Re: [nfc-l] Big NF tonight in Mid-Atlantic (US)?

2010-03-18 Thread Andrew Farnsworth
Hi all, Just a few comments to catch up on all of these threads. And a big welcome back to all of those checking this list regularly! On Wed, Mar 17, 2010 at 7:57 PM, Andrew Albright wrote: > Is this too early for a big NF in the mid-atlantic region? Broadly, no, I don't think so - this week

Re: [nfc-l] Big NF tonight in Mid-Atlantic (US)?

2010-03-17 Thread Andrew Farnsworth
Hi all, Good discussion. I'll chime in further later on about the winds and migration - much to say about that. . .but on a more proximal note, an interesting assortment of calls from vocal migrants moving tonight in NYC including Hermit Thrush (4), Brown Creeper (2), Red-breasted Nuthatch (2),

Re: [nfc-l] Big NF tonight in Mid-Atlantic (US)?

2010-03-17 Thread David La Puma
Winds are indeed interesting. Several questions arise: Do birds use surface winds to "decide" whether to go or not, or do they use a combination of surface variables such as barometric pressure, rH, etc., and/or how much do they "test the atmosphere" (we do know that this occurs, where birds will

Re: [nfc-l] Big NF tonight in Mid-Atlantic (US)?

2010-03-17 Thread Bryan Guarente
The question that I like to ask of all this is which level of winds matters the most when talking about migration? I am seeing that others are taking into account the surface wind direction (NWS observations and forecasts), but what about above that? The winds change direction dramatically

Re: [nfc-l] Big NF tonight in Mid-Atlantic (US)?

2010-03-17 Thread David La Puma
Andrew- I'm running a multiple regression right now on weather data related to migration intensity and several of the variables you mentioned are included. Something I'm meaning to do is to include time-since-last migration event but have yet to create the variable. I'll let the list know when

Re: [nfc-l] Big NF tonight in Mid-Atlantic (US)?

2010-03-17 Thread David La Puma
...I really have to retrain myself to check this list now that migration is back in action! Yeah, birds are moving over the mid-Atlantic tonight. There appears to be a nice flight over the Delmarva Peninsula and into New Jersey, with less movement over coastal NC and heavy movement out of

Re: [nfc-l] Big NF tonight in Mid-Atlantic (US)?

2010-03-17 Thread Andy Martin
Andrew, I think certain early migrating species might take advantage of tonight's weather conditions. There has not been a night like this around my house in many weeks. Although NWS here in Washington DC region only has wind out of a southerly component for 3 hrs before switching back to

[nfc-l] Big NF tonight in Mid-Atlantic (US)?

2010-03-17 Thread Andrew Albright
Is this too early for a big NF in the mid-atlantic region? Are these the main factors? 1) Date during migration season (higher numbers during peak) 2) What has happened during previous nights - i.e. if the wind was blowing strongly in the wrong direction or 3) Wind speed and direction It should