>From: "F J BERNAL" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >To: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >SIRIUS: The Strategic Issues Research Institute >Benjamin C. Works, Director >202 257-0157; www.siri-us.com; >E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >- --Speak the Truth and Shame the Devil-- > >STRATEGIC ISSUES TODAY > > >SIT-REP 9-7: Sept. 7, 2000 > >Iraq, Yugoslavia: Rumors of Wars > > >Sterling, Virginia -- No, SIRIUS has not curled up its toes. It has >re-deployed to the Washington, DC area ("the Emerald City of Oz") >where we can keep a close eye on developments across the board. > >I used to use an alternate motto for the institute: "Outside the >Beltway, but in the Loop." As of this weekend that will no longer be >true as SIRIUS will be locating itself in Arlington, Virginia --inside >the Beltway and just down the street from the Pentagon. Within >another week or so, SIRIUS should be up and running and back at >100%, >but may be off line for a few days as the local phone company is >recovering from a major strike, affecting the pace of new >installations. > >To the point(s). > >Clitnon's Legacy, Iraq & Yugoslavia --Rumors of War: > >Ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars; see that ye be not troubled; >for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet. St >Matthew 24: 6-7 > >Many have been rumoring about potential last minute warlike actions by >the Clinton Administration; maybe Yugoslavia, maybe Iraq; but I do not >have the feeling in my guts that Mr. Clinton wants an uncontrolled >bombing campaign at the last minute. On the other hand, Saddam Hussein >may be trying to strain the system in his own inconvenient way. > >Today, Mr. Clinton is trying to talk the Saudis into lowering oil >prices --it has crossed over $35 per barrel today (a barrel equals 42 >gallons or about 160 liters). Mr. Clinton's team has been trying to >lower oil prices since the Spring; instead prices continue to climb >and Mr. Clinton's present initiative is too late to drive prices down >before Winter. But since both George W. Bush and Dick Cheney have >experience in oil and oil-related industries, the high prices do not >advantage the Republican ticket, since Al Gore's campaign can >characterize the GOP's leaders as pawns for "big oil." > >The point is, if the US finds it has to bomb Iraq now, oil prices will >tend to rise further, something Mr. Clinton wants to avoid since it >might throw the stock market (back near its all-time highs) and the US >economy into a tailspin and possible recession. If any world leader is >prepared to discommode Mr. Clinton at the last minute, it is Saddam. >My advice, keep your gas tank filled. > >Mr. Clinton wants a high-profile peace deal for his legacy, but >Israeli-Palestinian peace seems out of reach. It appears that both >sides may be ready to wait for a new administration. > >Analysis: > >It is only about 60 days until the US election --and only about 17 >until the Yugoslavian Presidential Election-- and our Mr. Clinton, the >world's preeminent narcissist, is desperately seeking a big coup for >his "legacy" before he leaves office on Jan. 20th next year, about 134 >days from now. > >In the past few weeks and in more recent days, various correspondents, >other analysts and I have picked up many threads of the possible >"legacy" initiatives Mr. Clinton may attempt to complete in the waning >days of his leadership. War or peace? An "October surprise?" > >I think in terms of the rational objective vs. the political >subjective; of the relative power of perception over reality: Mr. >Clinton's demonstrated forte has been to muster perception to >overwhelm reality and now, Mr. Gore is offering more of the same >- --four years more, if he wins. > >Of course, "inductive reasoning" is the practice of fitting selected >facts to a theory that is born of personal prejudice. In its extreme >practice, inductive reasoning is the basis for demonization campaigns >and for conspiracy theory. Numbers can usually be found to demonstrate >a statistical correlation that is held up as proof; though >"correlation does not equal causation." The allure of inductive >reasoning is that "everything fits" and that it uses sophistry and >rhetorical techniques to seduce its audience into accepting its >proffered truths. It appeals to ignorance, egoism and emotion. > >Deductive reasoning --the "scientific method" is slower as it requires >that one gathers all the available facts and then test theories. It >demands that statistical support show that the numbers demonstrate >causation, not mere correlation (coincidence). Deductive reasoning is >good for policy but bad for politics as its slowness is not responsive >to the "news cycle." > >So what, you ask? These