Minyak, tambang, emas, logam, batubara, dll barangkali emang tidak menarik bagi yg sudah tahu geologi .... Tapi bagi yg lain menarik utk dijadikan komoditi berita ... termasuk komoditi buat anak-anak di Bobo .... Emang sayang kalo bukan yg ahlinya berkomentar, atau nulis .... Lah yg udah jadi geologist coba-coba bikin tulisan soal gas di jawa timur (BP-lapindo) kmaren juga sempet kepleset je ....
Nah Mas Aji, yg dibawah ini aku pikir bagus --> http://www.spe.org/ Aku pilih yang worldwide opportunity/potential ... kan udah musti ancang-ancang go-global toh ... Jadi buat yg mahasiswa jangan hanya melongok potensial dalam negri doank, apalagi hanya sebatas Jakarta dan sekitarnya trutama jangan hanya seputaran jalan Sudirman-Kuningan .... Musti diperluas !!! jangan hanya minyak tapi juga energy ... jangan hanya energy tapi juga tambang ... jangan hanya tambang tapi juga lingkungan ... dan lingkungan termasuk adik kelas dan anak cucu ... jadi -->jangan lupa balik lagi ke Majalah Bobo ... :-) hef e nais dei rdp ==== JPT January 2003 World Energy Beyond 2050 Arlie M. Skov, SPE (Society of Petroleum Engineering) Today's total world energy demand is nearly 200 million B/D of oil equivalent, up five-fold from 1950--more than 80% supplied by fossil fuels, nearly 60% by oil and gas. Many forecast an imminent decline in oil and gas production, but population growth and economic development push demand upward. Dramatic changes must occur in energy supply and demand beyond 2050. Yet vast sources of energy exist. About 1.4 x 1019 BTU of solar radiation hits Earth daily, 13,000 times current total energy use. Another 5 to 8 x 1014 BTU, roughly equal to current use, flows to Earth's surface from its interior. From Einstein's equation, every pound of material equals nearly 4 x 1013 BTU, so each barrel of oil contains more than 2 billion times more energy than is available by combustion. Fully exploited as "atomic energy," 0.1 BOPD (about 4 gallons) could meet current total world energy demand. Major problems exist in effectively capturing, converting, storing, transporting, and utilizing these forms of energy while meeting society's diverse and changing economic, environmental, political, cultural, geographic, and aesthetic needs. Development of technology, though difficult, is necessary and almost certainly achievable. It is popular to forecast an imminent physical shortage of oil and gas, based usually on Hubbard's mathematical "curve fit" of history to predict production peak and subsequent decline. Bookout's 1985 prediction, Fig. 1, with one of the best track records (only 4% high in 2000) has peak world oil production in 2020. In the latest U.S. Dept. of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast, world oil and gas production increases monotonically through 2020. Fig. 1--World Energy Balance. Absent geopolitical or environmental constraints, estimates of early peaks in oil supply are likely as wrong as an 1875 Pennsylvania Geological Society warning. Nonetheless, an actual physical limit of oil and gas, and perhaps coal, will occur someday, and surely by 2050. Also, a growing concern about global warming, believed to be exacerbated by fossil fuel combustion, may limit its use. We must be concerned about how energy demand might be met in the second half of this century. Changes in Mankind's Activities and Energy Use The year 2050 is a 47-year leap into the future, so it is instructive to review past changes in technology and energy use. In 1850, wood supplied 70% of the world's "commercial" energy. Steam engine use, fired by coal and wood, grew with the industrial revolution. Locomotives and horses transported most bulk goods and people on land. Agriculture, and most local transportation, was all muscle powered. Wind was used almost exclusively at sea. Light came from open fires, candles, whale oil, and "city gas" in urban areas. The military moved troops, arms, and supplies by horse, rail, or foot on land, and by wind at sea. Today, nuclear energy provides 2,560 billion kilowatt hours per year, or 13 million B/D of oil equivalent--twice the total energy used in 1850. Aircraft carriers and submarines are nuclear powered. Oil fuels all forms of transportation and agriculture. Space is being explored, and rocket-launched orbiting satellites provide communications and navigation. Computers are ubiquitous in industry, education, commerce, military, and homes. Military forces possess intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and multiple thermonuclear warheads (MIRVs). This brief history illustrates the impact of technology on all aspects of human activity and the unpredictable directions and dimensions of both technology and human endeavors. Table 1 summarizes world population and energy use. Population grew from about 1 billion in 1850 to 6.1 billion today, while energy use grew from 6 to 190 million B/D of oil equivalent. Population grew at 0.9% per year in the first 50-year period and 1.6% in the last, but in the most recent 10-year period dropped to 1.0% and will likely decline further