I'm glad that Barkley agrees with my point that we spend too much energy
manipulating data relative to the emphasis would put on quality of data.
I disagree with Barkley on the approach to econometrics. He says, if I
understand him, we should begin with the theory and then test it. Tom
Walker
--- Forwarded Message Follows ---
Date sent: Tue, 11 May 1999 12:00:16 -0700
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
From: Sid Shniad [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject:'ATTACKS ON BELGRADE ARE DRIVING US MAD'
The Daily Telegraph
--- Forwarded Message Follows ---
Date sent: Tue, 11 May 1999 12:04:22 -0700
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
From: Sid Shniad [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject:MISTAKES OF THE BLITZ ARE BEING REPEATED
The Daily Telegraph
The difference is roughly as follows. If A does X intentionally but it turns out that
even though A does not know it A is actually doing Y, that is doing something by
mistake. If A intends to do X but unintentionally causes Y that is doing something by
accident -or at least one way of doing
Drudge Report:
In Beijing on Tuesday, Chinese Vice-Premier Qian Qichen told the Russian
President's special envoy for Yugoslavia Viktor Chernomyrdin that China
and Russia share identical views on many issues including Kosovo,
according to Chinese news reports. Views that were shared during a
Just so people know,
Michael Bliss (see article below) is a right-wing history professor (or as many
of us on the local activist scene like to label him - the myth maker of Western
civilization) at the University of Toronto. The article is written for a
right-wing newspaper, which is owner by a
Clinton OKs Chinese Rocket Launch
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Clinton removed
the last roadblock Monday from the launch of a
Chinese rocket carrying a satellite into space
next
month for the U.S.-led
There are some confusion. I thought it was Mike Head, then was
corrected. Now I stand corrected again. Thanks Steven Matthews.
As for Allan Isaac, the article athored by Mike Head rather than Zhang,
is defintiely US propaganda. Now do you feel silly?
Henry C.K. Liu
Steven Matthews wrote:
This is an explanation? To find where a particular address was some
guesswork was involved? I can't
really believe that the so-called extrapolation, that turns out to be 4
blocks off could even possibly be the method used to find out where the
supply depot was. At the very most all these clowns
Mark Jones had compared Milosevic to Castro on the Marxism list, which
prompted this comment from Dennis Grammenos. Mark's reply follows.
Forgive me, it's early in the morning and I just had to double-check to
make sure that I read your message right.
Solidarity,
Dennis
Then this is your
Here is a little analysis by famous economist Mr. Bob Kuttner.
"Bob" from what I understand was a pretty good guy while a student at
Oberlin College. I understand he asked a lot of questions; and is
rumored to have had an original idea or two, if you know what I
mean.;o) Also, "Bob" mayhave
My view is that Sasser is over-optimistic, but that is an ambassador's
job.
The violence will subside, because China realizes it would not be in its
interest to project a picture of losing control over domestic order, but
the demonstrations will continue until the US/NATO accedes to China's 4
Walker:
The critique has been that econometrics CAN'T show that the economic data
are or aren't "consistent with one's theory".
Devine:
No, the critique of econometrics (or at least the informed critique) says
we can't prove anything using econometrics.
Lakatos (on Duhem-Quine thesis):
'no
I think that this kind of thing [the bombing of the Chinese embassy] was
inevitable, given the premises of the war. The whole war was based on
technological hubris, the idea that "we" can use our satellites to target
the satanic smirk on Milosevic's mug and then "we" can use our "smart"
weapons
Tom Walker wrote:
Thanks for serving up yet another example of the teflon effect, Jim. The
critique has been that econometrics CAN'T show that the economic data are or
aren't "consistent with one's theory" -- especially if one's theory deals
with non-trivial issues (such as the possibility of
SLATE MORNING DELIVERY: Tues., May 11, 1999 (copyright 1999, Microsoft)
today's papers
Gulfstream War Syndrome
By Scott Shuger
The LAT [LA TIMES] and WP [Washington POST] lead with Yugoslavia's
announcement yesterday of a partial withdrawal of troops and police from
Kosovo, and NATO's quick
Doug writes: At the Value Club's session at the EEA meetings in March
1998, Bertell Ollman gave a paper whose message essentially was that
economists - then-present company obviously not excepted - had no idea how
alienated they were. In other words, value theory and/or econometrics can
be read
Michael Perelman wrote:
Nobody needed econometrics to disprove the stability. Monetarism went
into the
tank when Volcker applied it and the economy tanked.