principles are important to keep in our minds >precisely because propaganda is based on inductive reasoning and >because we have seen it used repeatedly to justify interventions and >military assaults repeatedly in the last eight years. On the domestic >side, the same holds true; inductive reasoning is the basis for the >"divide and rule" politics of the majority of Democratic politicians, >the party's hard core. > >I have taken this opportunity to install a list of the "Fallacies in >Logic" at the website, in order that readers may download and peruse >the roster of tricks politicians and propagandists have used since the >time of Sophocles and Plato, to bamboozle the electorate, to divide >and rule. Please look in the "Archives" section for >"Fallacies_in_Logic.html." It is almost a complete guide and may get >future updates. > >As to Rumors of war: > >Here are the possibilities, all mentioned somewhere in the press, >being pursued at this writing: > >· Of course, there has been much speculation that the US and its >collaborating partners in NATO may launch another attack on >Yugoslavia, but that seems unlikely for reasons outlined further >below. · An air attack on Iraq, which has been played to CNN this >week. · The arrest of Bosnian Serb leader, Radovan Karadzic, an >indicted war crimes suspect · A peace deal between Israel and the >Palestinians --stalled out. · A peace deal between Turkey and Greece >over Cyprus --not very earth-shaking. > >As a bonus, Mr. Clinton has been building a resume for his daughter >Chelsea while pursuing the elusive prize for his legacy. The First >Daughter sat in on the Camp David negotiations and has traveled with >her father, dispensing the Pax Americana, and is presently conferring >her maidenly smile upon the gathering of world leaders at the annual >United Nations General Assembly love fest. > >After eight years of his encouraging civil wars in the Balkans, >Central Africa, East Timor and elsewhere, I find it the height of >temerity that Mr. Clinton now chooses to warn the UN meeting of the >forthcoming dangers of civil war, but that is the topic of his present >sermonizing. > >It appears though, that peacemakers are looking for a better >sponsorship and more time, rather than rushing through a hasty deal >only to satisfy Mr. Clinton's self-esteem needs. In Israel-Palestine, >they know what the benefits package contains and that the package will >still be there come January and a new administration. > >That said, in the last few days there have been more suggestions >leaking into the media about Iraq, than about another "splendid little >war" with Yugoslavia. Though Mme. Albright and her team expended much >effort in the last year at trying to arrange the secession of >Montenegro, that effort seems to be on hold. Though Britain's Tony >Blair supports the conspiracy, the rest of Europe appears to have >become more alarmed about the Albanian killers and drug dealers than >about the Serbs. > >There is also the prospect that Mr. Milosevic may actually lose his >bid to be directly elected as President of Yugoslavia on Sept. 24, and >a NATO-sparked crisis in front of that election makes insufficient >political sense. If he wins, the first step from the West will be >renew sanctions and to declare the election is rigged --probably true, >since he is running about 20 points behind his principal challenger, >Vojislav Kostunica. > >On the other hand, Mr. Kostunica may well win despite the fact that >the president of Montenegro Milo Djukanovic, opposition party leader >Vuk Draskovic, and Kosovo's UN viceroy Bernard Kouchner are all trying >to sabotage the race. Draskovic has put up his own candidate, >Djukanovic has called for a boycott and Kouchner, calling the election >"undemocratic," is not taking steps to make sure that a fair election >takes place among the hundred thousand or so non-Albanians left in >Kosovo. Further, he has ensured that any Albanian loyalists in Kosovo >will not be able to vote --maintaining the false impression that all >Albanians are secessionists. > >In fact, Mr. Milosevic's proposal to have a vote in Kosovo is more >democratic than Mr. Kouchner's UN sponsored elections, set for >October. That is because the UN has done nothing to register Serb, >Roma, Turk and Albanian refugees in Serbia or Montenegro. Mr. Kouchner >is deliberately depriving some 200,000 Kosovo citizens of their right >to vote, but since he represents the UN, his elections will be >"democratic." This is how the UN-sponsored New World Order is to >work. We have seen this trick pulled in Bosnia, too. > >At the same time, every bit of US and NATO interference in the >Yugoslav election process can be interpreted as an effort to sabotage >the chances of the opposition and to assure the