to 0.8% in the next half century (Table 2). Rate of energy use grew from 1.7% annually to 3.4% and then dropped to only 1.3%. The ratio of energy use to population growth remained almost constant, near 2:0 for 150 years, but is now 1.3. If this most recent decade is a reliable harbinger of the future, our energy "problem" may be neither real, nor serious. The Natural Sources of Energy Three primary sources of energy have enabled all life on Earth: solar, geothermal, and tidal. Solar radiation of 1.4 x 1019 BTU hits Earth's cross section daily. Another 5 to 8 x 1014 BTU geothermal energy flows to Earth's surface from its interior. Tidal energy is about 2.8 x 1014 BTU per day, or 50 million B/D of oil equivalent. Photoelectric cells convert solar energy directly to electricity. Solar energy also provides useful secondary energy sources: wind, ocean waves and currents, precipitation (for hydropower), and biomass via photosynthesis. Over geologic time, solar energy has provided fossil fuels from biomass through burial with heat, pressure, and time. This continues, but at such a slow rate compared to consumption, that fossil fuels are depleting. About half of incoming solar radiation is lost immediately through reflection and reradiation in the upper atmosphere. The amount reaching Earth averages 77 B/D of oil equivalent per acre (1367 watts/m2). Sunlight at a specific surface location occurs only during daylight hours. It is often obscured by clouds, fog, or dust; it varies in strength between summer and winter; and diminishes at higher latitudes. Geothermal energy is used commercially in limited quantities, mostly to generate electricity, and mostly near volcanic activity. Forecasting Future Energy Demand Forecasting energy needs 50 years into the future is inherently hazardous, but scenarios can be developed using trends in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, population growth, and reductions in energy intensity. >From 1980 to 1990, world GDP grew at 3.2% annually, but dropped to 2.5% annually from 1990 to 1999. These numbers are near decreases in energy intensity, suggesting energy use may not increase at all, or at worst, perhaps only by 1 or 2% per year. Assuming net energy growth rates of 0%, 1.0%, and 2.0% annually, energy consumption in 2050 would be 200, 330, and 545 million B/D of oil equivalent, up 0%, 65%, and 172% from today. Realistically, nothing in nature maintains exponential growth for 50 years, and these results yield a range so broad as to be of little practical guidance except to suggest uncertainty. The EIA projects world energy demand growth for the next 20 years of 2% annually for oil and 3% for gas. Both seem high compared to actual growth for the last decade (1% for oil and 2% for gas). Reliable estimates of population growth are also elusive. United Nations' (UN) forecasts have been revised downward in recent years; as fertility rates around the world are dropping, many nations are below the "replacement" rate of 2.1. The current UN "medium variant" projection of world population is 9.1 billion in 2050, suggesting an energy demand of 300 million B/D of oil equivalent, up 50%, assuming constant per capita energy consumption. Table 3 illustrates another aspect of energy use and national wealth. World Bank data classifies nations as low, medium, or high income. Only 15% of the world's population is in the high-income group, possessing 78% of the world's wealth and using 50% of its energy. The low-income group has 40% of the population, but only 3% of its wealth and consuming 13% of its energy. The high-income group consumes nearly 10 times as much energy per capita, but the low-income group consumes nearly nine times as much energy per unit of Gross National Product (GNP). By these two yardsticks, either group could rationally be accused of "wasting" energy. More to the point, if the entire world used as much energy per capita as the high-income group, world consumption would be more than three times as high, or about 680 million B/D of oil equivalent. If the world were all high-income and used energy as inefficiently as the low-income group, consumption would be 720 million B/D of oil equivalent, nearly four times higher. Conversely, if the entire world used only as much energy per capita as the low-income nations, total world demand would be only 63 million B/D of oil equivalent, one-third today's use, and if the entire world used energy as efficiently per dollar of GNP as the high- income nations, total world demand would be 51 million B/D of oil equivalent, about one-quarter of today's actual usage. Hence, uncertainty is an order of magnitude. Meeting Future Energy Needs Future energy needs must be met increasingly by nonfossil fuel. The identifiable options are nuclear power and renewables. But "wild cards," new technologies that are currently unproven, unanticipated, or unknown, are likely. Fossil Fuels: A "Depleting" Supply? Some believe an imminent shortage of oil, and efforts to alleviate it, might irreparably damage both the world's economic