system development and complex
language ability which
The following summary, with observations, was prepared by David Sussman,
a member of the Board of New Hampshire Citizens for Sustainable Population.
http://www.go.to/nhsuspop
The Spirit in the Gene, Humanity's Proud Illusion and the Laws of
Nature. Reg Morrison (with forward by Lynn
If someone thinks they can better interpret/translate my ideas so that Ray
gets them, please email him offlist with a cc to me. I'll have a brief go
here, but I'm not confident we're on the same wave-length.
RH:
Could you give a little more explanation of"massive increases in the
use of
Does this 'truism' hold despite the continuing declines of topsoil,
aquifers, fisheries, etc, the tripling of every man/women since
Ghandi's times? Will it hold forever? Can one live on spirituality?
Faith is strange stuff.
The Earth provides enough
to satisfy every man's need,
but not
ow thenext hour on Ideas, a CBC radio program on Radio One. On the West Coast,we get it a 9pm but I don't know it's time slot anywhere else.There is some really original thinking in this book and Steve Kurtz hasquoted from it several times and I have read it as well and been veryimpressed.Th
Ray,
This was new to me, so I did a google search.
Main website
http://www.geo.uni-bayreuth.de/bodenkunde/terra_preta/
abstracts from conference:
http://www.geo.uni-bayreuth.de/bodenkunde/terra_preta/Agenda_
>From a quick look, there must be trees/bushes burnt to create the stuff.
Ray,
Re:
As long as there is a
lack of respectthe world will never get population under control
because there can be no dialogue. It would make more sense to start from
acceptance than from an obnoxious skepticism.
Nature will take care of overpopulation whether humans kill each other
Harry,
I'll not take your rotten bait. (it's been the same for years, hence too
mouldy to entertain)
I'll not bore the list with the more reams of scientific consensus re overpop.
(I've given dozens of links already. If anyone has questions, email me offlist.)I
DO defer to specialists just
Harry,
I'll not take your rotten bait. (it's been the same for years, hence too
mouldy to entertain)
I'll not bore the list with the more reams of scientific consensus re overpop.
(I've given dozens of links already. If anyone has questions, email me offlist.)I
DO defer to specialists just
human error
Steve
Bravo, Selma. Homogeneity of values and manageable scale (pop for those
in doubt) certainly seem likely abetters of this type of social arrangement.
Steve
--
http://magma.ca/~gpco/
http://www.scientists4pr.org/
Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a
finite world is
Harry,
Thanks for the considered analysis. As I just re-subbed to FW, I'll post
the original article and your reply in a separate post to that list.
I don't disagree with the general historical analysis you've given here (
in similar forms several times prior). As with many other life forms,
Hi Ray,
You surely know the stock replies to th probablistic scenarios:
1. there is no proof that the forecasts are correct
2. I'll be dead long before it happens - if it does.
It ain't a pretty picture, but we're self-destructing as a species.
Little if anything can be done about it in my
The immigration issue relates significantly to constraints and quality
of life which may be affected by the density of human populations,
scarcity of desired needed resources, and pollution (all kinds) of the
areas involved. Noise, traffic, unhealthy sanitation-air-water, as well
as food
Ray,
Our discussions/points of view are not mutually exclusive. I care not
about 'who' immigrants are; I care about 'how many' are jammed into
areas that can't sustain the current population in a healthy ( 7th
generational) way. Some societies in some areas react negatively to
immigrants for
For the record, I agree with Keith's analysis. One additional point
which I'm sure I've made in the past is that there has been little free
trade (without any subsidies, tax benefits...) since economies
developed beyond the barter stage.
Steve
--
http://magma.ca/~gpco/
Bruce hates national borders. Well, if 'your' tribe/society believes in subjugation
of women, female genital mutilation, infanticide, slavery in any form, virtually
unlimited rights to pollute, 12 children to be 'godly' (Mormons), or any
of countless cultural values that 'my' society/tribe
Bravo, Dennis. You are acknowledging both the subjectivity of values and
the physical constraints of the planetary habitat available for humans.
Should you ever get to Ottawa, please let us (Arthur, Ed W, Gail Stewart
me (maybe more?) know. The drinks are on me.
Steve
--
number: the 2 billion
Keynes proposed. And shame on those religions which overtly and covertly
engage in competitive flock enlargement.
Steve Kurtz
Ottawa
--
http://populationinstitute.ca
http://www.scientists4pr.org/
Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a
finite world
Hello Ray,
Your theory is just that - a theory. If the sum totals of (each) money and
goods and services and people on earth were static, perhaps there could be
a 'zero-sum-game' as you describe. However, that hasn't been the state of
reality since money was invented.
Second point: monies
that other countries are coming
to grips with the issue and are concluding that I might have been speaking
some sense.
Steve Kurtz
Forgive possible duplicates. emphasis mine. A very good piece of journalism.
Anthony Browne is environment editor of the Times
Hi Keith,
Your points are well taken. However, add in the alternative negative
feedbacks from higher/rising (versus declining) fertility for a true
comparison.
Since per capita grain production fish harvests have been declining
for over a decade, and fresh, clean water per capita is also
Hi Ray,
My answers:
1. What do you think about the value of the UN?Is it important?
Should the US withdraw into a stance advocated by the conservative areas of
the this country?
Although diminished in power, The UN (Annan has courage) has probably helped keep the US from wanton overt
Bravo, Keith!
One of the reasons I emmigrated from the US to Canada was to escape the
dumbed down, fundamentalist rise. Recall that both Gore W are
born-agains. Although I much prefer Gore's values on the environment, he
too believes in absolute values of right and wrong based on human
Ray,
Re:
(REH 2)
Interesting also. How much would you be willing to personally give up
on such
issues asinheritance
rights and taxes on the very rich nations to bring the poorer
nations up to parity?
I recall posting within the last year the reasons why distribution of the
The news item referred to was broadcast widely; here is a short comment by the head of The Audubon Society Pop. Program. An institution is apparently ignoring systemic problems within itself as well as within the biosphere. Perhaps the result will be perversely counterintuitive, as the flocks
Barry,
I agree that waste and the growth addiction are self-destructive disfunctional.
However, I doubt the 4 billion needy folks will mutate into voluntary simplicity
seekers just as I doubt the 2B 'haves' will discover sufficient long term
foresight to encourage a 7th generation mindset.
Ray,
I don't understand your statement about me or anyone concerned with a healthy
peaceful human future having it " both ways". As I see it, sickness and conflict
are to be expected at an increasing rate until a sustainable steady state
economy pop are achieved. And I'll bet on that! $1000
Ed all,
While the developed world benefited greatly during the 20th C from
Sci-tech in medicine, nutrition, sanitation, etc., there are billions
alive today who have been largely untouched by those developments.
Lomborg has been thoroughly countered. Best Summary link:
Frankly I'm angry with all institutionalized religions which hold that
their way is the best way. Monotheistic ones are the lead offenders,
since they hold a single pipeline to a skyhook with which they identify;
and of course they are the 'chosen' people.
Pantheistic or animistic religions
Ray,
There was a short letter in todays Ottawa Citizen which (rather
perversely) asked why the list of potential key terrorist targets in
Canada didn't include The National Archives. It is several hundred
meters from The Peace Tower and Parliament Buildings. The writer stated
(papaphrase):
Must say Bye bye (not to any ism) temporarily as am leaving soon for a
vacation family US Thanksgiving. Of course I'm thankful that I'm
living legally in Canada. Always fun to visit this fine group.
Steve
--
http://populationinstitute.ca
http://www.scientists4pr.org/
Anyone who believes
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