http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/parts-of-persian-gulf-could-be-too-hot-for-humans-by-centurys-end_562e8d32e4b00aa54a4ac233
Parts Of Persian Gulf Could Be Too Hot For Humans By Century's End
AP
By SETH BORENSTEIN
Posted: 10/26/2015 04:37 PM EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) — If carbon dioxide emissions continue at their current
pace, by the end of century parts of the Persian Gulf will sometimes be
just too hot for the human body to tolerate, a new study says.
How hot? The heat index — which combines heat and humidity — may hit 165
to 170 degrees (74 to 77 Celsius) for at least six hours, according to
numerous computer simulations in the new study. That's so hot that the
human body can't get rid of heat. The elderly and ill are hurt most by
current heat waves, but the future is expected to be so hot that
healthy, fit people would be endangered, health experts say.
"You can go to a wet sauna and put the temperature up to 35 (Celsius or
95 degrees Fahrenheit) or so. You can bear it for a while, now think of
that at an extended exposure" of six or more hours, said study co-author
Elfatih Eltahir, an MIT environmental engineering professor.
While humans have been around, Earth has not seen that type of
prolonged, oppressive combination of heat and humidity, Eltahir said.
But with the unique geography and climate of the Persian Gulf and
increased warming projected if heat-trapping gas emissions continue to
rise at current rates, it will happen every decade or so by the end of
the century, according to the study published Monday in the journal
Nature Climate Change.
This would be the type of heat that would make deadly heat wave in
Europe in 2003 that killed more than 70,000 people "look like a
refreshing day or event," said study co-author Jeremy Pal of Loyola
Marymount University
It would still be rare, and cities such as Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Doha
wouldn't quite be uninhabitable, thanks to air conditioning. But for
people living and working outside or those with no air conditioning, it
would be intolerable, said Eltahir and Pal. While Mecca won't be quite
as hot, the heat will likely still cause many deaths during the annual
hajj pilgrimage, Eltahir said.
"Some of the scariest prospects from a changing clime involve conditions
completely outside the range of human experience," Carnegie Institute
for Science climate researcher Chris Field, who wasn't part of the
study, wrote in an email. "If we don't limit climate change to avoid
extreme heat or mugginess, the people in these regions will likely need
to find other places to live."
Said Dr. Howard Frumkin, dean of the University of Washington school of
public health, who wasn't part of the research: "When the ambient
temperatures are extremely high, as projected in this paper, then
exposed people can and do die. The implication s of this paper for the
Gulf region are frightening."
But if the world limits future heat-trapping gas emissions — even close
to the amount pledged recently by countries around the world ahead of
climate talks later this year in Paris — that intolerable level of heat
can be avoided, Eltahir said.
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