Besides, Volcker was using monetarism as a cover for his real intent, which
was to jack up interest rates to 21% and create a recession
Jim Devine wrote:
If econometrics and/or abstract value theory is a small part of a person's
less alienated (or disalienating) life project, then it need not be a
symptom of alienation. For example, if one does econometrics and/or
abstract value theory and _also_ produces hard-hitting leftist
Tuesday May 11 1999
European Union-China summit scrapped
DAVID MURPHY in Beijing, FOO CHOY PENG in
Shanghai and Agencies
The European Union-China summit, due
to take place in Beijing on Thursday, has
been
At 08:09 AM 5/11/99 -0700, you wrote:
Jim Devine wrote:
If econometrics and/or abstract value theory is a small part of a person's
less alienated (or disalienating) life project, then it need not be a
symptom of alienation. For example, if one does econometrics and/or
abstract value theory and
Pen-l:
It's hard to believe the triple-missile attack on the Chinese embassy in
Belgrade was an error. In any case, these NATO missile strikes serve the
class interests of American and Chinese rulers, who are mobilizing their
populations under attack by the social forces of global capitalism
Henry Liu raised a point that I've been thinking about quite a bit these
past four days. U.S. economic hegemony -- and arrogance -- rests on a
foundation of a massive and chronic current account deficit. This seems
paradoxical. But it makes a kind of
--- Forwarded Message Follows ---
Date sent: Mon, 10 May 1999 17:14:14 -0700
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
From: Sid Shniad [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject:LAWYERS CHARGE NATO LEADERS BEFORE WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL
PRESS RELEASE
--- Forwarded Message Follows ---
Date sent: Mon, 10 May 1999 17:41:55 -0700
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
From: Sid Shniad [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject:CLINTONS SEARCH FOR THE APPEARANCE OF
VICTORY
--- Forwarded Message Follows ---
Date sent: Mon, 10 May 1999 17:44:29 -0700
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
From: Sid Shniad [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject:EUROPEAN NATO MEMBERS SAY, "ENOUGH"
--- Forwarded Message Follows ---
Date sent: Mon, 10 May 1999 17:12:05 -0700
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
From: Sid Shniad [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject:'Degrading' America - The Nation, May 24, 1999
The Nation
Jim Devine wrote:
I think that econometrics has been misused over and over again (and will be
misused in the future). It's also not a "neutral tool," since it treat the
empirical world as simply data. But with a little sophistication, it's
better than tables of numbers or charts. It seems to me
Jim Devine wrote:
At 10:42 PM 5/10/99 -0700, Peter D wrote:
...We are kidding ourselves if we think that the reason there are fewer
research scandals in economics than, say, medicine is that economists are
more honest and scrupulous. ...
One of the big scandals of the 1980s was Martin
Ken,
Reportedly there are vacant lots adjacent
to the Chinese embassy. So, it was viewed as
not being a problem for "collateral damage"
when checked for that.
Ugh.
Barkley Rosser
-Original Message-
From: Ken Hanly [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date:
Tom writes: Jim's "root-and-branch" [rejection of econometrics by Tom] is
made of straw. My dismissal is of econometrics as it is actually practiced
and abused, not of the possible usefulness of particular econometric
techniques if they can be rescued from the overarching context of misuse.
If
Natural science may be corrupt - a servant of power, money, and orthodoxy -
but I don't think you could sustain this kind of untruth for 30 years in
physics or biology, could you?
Economics is a more ideological subject than biology or physics, partly
because economics is so much more crucial to
Michael Perelman wrote:
Nobody needed econometrics to disprove the stability. Monetarism went
into the
tank when Volcker applied it and the economy tanked.
Doug writes:
Besides, Volcker was using monetarism as a cover for his real intent, which
was to jack up interest rates to 21% and create a
I don't know if DiNardo is watching this or
not, but another issue that should be dealt with
in the JEP piece regards the "panel data revolution"
that has swept a lot of the policy-oriented micro
econometric research in recent years. This combines
both cross-section and time-series
Financial Times (London)
November 7, 1996, Thursday USA EDITION 1
Milosevic leads retreat to communism: The Serb president is discarding his
nationalist colours in a calculated alliance with Marxist-Leninists,
writes Laura Silber:
Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, shunning his
The Washington Post
January 21, 1996, Sunday, Final Edition
Growing Clout Of First Lady Divides Serbs; Milosevic's Wife Shapes New
Communist Bloc
BYLINE: Christine Spolar, Washington Post Foreign Service
A single posy helped pull the plug on a TV show here on New Year's Eve and
tipped off
The Washington Post, January 21, 1996, Sunday, Final Edition
"MIRJANA MARKOVIC'S UNWAVERING BELIEF IN COMMUNISM -- SHE HAS TAKEN
MUCH-PUBLICIZED TRIPS TO BEIJING AND MOSCOW IN THE PAST YEAR -- IS SEEN AS
A THREAT BY SOME ECONOMISTS WHO HAVE STUDIED SERBIA'S PLIGHT OVER THE PAST
FIVE YEARS."
