Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 153, Issue 3

Sanjeev Gupta wrote: > > I predict a scramble to SLS by the remaining Cloud Vendors when this > happens. Akamai, Amazon, Bloomberg, and Google have been smearing for years. I don't have a note for Apple or IBM or Oracle. Microsoft announced support for proper leap seconds in 2018, beautifully

Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 153, Issue 3

On 7/15/2020 10:42 AM, Demetrios Matsakis via LEAPSECS wrote: > There is a well-known decrease in the slow-down due to the global > warming since the ice ages.   Basically the ice caps melt, the oceans > rise, and the Earth gets rounder.   But the same people who do that > math say today’s

Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 153, Issue 3

On Thu, Jul 16, 2020 at 2:37 AM Ask Bjørn Hansen wrote: > Am I oversimplifying if I’m hoping that means we might not have any leap > seconds for ~18 years? > > If that’s the case — no leap seconds for two decades and then the first > one will be the kind we haven’t tried before? > So the next

Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 153, Issue 3

Ask Bjørn Hansen writes: > > But still eyeballing the LOD curve, I'd give it 50/50 before 2038. > > > Am I oversimplifying if I'm hoping that means we might not have > any leap seconds for ~18 years? > > If that's the case - no leap seconds for two decades and > then the first one will

Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 153, Issue 3

> On Jul 15, 2020, at 11:33 AM, Poul-Henning Kamp wrote: > > But still eyeballing the LOD curve, I'd give it 50/50 before 2038. Am I oversimplifying if I’m hoping that means we might not have any leap seconds for ~18 years? If that’s the case — no leap seconds for two decades and then the

Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 153, Issue 3

You have anticipated many of the things that go in to the models! They use their own language of course, like “glacial rebound”. > On Jul 15, 2020, at 2:33 PM, Poul-Henning Kamp wrote: > > > Demetrios Matsakis writes: > >> rise, and the Earth gets rounder. But the same people who

Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 153, Issue 3

Demetrios Matsakis writes: > rise, and the Earth gets rounder. But the same people who do that math > say today's warming, dramatic as it may be for our biosphere, is > too little for this particular effect. People have gotten that stuff > wrong since George Darwin, though. I

Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 153, Issue 3

Poul-Henning, you may well be right. There is a well-known decrease in the slow-down due to the global warming since the ice ages. Basically the ice caps melt, the oceans rise, and the Earth gets rounder. But the same people who do that math say today’s warming, dramatic as it may be for

Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 153, Issue 3

> I haven't re-run the statistics. I'd still bet that the > average LOD stays constant at its latest several-year average value for > the next ten years, meaning no negative leap second. But I'd > lower the ante :) If we keep leap-seconds, I would bet even dollars (ie: a 50/50

Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 153, Issue 3

Here is a prediction I made in 2014 as well: https://www.gps.gov/cgsic/meetings/2014/matsakis.pdf Slide 6 is an Allan-deviation analysis of UT1-UTC, and from that I concluded that on a decadal scale it looked like a random run. That means