Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-25 Thread MScoleman
I have printed my initial statement and Tom Kruse's response below. Tom, I don't disagree with you at all, but my statement was meant to be a sarcastic commentary on military involvement IN the drug trade, not a comment on the generosity of the drug fighting budget. [basically, this is a great

Re: proposed leading indicator

1998-03-24 Thread Doug Henwood
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: What is not clear to me in this thread is are we looking for a 'leading indicator' of cyclical fluctuations or of 'standard of living'. If it is the former, then it seems to me unlikely that the kind of social indicators (drug use, incarceration rates, crime, child

Re: a proposed leading indicator II

1998-03-24 Thread valis
Tom Kruse did some inspired digging to answer Maggie's question on drugs and the military, however, the first thing I thought of was all those customs-jumping ships and planes of the armed forces as they arrive home from the 100-plus countries where they currently are based, thanks to

Re: proposed leading indicator

1998-03-24 Thread Doug Henwood
Thomas Kruse wrote: Agreed, totally, except insofar as they're a window on a very perverted cultural context and political process. For exmple, an interesting Harper Index kinda stat might be "number of times drug wars declared since the Harrison Act of 1914" It's all one drug war, it just

Re: a proposed leading indicator III

1998-03-24 Thread valis
Tom Kruse offers: Tom is vulnerable for what he discloses and where he is; we should be ready to launch a major networking campaign if he were to suddenly drop off the scope. That's thoughtful, but fortunately unnecessary. What I report all came from public internet space and one kind

Re: proposed leading indicator

1998-03-24 Thread boddhisatva
C. Kruse, What the heck is chicha? peace

Re: a proposed leading indicator II

1998-03-24 Thread Thomas Kruse
Tom is vulnerable for what he discloses and where he is; we should be ready to launch a major networking campaign if he were to suddenly drop off the scope. valis That's thoughtful, but unfortunately unecessary. What I report

Re: proposed leading indicator

1998-03-24 Thread Thomas Kruse
Doug: I doubt I'll ever include anything on drug use, since that's a very ambiguous indicator, and the stats are probably worthless; Agreed, totally, except insofar as they're a window on a very perverted cultural context and political process. For exmple, an interesting Harper Index kinda stat

Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-24 Thread Thomas Kruse
Regarding: i think including illicit drugs is a good idea, but as an indicator of how much cash the american military complex has added to its supply. maggie coleman [EMAIL PROTECTED] According to the official data, it's not all that impressive -- just around a billion or so, that is, just

Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-24 Thread MScoleman
In a message dated 98-03-23 14:08:33 EST, bhottivista writes: I occurs to me that illicit drugs should be considered as well. If one could control for "supply shocks" like changing governments, transient eradication efforts, etc. It would seem that something like planted domestic acreage

Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-22 Thread boddhisatva
C. Henwood, Someone told me that the price of zinc had an interesting relationship with inflation. I would also be curious if there is a way to measure loan-swaps volume, price and direction. peace

Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-22 Thread boddhisatva
Doug, I occurs to me that illicit drugs should be considered as well. If one could control for "supply shocks" like changing governments, transient eradication efforts, etc. It would seem that something like planted domestic acreage of marijuana, or the average

Re: a proposed leading indicator II

1998-03-21 Thread valis
On Sat, 21 Mar 1998, MScoleman wrote: In a message dated 98-03-20 12:56:27 EST, you write: Increases in antidepressant use, 1995-1996, by teens and pre-teens Drug 1995 1996 Increase

Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-21 Thread Thomas Kruse
Dear Doug: On indicators. Since you put out the call for input, I've been trying to come up with suggestions that would the indicators have a healthy internatinoalist content. By that I mean they consider the role of the US in the worl (in shaping things as varied as trade polciy, cultural

Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-21 Thread Michael Perelman
You might recall that the lynching of blacks was inversely correlated with cotton prices. In bad times, scapegoating becomes more prevalent. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 916-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-21 Thread William S. Lear
On Fri, March 20, 1998 at 12:28:36 (-0500) Doug Henwood writes: Speaking of indicators, The Nation has asked me to put together a set of economic/social indicators, to be published quarterly, that would be revealing, interesting, and against the grain of conventional thinking. Any suggestions?

Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-21 Thread MScoleman
In a message dated 98-03-20 12:40:19 EST, Doug writes: Speaking of indicators, The Nation has asked me to put together a set of economic/social indicators, to be published quarterly, that would be revealing, interesting, and against the grain of conventional thinking. Yeah -- previous

Re: a proposed leading indicator -Reply

1998-03-20 Thread Louis Proyect
Tim Stroshane: How about the number of estimated homeless population per 1,000 resident population? Another indicator could perhaps include the percent of households in America paying 50 percent of their income in rent, then the percent of households at or below 50 percent of their regional

Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-20 Thread Mark Jones
Sperm counts. Doug Henwood wrote: Speaking of indicators, The Nation has asked me to put together a set of economic/social indicators, to be published quarterly, that would be revealing, interesting, and against the grain of conventional thinking. Any suggestions? Doug

Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-20 Thread valis
Doug asks: Speaking of indicators, The Nation has asked me to put together a set of economic/social indicators, to be published quarterly, that would be revealing, interesting, and against the grain of conventional thinking. Any suggestions? Harper's notorious Index has items based on all

Re: a proposed leading indicator -Reply

1998-03-20 Thread Doug Henwood
Louis Proyect wrote: Related to this is the question of the number of people living in apartments, those who are not homeless but who are miserably crowded. The NY Times ran articles last year about the horrible problems facing Mexican and other immigrants who are crammed 10 to a one-bedroom

Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-20 Thread James Devine
Sure, let's use an index of the prescription of Prozac, Ritalin, etc. But for what? as a measure of how mentally ill our society is? It's definitely true that it's not just individuals but society that's mentally ill: egged on by school bureaucrats and drug companies -- and allowed by scared and

a proposed leading indicator -Reply

1998-03-20 Thread Tim Stroshane
Doug, Glad to hear the Nation wants you to do such a regular feature. As a housing planner for Berkeley dealing with homeless policy, services and programs, I have some indicators kinda close to my heart for you to consider. How about the number of estimated homeless population per 1,000

Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-20 Thread Doug Henwood
Speaking of indicators, The Nation has asked me to put together a set of economic/social indicators, to be published quarterly, that would be revealing, interesting, and against the grain of conventional thinking. Any suggestions? Doug

Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-20 Thread Jay Hecht
Jim, I like your idea! Isn't there a "contrarinan" shool of invesment analysts who use Time covers and the sort (I think somebody uses this at Barron's). The key thing, is that economists are so full of crap (most of the time) re: "turning points" that your indicator is probably an indicator

Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-19 Thread Eugene P. Coyle
What about an index of the percent of the population on Prozac and the percent of children under 12 on Ritalin. Those are leading indicators ... but I'm not sure what they indicate. Gene Coyle ILS, that's good, has a certain, je ne sais quoi. I would also like to propose an

Re: a proposed leading indicator

1998-03-19 Thread MScoleman
ILS, that's good, has a certain, je ne sais quoi. I would also like to propose an indicator -- the HQI. Or, the Head Queen Index. As the head queen, I would look at the red sector, then the white sector, then reverse them in the looking glass, THEN I would say brilliant things like; 'retail