19, 2002 11:51 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L:33256] Re: Re: Re: RE: Re: How Much Housing Credit Is
Too Much?
The WSJ has been having pieces about the incentives sellers of high end
houses are having to give. One of the best indicators of an impending
bubble burst would be the length
Title: RE: [PEN-L:33262] RE: Re: Re: Re: RE: Re: How Much Housing Credit Is Too Much?
Martin writes:
On a another topic, Jim Devine turned out to be wrong about Doonesbury
on Iraq. If you followed the episodes for a few more days it turns out
that the Iraqi plant manager is telling the truth
Devine, James wrote:
but how much have mortgage payments risen as a percentage of
personal disposable income? after all, interest rates have fallen
and refinancing is the big trend these days.
The decline in the interest burden from refinanced mortgages is a
surprisingly small number. Most
Michael Perelman wrote:
We should ask Doug H., who is now on the radio.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/default.htm
Debt service % of DPI
total consumer mortgage
01q1 14.05 7.91 6.14
01q2 14.16 7.96 6.20
01q3 13.94 7.79 6.16
01q4
Very soothing. AG's 12/19 speech actually contains several rounds of
Greenspan-D'Arista Smackdown, including his response to the idea of using
regulatory tools to slow the credit expansions that breed bubbles. I can't
remember any time in recent years when Father Greenspan has been quite so
We should ask Doug H., who is now on the radio. Even that number is
cloudy since people refinance their houses to borrow for other purposes.
So, it is difficult to get a fix on mortgage debt as a separate category,
except in the sense that you mentioned -- if prices fall and people walk
away from
H'hold Mortgage Debt as Pct. of Disposable Personal Income:
Q3 2002: 74.2%
2001: 72.8%
2000: 68.8%
1999: 68.4%
1998: 65.4%
1997: 64.0%
SOURCE: Flow of Funds Q3 2002
Mortgage debt-service burden for Q4 2001-Q3 2002 ties the burden recorded in
Q4 1990-Q3 1991 as the highest ever for four
The WSJ has been having pieces about the incentives sellers of high end
houses are having to give. One of the best indicators of an impending
bubble burst would be the length of time required for sell a house.
During the high bubble in San Francsico, houses would sell at a premium as
soon as they
