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Subject: Comment to Louis on "The conspiracist left" To: Louis Proyect <l...@panix.com> https://louisproyect.org/2020/04/01/the-conspiracist-left-and-the-far-right-strange-bedfellows-on-covid-19/ Hi Louis: I have no disagreements with your views expressed here on the strange species of pro-Assadites like Piers Robinson, Tim Hayward’s pro-Assad Organisation for Propaganda Studies or Peter Hitchens. Nor even of David Katz (of whom I had never heard until his recent media splash). It is a potentially a 'small' point. However I think you are likely wrong about John Ioannidis when you say this: "Is it possible that Ioannidis reflects the corporate bias of Stanford’s board of trustees that is headed by a Walmart family scion and that is composed of financial industry CEO’s? Sorry, if that makes me sound like a vulgar Marxist but as Bob Fitch once put it, vulgar Marxism explains 90% of what goes on in the world.” Given how influential Ioannidis is, perhaps it is not that small a point. I would liken Ioannidis's approach here, to that of a total academic who is thrust into a heaving busy ICU, where she/he has to make a decision NOW. At the outset: I have *never* worked or published with Ioannidis - just to make it clear that I have no Conflict Of Interest (COI) - at least in my view. I have often cited him in my work - and in matters of evidence based assessment of therapies. For what it is worth, I think he is one of the 2 most important Evidence-based epidemiologists (mainly to do with trials or observational evidence of therapy) alive today. The best paediatrician to be able to assess evidence - that I ever worked with - was quite paralysed in the ICU. You see he was tunnel-sighted, by the view that goes: "Well there is no randomised controlled trial on this therapy... "; and the often unsaid implication was that "and so I do not know what is best in this particular situation - and no one else does.. so we can leave the situation as is". In the current situation, Ioannidis comes close to this semi-paralysis. He is calling for *data* - and he is quite right do ask for that. And he calls for 'no panic' - and he is right in that too. He sort of acknowledges his own peculiar situation as he - when pushed - at several points says he does not advocate coming out of isolation (for himself - amongst others). He must be aware that people on the front line in the way that Dr Drosten is - have called for exactly the same thing (more data) - *BUT while* making crucial policy decisions - balancing off the trade-offs quite well. A very informative and long interview with Drosten, which is quite accessible is available. (See in English: https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-03/christian-drosten-coronavirus-pandemic-germany-virologist-charite/seite-3 ) Actually *nothing* he says is all that startling - and he keeps pulling back to need for "more data". He is right - there does need to be more data. (But there needs to be something done till that mounts!) And that - allows him to bail out and refuse to critique Trump (48'12")... Again, he takes a 'purist' 'academic' position. I respect he does not want to be a politician... but... this degree of abstentionism? The varying estimates of mortality are something that everyone in the field has observed (even I made similar points in a response to Michael - at least that was one of my intents). He does make one point that is very true: Punt for the average figure. That is to say rather than the 95% CI extreme data, pick the average - as that is more likely to be true. His interpretations of Italian higher mortality - are also un-exceptionable. But - he did say that these mortality rates - and the "best" ones from the ship (named 'The Diamond Princess' was it not?) - need to be 'risk-adjusted'. That was also a point I tried perhaps badly, to make when discussing with Michael. Well - what happens when this risk-adjustment is done? I fear we are likely to see that 'quasi-experimental' data shortly: With a sick(er) in general population (e.g.s: USA - and India etc - add in some co-factors, shall we say smoking or obesity or malnutrition to start?); or: with differing, and in general worse hospital systems (egs. USA - and India). Basically, I suggest that his academic 'purism' here, has made Ioannidis vulnerable to being the fig-leaf for the conservatives. I think he himself might be squirming a little, as he watches a rising fatality. Although I do believe him when in the video, he says circa 56 mins: "I would not blame the WHO"; & "They had to do something"; & "it is not about who is right" etc... Anyway, enough. I think I have previously said my own small pieces on COVID-19 and the capitalist crisis enough ( 1: http://ml-today.com/2020/03/17/how-should-marxists-view-the-covid-19-pandemic-of-2019-2020/ 2: http://ml-today.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/aftermath-covid-19.pdf) At least until we actually see what is happening further. Canada is also being dealt a few blows right now. But, the BC folks got it right: Led by Public Health doc Dr Bonnie Henry, they locked down early and did a lot of testing: "Health officials say physical distancing restrictions in B.C. are successfully beginning to slow the rate of spread of new COVID-19 cases in the province, perhaps by as much as half. But despite the "glimmer of hope," provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry and other officials stressed that the province is not out of the woods and the health-care system still needs to be prepared for an inevitable surge in hospitalizations." (Physical distancing has halved rate of spread of COVID-19 in B.C., official modelling suggests'; Much 27, 2020 - CBC; at: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-bc-modelling-numbers-dr-bonnie-henry-1.5512269 ). Hari Kumar PS: Statement of C.O.I: Asthma (moderate;) & age (near ancient from the perspective of some students). _________________________________________________________ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: https://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
