http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/06/international/middleeast/06IRAQ.html?ex=10 42860723&ei=1&en=7fe6672e690baa88
U.S. Is Completing Plan to Promote a Democratic Iraq continued... The Oil Protecting It For the Iraqis There is no more delicate question for the administration than how to deal with Iraq's oil reserves - the world's second largest, behind Saudi Arabia's - and how to raise money from oil sales for rebuilding without prompting charges that control of oil, not disarming Iraq, is Mr. Bush's true aim. Administration officials have been careful always to talk about Iraqi oil as the property of the Iraqi people. But in the White House, the major concern is that Mr. Hussein may plan to destroy the oil infrastructure in the first days of any war, while trying to make it appear as if the destruction was the work of American forces. "What happens if he started systematically destroying the fields?" a senior official said. "It's a big source of concern, and we are trying to take account of it as we plan how to use our military forces." Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, speaking on Dec. 29, hinted at such a military plan when he said, "If coalition forces go into those oil fields, we would want to protect those fields and make sure that they are used to benefit the people of Iraq, and are not destroyed or damaged by a failing regime on the way out the door." The White House has already concluded that the United Nations' oil-for-food program, under which Iraq is permitted to sell a limited amount of oil to buy civilian goods, will have to be amended quickly so oil revenues can be used more broadly in the country. But it is unclear how the administration plans to finesse the question of Iraq's role in OPEC and who would represent occupied Iraq at the organization's meetings. The administration is already anticipating that neighboring Arab nations may accuse occupied Iraq of pumping oil beyond OPEC quotas. One official said Washington "fully expects" that the United States will be suspected of undermining the oil organization, and it is working on strategies, which he would not describe, to allay those fears. The Leadership Planning Both Trials And Incentives Mr. Bush has been warning since October that Iraqi generals who obeyed any orders to use chemical or biological weapons against American troops would be punished, perhaps as war criminals. Now, as part of the effort to undermine Mr. Hussein's government and get evidence that has so far eluded United Nations inspectors, the White House is putting a slightly different spin on that kind of talk. Those who have helped build Mr. Hussein's weapons stockpile, officials say, may win some redemption by helping inspectors - and American forces. That approach appears to be part of a strategy to encourage a coup and persuade military leaders and scientists to give up the country's chemical and biological stockpiles and its nuclear research efforts. "The politics of Iraq are so opaque that it's just hard to know what is or isn't rumbling under the surface," one of Mr. Bush's most senior advisers said. As a result, the president is looking to create "maximum pressure" on the top leadership. Already the C.I.A. and others have drawn up lists of Mr. Hussein's top command and the heads of his security forces who would probably be put on trial. One State Department working group is studying a kind of "truth and reconciliation" process, modeled after the one in South Africa, which could publicly shame, but not necessarily punish, human rights violators. The Transition No to Installing Provisional Rulers Few issues have divided the administration more bitterly than how to create a transitional Iraqi government that could serve as a bridge between the American military occupation and a permanent, democratic government. The issue reflects the administration's ideological fault lines, and in recent months Mr. Bush's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, has stepped in, as one senior aide said, "to make sure there was not a public food fight on this one." White House officials say that those divisions have now been resolved, and that while planning is going forward, the United States will not overtly install a provisional government or designate its leaders. The division was a familiar one. Senior civilian officials in the Pentagon and some advisers to Vice President Dick Cheney argued for the creation of a provisional government even before Baghdad falls. It would be led, at least initially, by Iraqi exiles. The proponents argue that such a government in exile would speed creation of a permanent government if Mr. Hussein is removed, allowing United States forces to withdraw sooner. Among the reported advocates were Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld, who wants the military's role to be brief. "The quicker you get a transition from military victory to transitional government, the better," a senior Pentagon official said. "We want to be there as long as necessary, but as short as possible." On the other side of the debate are advocates of giving more power to Iraqis now living in Iraq. These advocates, mainly in the State Department and C.I.A., say the Iraqi exiles have no legitimacy among the Iraqi people. One proposal favored by State Department officials calls for having an international civilian agency, advised by Iraqis and protected by allied peacekeeping forces, run the nation while Iraqis elect local governments, create a new constitution and eventually select a national legislature, somewhat along the postwar model of Afghanistan. The White House has tried to finesse those differences by saying it favors a government formed by "free Iraqis" both inside and outside Iraq. But inside the Pentagon there are doubts. "The argument that you have to leave seats at the table for people inside Iraq has one problem: there is no one inside," said a senior official who supports the Iraqi National Congress. An official close to Mr. Bush acknowledged that "there are not a lot of free Iraqis inside Iraq." Pausing, he added, "But there will be."