IMHO the fascination with genetics and disease causation seems very
ideological. Perhaps once the human genome mapping is complete, and
widespread evaluation research shows genetic predispositions don't mean much
(statistically) for most adverse health conditions, we might be able to move
away
Louis,
H, this is the outcome of your whisky-soaked
gabfest in London with Mark Jones, :-)?
1) Castro never started a war with his neighbors
that led to over 200,000 people getting killed like
His Excellency did in Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
2) Two nations of the former
I have added a necessary phrase to each of Rod's causes [in brackets]
Rod Hay wrote:
It appears that the debate on the bombing of the chinese embassey comes down
to two positions.
1. they were stupid. [as well as malevolent]
2. they were crazy. [as well as malevolent]
Doug, are you sure. Many studies suggest that BGH is dangerous; the same for
apsertine. I don't think that those studies will budge the current concensus.
What is new is that biology is now more than ever a commercial science that
requires commercial funding -- moving it into the handmaiden
From: "jay wisdom" [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: Wed, 05 May 1999 20:39:57 PDT
Subject: [BRC-MUMIA] Fwd: MILLIONS FOR MUMIA -- MESSAGE FROM THE ORGANIZERS
"Every generation has a moral assignment.
Ours is to save the life of Mumia Abu-Jamal" -- Ossie Davis
A MESSAGE FROM THE ORGANIZERS
The next
Jim Devine wrote:
If you reject econometrics as it is actually practiced (in most cases) and
that something can be gotten from econometrics, we agree. But the fact that
you use (and have used) the word "dismissal" suggests the root-and-branch
interpretation.
Huh? My use of the word dismissal
In biology, see the hoax perpetrated by Sir Cyril Burt on intelligence testing and
heredity discussed by Stephen Jay Gould in _The Mismeasure of Man_. It lasted for some
number of decades. Also, there was the Piltdown hoax in biological anthropology.
Charles Brown
Doug Henwood [EMAIL
Jim Devine wrote:
Economics is a more ideological subject than biology or physics, partly
because economics is so much more crucial to legitimating the system. That
is, economics' corruption is more systematic: individual biologists sell
out to drug industry, but the dominant school of
forwarded by Michael Hoover
The Orlando Sentinel's San Juan Bureau has been doing good coverage of the
growing movement to stop the U.S. Navy from using the island of Vieques as
a bombing range. Information on the Puerto Rican Independence Party:
http://www.pip.org.pr and
Barkley writes: Then in 1968 LBJ attempted to fight inflationary pressures
by instituting a one-year income tax surcharge. It failed ... Of course,
ironically, Lucas actually explained why the LBJ tax increase did not
stifle inflation. Policymakers relying on a structural econometric model
for
Biology (of the Shockley-Jensen-Murray type) has played and continues to play an
important role in the ideology of racist and sexist legitimation of the system.
Economics can demonstrate the persistent differences in economic status, but
differerent forms of racism and sexism "rationalize"
It used to be that the United Nations was a thorn in the side of
multinational corporations. No more.
Earlier this year, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan called for a
partnership to be forged between the UN and global business. To defeat an
emerging backlash against economic globalization, big
How could the bombing of the Chinese embassy have been a mistake?
By Mike Head (?) 10 May 1999
(received via e-mail)
After two days of varied official accounts, the least credible
explanation for Friday night's NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in
Belgrade is that it was a pure accident. On
Because the distinction between war and murder is that war is supposed to be
a conflict of over political differences rather than personal disputes.
Soldiers are institutional elements of war and the killing of them,
regardless of heir personal views, are acceptable within the rules of war.
Charles,
1) I believe that I have been using the term "mistake'
not "accident" with respect to the Chinese embassy
bombing. Certainly that is what I have meant, even if
I have said otherwise. I have repeatedly said, that,
mistake or accident, the bombing of the Chinese
embassy was not
"J. Barkley Rosser, Jr." [EMAIL PROTECTED] 05/11/99 04:43PM
Charles,
1) I believe that I have been using the term "mistake'
not "accident" with respect to the Chinese embassy
bombing. Certainly that is what I have meant, even if
I have said otherwise.
CB: I'll bite. What is the
Charles wrote:
Biology (of the Shockley-Jensen-Murray type) has played and continues to
play an important role in the ideology of racist and sexist legitimation of
the system.