structure and its environment. But current oil and fossil fuel reserves and resources, their rates of use, and the ratio of reserves to current production rates (R/P or "years of life"), suggest otherwise. Table 4 presents the data (BP, IPCC, and Lomborg). Historically, estimates of both reserves and resources of oil and gas have proven to be too low. Most surprising are R/Ps shown in Table 5. They have increased for both oil and gas over the last 20 years, suggesting supply is infinite. For a "depleting" resource, this defies common sense, but dramatically demonstrates the inherent uncertainty in estimates. Future use of fossil fuels may be limited. Environmental concerns (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol); complex world geopolitical issues, magnified by local concerns that impair the production and consumption of fossil fuels; and fossil fuels may become priced out of contention by costs of emerging alternatives. Nuclear Power: Depleting or Infinite Resource? Electricity from nuclear power was first generated commercially in 1957 in the U.S. Today, it provides 20% of all U.S. electricity (79% of France's, 60% of Belgium's, and 34% of Japan's). In 2001, the U.S. generated 769 million megawatt hours, equivalent to 1.2 million B/D of oil equivalent. Construction delays, cost over-runs, and public concerns over safety converged to effectively end new plant construction in the U.S., but they continue to be built in Europe and Asia. Worldwide, 2,635 million megawatt hours of nuclear power was generated by more than 400 plants in 2001, equivalent to about 4.1 million B/D of oil equivalent. Most nuclear power today (85%) comes from light-water reactors with enriched U235. Sufficient uranium exists to last "only" 100 years at current production rates; hence, nuclear power is often regarded as a "depleting" resource. Available nuclear energy can be increased 100-fold by reprocessing "spent nuclear fuel" and adding plutonium (from reactors or dismantled warheads) to create mixed oxide fuels (MOX). Reprocessing ended in the U.S. in 1977 (because of nuclear proliferation concerns), but it continues in other countries (the U.K., France, and Russia), and MOX is now used in Japan. Even more energy is available with fast breeder reactors. It is more nearly correct to call nuclear power a "renewable" energy. The term "renewables" normally means solar, geothermal, and tidal energy, and derivatives of solar (wind, hydro, and biomass). Solar. Table 6 illustrates current use of solar energy (and its direct derivatives) and judgments (IPCC and Craig) prone to substantial error, as to the long-term technical potential. Biomass now provides about 18 million B/D of oil equivalent, or 9% of the world's energy, while hydropower contributes 4.6 million B/D of oil equivalent, or 2.3%. The use of wind and solar power is minimal, but long-term technical potential is believed high. Direct. Solar power has heated Earth for several billion years and is expected to do so for several billion more. It can create electrical energy directly, or be focused to provide concentrated heat for steam- driven generators. The total capacity of photoelectric cells installed through 2001 is about 1643 megawatts (396 megawatts in 2001 alone, up 38% from 2000)-- some 86% are single or polycrystalline silicon. Efficiencies have improved dramatically in the last 25 years (from a range of 6 to 8% in 1976 to 12 to 20% today), while prices have dropped. The trends suggest increasing future use. Photoelectric power suffers from intermittency, cost, and timing mismatch between peak capacity and demand. Storage in some form is usually needed to alleviate intermittency, increasing cost. Hydropower. Hydropower has been used for centuries, but now mostly for electrical generation. It is a clean source, and the lakes needed to provide hydraulic head and supply have beneficial uses for agriculture, recreation, and flood control. In 2000, an average of nearly 5 million B/D of oil equivalent was generated with a growth rate of about 2% per year. The long-term technical potential is believed to be 9 to 12 times current use, but increasingly, environmental concerns block new dams. Wind. Wind also has been used for centuries, mostly for marine transport. During the industrial revolution, wind power was largely displaced by fossil fuels. It has been rediscovered with significant technological advances (e.g., wind turbines). Its long-term technical potential is believed to be up to 1.4 times total current world energy use, 5,000 times greater than today's use. Intermittency, timing, and environmental concerns (e.g., bird kill and visual pollution) are still detriments to its broader use. Biomass. Photosynthesis turns sunlight into biomass at a very inefficient 1 or 2%. Photoelectric cells do much better and, as costs drop, the comparison will inevitably favor them over biomass. Wealthier nations have largely abandoned biomass except for special niches, such as ethanol as a gasoline additive and locally where wood waste or other biomass products