election of Mr. >Milosevic. For instance, in August Mme. Albright's State Department >opened an office in Hungary to support opposition parties and the move >was so naked --in terms of interfering in a domestic election-- that >everybody got angry, including the politicians the US said it was >intending to support. No politician wanted to be viewed as a stooge >of the US or be seen as a traitor by the electorate. > >Frankly, it appears that much of Europe has stopped believing in the >American proposition that millennial progress can be made by carving >up Yugoslavia through encouraging inter-ethnic violence in the name of >"democracy" and "human rights." But their governments are also >complicit in the conspiracy. At the same time, Mr. Clinton has found >that Russia's President Putin is far less pliant than Mr. Yeltsin. >Russia and China may have quietly put a hold on further aggression >against Yugoslavia. > >Meanwhile, Global trade and investment is taking up increasing >attention --and concern. The European Union's members and other heads >of state have begun to absorb the power of America's "new" economic >juggernaut, fueled by its lead in "information technology," the >internet and the effects of computerization on worker productivity. >Political "Globalism" is fine to the anti-nationalists at the UN, but >a free-enterprise fueled global boom that cannot be ruled by politics >or taxed to benefit subsidized clients is not something that >politicians want. Our would-be masters are worried. > >As to grabbing Mr. Karadzic, I do not anticipate that. He has >prepared his "scorched earth" defense, one expects, and if major Serb >political figures go on trial, the Hague Court would also have to look >seriously at the executive behavior of the Croat and Muslim >leaderships as well. That would expose just how much covering up of >anti-Serb crimes has been going on these last 9 years. That would not >be convenient to a Clinton legacy. > >Iraq: > >At the same time, US and British military aircraft over the so-called >northern and southern "No Flight Zones," have been raining bombs down >on Iraq every few days since December 1998. This has become a >21-month-old forgotten little air war in which Mr. Clinton's >administration meant to establish its dominance, but instead, >demonstrated the relative impotence of unsupported air power to deter >or discipline a resolute opponent. The campaign has also seen the >"innovation" of bombs filled with concrete, instead of explosive, in >order to reduce the chance of innocents being killed --"collateral >damage." > >Last week the Germans swore they had determined that Saddam was >fiddling with missile building again and there was an announcement >that the US might send a Patriot missile battery to help protect >Israel from a surprise attack out of Iraq --meant to destabilize >peace talks. The story died out, as it just has no credibility. Then >yesterday (Sept. 6th) I caught a little story on CNN suggesting that >if Saddam lunged at his Kurdish population "protected" by the northern >no flight zone, the US and Britain would wage a 3-day punitive >campaign of concerted Tomahawk missile and aircraft strikes against >targets throughout Iraq. That story is of interest as the US would >have to send in the Tomahawks and oil prices would rise. It was a >similar campaign in December 1998 that initiated this long-running >farce. > >Saddam has refused to allow a new UN weapons inspection regime to pick >up where arms inspectors left off in November 1998. Now there are >rumors of his suffering from lymphatic cancer. Such rumors generally >spark some unrest in Iraq, which may be another part of the reason for >warning him against attacking the Kurds and threatening a new >punitive >bombing campaign. > > >© Copyright 2000 by Benjamin C. Works --SIRIUS www.SIRI- >US.com >Newsgroup members are entitled to e-mail or re-post this report, in >whole or in part, so long as this copyright notice is included. > >______________________________________________________________________ >To unsubscribe, write to [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >Start Your Own FREE Email List at http://www.listbot.com/links/joinlb _______________________________________________________ KOMINFORM P.O. Box 66 00841 Helsinki - Finland +358-40-7177941, fax +358-9-7591081 e-mail [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.kominf.pp.fi _______________________________________________________ Kominform list for general information. Subscribe/unsubscribe messages to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Anti-Imperialism list for anti-imperialist news. Subscribe/unsubscribe messages: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] _______________________________________________________