| IN 1998, Thai meteorologist Dr Smith Dharmasaroja predicted a tsunami would hit Thailand in 2004. But his warning was ignored. Now a Vice-Minister in the Office of the Thai Prime Minister, Smith recently gave another dire warning a tsunami is likely to strike Malaysia and Singapore. He talks to SHERIDAN MAHAVERA about his
prediction. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Q: How did you arrive at your prediction that another tsunami could hit Malaysia and Singapore?
A: After studying the 200-year
tsunami record, I found that there have been 12 tsunamis.
The last big one before Dec 26 occurred in the Indian Ocean and it was a tsunami created by the explosion of the Krakatoa volcano 122 years ago. Sometimes the really big ones occur in 80 to 100 year cycles
Q: So, according to the cycle of occurrences you expect another quake?
A: Near the Nicobar islands there was an earthquake in 1941 that measured 8.7 on the Richter scale and in 1914 there was one that was 7.2.
Both of these had their epicentres north of the Dec 26 earthquake (east of Sumatra).
So according to these records, we are scheduled for another big earthquake in roughly the same area and it could send waves surging through the Straits of Malacca and smash into Malaysia and Singapore.
Q: Will the epicentre be in the Straits of Malacca?
A: The epicentre need not be in the straits. It could be
north of it and this is enough to send killer waves to both countries.
In fact, Ive made suggestions to the Indonesia Government that it should not allow any human habitation on the northern coast of Sumatra as these areas are prone to be hit.
The epicentre for the last one was off the western coast of Sumatra. Malaysia was only hit by a secondary wave that ricocheted off the big primary wave that struck Thailand.
If the epicentre moves north, then Malaysia will be hit by a primary wave.
Q: So we are overdue for another big one?
A: We are definitely overdue based on the 100-year cycle and because this one is also close to shore, it will cause a lot of damage.
We have to learn the characteristics of nature in order to live peacefully with it. That is why Thailand is trying to set up a warning system.
We have built 62 warning towers in all of the six provinces which were hard hit by last
years disaster and we will be deploying buoys and scanners in the Andaman Sea next year.
Q: How long do we have before a tsunami hits us again? Two, four, 10 years?
A: I cannot say. How close the prediction is correlates to the cycle.
Q: Recently, some people spread text messages in Malaysia stating that a tsunami would hit us on Dec 26 again this year or maybe next year.
A: I know about that and these are irresponsible people who are basing their assumptions on a recent interview I gave to a Singapore newspaper. Unfortunately, they read the article and gave their own interpretation.
But I never mentioned any specific date because that is impossible. If I could predict the date so accurately then I would be a millionaire (laughs).
Q: So what can we do, given the fact that we will be hit?
A: A good warning system can help.
A system that warns people at least one hour in advance is good because it gives you time to head to higher ground.
If you build strong enough structures, then maybe they can withstand the waves.
You also need to educate people on what to do. For instance, for fishermen and ship owners, when there is a warning they need to move their ships out to sea, not dock them.
This is because a tsunami gets bigger the closer it moves inland. You do not feel the tsunami when you are in deep water.
Governments should consider putting up buffer zones along the coastline such as by planting strong coconut trees, bamboo or mangroves..
Q: How can we protect buildings which lie along the coastlines?
A: You cannot care about property. It will be destroyed every time there is a tsunami.
Anything on the beach must be built on strong pillars and have no walls so that waves can pass through. The
lowest floor of the structure must also be higher than the height of the last recorded tsunami.
Q: How do you predict earthquakes and tsunamis?
A: I have been studying earthquakes for 25 years and have gathered information and historical records from the United States and Japan. There is no technology to predict earthquakes but you can forecast by looking at historical records.
Q: These quakes result from the movement of the tectonic plates?
A: In geology you can see the movement of plates that make up the earths crust. In our region of the Indian Ocean there is the Eurasian plate, and the Indian plate beneath it.
In the Dec 26 tsunami, the Indian plate was raised by about 40 metres and that created the tsunami.
Such large vertical movements of the plates are caused by accumulated energy that emanates from the earths mantle, below the crust.
When that
energy is released it creates a big movement of the plates. That energy is accumulated over time and released every 40 to 50 years or so.
Q: Only earthquakes which involve vertical movements in the earths plates will cause a tsunami?
A: Correct. In March this year, there was another large quake whose epicentre was south of the Dec 26 tremor. But this one did not cause a tsunami because the plates moved parallel to each other, there was no vertical movement.
But there is something else that might cause another tsunami in our neighbourhood.
Recently, British and Russian scientists have discovered an underwater mountain range measuring about two kilometres in height in the Andaman stretching from Rangoon, in Myanmar, to the Nicobar Islands.
It was created by the accumulation of sediment from rivers in Myanmar and Bangladesh.
As it lies on the faultline, any moderate earthquake measuring 5 on the
Richter scale or more can cause the mountains to topple and this can cause a tsunami.
So you see, we dont have to wait for a major earthquake to see another tsunami.
Q: Did your government and people think you were crazy when you predicted the Dec 26 tsunami in 1998?
A: They criticised me heavily. They said I was going to destroy Phukets tourism industry.
But I was the director-general of the Meteorology Department at the time and it was my duty to warn people about these things. (laughs)
Q: How did you feel when you were proven right?
A: (laughs) I had to come back to work for the Government after retiring 11 years ago. Im now in charge of building the warning system. But I wish I was wrong (about the prediction).
When I first went public with the prediction, I had written a warning letter and sent out copies to the Prime Ministers
office, the ministry I was under and the authorities in six provinces.
Now, relatives of those who died in the disaster want me to give them the original copy so that they can sue the Thai Government for negligence. |