But most biologists (probably the vast majority) reject Shockley, Burt,
Jensen, Murray, et al. The review of THE BELL
"J. Barkley Rosser, Jr." [EMAIL PROTECTED] 05/11/99 01:48PM
BTW, for those who come up with half-baked probability
calculations and then declare that this could not have been
a mistake, I would remind you that the chances of the Three
Mile Island accident happening were supposedly
Econometrics is neither the source of
scientific nirvana nor the ultimate in deluded
alienation. It has its usefulness if kept in
perspective. By itself it neither proves nor
disproves anything. However, just as repeated
findings pointing in a certain direction by
experimental
Charles Brown wrote:
In biology, see the hoax perpetrated by Sir Cyril Burt on intelligence
testing and heredity discussed by Stephen Jay Gould in _The Mismeasure of
Man_. It lasted for some number of decades. Also, there was the Piltdown
hoax in biological anthropology.
In economics, there is
This is too close to a personal attack and unproductive for discussion.
--
Henry C K Liu wrote:
One would think that everyone with the education and intelligence to
participate on lists such as lbo/pen-l would understand the moral difference
between war and murder.
It appears that the debate on the bombing of the chinese embassey comes down
to two positions.
1. they were stupid.
2. they were crazy.
The evidence and past experience could support either hypothesis.
Rod Hay
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
The History of Economic Thought Archives
Tom Walker wrote:
At some point in the game, the other players have to ask, "Am I just
throwing good money after bad?" The events of May 7, 1999 and after have
given the world -- not least, China -- a clear sign of the U.S. lack of good
faith. The knee-jerk response of the Clinton administration
Michael,
Why would they "notify the Chinese embassy in advance?"
The database that the NIMA was using, presumably left
over from the old Defense Mapping Agency who made the
map in 1992 that this was based on, still had the Chinese
embassy located in its more than four year old location.
So,
Ken,
According to this morning's Washington Post,
the map was from 1992. The NIMA had produced
a newer satellite image map, but it did not have
street addresses or building IDs on it. Some clunk,
apparently at CIA, used the address for the depository
and mistakenly put it on the Chinese
Friedman has introduced a Declaration of the Right of Warmongers:
whenever an aggressor launches an undeclared war on another sovereign
nation, it has the right to hit any third party dumb enough to stick around.
The hawks has dropped all pretenses of moral righteousness in a undeclared
war
How could the bombing of the Chinese embassy have been a mistake?
Author: "Zhang Jianyi" [EMAIL PROTECTED]
10 May 1999
(received via e-mail)
After two days of varied official accounts, the least credible
explanation for Friday night's NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in
Belgrade is that it
Ambassador Sasser: "I think wiser heads will prevail on both sides. . ."
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., a candidate for
president, said he would take a tough line with
China, asking officials to use their security
forces to prevent attacks on the U.S. Embassy.
``I would call up the premier of China
Tom Walker wrote: The critique has been that econometrics CAN'T show
that the economic data are or aren't "consistent with one's theory".
saith I: No, the critique of econometrics (or at least the informed
critique) says we can't prove anything using econometrics.
Tom quotes Lakatos (on
At 10:42 PM 5/10/99 -0700, Peter D wrote:
...We are kidding ourselves if we think that the reason there are fewer
research scandals in economics than, say, medicine is that economists are
more honest and scrupulous. ...
One of the big scandals of the 1980s was Martin Feldstein's erroneous use
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MAY 10, 1999:
Nonfarm payroll employment grew by a healthy 234,000, seasonally adjusted,
in April, as hourly earnings continue to increase, but at a reduced rate.
The nation's jobless rate edged up a statistically insignificant 0.1
percentage point to 4.3 percent,
CIA Explains What Went Wrong
By JOHN DIAMOND Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) -- In an extraordinary
admission of error, the CIA said Monday that
outdated maps, a lack of communication within
--- Forwarded Message Follows ---
Date sent: Tue, 11 May 1999 12:00:25 -0700
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
From: Sid Shniad [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject:ALLIES PAINTED AS BUMBLING BULLIES
The Daily Telegraph
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] (James K. Galbraith)
To: POST-KEYNESIAN THOUGHT [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Economists' Call to Stop the Bombing
Pkt friends,
I would like to call your attention to a statement of prominent economists
and some others associated Economists Allied for Arms Reduction
This message is forwarded from the Support Committee for Maquiladora Workers:
URGENT NEWS FLASH!!!
On the morning of May 11, 150 members of the Tijuana and Baja California police
removed the strike flags at the Han Young factory, and escorted a group of
strike-
breakers into the plant. This
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