The Hindu Thursday, Aug 01, 2002
Iran may find it hard to spurn Russian offer By Atul Aneja MANAMA (BAHRAIN) JULY 31. Though Iran has got a commitment from Russia on the supply of civilian nuclear reactors, in return it may have to go along with Moscow's controversial plans to share the Caspian Sea oil and gas resources. Russia last week announced that it was considering supplying more nuclear power reactors to Iran at its facility in Bushehr. The U.S. is opposed to the supply of the reactors as it fears Iran may use them to develop nuclear weapons. Russia and Iran differ on the formulation that will define the sharing of the Caspian seabed resources. Iran believes that the five countries — Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan — that straddle the Caspian Sea should share these resources equally. The Caspian Sea deposits, when combined with the estimated mainland reserves in the countries that surround it, are huge and could be nearly one-third the size of the Persian Gulf reserves. Other states, especially Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and chiefly Russia, disagree with Iran, pointing to the variations in the length of their coastlines as the basis for an alternative arrangement. Impatient with the delay in arriving at a consensus, Russia has worked out reserve-sharing bilateral agreements with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Under this arrangement, the seabed, with crucial modifications, is carved along a median line drawn between the countries that face each other. Iran feels that it will lose out greatly in case this arrangement is applied. From the 20 per cent that it claims, its share would drop to 12 to 13 per cent of the seabed. Encouraged by Russia which has already worked out a deal with Kazakhstan for a stake in developing its off-shore Kurmangazy field, Astana, on its part, is working out a sea bed sharing arrangement with Azerbaijan. Incidentally, India is also getting embroiled in Caspian Sea politics for the Kazakhs during the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee's June visit to Almaty, offered New Delhi participation in developing the Kurmangazy field. Russia, which is already present in Kurmangazy, and India have already worked together in developing the Sakhalin area along with Exxon Corporation of the United States. Iran, in the light of the joint progress made by Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, is feeling left out. Last year, Iran expressed its resentment by sending its gunboats after an Azerbaijani survey ship which was allegedly in its territorial waters. The near clash between Azerbaijan and Iran, was a wake up call, especially for Russia that is looking for stability in the Caspian. Significantly, in what appeared to be an ultimatum to Iran to make up its mind, the Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Ivanov, has announced that Russia, along with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, will be shortly undertaking military exercises in the Caspian. But keen to avoid a confrontation with Iran, provided its strategic interests in the Caspian are not undermined, Russia has subsequently invited Iran to participate in these manoeuvres. By going ahead with flexing its muscles, Russia, according to analysts, has signalled to the Iranians that it will protect its core interests in the Caspian, even if it has to pay a high cost. But, on the other hand, if the Iranians respect Russian stakes in this zone, Moscow is ready to promote Iranian interests in other fields, even if this meant confronting Washington. Not surprisingly, Russia has dangled the carrot of supplying more nuclear power reactors to Iran, soon after the U.S. Senate introduced a resolution that advocated that Washington should give up on the Iranian leaders, including the moderate President, Mohammad Khatami. With Iran facing pressure from all-around, it might find it difficult to spurn Moscow's comforting hand. Copyright © 2002, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu
