BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 1996 RELEASED TODAY: Unemployment rates for most states showed little change in October, as 45 states and the District of Columbia recorded shifts of 0.3 percentage point or less. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 38 states over the month .... __The economy will grow at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in 1997, and inflation will advance at a well-behaved 2.9 percent, according to a survey of the National Association of Business Economists. As a five-year forecast, the organization expects the economy to behave in much the same way as it has in the last five years. The NABE panel of economists that made the assessment became a little more optimistic on inflation that it had been in September, racheting down slightly its 1997 forecast from 3 to 2.9 percent. An important reason inflation should remain in check is that businesses have not been able to make price increases stick, the NABE president said. Although inflation as measured by the CPI remains benign, the economists apparently believe this measure overstates price increases. The Advisory Commission on the CPI -- appointed by the Senate-- is due to make its final report to the Senate Finance Committee on December 4. NABE members said they expect the commission to say the CPI overstates inflation by about 1 percent each year. Unemployment should remain low, with the economists predicting the jobless rate would edge up to 5.5 percent in 1997, from 5.4 percent in 1996. The panel predicted nonfarm payroll employment would rise 2 percent in 1996 and 1.5 percent in 1997 ....(Daily Labor Report, page A-5). __The U.S. economy is expected to grow 2.3 percent this year and next, according to a survey of 44 professional forecasters by the National Association of Business Economists. Separately, the Conference Board said it expected consumers to boost holiday spending 5.5 percent this year (The Washington Post, page D1). __The unemployment rate can rest between 4.5 percent and 5.5 percent without fueling inflation, a panel of corporate economists concluded. More than 80 percent of forecasters surveyed by the National Association of Business Economists said that the so-called nonadcelerating inflation rate of unemployment has fallen in the past decade ....Encouraged by the apparent easing of the old trade-off between full employment and inflation, business economists maintained a rosy outlook for next year and beyond (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). The CBO is projecting a mild recession by 2002, putting it at odds with White House forecasters ....The CBO's forecast, still in the drafting stage, is likely to take into account the high historic odds that the economy will fall into a recession in the next five years by showing employment and long-term growth at less than the economy's full capacity, the agency's director, June O'Neill, said in an interview. While the agency does not foresee a recession in the next 18 months, the chances of a downturn after that are high enough that Congress should plan for it, she said ....(Washington Times, page B7). Almost one of every three members of the employable workforce worldwide is unemployed and the situation is worsening, the International Labor Organization warns. Growing numbers of "working poor," totaling as many as 1 billion people worldwide, pose a growing threat to economic stability, the agency said in its annual World Employment Report released in Geneva and in Washington, D.C. While the overwhelming majority of jobless is in poor countries, developed countries also suffer from unemployment. The report cited figures produced by the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development showing at least 34 million people are unemployed in its member states (Daily Labor Report, page A-1; Wall Street Journal, page A4). Even without "pay equity" provisions in collective bargaining agreements, belonging to a union helps narrow the wage gap for women and minorities, according to the National Committee on Pay Equity -- a nonprofit pay equity activist group (Daily Labor Report, page A-13). The Wall Street Journal's "Work Life" column (page 1) says that: Time off for volunteer work grows in corporate favor. One company will match time given to charitable groups with cash donations. ...Technical skills don't guarantee good managers, says an executive development firm. In a 12-year study of over 2,500 senior managers, it found that 25 percent of those on the rise in high-tech companies lacked "people skills". ...The fastest route up the corporate ladder is through the marketing side, a search firm says, after a survey of 100 companies and 75 executives. The Health Insurance Association of America found in a study that employers of all sizes have reduced the number of alternative health plans available to their workers over the last year. Among mid-size employers, 32 percent now offer their workers only one plan (The New York Times, November 24, page 1E).
