The last item (on NAM) states that if the overestimation of the CPI is taken into account, real wages are up since the 70's. Although I don't usually tell publicize this, it is correct, and word seems to be getting out. Nonetheless, assuming that they are right and that there has been a 15% increase since 1979, this is fairly poor in a country that had been expecting a doubling of real wages every generation or so. It is just that this isn't as easy a rhetorical point to make, especially in the U.S. sound bite political style. Dave Richardson ---------- BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, APRIL l9, l996: A survey released by the Conference Board indicates that corporate hiring plans are moderating from last year's levels, with fewer than l0 percent expecting an increase in payrolls in the next few months (Daily Labor Report, page A-l4). The l0 percent of firms planning to expand employment is down from more than l8 percent a year ago. The survey of chief executive officers also showed that 45 percent expect a decline in jobs, up from less than 33 percent a year ago.__USA Today (page B1) says that the Conference Board's quarterly survey of executives says that business confidence in the economy is dropping slightly, The number of new claims for unemployment insurance benefits filed with state agencies rose by l0,000 to a seasonally adjusted 360,000 for the week ended April l3 (Daily Labor Report, page D-l).__The New York Times (page D2) carries an Associated Press article that gives the unemploynment insurance benefit figures, The Times indicates that after the GM strike, claims dropped by 27,000 during rhe week ended March 30 to 406,000, and by 36,000 the following week. Many analysts contend that a level above 350,000 reflects sluggish job growth. __The Wall Street Journal (page A2) says claims had dropped significantly 2 weeks ago because state employment offices were closed on Good Friday. Analysts had expected a big bounce back last week, but it didn't happen, prompting some to say the labor market looks fairly healthy and certainly better than it was in March. __USA Today (page Bl) agrees that economists say despite the slight increase, the level of claims indicates a healthy labor market. For the third consecutive year, the average salary of full-time college and university professors in the country rose more rapidly than the rate of inflation, as the average salary rose 2.9 percent while the CPI for the period rose 2.5 percent, according to the American Association of University Professors (Daily Labor Report, page A-5). This is the first 30 year perod of real increases since l987-90, according to the AAUP annual report on the economic status of the profession. The National Association of Manufacturers says that there are valid reasons why workers might feel uneasy about the future, reciting what has now become a familiar list to employees of almost any company: global competition, the fast pace of technological change, the demands on the labor force to continually upgrade its skills and the bigger bite taken out of paychecks by taxes (New York Times, page Dl). But the organization said problems with measurements of inflation had caused government statistics to report that average wages had stagnated when they had actually improved somewhat. Once distortions created by overestimating inflation are taken into account, the group argued, wages have risen by l5 percent since l979. And the Times said the report said that the economy was creating jobs far faster than corporate downsizing was wiping them out. Unemployment has stayed under 6 percent for more than a year and a half. "There is one overriding, fundamental truth about the U.S. economy," the NAM study says. "It has created millions of new jobs over the last 25 years -- 8.4 million since l992 -- and at the same time it has raised average compensation for rapidly growing work force. Other industrialized countries in recent decades have done one or the other; none, aside from the U.S.,, can claim to have done both."
