Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-19 Thread Jim Devine
me: If the share of profit in total income and thus the rate of profit fall, that almost always depresses fixed investment spending and leads to a general decline in the economy. raghu wrote: This may have been the case with previous business cycles, but in the present upturn,

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-18 Thread Sandwichman
My question would be how to avoid or mitigate the human suffering and social/economic isolation of unemployment, not how to get the growth numbers back in positive territory. There is a big, BIG assumption made in these discussions that economic stimulus is some sort of panacea or at the very

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-18 Thread Michael Perelman
Although I certainly favor redistribution, by which suggests that the United States is not necessarily rich enough. I am pretty sure that I am in the minority here, but I suspect that our commercial this interpretation of riches does not really constitute what I would consider to be riches. I

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-18 Thread Jim Devine
raghu wrote: Picking up on that theme, I am thinking of a very specific and well-defined interpretation of 'riches': GDP growth. Afterall all the fuss about the credit crunch recently is because of the universal fear of a recession - defined as a lack of GDP growth. My question is who cares

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-18 Thread raghu
On Jan 18, 2008 1:27 PM, Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: all else constant, a fall in GDP is good for the environment, just as the decline of US-based steel production improved the air in Gary, IN and Pittsburgh, PA. (Of course the job situations in those places went to Hell.) But it's

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-18 Thread Jim Devine
Sandwichman wrote: My question would be how to avoid or mitigate the human suffering and social/economic isolation of unemployment, not how to get the growth numbers back in positive territory. There is a big, BIG assumption made in these discussions that economic stimulus is some sort of

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-18 Thread raghu
On Jan 18, 2008 10:11 AM, Michael Perelman [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Although I certainly favor redistribution, by which suggests that the United States is not necessarily rich enough. I am pretty sure that I am in the minority here, but I suspect that our commercial this interpretation of

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-18 Thread Max B. Sawicky
advantage of opportunities that come up, even though they are limited. From: Sandwichman [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: 2008/01/18 Fri AM 10:48:18 CST To: PEN-L@SUS.CSUCHICO.EDU Subject: Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time My question would be how to avoid or mitigate the human suffering

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-18 Thread raghu
On Jan 18, 2008 8:48 AM, Sandwichman [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: While I can appreciate the political expediency of such an approach in terms of building a cross-class consensus and coalition, I never hear any substantive defense of the proposition that growth is all you need. At some point in

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-18 Thread Leigh Meyers
On Jan 18, 2008 8:48 AM, Sandwichman [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: May I ask, how might the preconditions for human emancipation and improvement differ from the preconditions for restoring economic expansion? IMO, at this juncture in human history, de-centralization, the move to small community

[PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-18 Thread Charles Brown
Sandwichman May I ask, how might the preconditions for human emancipation and improvement differ from the preconditions for restoring economic expansion? ^ CB: Is there any other theory except the same old remedy that the preconditions for human emancipation are to expropriate the

[PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-17 Thread Louis Proyect
Washington Post, Wednesday, January 16, 2008; A15 A Different Recession The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time By Harold Meyerson In a normal recession, the to-do list is clear. Copies of Keynes are dusted off, the Fed lowers interest rates, the president and Congress cut taxes and hike

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-17 Thread Louis Proyect
Max B. Sawicky wrote: This piffle is part of a pattern coming from The American Prospect/Center for America's Future (Borosage) gang, god love 'em, to the effect that Keynesian counter-cyclical policy is for wimps and when the topic of trhe recession comes up we need to focus on the long-run

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-17 Thread Max B. Sawicky
Oh of course of course. I stand corrected. I honestly was a bit surprised to see Myerson so pessimistic about Keynesian pump-priming. He is of course correct. It doesn't work, least of all when there is a serious slump. Btw, somebody asked me what I thought of DeLong's nod to Obama's

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-17 Thread Jim Devine
Louis Proyect wrote: I honestly was a bit surprised to see Myerson so pessimistic about Keynesian pump-priming. He is of course correct. It doesn't work, least of all when there is a serious slump. Btw, somebody asked me what I thought of DeLong's nod to Obama's pump-priming scheme to send out

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-17 Thread Max B. Sawicky
This piffle is part of a pattern coming from The American Prospect/Center for America's Future (Borosage) gang, god love 'em, to the effect that Keynesian counter-cyclical policy is for wimps and when the topic of trhe recession comes up we need to focus on the long-run not so say eternal

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-17 Thread Jim Devine
me: Obama's $250 scheme is definitely too weak. But what is wrong with a _larger_ priming of the pump? (for instance, how about the idea of not just extra unemployment insurance benefits (and the like) but also government investment in infrastructure and green technology?) Louis Proyect

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-17 Thread Louis Proyect
Jim Devine wrote: Obama's $250 scheme is definitely too weak. But what is wrong with a _larger_ priming of the pump? (for instance, how about the idea of not just extra unemployment insurance benefits (and the like) but also government investment in infrastructure and green technology?) If

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-17 Thread Michael Perelman
I believe that it was David McCord Wright, who claimed that there was not much pump priming during the Depression because state local government cut back on spending. Maybe someone recalls the reference. Then the military spending kicked in -- Michael Perelman Economics Department

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-17 Thread Jim Devine
E. Cary Brown argued (using the concept of the full-employment budget deficit) that US government deficits during the 1930s were almost entirely due to low GDP, which hurt tax revenues, rather than being due to government efforts to stimulate the economy. On Jan 17, 2008 6:17 PM, Michael Perelman

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-17 Thread Doug Henwood
On Jan 17, 2008, at 9:20 PM, Jim Devine wrote: E. Cary Brown argued (using the concept of the full-employment budget deficit) that US government deficits during the 1930s were almost entirely due to low GDP, which hurt tax revenues, rather than being due to government efforts to stimulate the

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-17 Thread Jim Devine
other people have re-done Brown's analysis, replicating his results. Sorry, I don't have a reference. On Jan 17, 2008 6:28 PM, Doug Henwood [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On Jan 17, 2008, at 9:20 PM, Jim Devine wrote: E. Cary Brown argued (using the concept of the full-employment budget deficit)

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-17 Thread Max B. Sawicky
There's more in the Obama plan than the $250. Investment takes longer -- the spend out rate is lower, the grander the project. It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, but better IMO would be unemployment benefits, Food Stamps, payroll tax credit, aid to state govs (all together).

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-17 Thread Max B. Sawicky
The highest deficit in the 30s was 5.5% of GDP, in the face of ginormous unemployment. In 1940s it was as much as 30% of GDP. Now that's some pump priming. Louis Proyect wrote: Jim Devine wrote: Obama's $250 scheme is definitely too weak. But what is wrong with a _larger_ priming of the

Re: [PEN-L] The Old Remedies Won't Work This Time

2008-01-17 Thread Max B. Sawicky
Right. In principle what you'd need to know is the full employment budget deficit. That would tell you how much the Gov was leaning against the depression. I don't have those #s. Plus as Jim pointed out if the central bank is fighting fiscal policy, which it did in the 30s for at least a while,