are gathered for other reasons (e.g., pulp mills and municipal garbage). Low-energy density per ton and low density of tons per acre make costs prohibitive. Geothermal. Geothermal energy is used around the world (e.g., Italy, New Zealand, Iceland) mostly for electricity, but also space heat. In the U.S., it accounts for about 0.3 % of total energy use, and it has declined 20% from its peak in 1994. Prospects for extensive future use of geothermal are marginal for most of the world. Yet, heat flowing from Earth's interior is large; if people would live and work underground, huge savings would be possible both in wintertime heat and summertime cooling. Wild Cards History suggests that mankind's future activities and the energy that fuels them are largely unpredictable. But some forms of "unconventional" energy are already identifiable, or can reasonably be imagined or inferred. The significant temperature gradient between the sea surface and depth can generate electricity. Photoelectric cells can be placed in orbit with energy sent to Earth by microwave. All Earth could be interconnected with high-temperature superconductive transmission lines. And within the past few years, excitement over "cool fusion" was generated in Utah (deuterated metals) and at Oak Ridge (bubble collapse in acetone). We should never underestimate the innovative ability of the human mind. The Transportation Challenge Fueling transportation--automobiles, trucks, locomotives, aircraft, barges, and ships--is a significant future challenge. In the U.S., transportation accounted for 28% of all energy use and 70% of petroleum use in 2001; 97% of transportation fuel was petroleum. Replacing this portable, inexpensive, and safe fuel with high BTU content per unit weight and volume will be difficult. Possible scenarios include partial switches initially to hybrid vehicles (liquid fuels plus electric motors, batteries, and regenerative braking), followed by liquid fuels from gas-to-liquid technology, coal-to-liquid, and biomass-to-liquid (including ethanol and methanol). Later, switches to either pure electric and fuel cell power (using hydrocarbon or biomass liquids first, hydrogen later), and lastly perhaps pure hydrogen, for use in fuel cells and combustion in internal combustion (IC) engines. Conclusions A retrospective look at 150 years of human activities and technology and their combined impacts on types of energy and its use suggest that technology will have a significant and largely unpredictable impact on future energy needs and how they are met. World population is expected to grow by 50% over the next 50 years, implying a 50% increase in energy needs in 2050 if consumption per capita remains constant. Global economic development, considered a favorable objective, could add significantly to energy demand. Geopolitics, environmental issues, and economics will impact the future world supply and the cost of fossil fuels over the long-term more than physical shortages. Enormous supplies of renewable energy are available--solar, including wind and biomass, and geothermal--but their dilute and intermittent nature is constraining. Nuclear power, particularly reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel and fast breeder reactors, has the potential for meeting most future electrical and other energy needs. When cost-effective fusion reactors become available, nuclear power will be essentially infinite. Increasing efficiencies and the falling costs of photoelectric cells promise more use of direct solar power. In some areas, wind and hydropower are now cost competitive with new coal-fired electric generating plants. Transportation fuel can be provided by electrically converting natural gas, coal, or biomass to liquids for either IC engines or fuel cells, and for producing hydrogen for both. Strictly speaking there cannot be a "shortage of energy" in a free- world market. Price forces a balance between supply and demand. Higher prices, or the prospect thereof, also drive innovation and new technology, creating newer, cheaper, and better sources of energy and more efficient use of old ones. Arlie M. Skov was SPE President in 1991 and served two terms on the SPE Board. He is both an SPE Distinguished Member (1985), and Honorary Member (1998), and is currently the SPE Foundation's Treasurer. He is a former Manager, Production Planning, and Director of Production Technology for BP. He served on the National Petroleum Council from 1995 to 2001. He has a BS degree in petroleum engineering from the U. of Oklahoma. This article is a condensed version of SPE 77506, which was presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition held in San Antonio, Texas, 29 September-2 October 2002. --------------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Visit IAGI Website: http://iagi.or.id IAGI-net Archive 1: http://www.mail-archive.com/iagi-net%40iagi.or.id/ IAGI-net Archive 2: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/iagi Komisi Sedimentologi (FOSI) : F. 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